About PBA Responsibilities of PBA: PBA s involvement in a project can be structured in one of four ways: About MPC Responsibilities of MPC:

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3 The Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA) is comprised of the Public Building Authority of the County of Knox and City of Knoxville, Tennessee (PBA) and the Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC). About PBA PBA develops, constructs, owns, and/or maintains facilities on behalf of the City Knoxville and Knox County pursuant to operating contracts with those entities. Responsibilities of PBA: Construction, management, operation, and lease of various public facilities owned by PBA. Construction, management, and operation of facilities owned by Knox County and the City of Knoxville. Specification, acquisition, maintenance, operation, and supervision of the telephone and telecommunication infrastructure owned by Knox County and/or the City of Knoxville. Provision of telecommunications consultation and advice for/to Knox County and/or the City of Knoxville. PBA s involvement in a project can be structured in one of four ways: PBA can own and construct the project. The municipality can own the project, and PBA can construct the project pursuant to an operating agreement. Construction and professional contracts are then in PBA s name. The municipality can own the project, and PBA can oversee construction as agent for the municipality. The construction and professional contracts are then in the municipality s name. PBA may act as a consultant, advisor, and/or subject matter expert in completing studies, project plans, and similar activities. About MPC The Metropolitan Planning Commission was established in 1956 by Knoxville and Knox County as the agency responsible for comprehensive planning and administration of zoning and land subdivision regulations and remains so today. Responsibilities of MPC: Prepares and adopts a general plan. Reviews subdivision regulations and site plans. Prepares and recommends zoning ordinances and maps to the Knox County Commission and Knoxville City Council. Reviews proposed zoning amendments. Prepares a capital improvements plan for the City of Knoxville. An appointed executive director and a staff of forty work in four divisions: Comprehensive Planning, Development Services, Information Services, and Transportation Planning. MPC performs special purpose studies and analyses of significant issues commissioned by city or county government, e.g. voting district boundary revisions, impact studies for major development proposals, and annexation studies. MPC has developed considerable expertise in the areas of enrollment forecasting, site selection, and school zone analysis in previous work completed for Knox County Schools, Loudon County Schools, and Lenoir City Schools.

4 Contributors PBA Dale Smith, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Galyon, Director Linn Slocum, Office Manager/Contract Administrator Kristin Cowan, Contract/Cost Compliance Administrator Andrew Johnson Building 912 S. Gay St., Ste. 710 Knoxville, TN (865) MPC Mark Donaldson, Executive Director Terry Gilhula, Assistant Manager, Research Tim Kuhn, Assistant Manager, Geographic Information Systems Alex Zendel, Geographic Information Systems Analyst Bryan Berry, Research Associate Sarah Powell, Graphic Designer City/County Building 400 Main St., Ste. 403 Knoxville, TN (865) PEFA appreciates the assistance and expertise provided by the Sullivan County Mayor s Office, Sullivan County Department of Planning and Zoning, Sullivan County Property Assessor, and Sullivan County Department of Education.

5 CONTENTS Executive Summary...7 I. Introduction...15 II. Sullivan County Public School System...17 III. Recent Trends in Enrollment, Demographics, Development, and Annexation...19 IV. Systemwide Enrollment Projections...43 V. School-By-School Enrollment Projections...55 VI. Capacities of School Facilities...87 VII. Findings...91 Appendices Appendix A: Sullivan County Demographics...97 Appendix B: Sullivan County Residential Development Activity...99 Appendix C: Facility Capacity Calculations Appendix D: Literature...131

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7 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC), collaborating in a Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA), have developed 10-year enrollment projections and building capacity measures for public schools operated by the Sullivan County Department of Education. This report is the first phase of assessment of Sullivan County schools. A second phase should include an evaluation of the physical condition of each school facility in the system. A third and final phase is the process by which local decision makers act on the information provided in phases one and two. The outcome should be a mutually agreed upon facilities plan for the school system. RECENT TRENDS IN ENROLLMENT, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEVELOPMENT, AND ANNEXATION A. Enrollment Trends 1. Systemwide enrollments Based on student address data, total Sullivan County system enrollment dropped steadily over the past four years, down from 12,403 in 2004/05 to 12,019 this year, an average decline of 1.0 percent per year. This trend was consistent with longer term observations that showed student population decreases each year since 1999/00 (1,200 fewer students since the start of the decade). The 384-student decline from 2004/05 totals was comprised primarily of elementary school losses. Elementary enrollment shrunk 215, a 3.9 percent drop. Middle schools lost 135 students (4.5 percent decline), while high school numbers were comparatively stable, down only 34 over four years. 2. School-level enrollments Among individual schools, highest percentage enrollment declines were seen at Akard Elementary (-15.9 percent per year), Kingsley Elementary (-7.8 percent per year), Cedar Grove Elementary (-6.9 percent per year), Blountville Elementary (-5.3 percent per year), and Central Heights Elementary (-4.4 percent per year). Schools with recent enrollment gains included Valley Pike Elementary (4.5 percent per year), Bluff City Elementary (3.4 percent per year), and Emmett Elementary (2.5 percent per year). Mary Hughes School, serving grades K through 8, experienced decline in its 6-8 enrollment (down 50 students in the past three years) but modest gains in elementary school numbers (up 17 students). 3. Out-of-district student transfers The Sullivan County system accepted nearly 300 transfers from outside the district, but it lost more than 600 students to the city school systems in Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport, a net loss of 353 children. TOTAL ENROLLMENT, 2004/ /08 Total Total Annual Annual School Year Total Change Change (%) 2004/05 12,403 n/a n/a 2005/06 12, /07 12, /08 12, Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, Student Address Data,

