MALAYSIA THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AT 2010

Transcription

1 MALAYSIA THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AT

2 MDG 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER Achieved at country level, although slight increase to 3.8% in 2009, from 3.6% in 2007 for HHs or >6% of population in poverty ~1.5 million persons Figures are down sharply from 1990 and 1999 but not in all state and strata levels: esp for Sabah For indigenous minorities: poverty incidence went up in 2009, from 2007 Children (under-15) poverty, 8.9% in 2009 almost 2.5x poverty rate, ~660,000 children; relative & absolute increase from 2007 Urban poverty, under 2%, but 31% of poor households in 2009, up from 24% in 1999; possible increase in absolute numbers Poverty of agricultural households, 18% in 1999 decrease to 13% in 2009; but proportion of total poor households up from 38% (1999) to 44% (2009) Income inequality: high and little changed from

3 Incidence of Poverty by Strata,

4 Poverty by State,

5 Rural Poverty Incidence by State,

6 Incidence of Poverty (%) Poverty by Ethnicity Malay Chinese Indian Other Bumiputera 7 Others

7 Proportion of bottom 40% HHs in each ethnic group, 1989 AND 2009 (%)

8 Income Inequality Gini Coefficient 1989: : : Persistent Poverty in Bottom 40 % of Households - Share in Total HH Income:

9 Monthly Household Income (RM) Income Inequality Year p90 p50 p10

10 Income Distribution among Poor Households by Gender of Household Head, 2009

11 Women-headed households Women-headed households - higher probability of being poor Poor Poor without welfare Male-headed Female-headed Poor without remittances 11

12 Poverty by Education of Household Head, 2009 (%) Education of Household Head Primary or less Secondary Post secondary or tertiary 0.200

13 GDP/capita (const LCU), 1970=1 Source: UNSTATS 13

14 Target 1B - Decent Employment Non-agr informal sector at 20%, small by most DC standards Women in informal sector: much lower mean earnings Under-employment (<35 hours a week): 10% in 2008; Higher for those with Primary education: 16% Youth unemployment increased Unemployment for at 11% (2008), accounting for 60% of the unemployed; Increased to 12% in 2009 Account for 5% of youth population and 6 x adult unemployment rate 14

15 Decent Employment Employment to population ratio: Stable Youth employment: Rising

16 Target 1C - Halve hunger Focus: children (under-5) hunger Achieved at all levels But child poverty in a number of states above 10% Concern with validity of data: need for sample surveys, perhaps in combination with HIS 16

17 Children in Poverty by State, 1989 and 2007

18 MDG 2 Universal Primary Education Target 2A: complete course of primary education Net enrolment Primary, practically achieved (does not cover children of nondocumented population) Pockets, e.g., Penan, OrangAsli, Pockets & poor/low income, amount to >100,000 children not in school Secondary, getting there Drop-out at transition from primary: about 3-4%, about 20,000 Inter-state/strata differentials Poor/Non-poor divide significant MDG++: quality, as measured by examinations Reason for significant concern, esp with nation s ambitions 18

19 Decent starting point Census

20 Poor and not-in-school,

21 PMR 2008 by Grades 21

22 PMR 2008, Maths & Science 22

23 TIMSS 1999 & 2007 Maths 23

24 TIMSS 2007 Maths 24

25 MDG 3 PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN Target 3A: Gender Parity Education: achieved, or better, at all levels LFPR 45.7% in 2008 Stagnant over 25 years; increasing at age group; significant drop out, presumably on marriage/child-bearing Non-agr employment: higher than proportion in labour force and growing, but Gender wage disparities Participation in admin/managerial level - low Representation in Parliament: stagnant, at low level 25

26 Gender Gap Index Malaysian Gender Gap Index: 1980: : 0.25 Education = Health = Economic participation = Women empowerment = (high inequality) Global Gender Gap Index: 2006: : : 98 UNDP Human Development Index: 2005: : 66 Gender-related Development Index: 2005: : 88 Gender Empowerment Index: 2005: : 68

27 Share of women in wage employment in nonagricultural sector by state 27

28 Gender gap in labour force participation by ethnicity, Figure 3.5 Male-female gap in labour force participation rates by ethnicity 40.0 g a p t 38.0 in o p g e ta 36.0 n rce e p 34.0 a le m -fe a le 32.0 M Total Malaysian Malay Other Bumiputera Chinese Indians Note: Thre-year moving averages from

