Italian budget cycle and macroeconomic projections

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1 STUDY VISIT ALBANIAN MINISTRY OF FINANCE Italian budget cycle and macroeconomic projections Silvia D Andrea, Maria Rita Ebano, Francesco Felici, Rita Ferrari, Valeria Ferroni, Cristina Quaglierini

2 New rules in Europe Several lines of intervention - the crisis resulted from multiple failures in policy: I. Fiscal discipline: strengthening EU fiscal surveillance and ensuring discipline in good time II. Competitiveness and macroeconomic imbalances: new tools with broader scope III. Permanent European financial institution to deal with (future) crises IV. Financial regulation: global dimension and the FSB, European authorities 2

3 A new economic governance A reinforced economic agenda with closer EU surveillance: Europe 2020 strategy; Euro Plus Pact; Tighter EU surveillance of economic and fiscal policies as part of the Stability and Growth Pact and through new tools to tackle macro-economic imbalances; A new working method - the European semester - to discuss economic and budgetary priorities at the same time every year. 3

4 Macroeconomic surveillance The Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP): the scoreboard: a set of indicators for an early detection of external or internal imbalances (e.g. private and public sector debt, current accounts, real effective exchange rates) alert mechanism: thresholds defined for each indicator, but not a mechanical interpretation (country-specific qualitative analysis) The Euro Plus Pact for stronger economic policy coordination: 4 goals: competitiveness, employment, sustainability of public finance, financial stability Concrete policy commitments and monitoring (indicators) 4

5 The European Semester and the new Italian planning cycle The European Semester The Italian planning cycle (Law no. 39/2011) January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual Grow th Survey by European Commission Endors em ent by European Council of reform s'priorities for each MS SP and NRP to European Commission by end of April Assessment on NRPs and SP by European Commission Reccomendations to MS based on SP and NRP by European Commission The European Council formally approves the eccomendations Economic and Financial Document (DEF): i) U pdate of S tability P rogram; ii) P ublic Finance Analisys and trends; iii) National Reform Program Update to the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) by 20 September Stability Law by 15 October 5

6 Recent innovations and changes European Semester Fiscal Federalism: increased responsability of regional and local governments Enactment of a new framework law, Law No. 196/2009 modified by Law no.39/2011 which regulates planning, accounting and monitoring of Italy s public finances 6

7 Main features of the new Law Increased EFFICIENCY of resource allocation Budget by MISSIONS and PROGRAMS Parliament votes on large aggregates of public spending and gives the executive more discretionary power. For each program there is single responsibility Programs are the new unit of parlamentary vote Increased ACCOUNTABILITY Increased HARMONIZATION of accounting systems Creation of a UNIQUE DATA BASE More efficient comparisons amongst and within different administrative levels Implementation of COFOG classification All entities of the public administration have to include their own data Valuable sources of information accessible to all parties involved in the definition and the monitoring of public finances Increased COMPLIANCE Besides financial accounting methods also ECONOMIC INDICATORS Use of indicators in order to highlight economic performance Increased SKILLS 7

8 DEF Economic and Financial Document The planning of policy scenario targets has been brought forward to April, with the new Economic and Financial Document (DEF) consisting in three parts: i) the Update of the Stability Programme; ii) Public Finance Analysis and Trends; iii) the National Reform Programme. The submission of the DEF to the Italian Parliament takes place each year no later than 10th of April while the DEF is presented to the European Commission by the end of April (Section I and III). 8

9 Update of the Stability Programme: contents Macroeconomic Scenario According to the rules of the Code of Conduct, it provides international and domestic frameworks over the projection horizon. Growth implications of major structural reforms Public Finance Updates New Public Finance policy scenario Fiscal consolidation amount needed to reach the updated targets Structural Balance Public debt policy scenario Budgetary implication of the reforms of the NRP Sensitivity analysis (to economic growth and interest rates) Special chapters Sustainability of Public finance (impact of ageing on public expenditure and debt over a 50-year horizon). 9

