Retail sector update July 2014

Transcription

1 Retail sector update July 0

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3 Selected recent credentials Deloitte is the world s leading fully-integrated professional services organization, providing financial advisory, consulting, tax, audit and risk advisory services in the consumer business industry. Deloitte Turkey assumed various advisory roles in recent M&A transactions in the Turkish retail sector. Through an integrated approach, Deloitte Turkey advised its clients during these transactions by providing M&A Advisory, Financial Due Diligence, Commercial Due Diligence, Tax Due Diligence, Tax Structuring and Post-Merger Integration services. Our recent deal track record in the retail sector is presented below: Financial advisor to Ayakkabı Dünyası Financial due diligence services to Levant Capital Financial advisor to C&J Clark International Limited M&A Advisory and full range of Due Diligence services to In its sale to Esas Holding In its acquisition of Panço İn its acquisition of EFA Ticaret, the exclusive distributor of Clarks products in Turkey In its acquisition of Nine West business in Turkey Strategic and commercial due diligence of ORKA Group Financial due diligence services to The Carlyle Group Commercial assessment of Park Bravo Group for Landmark Working capital diagnostics of Penti for Investcorp In its acquisition of Penti For The Carlyle Group Vendor due diligence services to Ziylan Group Vendor due diligence services to YKM Lead financial advisor to Silk & Cashmere Financial & tax due diligence services to Naspers In its sale to Eastgate Capital Group Regarding the acquisition of a private shopping website

4 Industry trends Macroeconomic Performance Even in a turbulent year due to increased socio political tension and the FED s revised monetary policy, the Turkish economy retained its momentum and achieved % growth. GDP reached US$80 billion in 03 albeit the Turkish Lira devalued 0% against the US Dollar year-on-year to December 03. Turkey s growth and its continuing long term potential have led to sustained interest from investors, also in 0, as evidenced by the BIST 00 index remaining above points as of May 0. Similarly, growth remained relatively robust in the first quarter of 0 at.3% while a decrease of 30% was achieved in the current account deficit. Industry Commentary As the Turkish economy grows, the Turkish retail sector has been one of the most appealing sectors for both investors and consumers. Per capita disposable income grew with a CAGR of c. 9% over the past years and reached US$8,89 in 03; it is expected to exceed US$3,000 in 08. Despite the significant currency volatility and tightened credit card regulations in 03, Turkish consumers remained keen on discretionary spending, which drove activity in the sector and continued to encourage a notable number of global brands to enter the market. In this context, the Consumer Confidence Index hit as of May 0. Turkey maintained its investment grade rating from leading credit rating agencies Moody s and Fitch Ratings. Macroeconomic Performance,00,000 US$ billion % A: Actual, F:Forecast Source: Turkstat, EIU 0% 9.% 8.8% % %.%.%.%.0% 3.% %.%.% % 009A 00A 0A 0A 03A 0F 0F 06F 07F 08F GDP in Current Prices Real GDP Growth (%) Personal Disposable Income Per Capita 0% -% -% -6% (%) Consumer Confidence vs. TL's Stand Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-0 Aug-0 Consumer Confidence (left) Dec-0 Note: Index values prior to Jan.3 are adjusted to Turkstat's new calculation method which was introduced in Jan.3. Source: Turkstat, CBRT Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr-3 Aug-3 Dec-3 TL Basket of US$ and EUR (right) Apr US$,000,000 0,000 8,000 6,000 6,38 CAGR (0-08): 0.% 7,8 8,03 8,88 8,89 9,03 9,93,03 0,9 3,33,000, A 00A 0A 0A 03A 0F 0F 06F 07F 08F A: Actual, F:Forecast Source: Turkstat, EIU

5 The total size of the retail sector in Turkey is estimated to have reached US$303 billion in 03 and is expected to grow with a CAGR of c. 7% between 0 and 08. Growth in the retail sector is highly influenced by shopping mall investments and the resulting increase in gross leasable area. In the past five years, the number of shopping malls and total gross leasable area both experienced rapid growth. Increased competition led investors to build larger shopping malls to create differentiation and attract a higher number of consumers. In line with the increasing number and size of shopping malls, organized retailers share of the total retail market has been steadily increasing and has reached % in 03, ending the longstanding dominance of street shops and stalls in food distributorship. Additionally, the use of credit cards continued to increase at an accelerated pace. In 03, the total value of credit / debit card transactions grew by % year-over-year while CAGR for the last five years is now c.%. Retail Sales in Turkey US$ billion (*) Slight decrease in 0 is due to a forecasted devaluation of % in average TL/ US$ y-o-y. Sector is estimated to grow by 0% in 0 on TL based sales. A: Actual, F:Forecast Source: EIU Credit / Debit Card Transactions US$ billion CAGR (0-08): 7.% A 00A 0A 0A 03A 0F 0F 06F 07F 08F 9 Food Retail CAGR (009-03):.6% 3 80* 30 Non Food Retail A 00A 0A 0A 03A Source: The Interbank Card Center 3

