Developing a National Integrated Heat Health Early Warning System
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1 Developing a National Integrated Heat Health Early Warning System Dr. Wayne Higgins! Director, Climate Program Office / NOAA / OAR! Heat Health Workshop! July 29, 2015!! Acknowledgments: Hunter Jones, Juli Trtanj, Roger Pulwarty! 1
2 Changing Condi*ons What informa*on is needed for decisions? Timely, credible, useful - across all *me scales
3 Changing Condi*ons Weather to Climate is a Con*nuum.. Tornadoes Heat Waves Snowstorms Storm Track Hurricanes Variations Typhoons Madden-Julian Oscillation 1 DAY 30 DAYS 1 SEASON El Niño-Southern Oscillation 3 YEARS 10 YEARS Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO- CENTURY A changing climate influences the frequency and intensity of extremes, including heat waves..
4 NOAA s Role What is the Role of NOAA? NOAA provides essen*al environmental informa*on PuHng environmental informa*on into the hands of people who need it
5 What is an Integrated Informa1on System? It is the systema*c collec*on and analysis of relevant informa*on about areas of impending risk that informs early warning to early ac*on.
6 Weather- Scale Heat Health Systems Around the World United States Ψ Local ac*on prompted by NWS WFO alerts NWS WFOs Issue watch/advisory/warning; local agencies respond; CDC has Natl Env. Public Health Tracking Network Alerts issued at forecaster discre*on; NWS issues guidance 72- hour lead *me for heat watch;6-10 excessive heat outlook Trigger is Heat Index, max/min temp., or synop*c system Canada City/Province level HARS (Heat Alert & Response Systems) Environment Canada issues Humidex fcast., high- low temps; Provincial Med. Officer of Health (MOH) administers Alert ul*mately determined by MOH (Toronto) MOH issues extreme alert if 3 day dura*on exceeds thresholds Trigger is flexible: air temp, Humidex, air pollu*on, mortality Japan City- level systems & na*onal forecasts Local departments of Crisis Management, Health Promo*on, or Sports Associa*ons coordinate the systems Alert thresholds vary by city Advanced warning varies, one example is 21 hours WBGT is monitored at schools, as well as air temperature Germany* Na*onal system with county- level warnings Developed and operated by federal environment agency and weather service in conjunc*on with public health office Warnings are produced at the county level 6 day forecast of heat pre- info from federal level Trigger is heat load based on perceived temperature Australia Ω State- level systems (Natl. req. for Heatwave Sub Plans) Dept. of Health owns system in Victoria; Emergency Opera*ons owns system in New South Wales Alert threshold varies by forecast district (Victoria) 3-4 day advanced warning; 7 day forecast Trigger is average temperature 1 / 2 (max + min) India City- level system; Ahmedabad Heat Ac*on Plan in 2013 Ahmedabad Municipal Corpora*on (AMC) Nodal Officer issues alerts, Indian Met Centre declares heat wave 40C max daily temp threshold in plains, 30C in hilly regions 7 day forecast Hybrid dynamical- sta*s*cal probabilis*c temperature forecast United Kingdom* Na*onal system with regional thresholds Dept. of health owns and operates system while Met Office forecasts Alert threshold >30C day temp & 15C overnight 2-3 days lead *me for lowest alert levels Trigger is min and max temperature France* Na*onal system (SACS) with regional plans Health department issues plan and manages system while Meteo- France monitors and issues warnings Alert threshold regionally dependent 5 day forecast and 1 day alert lead *me Trigger is min and max temperature; heat stress index toronto.ca Ω health.vic.gov.au Martinez et al Ψ Hawkins & Brown 2015 Knowlton et al *Lowe et al. 2011
7 Expected Outcome!(a) Input and best practices and (b) possible parameters to predict heat and its impacts towards a National Integrated Heat Health Information System!! Extreme heat events will be more frequent and more intense in the future (NCAA, IPCC)!! Collaboration among climate and public health communities defines demand and enables use of Heat Health forecasts and other information!! NOAA research, observation, prediction, and communication capabilities underpin NIHHIS from weather to climate time scales!! NOAA CPO, NWS, NCEI-Partnering with Centers for Disease Control (NIH, USDA)!! Goal: To provide a suite of decision support services that be6er serve public health needs to prepare and respond Starting to build the National Integrated Heat Health Information System weaving together existing pieces, identifying gaps and filling them!