8 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 B. Demographic Trends 1. Countywide population change In 1980, Sullivan County population totaled 144,388. By 1990, the total dropped slightly to 143,886. The 1990s saw a period of economic growth that drove a population increase of 6.3 percent, or roughly 6,100 new residents. Between 2000 and 2006, total population in Sullivan County grew by only 191 persons, or 0.1 percent, for a current count of 153,239. Neighboring Washington (TN) and Hawkins counties experienced population gains over six percent each, consistent with the statewide average. 2. Natural increase and net migration Changes in Sullivan County s general population were the result of two demographic forces: natural increase and net migration. Between 2000 and 2006, the county marked average population losses of 189 persons per year as deaths outpaced births. Offsetting those losses were net gains from in-migration, recording a six-year annual average of 319 persons. 3. Population by age group The number of persons under five years of age fell 7.2 percent over the past seven years, roughly 600 fewer children in 2006 than recorded in Children in the 5-17 years category also showed diminishing numbers, down 931, or 3.7 percent, since The adult/working age population (18-64 years of age) saw no change. Senior population, persons 65 years and over, grew sizably, up 1,800 persons, or 7.3 percent. In just seven years, Sullivan County s median age increased from 40.1 to 42.3 years. C. Residential Development Activity 1. All housing unit types From 1990 to 2006, Sullivan County added 15,178 new housing units, an average of 893 units per year. Construction activity was high during the 1990s when more than 1,000 units were added to the countywide inventory each year, peaking in 1994 at 1,376 new homes. Rates declined in the 2000s, down 28 percent to 728 units per year. While the county continues to see new housing construction, each unit is home to fewer people, presently 2.26 persons per household. 2. Student yield from new housing Student yield, the number of children (ages 5-17 years) generated by new housing, varies by housing type, number of bedrooms, value, geographic location, and other factors. Anecdotal evidence often suggests that a new single dwelling detached unit generates two schoolage children, however, the actual average for Sullivan County is per unit. D. Annexation 1. Annexation history Since 1990, 16,600 acres of unincorporated portions of Sullivan County were annexed by the cities of Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport. Average annual annexation totals dropped sharply this decade when compared to figures reported for the 1990s. Bristol annexed an average of acres each year from 1990 through This decade, the average fell to acres per year. Similarly, Kingsport s annexations shrunk from acres per year last decade, to acres per year since Students affected by annexation Based on student address data, 37 Sullivan County public school children resided in areas annexed by Bristol and Kingsport in the past four years. Johnson City s annexations included no student households. Since 2002, Sullivan County systemwide enrollment declined 768 students. If current city-system students living in areas annexed since 2002 were added back into the Sullivan County system this year, only 57 children would be returned, and net loss would still be 711 students over the six year period. The bulk of the decline in the Sullivan County system, therefore, cannot be attributed to recent annexations. Changing demographics in Sullivan County and older (1990s) annexations were the sources. The Sullivan County school service area is comprised of families with few or declining numbers of school children, while growth areas are now parts of Bristol and Kingsport. 3. Rock Springs annexations The City of Kingsport s forthcoming Rock Springs annexations in southwest Sullivan County have the potential to affect county enrollments at a scale similar to annexations of the early 1990s. Scheduled to occur in several phases through 2011, Rock Springs annexations will take residential areas of Sullivan County that are currently home to 436 public school children. While it is difficult to predict actual family behavior in the first year or two after annexation, historical choice-making patterns indicate most families will leave the Sullivan 8