10 Public Finance Analysis and Trends:contents Macroeconomic Scenario Provides international and domestic frameworks over the projection horizon Public Finance Updates General Government accounts and Public sector cash accounts at unchanged legislation (for Central Government, Local Governments and Social security). Forecasts at unchanged legislation are produced also for the main categories of expenditures. Public and state sector debt analysis Satistical Annex on State budget and Public sector consolidated cash accounts Annex A Methodological Guide to the Ministry of Economy and Finance projections exercise at unchanged legislation 10

11 Italy s National Reform Programme (NRP) The General framework Main policy areas: Labour market and pension system; Reduction of public expenditure; Product markets and competition; Innovation and human capital; Federalism; Energy and the environment; Infrastructures and growth The macroeconomic impact of reforms Annex (Grid) The simulation exercise is aimed at evaluating on quantitative grounds the gains from reforms in terms of output, employment, consumption and investment growth. The simulation analysis has been conducted using both the QUEST III model with endogeneous growth calibrated for Italy and the Italian Treasury Econometric Model ITEM. A distinct description of each reform is presented, with the relevant legislation, a description of how the measure is designed, its current stage of implementation and its impact on public finance 11

12 Update of the Economic and Financial Document: contents Macroeconomic Scenario Public Finance Updates Measures Annex International and domestic macroeconomic framework over the forecast horizon General Government net borrowing, state sector and public sector cash accounts balance, Public debt and structural balances. Net Balance to be financed; Planned State Budget A special chapter describes the European Council Recomendations to Italy Fiscal adjustment in detail (Central Governement, Local Governement, Social security funds) Possible Enabling Acts Contents of Domestic Stability Pact and of Convergence Pact Report on investment expenditure 12

13 Draft Stability Law The Draft Budget Law presents qualitatives and quantitative measures in order to reach the objectives set out in the Update of the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) Submission to the Parliament: 15 October Aims For the three-year projection horizon, the document containts the measures needed for the attainment of the targets set out in the Update of the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) Contents The maximum level of the balance to be financed, of net of borrowing, of loan reimbursements and of recourse to market; Changes in the tax rates (without prejudice to the provisions of Law no. 42/2009 on local government taxes) The total amount allocated for public employment contract renewals; Legislative corrective measures that entail greater than foreseen outlays; Other merely quantitative adjustments; Any rules necessary to ensure the implementation of the Domestic Stability Pact and of the Convergence Pact so as to coordinate adjustment measures across subsectors of general government Stability Law by 31 December 13

14 Report on the Italian economic situation The Report on the Italian Economic Situation is the oldest planning document in Italy (Law no. 639/1949) Before the innovation introduced by the Law no.39/2011, the Report was composed by three volumes covering almost all economic indicators (Real economy; Labour market and population; Public finance; Public health and pension expenditure) The new Law set up a Commission in order to reform the document and to simplify it According to the Commission s works a new simplified version will be published for the year 2010 by the end of September/beginning of October. 14

15 Analysis and forecasting instruments at MEF Each Department of MEF provides analysis and forecasts on macroeconomic topics. Several economic models are used. In particular, the Treasury Department uses: Judgement Based Model (JBM) for the Italian economy; Econometric model for the Italian economy (ITEM); DSGE model; Statistic models for short-term forecasts and other short-term models; Interest expenditure model 15

16 The process: technical steps Fixing of exogenous variables Renormalization: taking into account the most recent data Run forecast with different models Set a starting baseline for the macroeconomic projections Iterate with Public finance forecasts and budget measures Include the recent developments in revenues and expenditures From the unchanged legislation to the budget measures Produce potential output estimates and structural balance indicators 16

17 The process: institutional procedures All units of the Directorate are involved The common view of the Directorate: the Working group on modeling and forecasting The interaction with other Departments: General Accounting Department (Ragioneria Generale dello Stato) Finance Department (Dipartimento delle Politiche fiscali) Feedback from the Public Debt Management Directorate Interest expenditure model 17

18 FOCUS NATIONAL REFORM PROGRAMME 18

19 How difficult is to draw a clear and transparent National Reform Program? The italian approach 19

20 The new European Governance European semester Annual Growth Survey Euro-Plus Pact 20

21 NRP and structural reforms All structural reforms in the NRP are made for realising the following objectives: stimulating competitiveness; stimulating employment; concurring further on sustainability of public finances; reinforcing financial stability. 21