6 Category Commentary Food and Beverage Food and beverage, the largest segment of the total retail market (%), are expected to grow with a CAGR of % in the next five years and reach almost US$0 billion in 08. We expect to see continued expansion strategies at the discount retailers as well as a consolidation in the market. Home Retailing The home retailing market in Turkey, comprised of household furniture and textile products, reached US$ billion in 03. Sustained growth is expected in the market considering the many ongoing real estate development projects, nationwide urban transformation projects and increasing urbanization. The size of the home retailing market is forecast to reach US$60 billion in 08, corresponding to approximately 6% CAGR in the 0-08 period. Apparel and Footwear Retailing One of the most promising segments, which received a high level of investor interest in recent years, apparel and footwear retailing is expected to grow with a CAGR of 8% in the next five years and reach US$37 billion in 08. Consumer Electronics and Technological Goods Smartphone sales have become an important component of the market for consumer electronics and technological goods, which exceeded US$6 billion in 03, with % yearover-year growth. (*) Includes online payments of tax charges but excludes payment on delivery. Source: Deloitte Research, EIU, GfK, The Interbank Card Center Internet Retailing Boosted by rising internet penetration, an increasing number of Turkish companies are offering online shopping and implementing alternative payment methods. Therefore, the total volume of online spending* through virtual point of sales networks grew annually by 0% on average in the period and reached US$8 billion. On the other hand, the total size of online retail excluding online legal betting and holiday spending, reached c. US$ billion in 03 and corresponded to c..3% of the total retail sales.

7 Industry trends: Shopping mall investments in Turkey One of the key drivers in the retail sector is the number of shopping malls, which has more than quadrupled in the last decade and reached 333 by the end of 03, spread over cities throughout the country. Owing to Turkish consumers increasing purchasing power, improvements in organized retailing and sustained real estate investments by both local and foreign investors, the total amount of shopping mall investments leapt to US$ billion as of early 0 (in 009 the total was US$ billion), of which one third was realized by foreign investors. Istanbul is the center of the Turkish retail market as it is the location for the majority (60%) of shopping malls in Turkey, followed by Ankara and İzmir which together represent another 6%. Istanbul is expected to attract further shopping mall investments in the coming years and continue to dominate, while other major investments are expected to occur in the emerging cities of the Marmara, Black Sea and Mediterranean regions. Ankara and İzmir are likely to become saturated considering the current investment pipeline. Number of Shopping Malls and Leasable Area Number of Shopping Malls Gross Leasable Area Number of Shopping Malls per City Number of Shopping Malls per City Source: Turkey Real Estate Reference Book 03, Shopping Mall Investors Association million sqm In the same period, gross leasable area (GLA) has exceeded 9 million m, having risen from million m in 003. GLA per,000 people reached 0 m, but is still below the EU-8 average. However, Turkey is expected to close the gap as it has the second largest investment pipeline in Europe after Russia, corresponding to an additional c.. million m of expected leasable area by the end of 0.

8 M&A snapshot US$ billlion Global M&A Activity,000 3,799.% 3,00 3.6%,936 3,000,6,3,,00 3.0%.%,393.0% 3.6% 3.% 3.0%,073.%,000.0%.0%.0%.0%,00.%,000.0% % - 0.0% Total Deal Value Retail Deal Value Retail / Total Source: Thomson Reuters M&A Activity in Turkey M&A Activity in the Turkish Retail Sector The Turkish retail sector has been a focus for both strategic players and private equity firms in recent years and the eagerness of investors to exploit the opportunities in the market has been steadily increasing. In this respect, 03 was a highly active year for the sector as 3 transactions (including e-commerce deals) took place with an estimated deal value of US$. billion, the highest deal volume for the sector in the post-crisis period. Mainly backed by private equity and venture capital firms, internet retailing continued to increase its popularity among investors with 3 transactions out of 3 in 03. In the first five months of 0, deals were materialized, a much higher number than in the same period of % US$ billlion % %.0% 0.0% % 6.8% 3.3.0%.9% 3.% %.% 0.0% Total Deal Value Retail & E-Commerce Deal Value Retail / Total Source: Deloitte Annual Turkish M&A Review 6

9 Highlighted Transactions April, 0 Naspers, a South Africa based multimedia company acquired the remaining 30% share of Markafoni, a leading e-commerce platform focused on flash sales. Naspers initially bought 70% of Markafoni in 0 for a consideration of US$00 million. March, 0 Levant Capital, Dubai based private equity firm, acquired a majority stake in Panço Giyim, a prominent kids retailing brand that operates with more than 80 stores nationwide. December, 03 Esas Holding, a Turkish conglomerate focusing on private equity, asset management and real estate investments both in Turkey and abroad acquired Ayakkabı Dünyası, a leading player in Turkish footwear retail sector operating in cities through 39 stores. November, 03 A consortium led by the leading discount retailer BIM Birleşik Mağazalar and two of the most active local private equity firms Gözde Girişim Sermayesi and Turkven acquired 0% of Ziylan, one of the largest local footwear companies for an estimated consideration of US$ million. Ziylan operates nearly 300 stores in Turkey through its brands FLO, Polaris, Kinetix and Lumberjack. June, 03 Altınyıldız Mensucat, a leading Turkish textile and fashion retailer, bought back the shares of its affiliates Beymen (0%) and Boyner (30%), which it had sold to Citigroup s asset management platform CVCI in 007, for US$33 million. June, December 03 Bimeks, a prominent electronics retailer in Turkey acquired 00% of Electroworld, an electronics retailer operating 3 stores in Turkey and the Turkish operations of Darty, a UK based electronics retailing firm operating stores worldwide. April 03 Sabancı Holding, one of the leading Turkish conglomerates, purchased a % stake of Carrefour in CarrefourSA for a consideration of US$79 million. Following the transaction, Sabancı Holding became the % majority shareholder in CarrefourSA. 7

