Hordaland på Børs Bergen, 18 August 2016 Espen Opedal, Country Manager Norway

Transcription

1 Hordaland på Børs Bergen, 18 August 2016 Espen Opedal, Country Manager Norway

2 Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as targets, believes, expects, aims, intends, plans, seeks, will, may, anticipates, continues or similar expressions. A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance. We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law. 2

3 Tryg at a glance I Tryg goes back to 18th century. Gross premium split by products 2015 Very strong brand position especially in Denmark. Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Approx. 80% retail business. Retention rate - Private DK Norway Market position: #3 Market share: 13.4% CR in 2015: 87.9 Percentage NO Sweden Market position: #5 Market share: 2.9% CR in 2015: 82.7 Retention rate - Commercial NO Denmark Market position: #1 Market share: 18.1% CR in 2015: 85.2 Business split 2015 DK Percentage 3

4 Tryg at a glance II DKK Shareholder remuneration since IPO New dividend policy Shareholder performance since IPO Shareholder breakdown 2015 Percentage Strengthening of brand value 4

5 Structure of the Nordic insurance market Nordic EUR 25.7bn (as at Q4 2014) Denmark DKK 52.0bn/EUR 7.0bn (as at Q1 2015) Percentage Percentage Norway NOK 55.8bn/EUR 6.2bn (as at Q4 2015) Sweden SEK 73.0bn/EUR 7.9bn (as at Q4 2015) Percentage Percentage 5

6 Tryg s equity story Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong track record Financial targets 2017 Customer targets 2017 Low risk and high returns ROE: 21% Combined ratio: 87% NPS +100% Retention rate +1 pp Customer care worth recommending Expense ratio: 14% 3 products +5 pp Matching assets and liabilities Low risk investment portfolio Dividend policy Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend Pay-out ratio of 60% to 90% (secondary) Extraordinary buybacks to further adjust the capital structure 90% first contact resolution Annual coverage check Leading in efficiency Next level pricing Efficiency programme of DKK 750m Claims procurement 25% of tariffs better than peers in 2017 Differentiated product offering Reducing expense level Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation 6

7 Tryg Norway in brief We create peace of mind for our customers, employees and shareholders Market share of 13.3% 1,222 employees Premium income of NOK 8.1bn 3rd largest in general insurance Norway 2 brands (Tryg & Enter) Part of Tryg Group 7

8 Tryg Norway in brief Geography Market Share (FNO as at Q1 2016) Tromsø Harstad Bodø Ålesund Førde Bergen Haugesund Stavanger Kristiansand Trondheim Gol Hamar Hønefoss Oslo Tønsberg Drammen Porsgrunn Fredrikstad Procent Tryg Norway is an ambitious player in the Norwegian insurance market with its Norwegian head office located in Bergen, and wide geographical presence. Claims handling and Customer Service located in Bergen and Tønsberg. Strong sales and underwriting presence for the Commercial and Corporate market in Oslo and Bergen. 8

9 Tryg Norway - main focus now! Up sale & 3+ Efficiency Portfolio Mgmt. Distribution power Trygt & Enkelt The place to be! Kundesenter/ Direkte Salg Franchise 9

10 Customer highlights Q Many new digital self-service and claims solutions launched TryghedsGruppen paid its member bonus to Tryg s Danish customers, corresponding to 8% of the premium paid in NPS Digital self-service solutions for house, accident, pet and leisure house launched in Denmark. Moderna, Tryg s Swedish branch, was named Best Insurance Company of the year for the fourth year running. Customers with 3 products (%) New Commercial property insurance product in Denmark and Norway. 200,000 customers upgraded to new motor, accident and house products. Retention rate 10

11 Private - average prices House insurance average price (index 2011 = 100) Average price development Y/Y -0.7% 0.1% (Q1-0.9%) (Q1 0.3%) Average price: 4,800 5,500 DK: changed selection reduces average price, price increases starting 2016 to offset high claims inflation NO: small positive development reflect underlying price increases Motor insurance average price (index 2011 = 100) Average price development Y/Y -2.1% 0.9% (Q1-2.5%) (Q1 1.0%) Average price 4,200 5,700 DK 2.1% decrease y/y driven by: smaller cars safer cars Competition remains strong in Motor DKK but also profitability very high NO: small positive development reflects underlying price increases 11