22 National Reform Programme Large number of actions in order to implement the measures identified by the European Commission in the Annual Growth Survey at the national level. Actions aiming at achieving the national targets of Europe-2020 strategy. Actions to overcome bottlenecks that still constitute an impediment to the growth of the country. Measures consistent with the coordination of economic policies resulting from Euro-Plus Pact. 22

23 European targets and recommendations AGSs Recommendations Bottlenecks Targets 23

24 Key: you need to create order 24

25 First Step: the Grid For each measure we provide information concerning: The relevant legislation Some descriptive features The stage of implementation The stage of advancement The impact on public finance A classification based upon objectives and priorities defined at the European level Griglia 25

26 Ordering: Bottlenecks Bottlenecks Fiscal consolidation and public debt Wage competitiveness and productivity Product market competition and administrative efficiency Innovation- R&D Reducing regional disparities Upgrading of network infrastructure 26

27 Actions counting: Bottlenecks 27

28 Ordering: EU-2020 targets Renewable sources Employment rate Energy efficiency EU-2020 targets School drop out Tertiary education R&D Risk of poverty 28

29 Actions counting : EU-2020 targets 29

30 Ordering: AGS priorities Fiscal consolidation Correcting macroeconomic imbalances Ensuring stability of the financial sector Pension reform AGS priorities Work more attractive Unemployed back to work Flexicurity Private capital for growth Potential of Single Market Efficient access to energy 30

31 Actions counting: AGS priorities 31

32 Second Step: Evaluating Government Priorities Government priorities Tax reform Regional divide Labour market Public works, housing R&D, education and meritocracy Tourism and agriculture Civil justice and Public Administration reform 32

33 Second step: aggregation of priorities in main areas of Action Areas of Interventions Employment and pensions Containing Government expenditure Product markets, competition and administrative efficiency Innovation and human capital Business support Federalism Energy and environment Infrastructure and development 33

34 Third Step: Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Impact of Reforms For several areas of interventions it is possible to provide a quantitative assessment of their macroeconomic impact The simulation exercise is aimed at evaluating on quantitative grounds the gains from reforms in terms of output, employment, consumption and investment growth. The simulation analysis has been conducted using both the QUEST III model with endogenous growth calibrated for Italy and the Italian Treasury Econometric Model ITEM. At aim to evaluate structural reforms it s important to consider both gross and net impact. 34

35 The Macroeconomic Impact of Reforms The individual measures of NRP have been aggregated in policy areas. For each set of policy interventions we devised specific shocks to the economic system in order to gauge with the models their effects on macro aggregates. The dynamic effects of these shocks have been simulated through the models maintained at the Treasury The sizes of the shock and of their macroeconomic impact are generally in line with similar simulation analyses performed by the European Commission 35

36 FINANCIAL IMPACT FOR AREAS OF INTERVENTION For each area it is possible to provide an assessment of the financial funds without the reform (current legislation) and of the budget impact in terms of lower revenues or higher expenditure Milions of Euro LABOR MARKET AND PENSIONS Higher expenditure , Higher expenditure not distributed 5,350 1,140 Lower Expenditure 3,000 4,000 6,300 10,300 11,800 13,000 Lower revenues 1,728 1,298 2,119 1,547 1,284 1,284 REDUCTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE Higher expenditure Lower expenditure 1,018 1,732 1,732 1,732 PRODUCT MARKET Higher expenditure ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Higher expenditure Lower revenues Higher revenues 125 INNOVATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL Higher expenditure 1,039 1,254 1, Higher expenditure not distributed 370 Lower revenues 9 1,833 2, Lower Expenditure 1,293 2,809 3,911 4,561 4,561 4,561 Higher revenues 2,400 SUPPORT TO FIRMS Higher expenditure Higher expenditure not distributed 785 Note: Resources from the QSN are excluded Italian planning cycle and macroeconomic projections 36