9 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS system over time. It is believed that many families will leave as children graduate out of elementary and middle school rather than exiting mid-stream. Additionally, families with older children in the Sullivan system might choose to keep younger siblings in the system longer. SYSTEMWIDE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Three enrollment projection models were developed for Sullivan County schools, comprising low, moderate, and accelerated growth scenarios for school years 2008/09 through 2017/18. All three projection models showed enrollment declines over the next several years across the Sullivan County school system. Most dramatic were student losses forecast by the Low Growth model, which predicted 2,260 fewer students systemwide by 2017/18, an 18.8 percent drop. Under this scenario, declines will be steady each year of the forecast period, driven by lower grade progression ratios, lower kindergarten-to-birth ratios, and fewer annual births. The second enrollment projection model, Moderate Growth, was based on assumptions that average levels of grade progressions, kindergarten-to-birth ratios, and births recorded over the past four years will carry into the next 10 years. As a result, the Moderate scenario showed a trend of continued slow decline in systemwide numbers, consistent with the trend reported since ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2004/ /18 School SYSTEMWIDE Year Actual Low Mod. Accel. 2004/05 12, /06 12, /07 12, /08 12, /09 11,725 11,867 11, /10 11,354 11,648 11, /11 11,030 11,443 11, /12 10,766 11,293 11, /13 10,507 11,170 11, /14 10,277 11,077 11, /15 10,107 11,035 11, /16 9,977 11,024 11, /17 9,865 11,022 11, /18 9,759 11,011 12,006 Net Change ,260-1, % Change The Accelerated Growth model predicted steady enrollment losses throughout the first five years of the forecast period, but the 2013/14 school year will mark a turnaround. By the end of the forecast horizon, systemwide enrollments will return to levels measured in 2007/08. The Accelerated model was driven by higher than average grade progression ratios and kindergartento-birth ratios, as well as higher rates of county births. SYSTEMWIDE: ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2004/ /18 13,000 12,500 12,000 Enrollment 11,500 11,000 10,500 Actual Enrollment Low Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario 10,000 9,500 9, / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 School Year 9

10 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 SCHOOL-BY-SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY SCHOOL, 2008/ /18 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO School 2007/ / / / / / / / / / /18 Akard Elementary Blountville Elementary Bluff City Elementary Brookside Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Central Heights Elementary Emmett Elementary Holston Elementary Indian Springs Elementary Kingsley Elementary Miller Perry Elementary Rock Springs Elementary Sullivan Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary/Middle Ketron Intermediate Blountville Middle Bluff City Middle Colonial Heights Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle Central High 1,058 1,099 1,092 1,072 1, East High 1,004 1, ,013 1,020 North High South High 1,105 1,097 1,

11 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS CAPACITIES OF SCHOOL FACILITIES A. Introduction Facility capacity is an important measure of a school system s ability to adequately serve its population. Strains on capacity cause problems: class sizes that exceed accepted teacher-pupil ratios restrict attention to individual student needs; auditoriums, gymnasiums, libraries, and storage rooms might be called upon to serve as classroom space; or, swelling enrollments might dictate the addition of portable classrooms, building wings, or entire facilities. Schools that operate well below capacity suffer problems of a different kind. Beyond the inefficiencies of operating a physical plant that is not fully utilized, under-populated schools often are unable to offer courses, programs, and extracurricular activities available at fully-utilized facilities. There are several ways to measure facility capacity and to evaluate capacity-related problems. Three types, functional, design, and floor area capacity, have particular merit and are included in this report. B. Measures of School Facility Capacity 1. Functional capacity Functional capacity accommodates a school s programmatic issues in its measure of ability to adequately serve students. Current usage of educational program space and the pre-determined number of students assigned to each space (based on state-designated teacher-pupil ratios) comprise the basic formula. Special education resource rooms, reading centers, computer laboratories, and performing arts centers are excluded from space totals. Additionally, middle and high school capacity numbers are assigned a utilization factor that further reduces carrying capacity, under the rationale that scheduling requirements make it impossible to assign students to all teaching stations every period of every day. 2. Design capacity Design capacity is measured by counting the number of classrooms in a school and multiplying by maximum-allowable class size (based on mandated or recommended standards for teacher-pupil ratios). Design capacity is curriculum-neutral, allowing school administrators flexibility when evaluating building space. 3. Floor area capacity Floor area capacity is the ratio of the number of students to total building floor area. The ratio is compared to generally accepted standards which guide administrators, architects, and other decision-makers on the amount of new footage necessary to meet modern facility needs. 4. Core spaces Functional and design capacity measures do not include core spaces, that is, the non-instructional areas of a school facility, such as cafeterias, hallways, offices, and storage rooms. Core space needs should be evaluated separately in a second phase of Sullivan County facilities assessment and include a school-by-school inventory and examination of all physical plant and campus space. 5. Capacity thresholds If enrollments have reached 100 percent or more of functional or design capacity, a facility is fully occupied. When enrollments reach 80 to 90 percent of functional or design limits, it is time to start looking at anticipated future enrollments, evaluate potential space needs, and consider options to alleviate capacity strains. If a facility is less than 65 percent occupied, it has surplus capacity, and it is necessary to assess potential space needs and options to make better use of facility space. For floor area capacity, thresholds include generally accepted standards such as 150 square feet per elementary student, 170 square feet per middle school student, and 190 square feet per high school student. 11