10 Transactions in the Turkish retail and e-commerce sectors # Acquirer Origin Target Area of Business Stake Acquired (%) Jan-May 0 CarrefourSA Turkey Genpa Marketler ( stores in Antalya) Food Retailing 00% Inventures Turkey Tazemasa.com E Commerce N/D 3 Kaplan Giyim Turkey Herry Hazır Giyim Apparel Retailing 38% Kazançlı İstanbul Marketleri (KIM) Turkey Denmar Marketleri Food Retailing 00% Levant Capital UAE Panço Giyim Apparel Retailing N/D 6 Naspers South Africa Markafoni E Commerce 9% 7 Private Investors Turkey UCZ Magazacilik Food Retailing 60% 8 Private Investors (Aydin Family) Turkey A0 Food Retailing 8% 9 Private Investors (Hasan Aslanoba, Alp Saul, Can Yücaoğlu, Evren Üçok, Gamze Yücaoğlu) Turkey Vivense.com E Commerce N/D 0 Private Investors (Muharrem Ender Karvar, Numan Turkey Lir) Nezih Kitap Specialty Retailing 00% Pupa Bilişim Turkey Elmacı Pazarı Electronics Retailing 00% Verimed A.Ş. Turkey Uyum Gıda Food Retailing 3% 03 Altınyıldız Mensucat Turkey Beymen Mağazacılık Department Store 0% Altınyıldız Mensucat Turkey Boyner Büyük Mağazacılık A.Ş. Department Store 30% 3 Aslanoba Capital Turkey Modanisa E Commerce N/D Aslanoba Capital Turkey Buldumbuldum.com E Commerce 0% Aslanoba Capital Turkey OnlineMarket.com.tr E Commerce N/D 6 Aslanoba Capital Turkey Ehil.com E Commerce 9% 7 Aslanoba Capital Turkey Hazinem.com E Commerce N/D 8 Aslanoba Capital Turkey Fit&Color E Commerce % 9 Aslanoba Capital Turkey Lilakutu.com E Commerce N/D 0 Aslanoba Capital and Private Investors (Fabrice Grinda and Jose Marin) Turkey Vivense.com E Commerce N/D Bancroft Private Equity UK Tatilsepeti.com E Commerce N/D BIM Birleşik Mağazalar; Gözde Girişim; Turkven Turkey Ziylan Group Shoe Retailing 0% 3 Bimeks Turkey Electro World Electronics Retailing 0% Bimeks Bilgi İşlem ve Dış Ticaret A.Ş. Turkey Kesa Turkey Limited (Darty) Electronics Retailing 00% Boyner Büyük Mağazacılık Turkey YKM; YKM Pazarlama Department Store 37% 6 C&J Clark International Limited UK Efa Ticaret ve Pazarlama Ltd. Şti. Shoe Retailing 00% 7 Demsa Group Turkey Emoda Hazir Giyim (Beyazkutu.com) E Commerce 00% 8 Dixons Retail UK Electro World Electronics Retailing 0% 9 Doğan Müzik Kitap Mağazacılık Pazarlama A.Ş. Turkey Elektronik Bilgi İletişim Hizmetleri Reklamcılık ve E Commerce Ticaret A.Ş. 00% 0 EBRD, Capital Partners UK Evim.net E Commerce 38% Esas Holding Turkey Ayakkabı Dünyası Shoe Retailing N/D Hubert Burda Media Germany Lidyana.com E Commerce % 3 İsmar Marketler Turkey Eko Hipermarketçilik (Reyon Market) Food Retailing 00% Kim Marketler Turkey Efeler Market; Memar Market Food Retailing 00% Landmark Group UAE Park Bravo Apparel Retailing 90% 6 Magrabi Optical Company Ltd. Saudi Arabia Şişli Optik Eyewear Retailing 00% 7 Metro Ticari Turkey Herry Hazır Giyim Apparel Retailing 3% 8 Sabancı Holding Turkey CarrefourSA Food Retailing % 9 Şok Ucuzluk Marketleri Turkey Onur Ekspres Mağazacılık Food Retailing 00% 30 Templeton Asset Management USA Şok Marketler Food Retailing 0% 3 Yıldız Holding A.Ş. Turkey Diasa Dia Sabancı Süpermarketleri Ticaret A.Ş. Food Retailing 00% Source: Deloitte Annual Turkish M&A Review, Deloitte Research 8

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