12 Motor insurance, not all claims are coming down Wind shields (Glass) Wind shields price increases are mostly driven by the calibration of connected equipment and in general by different type of wind shields installed (2016 vs 2011) Wind shields, price increases in % from Prices show the cost of wind shields today, i.e. today s price of a 2011 wind shield model vs today s price of a 2016 wind shield model* Some manufactures have started offering more advanced technologies also on smaller cars, this means that the cost on replacing wind shields is increasing 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 23% 2011: 5,383 DKK 2016: 6,618 DKK Ford Focus 15% 2011: 5,310 DKK 2016: 6,086 DKK Nissan Qashqai Bumpers Bumpers, price increases in % from Ford Focus Nissan Qashqai Bumpers prices increases are seen across manufacturers and model ranges Price increases are driven by extra add ons such as radars* We expect this trend to continue as the extra equipment become more complex ,668 DKK Bumper 242% 15% 6,682 DKK ,378 DKK Bumper incl. Radar (10157 ex. VAT) ,296 DKK Bumper 116% 17% 6,372 DKK 11,426 DKK Bumper incl. Radar (4043 ex. VAT) 12 Sources: *FORSI/Autotakst, (Forsikring & Pension s system for claims management and list prices) **Source: Statistics Denmark, Net price index Spare parts for personal transport equipment

13 Positive topline development in Private Gross premiums down by 0.6% (-1.4%) in local currencies, Private & Commercial lines up, Corporate down Positive Private lines trend especially considering that avg. motor price in Denmark was down 2.1% Danish premiums up 1.7%, Norwegian premiums down 3.5% (in local currencies) primarily impacted by the Corporate segment Gross earned premiums development (Local currencies) DKKm Q Q Local currencies Q Local currencies Q Private 2,148 2, % -0.3% Commercial % -4.3% Corporate % -1.4% Sweden % -1.8% Group 4,379 4, % -1.4% 13

14 Efficiency programme, DKK 51m achieved in Q2 Programme proceeds as planned, target to achieve savings of DKK 750m over 3 years. Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm) Old programme New programme Higher savings in 2016 compared to Claims initiatives of DKK 36m in Q2: Focus on helping injured policyholders to get back to work quickly Cash settlements through In4mo system Total crash repair to reduce damage and re-sale cars as opposed to send it to car breakers Expense initiatives of DKK 15m in Q2: Outsourcing Accounting Reorganisation of Agriculture & Small Commercial division Digital communication 14

15 Expense ratio continues to improve Expense ratio improved 0.2 pp. to 15.0 in Q2 16 (15.2) Expense ratio Efficiency programme lowered costs by DKK 15m for Q2 mainly related to: Outsourcing within Finance and IT Commercial reorganisation Digital communication Further reduction in employees since year-end Important reduction in number of jobs in Norway (approx. 60 positions) which will mostly impact 2017 P&L Adjusted for one-off effects FTE - Development Nominal costs in business areas 15

16 Financial highlights Q Lower technical result and substantially higher investment return H1 DPS of DKK 2.60 and solvency ratio of 206 or 193 adjusted for Skandia child insurance portfolio Pre-tax profit (DKKm) Dividend growth in line with stated policy Solvency ratio includes H1 dividends and FY buy backs Pre-tax profit of DKK 934m (DKK 714m) impacted by: Lower technical result of DKK 770m (DKK 825m) High investment result of DKK 181m (DKK -84m) Combined ratio Technical result of DKK 770m (DKK 825m) NOK/DKK adverse move, low weather claims but also a higher underlying claims ratio Price increases started but it will take few quarters to see meaningful P&L impact Expense ratio of 15.0 (15.2) and combined ratio of 82.6 (82.2) Expense ratio Investment income of DKK 181m (DKK -84m) 16 Substantially above expectations, driven both by the free portfolio and the match portfolio Equities were flat but strong returns on high-yield bonds, emerging-markets debt and index-linked bonds

17 Why invest in Tryg? Pre-tax result by division (YE 2015 data) High insurance penetration in the Nordics Premiums per capita (USD), 2014 Motor combined ratios Nordics vs international Tryg is a dividend stock DKK Total yield (dividend and buy backs / market cap) at year end 17

18 18 Questions?