ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM - WHITE KNIGHT OR HORSEMAN OF THE APOCALYPSE?

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1 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM - WHITE KNIGHT OR HORSEMAN OF THE APOCALYPSE? Tim Foster Head of Renewable Generation May 2014

2 Statkraft Statkraft is Europe s largest generator of renewable energy Hydropower, wind power, gas power and district heating assets. Statkraft in the UK owns and develops on and off shore wind and hydropower assets and is the market leader independent long term PPA provider - Over 1250MW under contract - ROC and CfD Off-take contracts 2

3 Contract for Difference The Feed in Tariff Contract for Difference (FiT CfD) will replace the Renewable Obligation (RO) as the primary support mechanism for large scale renewable/low carbon generators. The FiT CfD is a long-term contract which remunerates low carbon generation at a defined strike price. The generator is expected to sell its output into the wholesale electricity market and receive a portion of its revenue from this. In addition, the generator may receive (or pay) top up payments between a defined electricity market index (the market reference price) and the strike price. If the wholesale market reference price is below the contract strike price, then the generator receives a difference payment and if the reference price is above the strike price, the generator makes the difference payment 3

4 ROCs Electricity Merchant PPA PPA with Floor Value Electricity CfD Top-up CfD PPA Value Capture values under RO and CfD PPAs PPA Discountc CfD Discount Cost of Floor RO PPA discounts cover forward curve volatility, within day re-trading, imbalance and transaction costs. Floor prices mitigates market price downside risk CfD PPA discount includes Basis Risk (within day re-trading risk and imbalance costs), transaction costs and price negative price provisions 4

5 Current Early 2020 s Late 2020 s Cost CfD Basis Risk Basis risk exists from day one, however, success of EMR in delivering renewables will drive up basis risk - Within day trading (from confirmation of reference price to Gate Closure) - Imbalance - Negative Prices Negative prices Intra-day trading Imbalance Price the risk now or take it on later? 5

6 Basis Risk Management Imbalance Re-trading Risk 6

7 Off-taker of Last Resort and the Back-stop PPA CfD-FiT ambitions are to encourage a vibrant competitive PPA market - One major flaw what if nobody offers a route to market Introduction of the concept of an Off-taker of Last Resort (OLR) and a default (Back-stop PPA) to address market failure and off-taker insolvency risks month PPA at a known discount to the Strike Price ( 25/MWh) - Big Six will be mandatory providers, other suppliers can enter the process week window to obtain a Back-stop PPA process run by Ofgem - OLR providers will bid a Management Fee (+ or -) OLR provides a floor to CfD PPA discounts at 25/MWh (c.a. 25% discount) but clearly has a massive impact on debt sizing capacity 7

8 Price Debt Sizing and Risk Under CfD PPAs Short term route to market CfD Strike Price Long term route to market Debt sizing (Equity return) grey area Back-stop PPA Time 8

9 CfD Counterparty CfD Settlement Process Billing Periods daily Generator settlement Billing Period - daily Supplier settlement 7 business days after Billing period issue of Billing Statement 5 business days after Billing period CfD counterparty receives settlement data. 2 business days after receipt of data- issue of invoice (7 business days after Billing period in total) 5 business day after receipt of Billing Statement (12 days after Billing Period in total) generator pays any money owed to the CfD counterparty (ref price above strike price) 28 calendar days after the Billing Period counterparty pays the generators top ups against metred generation (ref price below strike price) 5 business days after receipt of invoice suppliers make payment (12 business days after billing period in total ), plus a possible 2 business day rectification period (14 business days after billing period in total). Timing difference between supplier receipts and generator payments creates natural reserve

10 CfD PPA Contract CONTENTS Clause Heading Page 1 DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION 4 2 CONDITIONS PRECEDENT 34 3 COMMENCEMENT OF THE COMMISSIONING PERIOD 34 4 COMMENCEMENT OF THE COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS PERIOD 35 5 SALE AND PURCHASE 35 6 REGISTRATION & ACCREDITATION 36 7 TRANSFER OF BENEFITS 38 8 TRANSFER DEFAULT 40 9 BENEFIT REVOCATION REGOS & NEW BENEFITS PAYMENTS ALLOCATION ERRORS & ESTIMATES PAYMENT TERMS FLOOR PRICE SET OFF CREDIT SUPPORT EXTENSIONS METERING FORECASTS & DATA PROVISION MAINTENANCE, OUTAGES AND AVAILABILITY FORCE MAJEURE TERM & TERMINATION CONSEQUENCES OF TERMINATION INSURANCE LIMITATION OF LIABILITY REPRESENTATIONS, WARRANTIES AND UNDERTAKINGS TRANSFER OF RIGHTS/OBLIGATIONS CHANGE IN LAW NOTICES CONFIDENTIALITY DISPUTE RESOLUTION GENERAL GOVERNING LAW AND JURISDICTION APPLICATION OF THE NATIONAL TERMS OF CONNECTION 91 SCHEDULE 1 AGREEMENT SPECIFICS 93 SCHEDULE 2 CONDITIONS, COMMISSIONING REQUIREMENTS AND OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS 95 SCHEDULE 3 PRICES & SHARING PERCENTAGES 97 SCHEDULE 4 FLOOR PRICE 103 SCHEDULE 5 FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS 106 SCHEDULE 6 - CONTACT DETAILS 110 SCHEDULE 7 - DIRECT AGREEMENT 119 SCHEDULE 8 - PARENT COMPANY GUARANTEE 143 SCHEDULE 9 BANK GUARANTEE 154 ROC References Removed Structurally a CfD PPA will look very similar to a ROC PPA - References to CfD legislation and processes - Eligibility - Termination provisions and cross default - CfD Counterparty Credit - Settlement - Negative Prices - Ancillary Services 10

11 Discussion Points Can projects be funded under a CfD PPA term and debt sizing Settlement and Settlement Agents cash flow management Negative Prices and Ancillary Services Off-taker of Last Resort Reporting 11

12 THANK YOU Tim Foster DIRECT +44 (0) MOBILE +44 (0) Switchboard +44 (0) Fax +44 (0) Statkraft UK Ltd 4 th Floor 41 Moorgate London EC2R 6PP United Kingdom