12 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 C. Sullivan County School Facility Capacities CURRENT ENROLLMENT, ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS, FACILITY CAPACITIES Current Projected Projected Floor Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Functional Design Area School 2007/ / /18 Capacity Capacity Capacity Akard Elementary Blountville Elementary Bluff City Elementary Brookside Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Central Heights Elementary Emmett Elementary Holston Elementary Indian Springs Elementary Kingsley Elementary Miller Perry Elementary Rock Springs Elementary Sullivan Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary/Middle Ketron Intermediate Blountville Middle , Bluff City Middle Colonial Heights Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle Central High 1, ,437 1,750 1,070 East High 1, ,020 1,496 1,820 1,030 North High ,641 2,020 1,361 South High 1, ,573 1,890 1,354 Systemwide Total 12,023 11,170 11,011 16,683 21,155 12,988 Notes: 1. Current enrollment figures presented here include out-of-district transfers. Internal Sullivan County transfers have been neutralized. That is, enrollment counts of Sullivan County residents are by assigned school zone (based on student address), not by actual school attended. 2. Projected enrollments based on Moderate Growth Scenario. FINDINGS A. Current Conditions This school year, Sullivan County schools have room for 16,683 students systemwide, based on functional capacity numbers. With current enrollment just over 12,000, about 72.1 percent of the system s functional capacity is in use. Considerable variation in rates of space usage exists from school to school. Among the 16 elementary schools, 10 currently operate at or above the functional capacity threshold of 85 percent in use. Seven of those fall within the first level of capacity strain, ranging from 85 to 89 percent in use. At this level, space shortages are not problematic, but attention is warranted. Three elementary schools, Bluff City, Cedar Grove, and Valley Pike, are operating at 91 percent of functional capacity, falling into a higher level of priority need. Colonial Heights Middle School currently operates at 97.2 percent of functional capacity. None of the four high schools demonstrate functional capacity strains. North High, in fact, shows considerable space surplus, currently operating at just over 50 percent of functional capacity. Similarly, several middle schools are operating with substantial surplus. Sullivan Middle, showing only 39.4 percent usage, is a priority. 12

13 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS B. Future Conditions, Five Years (2012/13) C. Future Conditions, Ten Years (2017/18) Because of projected enrollment declines over the next five years, several schools dropped off the list of potentially strained facilities, including Central Heights Elementary, Holston Elementary, Miller Perry Elementary, Rock Springs Elementary, and Colonial Heights Middle. Some schools fell to a lower priority of shortage, such as Cedar Grove, which went from 90.7 percent of functional capacity in use to 85.0 percent. Colonial Heights recorded notable change, dropping from 97.2 percent usage in 2007/08 to 81.6 percent in 2012/13, the result of Kingsport annexations in the Rock Springs area. In fact, most schools in the South zone were impacted by the annexations. Conditions of strain grew at three facilities, Valley Pike, Weaver, and Mary Hughes. Systemwide, none of the middle or high schools showed functional capacity shortages by 2012/13. All but three are expected to operate with space surplus within five years. Systemwide enrollments are projected to decline 160 students between 2012/13 and 2017/18. Total functional surplus will grow to 34 percent, up from 33 percent in 2012/13 and 28 percent in 2007/08. Surpluses will be greatest at the middle and high school levels, although one elementary school, Rock Springs, will make that list also, the result of Kingsport annexations. Bluff City Elementary and Valley Pike Elementary will remain high priority schools in terms of space shortages by 2017/18, reporting 98.0 and percent capacity in use, respectively. Mary Hughes and Weaver will exceed 90 percent of functional capacity. Brookside, Cedar Grove, Central Heights, and Indian Springs will show usage in the 85 to 90 percent range, worth continued monitoring. SCHOOL CAPACITY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS, 2007/ /18 SPACE SHORTAGES Proportion of Functional Functional Capacity School Enrollment Capacity In Use (%) 2007/08 Bluff City Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Colonial Heights Middle /13 Bluff City Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary/Middle /18 Bluff City Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary/Middle

