GENERATING THE MOST PREDICTIVE COLLECTIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

Transcription

1 COLLECTION SCORING

2 2 GENERATING THE MOST PREDICTIVE COLLECTIONS RISK ASSESSMENT Bureau Scoring Statistical scores using the bureau s data and are designed for new customer credit risk evaluation. Scores are the same for all users and predict the same event. Judgmental / Rules Based Scoring Models Uses internal and bureau data in a scorecard platform. Scorecard variables, weights and score ranges are subjectively determined by collections management. Output is a rank ordering of customers and does not quantify risk. Statistical Portfolio / Collection Scoring Models Internal A/R and performance data drive the model, but can combine bureau or other external data. Statistics determines scorecard variables and weights. Output is a specific probability of a future delinquency. Specifically designed for managing existing customer risk for collections and helps in calculating bad debt reserves.

3 3 WHAT SCORE METHODOLOGY IS BEST FOR MANAGING RISK? In the worst 10% of the portfolio, the statistical score captured approximately 90% more future BADS than bureau scores and 300% more than the judgmental scorecard. Greatest Risk Least Risk

4 4 STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP Applied Business Intelligence Group s collection scoring solutions help companies transition from Aging-Based Collections to Risk-Based Collections

5 5 APPLIED BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP (ABIG) - FOCUS Applied BI Group is focused on the process of synthesizing data to insight. Our ability to assist in the aggregation, assembly, interaction and analysis of your vital company information is critical to maximizing business improvement. Our years of client side experience have enabled us with the knowledge to be good consultants. Successful engagements are always a blend of what is the best approach to undertake vs. what we can actually get done. Our practice is to provide solutions that make the biggest impact to your firm now, while supporting future strategies. Breadth of experience is a critical factor in the ability to delivering new thinking. We can provide best practice solutions not only from your industry, but from industries that face similar problems. Our industry experience in the field of Business Intelligence is unequaled. Staff are expert in multiple technical disciplines as well as in business strategy. Analytical staff is comprised of Ph.D. and master level econometricians and statisticians.

6 6 ABOUT APPLIED BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Established to provide higher quality analytics and predictive scoring for B2B and B2C applications in a customer service oriented environment. Analytical staff is comprised of Ph.D. and master level econometricians and statisticians with extensive experience developing predictive decision tools. Pioneers of using internal A/R and performance data to drive statistical collection scoring models. Have proprietary software and state of the art hardware in a SAS 70 II environment designed specifically for production of sophisticated analytical applications through the web. Established in 1996, ABIG is a statistical modeling company specializing in collection scoring.

7 7 ABIG PROFESSIONAL REFERENCES

8 8 STATISTICAL SCORING STREAMLINES THE COLLECTION PROCESS Most collection departments manage and prioritize collections based on the aging of customer accounts. The customer who owes the most money and is aged out the farthest has the highest priority in the collection process. Using the traditional aging method can result in customers who owe low dollars, but are high risk to be ignored, while conversely a lot of time is spent on customers who owe higher dollars, but are not at risk. Determines customer risk and uses that risk level in conjunction with aging as the primary driver of a collection strategy for the on going management of the customer. Better resource allocation If you have only 1 collector for thousands of customers, how does a collector determine which customers they should focus on, what type of treatment should be used for a given customer, and when they should apply that treatment?

9 9 MEETING CLIENTS NEEDS 1. Increases cash flow through early identification of future delinquency 2. Reduced collection costs 3. Customized Scorecard solution not generic 4. FREE validation analysis to test the score on your portfolio 5. Built from you own monthly accounts receivable data no credit bureau data needed 6. No new software required to implement 7. Includes ABIMiner reporting tool

10 10 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE A portfolio monitoring tool helping companies assess the future risk of existing customers and the probability of delinquent payment and write-off: A statistical decision model for monthly accounts receivable portfolio management. For revolving cards, installment credit, and/or net terms, but can be adapted to handle any terms. Leverages the predictive power of internal data including details on current and past payment behavior. Designed to predict the specific probability of any GOOD customer becoming a BAD customer at some point over a 6 (six) month period, from the date of the score. Client determines the BAD definition for the model.

