Vulnerability of aquaculture in the tropical Pacific to climate change

Transcription

1 Photo: Ben Ponia Chapter 11 Vulnerability of aquaculture in the tropical Pacific to climate change Timothy D Pickering, Ben Ponia, Cathy A Hair, Paul C Southgate, Elvira S Poloczanska, Luc Della Patrona, Antoine Teitelbaum, Chadag V Mohan, Michael J Phillips, Johann D Bell and Sena De Silva Pacific Islands have many attributes that favour the development of aquaculture. (Adams et al. 2001) i 647

2 Contents Page 11.1 Introduction Recent and potential aquaculture production Commodities for food security Commodities for livelihoods Vulnerability of aquaculture to the effects of climate change Vulnerability of commodities for food security Tilapia and carp Milkfish Vulnerability of commodities for livelihoods Pearls Shrimp Seaweed Marine ornamentals Freshwater prawns Marine fish Sea cucumbers Trochus Climate change, aquaculture and aquatic diseases Integrated vulnerability of the aquaculture sector Opportunities New commodities Harnessing new opportunities to expand production Market instruments and climate change Financing options for future development Uncertainty, gaps in knowledge and future research Commodities for food security Commodities for livelihoods Other important considerations Management implications and recommendations 712 References

3 CHAPTER Introduction 649

4 PICT Production (tonnes) Value (USD million) French Polynesia 2464 a 173 New Caledonia Others Total

5 CHAPTER E 160 E W 140 W 20 N 10 N 0 10 S 20 S 11.2 Recent and potential aquaculture production Commodities for food security 651

6 Commodity Culture system(s) Environment(s) PICTs involved* Food security Tilapia Earthen ponds Terrestrial Carp Milkfish Livelihoods Pearls Shrimp Seaweed Marine ornamentals** Earthen ponds, river releases Earthen ponds, stonewalled sea pens Submerged or surface longlines Earthen ponds, cement tanks Off-bottom longlines, floating longlines Seabed racks, floating cages Terrestrial Terrestrial, shallow lagoons Deep lagoons, sheltered bays Terrestrial, adjacent to brackish or marine water source Shallow sandy backreef areas of lagoons Lagoons American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, Guam, Kiribati, CNMI, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Fiji, PNG Cook Islands, Fiji, Guam, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, FSM, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, PNG, Solomon Islands, Tonga French Polynesia, Fiji, Guam, New Caledonia, CNMI, PNG, Vanuatu Fiji, Kiribati, PNG, Solomon Islands Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, FSM, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu Freshwater prawns Earthen ponds Terrestrial Cook Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu Marine fish Sea cucumber Trochus Floating sea cages, land-based raceways Released in the wild, pen grow-out, pond grow-out Land-based tanks, released in the wild Lagoons, sheltered bays Seagrass beds Coral reefs French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Palau, Marshall Islands, CNMI, PNG, Vanuatu Fiji, FSM, Kiribati, New Caledonia, Palau, Solomon Islands Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu Tilapia and carp 652

7 CHAPTER 11 PICT Farming units People employed F L Total F L Total Melanesia Fiji New Caledonia PNG > 10,000* > 60 > 10,000* > 10,000* > 60 > 10,000* Solomon Islands Vanuatu Micronesia FSM Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands CNMI Palau Polynesia American Samoa Cook Islands French Polynesia Samoa Tonga Total 13, ,439 13, ,

8 654

9 CHAPTER Milkfish Commodities for livelihoods 655

10 Pearls Photo: Leanne Hunter 656

11 CHAPTER Shrimp 657

12 Seaweed Photo: Georges Steinmetz 658

13 CHAPTER 11 a) 15 Black pearls 200 Production (tonnes) Value (USD millions) 0 0 b) 3.0 Shrimp 40 Production (tonnes x 1000) Value (USD millions) c) Seaweed Production (tonnes x 1000) Value (USD thousands) Year 659