14 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 SCHOOL CAPACITY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS, 2007/ /18 SPACE SURPLUSES Proportion of Functional Functional Capacity School Enrollment Capacity In Use (%) 2007/08 Blountville Middle Bluff City Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle North High 866 1, /13 Blountville Middle Bluff City Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle North High 843 1, /18 Blountville Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle Central High 838 1, North High 734 1, South High 894 1,

15 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS I. INTRODUCTION The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC), collaborating in a Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA), have developed 10-year enrollment projections and building capacity measures for public schools operated by the Sullivan County Department of Education. Included in this report are several elements: a) overview of recent trends in public school enrollment, demographics, land development, and annexation in Sullivan County; b) systemwide enrollment projections; c) school-by-school enrollment projections; d) definitions of school capacity measures; e) schoolby-school capacity calculations and comparison with enrollments (actual and projected); and, f) summary of findings. This report represents the first phase of assessment of Sullivan County schools. The material presented here provides local officials with a decision-making tool kit to inform county officials, school administrators, and representatives on County Commission and the Board of Education of current and future school system needs. A second phase should include an evaluation of the physical condition of each school facility in the system. Structural, architectural, mechanical, electrical, and site inspections would identify strengths and deficiencies within the physical plant inventory of the county school system. A third and final phase is the process by which local decision makers act on the information provided in phases one and two. Future enrollment growth and decline should be assessed in conjunction with a review of facility capabilities to accommodate enrollment change, discussed in a joint forum of county and school officials. The outcome should be a mutually agreed upon facilities plan for the school system. 15

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17 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS II. SULLIVAN COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM The public school system operated by the Sullivan County Department of Education is comprised of 26 facilities offering regular day instruction: 14 elementary schools, two combined elementary/middle schools, one intermediate school, five middle schools, and four high schools (Figure 1). The system is divided into four zones, each based on a high school attendance zone and comprised of nested feeder elementary and middle school attendance zones (Figure 2). Grade offerings vary across the system. Figure 1 SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS Kingsley Elem Ketron Int Brookside Elem Cedar Grove Elem Central Heights Elem Akard Elem Bristol Valley Pike Elem Holston Valley Mid North High Kingsport Indian Springs Elem Central High Blountville Elem Blountville Mid East High Weaver Elem Emmett Elem Rock Springs Elem South High Sullivan Elem Colonial Heights Mid Sullivan Mid Miller Perry Elem Holston Elem/Mid Bluff City Elem Bluff City Mid Bluff City Mary Hughes Johnson City Figure 2 SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ZONE FEEDER SYSTEM CENTRAL ZONE Akard Elementary Blountville Elementary Central Heights Blountville Middle Holston Elementary Indian Springs Holston Middle Central High K EAST ZONE Bluff City Elementary Weaver Elementary Bluff City Middle Emmett Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Holston Valley Middle Mary Hughes School East High NORTH ZONE Brookside Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Kingsley Elementary Ketron Intermediate North High SOUTH ZONE Miller Perry Elementary Rock Springs Elementary Colonial Heights Middle Sullivan Elementary Sullivan Middle South High K Legend: Elementary School Middle School High School 17

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19 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS III. RECENT TRENDS IN ENROLLMENT, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEVELOPMENT, AND ANNEXATION Several factors were evaluated in the preparation of enrollment projections for Sullivan County public schools: past and current enrollments; general demographic trends; land development activity; and, annexation. A. Enrollment Trends 1. Systemwide enrollments Based on student address data provided by the Sullivan County Department of Education, systemwide enrollment declined steadily over the past four years, down from 12,403 in 2004/05 to 12,019 this year, an average decline of 1.0 percent per year (Table 1 and Figure 3). This trend was consistent with longer term observations that have shown student population decreases each year since 1999/00, when total enrollment was 13,175 (Tennessee Department of Education, Report Card 2000). Compared to current totals, the Sullivan County public school system is operating with almost 1,200 fewer students since the start of the decade. (Note: Special Education enrollments are included in the totals reported in this study.) Table 1 ENROLLMENT BY GRADE, 2004/ /08 Total Total Annual Annual School Year K Total Change Change (%) 2004/ ,011 1, ,149 1, ,403 n/a n/a 2005/ ,004 1,028 1,140 1, , / ,027 1,140 1, , / ,135 1, , Year Average ,008 1,141 1, , Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, Student Address Data, Figure 3 12,900 SULLIVAN COUNTY SYSTEMWIDE ENROLLMENT HISTORY AVERAGE DAILY MEMBERSHIP, 2002/ /08 12,700 Average Daily Membership (ADM) 12,500 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,700 11, / / / / / /08 School Year Total ADM ADM Minus Sp. Ed. 19