29 Women in Political Life 29

30 Violence Against Women by State 30

31 MDG 4 REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY Target 4A: reduce u5mr by two-thirds, i.e. to under- 6/1000 by 2015 u5mr Halved to a low 8/1000 in 2000; static since Last mile will be difficult, related to more than just health services Data issues: Sabah, specifically IMR 13.2/1000 in 1990 to 6/1000 in 2000, static since measles/mmr vaccination At country level, practically achieved Significant pockets not captured at aggregate level 31

32 Under-five mortality rates

33 u5mr by State, W.P. Kuala Lumpur Terengganu Selangor Sarawak 20 Johor Kedah Kelantan Melaka Negeri Sembilan Sabah Pulau Pinang Perlis Perak Pahang

34 u5mr by per cap HH income,

35 u5mr by state poverty,

36 Children from Poor HHs Low birth weight: 10%, apparently increased from 8% in early 1990 s; although data does not indicate it, it is probable that they tend to be from poor households Low birth weight children are at greater risk of mortality Children under-15: 9% poor, make up 45% of poor persons (2009) Will give rise to the next generation of poor and excluded people

37 MDG 5 IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH Target 5A: reduce MMR by three-quarters, i.e. 11/100,000 Reduced by 44% from 1990 to under-30/100,000 by 2000; flat since/ no reduction since Further reduction MOH target is 20/100,000 by 2015 will be challenging. Target 5B: reproductive health ANC: aggregate level (one visit), very high But pockets missed almost altogether, e.g. Penan Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: low, and static for decades Unmet need: high 37

38 Deaths per 100,000 live births Maternal Mortality

39 Issues of Sexual Reproductive Health CPR stagnant since 1984 at around 50%, high unmet need with low fertility suggests abortions Mean age of marriage now 25 yrs Imply adolescent sexual activity leading to unwanted pregnancies, births, abandoned babies, child abuse RTI/STI: under-reporting (private sector) implications for modelling of HIV/AIDS Should review policies re SRH education, contraception (married/unmarried) & abortion 39

40 MDG 6: COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA, AND OTHER DISEASES Target 6A: halt & reverse HIV/AIDS On reported cases and screening: halted, perhaps even reversed but not clear if sustainable Reported cases on the decline in PM and Sabah, still rising in Sarawak, but from low levels Different transmission pattern between Peninsula, and Sabah & Sarawak: latter needs close monitoring, esp in view of apparently much higher incidence of STI s Shift of transmission mode from predominantly injecting drug use to increasingly sexual transmission Target 6B: Anti Retroviral Treatment (ART) for all on reported cases, covers majority; new recommended regime requires more resources 40

41 HIV & AIDS: decreasing case notification Notification rates: Number of cases detected: 2002: 28.5 cases per 100,000 population 2009: 10.8 cases per 100,000 population Based on total screened: 2002: 0.82% 2009: 0.25% Increased screening coverage from almost 673,000 in 2000 to over 1.21 million in 2009 Potential limitations: Screening bias Does not represent spread of infection Groups that receive routine HIV screening Women receiving ANC in government facilities Blood donors Inmates in Drug Rehabilitation Centres High risk prison inmates i.e. drug users, sex workers Confirmed TB cases STI cases Patients with suspected clinical symptoms Traced contacts of confirmed persons with HIV Premarital couples Migrant workers Participants of harm reduction programmes 41

42 Most at-risk populations (MARPs) Concentrated epidemic: Low prevalence (<0.5%) among general population High (>5%) in pockets of population in groups identified as having higher risk behaviour profile Injecting drug users Sex workers and their clients Men who have sex with men Transgender population Shift of transmission mode from a predominantly injecting drug use to increasingly more sexual transmission of HIV 42

43 Reported HIV cases, by region HIV transmission patterns vary between between Peninsula and East Malaysia. In the Peninsula, trends follow the national IDU driven epidemic (high notification rates in the east coast states) while transmission is mostly sexual in East Malaysia. 43

44 Halt & Reverse Malaria; TB Malaria: almost eliminated at national level Issue of proper denominator for incidence, as malaria is now restricted to pockets, e.g., Penan, Orang Asli, etc. In such pockets, the incidence can be very high TB: incidence has increased slightly since 1990 Tracking of Multi-Drug Resistant TB

