2013 Round of GLA Population Projections, Ward Level and Ethnic Group

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1 Count 2013 Round of GLA Population Projections, Ward Level and Ethnic Group Headline statistics The total population of Barnet in is estimated to be 364,481 Colindale is Barnet s most populous ward containing 20,950 (5.7%) of Barnet s total population Totteridge is Barnet s least populous ward, containing 15,200 (4.2%) of Barnet s total population Burnt Oak is the Borough s most densely populated ward, with 8,586 residents per square km; Totteridge is the Borough s least densely populated ward with 1,726 residents per square km By, Colindale will overtake Burnt Oak to become Barnet s most densely populated ward More than 1 in 4 residents in Golders Green are aged 0-15 High Barnet, Garden Suburb and Totteridge have almost 2 in 10 residents aged 65+; Colindale and Burnt Oak have fewer than 1 in 10 Between and, Colindale is projected to grow by 57%; Golders Green is projected to grow by 31% Between and Barnet will become more diverse, with BAME groups making up 42% of Barnet s population Introduction The 2013 round of GLA ward level population projections uses the 2011 Census as the baseline and project Barnet s population all the way to These projections are based on trends in births and deaths, migration patterns and anticipated housing development. From 2011 to 2029, the projections use Department for Communities household formation rates data and Barnet s submitted estimated development trajectory. From 2029 onwards, the projections are linked to the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA), a survey which assesses the available land for development in future years. The ethnic group projections have not been released for 2013 at Borough level: instead the ethnic group projections from the 2012 SHLAA-based projections have been apportioned across the most recent Borough projections to ensure consistency in total population. Both the ward projections and ethnic group projections are consistent with the borough-level GLA Population Projections, which are detailed in the briefing note here, and which in turn inform the GLA s School Roll Projection data. Ward Population Projections In, Colindale is Barnet s most populous ward containing 5.7% of Barnet s total population (20,950 residents), whilst Totteridge is Barnet s least populous ward, containing 4.2% of Barnet s total population (15,200). Burnt Oak is the Borough s most densely populated ward, with 8,586 residents per square km; Totteridge is the least densely populated ward with 1,726 residents per square km Figure 1: Population by Ward, Page 1 of 5

2 Population per sq km Change from The Barnet average proportion of children aged 0 to 15 is 21.1%. Golders Green is the ward with the highest proportion of children aged 0 to 15 with more than one in 4 residents falling into this age range; it also has the highest population of children compared to all other wards. Burnt Oak also has a high proportion of children (approximately 1 in 4 residents). 65% of Barnet s total population is in the age range 16 to 64 years. 69% of Colindale s population is working age, and this ward also has the highest number of working age residents. Other wards with high proportions of working age adults are Coppetts and West Finchley. Golders Green has the lowest proportion of working age residents (60%); Totteridge, Garden Suburb and Edgware also have relatively low proportions of working age residents. 13.9% of Barnet s total population is aged 65+. High Barnet (17.9%), Garden Suburb (17.8%) and Totteridge (17.8%) have the highest proportion of retirement aged residents; Garden Suburb has the highest number (2,850). Colindale and Burnt Oak have the lowest proportions of retirement age adults (less than 1 in 10 residents) and the lowest number of retirement age residents. Population Change from Between and, Colindale and Mill Hill are projected to show the greatest change in total population. Between and, Colindale is projected to increase by over 50%; while Golders Green is projected to grow by almost 30% and Mill Hill is projected to grow by more than 10%. Coppetts has the largest decrease in total population size between and, losing 1.1% of its population in. 40.0% 0.0% - Figure 2: Percentage Change in Total Population from, Ward Level Percentage Change between and Percentage Change between and Between and, Colindale s population density is expected to increase by more than 4,000 people per square km; Golders Green s population density is projected to increase by approximately 2,000 people per square km, going from Barnet s 9 th most densely populated ward in to the 3 rd most densely populated ward in. This population growth is driven by the Brent Cross Cricklewood regeneration scheme Figure 3: Population Density, Ward Level,, and Density () Density () Density () Page 2 of 5