20 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 The 384-student decline from 2004/05 totals was comprised primarily of elementary school (grades kindergarten through 5) losses. Elementary enrollment shrunk 215, a 3.9 percent drop. Middle schools (grades 6 through 8) lost 135 students (4.5 percent decline), while high school (grades 9 through 12) numbers were comparatively stable, down only 34 since 2004/05 (Table 2 and Figure 4). Declining enrollments at the elementary school ranks hint at further overall losses in the near future as smaller-sized student cohorts work through the middle and high schools in the next few years. 2. School-level enrollments Among individual schools, highest percentage enrollment declines were seen at Akard Elementary (-15.9 percent per year), Kingsley Elementary (-7.8 percent per year), Cedar Grove Elementary (-6.9 percent per year), Blountville Elementary (-5.3 percent per year), and Central Heights Elementary (-4.4 percent per year). In all, 16 schools recorded average annual enrollment losses in the past three years (Table 3). Two of the aforementioned schools, Cedar Grove and Kingsley, serve the North school zone. The North zone was Table 2 ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2004/ /08 Change Change Change Change Change Change from from from from from from Elementary Previous Previous Middle Previous Previous High Previous Previous School Year K-5 Year Year (%) 6-8 Year Year (%) 9-12 Year Year (%) 2004/05 5,472 n/a n/a 3,019 n/a n/a 3,912 n/a n/a 2005/06 5, , , /07 5, , , /08 5, , , / / Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, Student Address Data, Figure 4 ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2004/ /08 6,000 5,000 4,000 Enrollment 3,000 2,000 1, / / / /08 School Year Elementary (K-5) Middle (6-8) High (9-12) 20

21 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS particularly affected by enrollment losses in recent years. One of its schools, Gravely Elementary, was closed after the 2004/05 school year, and its students were assigned to Brookside, Cedar Grove, and Kingsley. The area s realignment included adjustment to the grade structures at each of the schools. The elementary schools became K-4 facilities, Ketron Intermediate was assigned grades 5-7, and North High was reconfigured as an 8-12 facility. Schools with recent enrollment gains included Valley Pike Elementary (4.5 percent per year), Bluff City Elementary (3.4 percent per year), and Emmett Elementary (2.5 percent per year). Mary Hughes School, serving grades K through 8, experienced decline in its 6-8 enrollment (down 50 students in the past three years) but modest gains in elementary school numbers (up 17 students). 3. Out-of-zone and out-of-district student transfers The Sullivan County Department of Education has a clearly articulated student transfer policy. Transfers from one school to another within the county (out-of-zone) and from other systems (out-of-district) are considered only when adequate classroom space is available in a requested school. If enrollments exceed Tennessee Department of Education mandated class-size averages, transfers are denied. In the 2007/08 school year, 215 students transferred from one Sullivan County school to another in the Table 3 ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL, 2004/ /08 Avg. Enroll. 05/06-06/07- Average 05/06-06/07 07/08 Annual School 2004/ / / /08 07/08 Change (%) Change (%) Change (%) Akard Elementary Blountville Elementary Bluff City Elementary Brookside Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Central Heights Elementary Emmett Elementary Gravely Elementary (closed) Holston Elementary Indian Springs Elementary Kingsley Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary Miller Perry Elementary Rock Springs Elementary Sullivan Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Ketron Intermediate Blountville Middle Bluff City Middle Colonial Heights Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Mary Hughes Middle Sullivan Middle Central High 1,054 1,035 1,027 1,043 1, East High 1,023 1,025 1,050 1,013 1, North High South High 1,046 1,078 1,112 1,104 1, Systemwide Total 12,403 12,339 12,126 12,019 12, Note: Due to major changes after the 2004/05 school year (closing of Gravely Elementary, grade realignment at Brookside Elementary, Cedar Grove Elementary, Kingsley Elementary, Ketron Intermediate, and North High), rates of enrollment change were calculated only for 2005/06 through 2007/08. Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, Student Address Data,

