European offshore wind market. December 2012

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1 European offshore wind market December 2012

2 Investment drivers Offshore wind Investor snapshot Offshore wind has strong underlying investment drivers 1 Offshore wind is an established, maturing \ asset class with strong growth potential 2 3 UK and Germany are both investor-friendly markets with huge offshore wind pipelines The major European utilities represent highly credible counterparties for overseas investors 4 There have now been a number of precedent transactions involving deployment of huge capital sums 5 Clear investment structures drive visible risk / return profiles 1

3 Offshore wind market overview

4 Cumulative capacity (GW) Annual Capex (EUR bn) Offshore wind market overview Offshore wind is a maturing European asset class with high growth potential Major European Governments are committed to offshore wind The offshore wind sector in Europe has grown steadily since the turn of the century, Consistent high wind resource and large scale project opportunities drive the appeal The major European utilities are at the forefront of building out offshore wind projects Estimated market status end 2012 (MW cumulative installations) UK Germany Benelux France Total Operational 2, , ,499 Under construction Scandinavia Preconstruction 2,410 1, ,982 41,872 37, ,937 4,133 85,627 Total 47,098 39,212 1,944 2,721 4,133 95,108 Offshore wind is set to grow more rapidly in the coming years, requiring new sources of capital Forecast installations and annual capex requirements European capacity is set to rise from 4.5 GW in 2012 to up to c.15 GW by the end of 2017 Almost EUR 40 billion of capital is required in order to build out the pipeline To date most projects have been funded on utility s balance sheets Cumulative capacity (GW) Annual capex requirements (EUR bn) 3

5 Germany United Kingdom Offshore wind market overview The UK and Germany are the two dominant offshore wind markets They benefit from attractive subsidy regimes and a strong pipeline of projects being developed Largest offshore wind market by installed capacity and market potential EUR 11bn capital required Grid connection is governed under the UK regulator s offshore transmission regime Projects currently receive green certificate subsidy (Renewable Obligation Certificates ROCs) Lifetime revenue for new projects EUR / MWh Subsidy Market revenue 20 Year Lifetime revenue for new projects Largest Renewables market in Europe Increasing commitment to offshore wind following pull back from nuclear EUR 18bn capital required Local grid is obligated to connect qualifying offshore wind farms Projects receive Feed in Tariff (FiT) subsidy EUR / MWh Subsidy 0 8 [x] Market revenue 20 Year 4

6 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile

7 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile Many utilities are looking to recycle capital to deliver further projects Primary Secondary Primary Turbine supplier Secondary Pension funds / family offices EPC Asian infrastructure investors 6

8 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile Example structures used to finance offshore wind projects EPC wrap structure (e.g. Borkum Riffgrund I) 50% DONG 32% KIRKBI Oticon 18% DONG provides EPC wrap: it bears risk of cost overruns and delays DONG provides some operating guarantees Outstanding risks to project delivery are insured Long stop date, after which funds returned with interest Signed construction agreement 1 Construction starts Construction period fixed price DONG EPC wrap Instalments of preagreed price to fund construction Long term junior partnership Capital deployed during construction period No SPV level debt finance Rating considerations of wraps COD 50% ownership passes to partners Runningin expiry Japanese trading house structure (e.g. Gunfleet Sands) Set up as an Unincorporated Joint Venture DONG 50.1% 49.9% Gunfleet Sands Project Co Marubeni Holdco First Japanese entry to an offshore wind project NEXI insurance wrap reduces cost of debt Initial 152m corporate bridging loan Relationship banks (SMBC / Mizuho) Corporate bridging loan refinanced with non recourse PF guaranteed by NEXI 7

9 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile Example structures used to finance offshore wind projects Traditional project finance (e.g. Lincs) Holdco project finance structure (e.g.walney I and II) Centrica DONG Siemens SSE DONG Ampere PGGM 50% 50% Lincs Project Co Lincs RE Holdings Ltd 50% 50% > 400m project finance facility recently agreed 25.1% 50.1% Walney Project Co 40.0% 60.0% Holdco Bridging loan 24.8% Project finance being raised 1 st SPV finance for in-construction UK offshore wind (subject to CPs) Cost implications of standard SPV finance terms (fees / margins) Overall size restricted by lender appetite for construction risk First direct pension fund investment in UK offshore wind Holdco structure designed to bridge differing investor / utility requirements Structure challenged: Lenders struggle to avoid SPV step-in 8