3 % of ward population % of ward population Age Structure Change from The proportion of children in Barnet remains broadly the same from (21.1%) to (21.4%). Wards which see the biggest increase in the proportion of children are Colindale, Hendon and West Hendon. Wards which see a significant decrease in the proportion of children include: Golders Green (the population increase in this ward is likely driven by an increase in the population aged over 15) and Brunswick Park. Golder s Green already has the highest proportion of children, and it is likely that this population of children is expected to age into working age before the next generation of children are born. Across Barnet, the proportion of working age adults is projected to decrease from 65% to 64% of the population by. Most wards see a decrease in the proportion of working age adults; Golders Green is the only ward to see an increase in the proportion of working age adults from 60.4% in to 63.5% in. 70.0% 68.0% 66.0% 64.0% 62.0% 58.0% Figure 4: Proportion of Population Aged16-64 Years, Ward Level Across Barnet, the proportion of retirement aged residents is expected to increase from 13.9% in to 14.6% in. Most wards are projected to see an increase in the proportion of retirement aged populations; Colindale and Golders Green are the only wards to have a decrease in the proportion of retirement aged residents. 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Figure 5: Proportion of Population Aged 65+ Years, Ward Level Ethnic Group Projections 1 In, the White ethnic group comprises 62% of the Barnet population; with the remaining BAME population comprised of Other Asian (9%), Indian (7.6%), Other (6.9%), Black African (5.7%), Black Other (3.1%), Chinese (2.4%), Pakistani (1.5%), Black Caribbean (1.3%) and Bangladeshi (0.7%). 1 The GLA s aggregated Ethnic Group descriptions are provided in the appendix of this briefing note Page 3 of 5

4 Change from to By, the White British population is projected to decrease in proportion to the total population (from 62% to 58%). All other ethnic groups show a slight increase, except for Indian, which decreases slightly in proportion from 7.6% of the total population in to 7% of the total population in. Figure 6: Barnet Total Population, by Ethnic Group Other Chinese Pakistani Black Other Black Caribbean All Ethnicities Count Between and, the total number of people aged 0-14 is projected to increase by 9%; the years old total population is projected to increase by 5.8%; and the 65+ year total population is projected to increase by 12.6%. The Other Asian ethnic group is projected to see the greatest percentage increase between and with relatively large increases across all age ranges. The Indian ethnic group is the only ethnic group with a projected decrease in the number of residents aged (-0.2%) and minimal change in the 0-14 population (1.2%). This is countered by an increase in the 65+ population of 27.2%. This indicates Barnet s Indian population may already be fairly aged (late 50s), and are likely to move into retirement age by without having any more children. The Chinese ethnic group sees the greatest increase in its aged 65+ population (79.9%), whilst the Other ethnic group is projected to increase by 77.6% in this age range. 80.0% 40.0% 0.0% - Figure 7: Percentage Change in Ethnic Group, by Age Category, to All Any queries should be directed to Caylin Joski-Jethi, Business Intelligence Officer, Caylin.Joski- Page 4 of 5

5 Appendix 1: Derivation of ethnic group classification from 2011 Census Ethnic Categories ONS 2011 Census Ethnic Category GLA Aggregated Ethnic Group (AEG) GLA White or BAME White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British White: Irish White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller White: Other White Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean White Black Caribbean White Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African Black African Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black Caribbean Black Other Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black African Asian/Asian British: Indian Indian Asian/Asian British: Pakistani Pakistani BAME Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Asian/Asian British: Chinese Chinese Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Asian Asian/Asian British: Other Asian Other Asian Mixed/multiple ethnic group: Other Mixed Other ethnic group: Arab Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group Other Appendix 2: The relationship between population, ward, and School Roll Projections Page 5 of 5

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