22 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 system. Highest net recipients of out-of-zone transfers included Holston Elementary/Middle (31), North High (26), and Mary Hughes (20). Most schools were net recipients of fewer than 15 out-of-zone students, and several recorded no gains from transfers. Out-of-district transfers into Sullivan County schools totaled 282 in 2007/08, roughly 2.3 percent of the system s total enrollment (Table 4). South High and North High attracted the largest numbers, 63 and 46, respectively. Central and East high schools also accepted more than 20 outof-district transfers each. While the Sullivan County system accepted nearly 300 transfers from outside the district, it lost more than 600 students to the city school systems in Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport (Table 5). As a result, the Sullivan system had a net loss of 353 children from district transfers. 4. Private school and homeschool enrollment Another factor influencing Sullivan County public school enrollments was private school/homeschool choice-making by local families. Census Bureau figures showed that approximately six percent of Sullivan County s school-age children (living outside the county s incorporated places) were homeschooled or attended private schools. 5. Treatment of pre-school enrollment It is important to note that enrollment figures evaluated in this study do not include pre-school children participating in Sullivan County s public school program. Under existing education mandates of the State of Tennessee, children are not required to attend pre-school, and they are not Table 4 STUDENTS BY SCHOOL ZONE ASSIGNMENT, 2007/08 Sullivan Out of County District Total School Zone Students Students Students Akard Elementary Blountville Elementary Bluff City Elementary Brookside Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary Central Heights Elementary Emmett Elementary Holston Elementary Indian Springs Elementary Kingsley Elementary Miller Perry Elementary Rock Springs Elementary Sullivan Elementary Valley Pike Elementary Weaver Elementary Mary Hughes Elementary/Middle Ketron Intermediate Blountville Middle Bluff City Middle Colonial Heights Middle Holston Middle Holston Valley Middle Sullivan Middle Central High 1, ,053 East High ,005 North High South High 1, ,108 Systemwide Total 11, ,019 Notes: 1. For students living in Sullivan County: enrollment counts by school zone are based on student addresses (i.e., assigned zone), not actual school attended. 2. For out of district students: enrollment counts by school zone are based on actual school attended. Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, Student Address Data, October Table 5 SULLIVAN COUNTY STUDENTS ENROLLED IN CITY SCHOOL SYSTEMS, 2007/08 Total System Transfers Bristol, Tennessee City Schools 385 Johnson City Schools 31 Kingsport City Schools 219 Total 635 Source Data: Sullivan County Department of Education, August,

23 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS accommodated in the state s Basic Education Program (BEP) funding. That may change in the near future if initiatives currently under evaluation by the Governor s Office are adopted. The governor has proposed a plan that would provide public pre-school education to any four-year-old child wishing to participate. Since children are not required to attend pre-school, and since many private instruction opportunities exist in Sullivan County, it was not practical to model the choices of families in terms of pre-school enrollment. As a result, pre-kindergarten projections were not included in this study. However, the classroom space currently dedicated to pre-kindergarten education at local public schools was addressed. In the section on facility capacities, the inventory of rooms assigned to pre-kindergarten instruction was set aside and reserved for future pre-school use. Rooms were not re-assigned to current or future K-12 enrollments. B. Demographic Trends Total enrollments steadily fell over the past several years, attributed in part to transfers into nearby city school systems and families opting for homeschools or private schools. However, shrinking enrollment numbers also occurred as a result of factors entirely separate from education system influence, the result of changes in the county s population as a whole. Those factors are given attention in this section. 1. Countywide population change Between 2000 and 2006, total population in Sullivan County grew by 191 persons, roughly 0.1 percent, for a current count of 153,239 (Table 6). Neighboring Washington (TN) and Hawkins counties experienced population gains over six percent each, consistent with the statewide average. Other adjacent counties recorded only modest growth, but higher than the rate measured in Sullivan. The 2006 population total for Sullivan County represented a turnaround from a trend of decline seen between 2001 and This decade s mix of population decline and recovery was similar to a trend observed a couple of decades ago. In 1980, Sullivan County population totaled 144,388. By 1990, the total dropped slightly to 143,886. The 1990s saw a period of economic growth in Sullivan County that drove a population increase of 6.3 percent, or roughly 6,100 new residents. Among incorporated places within Sullivan County, recent rates of growth varied (Table 7). Notable were the differences between Bristol and Kingsport. Bristol experienced 2.1 percent gains in the past seven years, climbing to 25,351 residents in Kingsport, on the other hand, lost about 850 residents over the same period, a 2.0 percent drop. (Note: Additional demographic measures of Sullivan County are presented in Appendix A.) Table 6 POPULATION ESTIMATES, SULLIVAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREA Total Average Change (%) Annual Area Change (%) Sullivan County 153, , , , , , , Carter County 56,742 56,936 56,889 58,414 58,600 58,884 59, Hawkins County 53,563 54,221 54,696 55,158 55,575 56,203 56, Johnson County 17,499 17,757 17,809 17,967 18,004 18,077 18, Unicoi County 17,667 17,573 17,647 17,700 17,649 17,599 17, Washington County 107, , , , , , , Scott County, VA 23,403 23,209 23,081 22,996 22,968 22,899 22, Washington County, VA 51,103 51,222 51,289 51,384 51,711 51,918 51, Bristol city, VA only 17,367 17,305 17,088 17,332 17,359 17,391 17, Tennessee 5,689,283 5,746,477 5,788,333 5,834,358 5,885,597 5,955,745 6,038, Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, March 22,