37 ITEM AND QUEST SHARED MULTIPLIERS Multiplier of GDP: simulations performed with the ITEM model Size Weight Reduction of unit labor cost 0,3 0,6 0,6 1% 0,5 Reform in the Pension system 0,1 0,5 0,5 1% GDP 1 Increase of transfers to production 0,7 0,5 0,7 1% GDP 0,1 Increase of tax base of social security contributions 0,1 0,5 0,4 1% Employees 1 Reduction of wage mark up 0,4 0,4 0,5 1% 0,5 Increase of productivity of public administration 0,1 0,1 0,1 1% 1 Increase of investment subsidies 0,3 0,1 0,3 1% GDP 0,1 Multiplier of GDP: simulations performed with the QUEST model Size Weight Reduction of wage mark up 0,3 0,3 0,4 1% 0,5 Increase of labor productivity 0,4 0,7 0,8 1% 0,5 Removal of barriers to entry 0,2 0,2 0,2 1% 1 Reduction of administrative burden 0,4 0,5 0,5 10% 1 Tax credit for researchers 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1% GDP 2 Reduction cost for intangible assets 1 0,2 0,5 50 pb 1 37

38 LABOUR MARKET AND PENSION SYSTEM Measures Reduction of pension expenditure Measures in the area of wage bargaining Measures for fostering productivity growth Policies for employment Macroeconomic Impact GDP Consumption Investments Employment Shock Modification of the requisites for accessing pension benefits Reduction of the mark-up on wages Increase of workers productivity Increase of transfers to the business sector Tax base of social contributions Reductions of unit labour costs Percentage deviation from the baseline scenario 38

39 PRODUCT MARKETS AND COMPETITION Measures Competition and market opening Business environment improvement Tax wedge reduction Administrative simplification Macroeconomic impact GDP Consumption Investments Employment Shock Removal of barriers to entry Reduction of mark-up on product markets Increase of productivity in Public Administration Reductions of unit labour costs Reductions of administrative burden Percentage deviation from the baseline scenario 39

40 INNOVATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL Measures Enhancing human capital Fiscal incentives to research activities Incentives for investments in R&D Macroeconomic Impact GDP Consumption Investments Employment Shock Tax credit for researchers Reduction of the cost for intangible assets Percentage deviation from the baseline scenario Italian planning cycle and macroeconomic projections 40

41 SUPPORT TO FIRMS Measures Shock Strategic projects and backing to production and research activities Macroeconomic Impact GDP Consumption Investments Employment Reduction of the cost for intangible assets Removal of barriers to entry Percentage deviation from the baseline scenario Italian planning cycle and macroeconomic projections 41

42 IMPACT OF THE MEASURES OF NRP BY AREAS OF INTERVENTION (percentage deviations from the baseline scenario) ID(*) Area Measure Description , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,8,9, 10 18, 19, 21, 31, 32, 34, 39, 41 Employment and pensions Product market, competition and administrative efficiency Savings in pension expenditure, measures on wage bargaining, development of productivity, policies to increase employment Competition and the opening of markets, improvement in the entrepreneurial environment, reduction of social security contributions, administrative efficiency and simplification Change in requirements for access to pensions, reduction of wage markup, increase of labour productivity, increase of transfers to firms, extension of social security contribution tax base, reduction of ULC Removal of barriers to entry, reduction of goods mark-up, increase of productivity of public administration, reduction of ULC, reduction of administrative burden GDP Consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Employment GDP Consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Employment , 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 67, 68, 71 Innovation and human capital Improvement of human capital, tax incentives to research, stimulation of investments in R&D Tax credit for researchers and reduction of cost for intangible assets GDP Consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Employment , 64, 65, 66, 76, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82 Business support Strategic projects and interventions to promote production and research activities Reduction of cost for intangible assets, reduction of administrative burden, increase of investment subsidies GDP Consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Employment (*) The numbers reported in column ID match the numbers of the measures in the grid included in the Appendix. 42

43 Strong growth policy plan: Decree Law no. 70/2011 (Law no. 106/2011) Decree Law no. 98/2011 (Law no. 111/2011) Decree Law no. 138/2011 (Law no. 148/2011) In the NRP for

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