14 Marine ornamentals 660

15 CHAPTER Freshwater prawns 661

16 Marine fish Sea cucumbers 662

17 CHAPTER Trochus 11.3 Vulnerability of aquaculture to the effects of climate change 663

18 Vulnerability of commodities for food security Tilapia and carp 664

19 CHAPTER

20 666

21 CHAPTER

22 Milkfish 668

23 CHAPTER 11 Photo: Timothy Pickering 669

24 Vulnerability of commodities for livelihoods Pearls 670

25 CHAPTER

26 672

27 CHAPTER

28 a) b) Shrimp 674

29 CHAPTER

30 a) 35 Present Temperature ( C) Mortality 15 b) 35 Future: Positive Temperature ( C) Mortality 15 c) 35 Future: Negative Temperature ( C) Mortality 15 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Summer Autumn Winter Spring Summer 676

31 CHAPTER

32 a) b) c) d) 678

33 CHAPTER

34 680

35 CHAPTER 11 a) b) c) 681

36 682

37 CHAPTER Seaweed 683

38 a) b) 684

39 CHAPTER

40 a) b) c) Annual seaweed production (tonnes) Year 686

41 CHAPTER Marine ornamentals 687

42 688

43 CHAPTER

44 Photo: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg 690

45 CHAPTER

46 Freshwater prawns 692

47 CHAPTER Marine fish 693

48 694

49 CHAPTER

50 Sea cucumbers 696

51 CHAPTER 11 Mean survival (%) a) b) g 2 5 g 5 10 g Nepoui Ouano Months after release Months after release 0 697

52 698

53 CHAPTER 11 Photo: Cathy Hair Trochus 699

54 a) b) centimetres Dry shell weight (g) Maximum shell diameter (mm) Cultured trochus Wild trochus 700

55 CHAPTER Climate change, aquaculture and aquatic diseases 701

56 Disease Epizootic ulcerative syndrome (EUS) 254 Viral nervous necrosis (VNN) 255 Koi herpes virus (KHV) 256 White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) 237 Taura syndrome virus (TSV) 237 Infectious hypodermal and hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) 237 White tail disease (WTD) 257 Syndrome 93 vibriosis 65 Syndrome Bacterial infection Vibrio harveyi 259 Commodity Freshwater fish Marine fish Koi and common carp Shrimp (Penaeidae) Shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei Shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei, L. stylirostris Freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii Shrimp Litopenaeus stylirostris Pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera (French Polynesia) Pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera (Cook Islands) Factors likely to increase the risk of diseases in the future 702

57 CHAPTER Possible effects of climate change and ocean acidification on diseases 703

58 11.4 Integrated vulnerability of the aquaculture sector 704

59 CHAPTER Opportunities New commodities 705

60 Commodity Food security Tilapia and carp Temp. Rainfall Ocean acid. Specific effects Sealevel rise Cyclones Habitat alteration B1/A Vulnerability B A (+) (+) n/a (-) (-) n/a L (+) L (+) L (+) Milkfish (+) (+) (-) (+/-) (-) (-) L (+) L (+) L (+) Livelihoods Pearls (-) (-) (-) (+/-) (-) n/a L (-) L (-) M (-) Seaweed (-) (-) (+) (+) (-) n/a M (-) M-H(-) H (-) Shrimp (+/-) (-) nil (-) (-) n/a L (+) L (-) L M (-) Marine ornamentals Freshwater prawn Marine fish (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) L (-) M (-) H (-) (+) (+/-) n/a (-) (-) (+) L (+) L (-) L (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (+/-) L (-) L (-) L-M (-) Sea cucumbers Trochus (+/-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) L (-) L (-) L-M (-) nil (-)? (-) (-) (+) L (-) L (-) L (-) Unlikely Somewhat likely Likely Very likely Very low Low Medium High Very high 0% 29% 66% 90% 100% 0% 5% 33% 66% 95% 100% 706

61 CHAPTER Harnessing new opportunities to expand production Market instruments and climate change 707

62 Carbon labelling Green labelling 708

63 CHAPTER Financing options for future development 11.6 Uncertainty, gaps in knowledge and future research Commodities for food security 709

64 Photo: Paul Christian Ryan 710

65 CHAPTER Commodities for livelihoods Other important considerations 711

66 11.7 Management implications and recommendations 712

67 CHAPTER 11 Photo: Gideon Tiroba 713

68 714

69 CHAPTER 11 Photo: Yves Harache 715

70 716

71 CHAPTER 11 References 717

72 718

73 CHAPTER

74 720

75 CHAPTER

76 722

77 CHAPTER

78 724

79 CHAPTER

80 726

81 CHAPTER

82 728

83 CHAPTER

84 730

85 CHAPTER

86 732