24 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS April 7, 2008 Table 7 SUB-COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES, Total Average Change (%) Annual Area Change (%) Bluff City, Total 1,559 1,553 1,552 1,574 1,572 1,600 1, Bristol, TN, Total 24,821 25,328 25,328 25,163 25,032 25,129 25, Bristol, VA, Total 17,367 17,305 17,088 17,332 17,359 17,391 17, Johnson City, Total 55,469 55,796 57,077 57,213 57,618 58,683 59, Kingsport, Total 44,905 44,599 44,452 44,330 44,052 44,103 44, Sullivan County 153, , , , , , , Bluff City 1,559 1,553 1,552 1,574 1,572 1,600 1, Bristol 24,821 25,328 25,328 25,163 25,032 25,129 25, Johnson City Kingsport 41,998 41,695 41,534 41,384 41,084 41,097 41, Balance of Sullivan County 84,430 83,607 84,035 84,281 84,127 84,426 84, Note: Only the portions of incorporated places within the boundaries of Sullivan County are shown under the Sullivan County section of this table. Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, June 28, Natural increase and net migration Changes in Sullivan County s general population were the result of two demographic forces: natural increase and net migration. Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths, while net migration is the difference between in- and out-movement of persons. Between 2000 and 2006, Sullivan County marked average population losses of 189 persons per year as deaths outpaced births (Table 8). This was consistent with trends observed in all surrounding counties in northeast Tennessee and portions of Virginia, with the exception of Washington (TN) and Hawkins counties. In the past 17 years, the annual number of births in Sullivan County trended downward (Table 9). In 1990, 1,804 births were recorded. By 2006, that number dropped to 1,686, having fallen as low as 1,534 in Average annual births this decade were 1,662, down from 1,744 in the 1990s. Fertility rates, the measure of total births per 1,000 females of child-bearing age (15 to 44 years), varied widely over the past several years, averaging 56.5 since At the same time that birth numbers eroded, deaths increased across Sullivan County. The 1990 total was 1,373 deaths countywide. Over the past five years, the annual average was 1,826. In 2001, deaths outnumbered births for the first time, marking a trend Table 8 NATURAL INCREASE, SULLIVAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREA Annual Average Area Sullivan County Carter County Hawkins County Johnson County Unicoi County Washington County Scott County, VA Washington County, VA Bristol city, VA only Tennessee 23,718 21,953 21,341 22,310 23,721 22,886 22,655 Note: Natural increase is the net difference between births and deaths. A positive value is the result of births outnumbering deaths. A negative value is the result of deaths outnumbering births. Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, March 22,

25 April 7, 2008 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND FACILITY CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS that has slowly escalated (Figure 5). While total deaths increased, the crude death rate (total deaths per 1,000 population) remained stable, indicative of a generally constant share of deaths with respect to total population. Offsetting population losses resulting from negative rates of natural increase, Sullivan County saw net population gains from in-migration since The six-year annual average was 319 persons, highlighted by large net increases in the past two years (Table 10 and Figure 6). Across the region, Washington County (TN) led all others with annual net migration totals of more than 1,000 persons. Carter and Hawkins counties attracted migrants at levels similar to Sullivan County. Table 9 VITAL STATISTICS, Crude Fertility Death Selected Year Births Rate Deaths Rate Population ,804 n/a 1,373 n/a n/a ,760 n/a 1,394 n/a n/a ,805 n/a 1,323 n/a n/a ,752 n/a 1,449 n/a n/a ,756 n/a 1,521 n/a n/a ,783 n/a 1,531 n/a n/a ,686 n/a 1,559 n/a n/a ,653 n/a 1,605 n/a n/a , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,667 Avg , , ,955 Notes: 1. Births are recorded by county of residence of mother (at the time of birth of the child), not by place of birth of child. 2. Fertility rate = Total births per 1,000 females aged years. 3. Crude death rate = Total deaths per 1,000 population. Source Data: Tennessee Department of Health, Mortality, Tennessee: Sullivan, 1990 to Tennessee Department of Health, Births, Tennessee: Sullivan, 1990 to Tennessee Department of Health, Tennessee Vital Statistics Summary: Resident Data. Published annually, Tennessee Department of Health, Vital Statistics, Figure 5 SULLIVAN COUNTY BIRTHS AND DEATHS, ,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 Births/Deaths 1,300 1, Year Births Deaths 25