45 MDG 7: ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Integrate principles of SD into policies & programmes, reverse loss of environmental resources, reduce biodiversity loss Framework in place; multilateral participation Realisations such as National Physical Plan; use of ODS established targets, e.g., at least 50% forest cover; totally protected areas Issues of adequacy of indicators, e.g., forest cover, fish stocks Issues of measurement, implementation, monitoring & evaluation 45

46 Forest cover 62% of country under forest cover. Data for Sabah/Sarawak: FRA 2010 suggests inadequate Includes: Primary Production (licensed for logging) Forest plantation, including exotic species Rubber plantation (allowed under FAO definition) Forest change to plantations and other land use should take into consideration socio-economic development needs of people e.g. impact on indigenous minorities 46

47 Threatened Species By 2008 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: Malaysia among top 20 countries with largest number of threatened mammal, bird and conifer species Mammals 70 species Birds 42 species Conifer 15 species 47

48 metric tonnes of CO2 per capita Carbon dioxide emissions selected countries, (metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion of Selected Countries Year Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia United Kingdom Japan Singapore Brunei Australia United States Source: Series data, Millennium Development Goals Indicators, the official United Nations site for the MDG Indicators 48

49 toe/ million $ (at constant 2000 price) Energy use per GDP Energy Use per GDP Year Hong Kong Thailand Ireland Malaysia Singapore Energy use per capita is highest in Malaysia compared to the other countries shown Source: Earth Trends/ World Resources Institute 49

50 Fish Stocks Decreased landings in Sabah and Sarawak Declines were greatest in the shallow depths (<50 m) where the biomass declined to 4 20% of the original estimates Fishery management programme to enhance conservation of fish resources; moratorium on issuance of fishing licenses. 50

51 m3/person/year Water Consumption Footprint Water Footprint* of Consumption External Internal Japan Indonesia Sweden Thailand Malaysia Country Source: Living Planet Report

52 Access to Safe Drinking Water and Basic Sanitation Starting from a high level of coverage of improved water & sanitation Nationally, well over 90% However, disparities between states, strata, ethnic groups (esp indigenous minorities), poor/nonpoor 52

53 % % Improved Sanitation facility Proportion of Population using Improved Sanitation Facility (Flush & Pour Flush), 2007 Johor Kedah Johor Kedah Kelantan Melaka N Sembilan Pahang P Pinang Perak State Perlis Selangor Terengganu Sabah Sarawak Malaysia Sanitation Facilities by Strata, 2007 Kelantan Melaka N Sembilan Pahang P Pinang Perak State Perlis Selangor Terengganu Sabah Sarawak Malaysia Pour Flush Flush Urban Rural Source: 2007 Household Income Survey Source: 2007 Household Income Survey Sanitation facilities only refer to flush and pour flush 53

54 Improvement in Lives of Slum Dwellers Total households in squatter settlements reduced by 9 per cent between 2004 and 2009 But controversy, disputes & conflicts over resolutions Sabah, Johor & Perak: increase in recent years 54

55 No. of Households No. of Households Proportion of urban population living in squatters settlements 120, ,000 Number of Households Living in Squatter Settlements in Malaysia Source: Ministry of Housing and Local Government, Malaysia website (Squatters Division) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Year 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Number of Households Living in Squatter Settlements - Sabah, Johor and Perak Year Sabah Johor Perak Source: Ministry of Housing and Local Government, Malaysia website (Squatters Division) 55

56 MDG 8 : DEVELOP GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT Malaysia is transitioning from net aid recipient to global partner, however As developing country, heavily dependent on trade, still faces issues of equitable market access for its output Seeks policy space as well as partnership in its attempt to transition to a high income economy While cooperating in addressing telecommunications needs of its partners, faces its own digital divide, and Faces significant problems of youth unemployment 56

57 From Recipient to Partner Net ODA receipts now at an insignificant % of donors GNI = 3% of expd. on social services in 9MP Contributions to multilateral organisations = RM341m from MTCP = RM563m under 9MP 57

58 Contribution to Global Partnership for Development South-South Cooperation MTCP Bilateral Initiatives Regional initiatives Multilateral Initiatives Preferential tariff treatment for Least Developed Countries Initiatives for decent and productive work for youth Improving access to essential drug Progress in technology development broadband/internet &telephony penetration 58

59 Thank you 59