8 Extras National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office 8
9 Expected Outcome of this Session (a) Input and best practices and (b) possible parameters to predict and warn for heat and its impacts towards a:! Na;onal Integrated Heat Health Informa;on System RECOGNIZING:!! Heat is the number one weather related killer!! Extreme heat events will be more frequent and more intense in the future (NCAA, IPCC)!! Collaboration among climate and public health communities defines demand and enables use of Heat Health forecasts and other information!! NOAA capabilities underpin NIHHIS from weather to climate time scales!! NOAA CPO, NWS, NCEI-Partnering with Centers for Disease Control (NIH, USDA)! GOAL: To provide a suite of decision support services that be6er serve public health needs to prepare and respond
10 Outline A Changing Planet Means Changing Condi*ons NOAA s Role What is an Integrated Informa*on System? Current Heat Health Early Warning Systems Expected Outcome of this Session
11 Changing Condi*ons What do we know? Ten Indicators of Changing Condi*ons: Source: Na*onal Clima*c Data Center Source: Na*onal Clima*c Data Center
12 Changing Condi*ons Why do we care? Lives, Livelihoods and Economies are at risk Life and Property Aviation Maritime Space Operations Forests Emergency Management Commerce Ports Energy Hydropower Reservoir Control Infrastructure Construction Agriculture Recreation Ecosystems Health Environment Careful prepara*ons are required to seize opportuni*es, and minimize risks and vulnerabili*es
13 Changing Condi*ons Observed U.S. Temperature Change Map: changes over 22 years ( ) compared to average. Bars: change by decade for (relative to a average).
14 Changing Condi*ons Projected U.S. Temperature Change Maps show ( ) rela1ve to ( ) for low (high) scenario Both scenarios associated with increases in heat waves.
15 Components of a National Integrated Heat Health Information System Monitoring, Observation, and Forecasting Impacts and Assessments INTEGRATED INFORMATION Integrated Information Communication and Outreach Planning and Preparedness
16 A Na1onal Integrated Heat Health Informa1on System NOAA s research programs and expertise help the nation understand, anticipate and respond to increased heat waves and heat-related events Define Demand Improve Forecasts Observe & Monitor NOAA sustains engagement between climate and public health communities to identify needs, develop solutions, and inform decisions. RISA and Heat Health In New York City: In North Carolina: In Arizona: CDC Climate and Health Program: NOAA works to improve current heat forecasts based on user need and to extend heat projections from weeks to months and beyond. Climate Variability & Predictability Program (CVP): bit.ly/aboutcvp Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, & Projections Program (MAPP): bit.ly/mappprojects Madden-Julian Oscillation: bit.ly/mjoandtemp Climate Prediction Center Temperature Outlooks: NOAA works to sustain observations that support improved understanding of the role of climate on extreme heat and enhance operational efforts. Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM): bit.ly/climateobs CDC National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program: bit.ly/cdc-nehtp Understand & Communicate Crafting an integrated information system NOAA research enhances understanding and impact of extreme heat events across time scales, builds capacity across climate and public health communities, and develops timely and accessible communication tools to inform preparedness and adaptation. Monitoring, Observation, and Forecasting INTEGRATED INFORMATION Impacts and Assessments U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit and Human Health: toolkit.climate.gov/topics/human-health Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA): bit.ly/cporisa Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program (COCA): bit.ly/cpo-coca Communication and Outreach Planning and Preparedness To make the best decisions, stakeholders need access to more than just one piece of the puzzle. Integrated Information Systems are designed to evolve over time, offer opportunities for diverse participation, and integrate what we learn through practice.
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