11 11 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE IS EASY TO IMPLEMENT No new software required to implement minimizing IT resources Scores delivered in many formats: ABIG s ABIMiner Hosted web based report & query system Flat ASCII or CSV file for uploading and integration into internal systems ERP systems SAP, Oracle, JDE, PeopleSoft Legacy AR Workflow and collection applications Excel spreadsheets

12 12 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE MODEL VALIDATION Provided for FREE to help you evaluate ScoreDynamics Collection Score using your own data and customer portfolio ABIG is provided with 18 to 24 months of historical month end A/R data (aging plus other internal data elements). This data serves as the basis for predicting future customer payment activity. ScoreDynamics Collection Score is applied to the data by uncovering past trends, magnitudes and payment patterns, and formulizing this information to predict future payment performance. Model results are validated by using actual customer payment activity, subsequent to the time of score, to evaluate the model s ability to differentiate future problem payers from future timely payers. Quantifies how accurately ScoreDynamics Collection Score predicted future customer payment behavior.

13 13 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE MEXICO VALIDATION RESULTS The ScoreDynamics Collection Score captured 90% of all future BADs through the 30th percentile Greatest Risk Least Risk 2010 Applied Business Intelligence Group LLC KS = 0.64

14 14 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE MEXICO VALIDATION RESULTS BY POPULATION PERCENTILE Average Bad Rate = 6.3% 2010 Applied Business Intelligence Group LLC

15 15 SAMPLE COLLECTION STRATEGIES BASED ON VALIDATION RESULTS Extreme Risk Credit hold, mitigate risk, and implement very aggressive collection treatments Very High Risk High Risk Credit watch, implement aggressive collection treatments Moderate Risk Low Risk Very Low Risk Implement moderate collection treatments (letters only?) Utilize limited collection treatments and target for revenue generation and auto clear

16 16 SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE AND ABIMINER ABIG s ABIMiner web-based data mining, report and query system maximizes the benefits of ScoreDynamics Collection Score The following reports are available: Analysis of Risk Groups (scored accounts only) Analysis of Risk Groups (all accounts) Analysis of Pesos at Risk (PAR) Comparative Portfolio Analysis of Pesos at Risk Aging by Risk Group Watch List

17 17 ABIMINER BENEFITS FOR SENIOR MANAGEMENT ABIMiner is a web-hosted report and query system with many features benefiting all levels of the business CFO Analyze how your business s A/R risk is changing over time Produce reports for regulators, audits and loss revenue forecasting Understand the dollars at risk impacting your bottom line and reducing losses Determine how every analyst, collector, or sales personnel s accounts are doing relative to their peers and risk level Credit and Collections Management Monitor the effectiveness of collection strategies for the entire portfolio, important segments, or individual accounts Filtering and reporting capabilities to review and analyze information by segmenting accounts Know the number of accounts within each risk group Create custom watch list based upon your query

18 18 ROI FOR SCOREDYNAMICS COLLECTION SCORE ABIG s clients have realized several key financial and operational benefits from implementing ScoreDynamics Collection Score Reduction of delinquent accounts (5% 20%) Reduction in bad debt write offs (1% 20%) Reduction of the number of full time employees needed to manage volume (10% 35%) Reduction in collection expenditures (20% 80%) Reduction in fees to collection agencies and collection outsource partners (savings dependent on your negotiated rates)

19 Hayde Navarro (52) Ramón Angulo (52) Manuel Casares (52) INTEGRA 360º Soluciones Integrales Augusto Rodin 185 Piso 8 Col. Ciudad de los Deportes Delegación Benito Juárez México, D.F., INTEGRA 360º SOLUCIONES INTEGRALES

20 George Pisacano (904) ext 201 Robert Davis (904) ext 202 Applied Business Intelligence Group rd Street South, #152 Jacksonville Beach, FL APPLIED BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP

21 THANK YOU 2010 APPLIED BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP LLC