10 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile Commercial lenders are still wary of taking full construction risk Construction phase delivery bundles 1. Substation and onshore works 1. Off-shore substation 3. Transition pieces 5. WTGs 2. Foundations 1. and 4. Export cables 1. and 4. Array cables Workstream 1. Cables; Substation; Onshore electrical 2.Foundation (turbine and substation) 3. Fitting transition pieces 4. Install offshore cables 5. Turbines (Supply, install and O&M) 6. Transportation and installation of monopiles and WTGs Operations Key risks Delivery risks Technical risks Strength of warranties Installation risk / shipping Integration risks Interface risks E.g. turbines/foundations E.g. cables/substation External risks Weather risk Input material/resource risk Environmental risks Regulatory risk Change in law risk Longevity risk Energy price risk Few commercial project finance lenders are likely to bear offshore wind construction finance risk Construction project finance requires careful risk allocation between ECAs, sponsors, deliverers and suppliers 9

11 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile Selected offshore wind funding precedents Thornton Bank II (2010) Belgium Senior commercial debt, 419m 34% Ancillaries, 80m 6% Equity, 283m 23% Senior EIB debt, 450m 37% 295MW 77% gearing Total debt 0.9bn 1.2bn capital value 7 lenders North Belgium, 27km offshore 49 x REpower 6MW Borkum West (2010) Germany Senior commercial debt, 859m, 47% Ancillaries, 66m, 4% Senior EIB debt, 100m, 5% Equity, 800m, 44% 200MW 64% gearing Total debt 0.6bn 0.9bn capital value 10 lenders NW Germany, 45km offshore 40 x Areva 5MW Meerwind (2011) Germany 288MW Global Tech I (2011) Germany 400MW Senior commercial debt, 805m, 64% Ancillaries, 97m, 8% Equity, 352m, 28% 70% gearing Total debt 0.9bn 1.2bn capital value 7 lenders NW Germany, 53km offshore 80 x Siemens 3.6MW Senior commerci al debt, 859m, 47% Ancillaries 66m, 4% Equity, 800m, 44% 55% gearing Total debt 1bn 1.9bn capital value 17 lenders NW Germany, 115km offshore 80 x Areva 5MW Senior EIB debt, 100m, 5% Key characteristics of recent facilities Strong sponsor requirements Long-term senior sponsor project management Sponsor offtake (or existing FiT) Strong contractor support High turbine parent company guarantees / performance security / defects notification / power curve warranty Long-term O&M with robust availability guarantee; strong contract caps 10

12 Transaction activity, structures and risk profile EIB and ECA support for offshore wind Role of the European Investment Bank (EIB) Contributes towards the integration, balanced development and economic and social cohesion of the EU Member States Lends on favourable terms to projects furthering EU policy objectives Role of ECAs Insure against risks in the financing of export and investment projects Operate on commercial terms and conditions, and support and supplement private sector lending Greenfield only Up to 50% of project finance requirement Only funds greenfield projects Not re-financing of operating assets Can fund up to 50% of costs through senior debt Construction costs and capitalised interest costs are both eligible Certain project costs are ineligible: E.g. Pre-funding reserves and operating costs during construction They want to help projects come online in order to boost trade for businesses in their country Act as a syndication partner for risk with lenders, guaranteeing banks and loan positions. Commercial banks will drive the process Eksport Kredit Fonden (EKF) EKF is the Danish ECA Provides cover and guarantees for Danish turbines (Vestas, Siemens) Only 200 million maximum lent at risk Above 200 million guarantees are required Project must be investment grade This would be expected to rank pari passu with commercial bank loans EIB participation over 200 million requires additional guarantees Either: Export Credit Agencies (see next page) Guarantees from other third parties The project would need to be at least investment grade, preferably higher A PPA is required for the full tenor, with a floor price Economic viability EKF conditions Interaction with other lenders ECAs will assess the economic viability of a project much as a commercial bank would Minimum 20% of a project must be equity funded Maximum senior debt guarantee of 250 million EKF has a record of taking on construction risk Some banks not comfortable with ECAs as it adds another party and another set of regulations For construction projects, ECA cover can act as a sweetener with commercial lenders to mitigate risk Agreement template between EKF and the EIB 11

13 2012 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

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