The Re-Emergence of a Bull Market:

Transcription

1 July 2016 The Re-Emergence of a Bull Market: Finding Value in Gold Webinar

2 Important Disclosures This material does not constitute marketing material for financial products but general research. This material and the information provided herein are not directed at or intended for distribution to any person (or entity) who is a citizen or resident of (or located or established in) any jurisdiction where the distribution of these materials would be contrary to applicable law or regulation. VanEck disclaims all liability relating to this presentation and the information contained in it and for any errors or omissions, or for losses of any kind arising from trust placed in the information in any way, subject to the laws and provisions in force. This material may only be provided to you by VanEck and is for your personal use only and must not be passed on to third parties without the prior express written consent of VanEck. If you have not received this material from VanEck, you are hereby notified that you have received it from a non-authorized source that did not act on behalf of VanEck and that any review, use, dissemination, disclosure or copying of this material is strictly prohibited. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. 2016, VanEck. All rights reserved. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when making an investment. The value of the investments may go up or down and the investor may not get back the amount invested. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and the information contained in this material is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as investment, tax or legal advice, any recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any security. No references to specific securities and their issuers or sectors are intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities or gain exposure to such sectors. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates in this material are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions that are solely the opinion of Van Eck. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. Further, any information regarding valuation methods of evaluating companies and markets are intended as guidelines which may be modified or changed by Van Eck at any time in its so le discretion without notice. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. For further information see our website at 2

3 Corporate Overview History of Innovation Active, fundamental, bottomup research and security selection as primary drivers of performance Market selection and index construction to promote investability, liquidity, diversity, and transparency Investable indices based on three key factors: liquidity, pure-play exposure, and diversification Since 1955, empowering investors to build better portfolios by looking beyond conventional asset classes VanEck founded with launch of international equity mutual fund Began managing emerging markets assets Created hedge fund subsidiary; launched long-short hard assets and emerging markets distressed debt strategies Launched index company; acquired HOLDRS* Created aggregate emerging markets bond index Created the U.S. s first gold equity fund Created first long-only hard assets fund Launched first ETF based on gold mining shares Launched active UCITS and Australian platform. Launched first UCITS ETFs in Europe Acquired MLP ETFs * Holding Company Depository Receipts 3

4 Corporate Overview VanEck Highlights USD 28.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) 34 investment professionals; 231 full-time staff 19 years average portfolio manager experience in asset class Global headquarters in NY; offices in Australia, China, Germany, and Switzerland Established in 1955 Clients 400+ institutions globally sovereign, public, endowment, foundation, corporate Financial intermediaries Investment Capabilities Active (USD 7.0B) Emerging Markets Equity Emerging Markets Debt Gold Natural Resources Equity, Commodities, Energy Liquid Alternatives ETF (USD 21.9B) Commodities Country/Regional Fixed Income Natural Resources Industry Municipal Fixed Income Strategic Equity Emerging Markets Equity & Debt Gold Income Natural Resources Equity, Commodities, Energy Data as of March 31, Strategies offered in mutual, pooled and off-shore funds, separate accounts, variable insurance portfolios, sub-advisory, ETFs, and limited partnerships. 4

5 Gold Market Outlook Gold market is firming and establishing a positive trend: 2011 to 2015 bear market ends with the Fed's December rate increase Headwinds to the gold price have diminished dollar strength, rate increases, disinflation, falling commodities Financial risk driving gold again negative rates, falling real rates, weak growth, Eurozone banks and sovereigns Gold Stocks business models that work: Driven to increase Net Asset Value (NAV) Flat, decentralized management Costs under control Tremendous potential for free cash flow generation Undervalued Risks to Outlook: Above-trend economic growth Fed resumes tightening bias 5

6 The Case for Gold in 2016 Gold shares have shown signs of life in early 2016 and factors seem supportive for a bull market. Supportive Factors Technical Depth and duration of bear market comparable to the worst historically. Positive break-out from a long-term down trend. Macro Weak global economy not responding to massive stimulus from Central Banks. Rise in real interest rates since 2011 may be ending. Extending radical policies through negative interest rates creates systemic financial risks. Currency markets unsettled, USD seems to have topped out. Inflation trending higher? Mine supply has peaked. Market Action Strongest bullion ETP investment demand since Short sellers no longer have the upper hand. Gold Stock Fundamentals Cost deflation across the mining industry. Gold share valuations below long-term average. Gold betas have risen to historic norms. M&A picking up. 6

7 Price (USD/Troy oz.) Recent Gold Market Drivers Why is this time different? Fed unable to tighten as aggressively Dollar s bull market has cooled off Negative rate policies create risks Real interest rates turning over Technical breakout from a long bear market Geopolitical Risk: Turkey/Ukraine/Thailand Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Financial Risk: Federal Reserve Uncertainty, Loss of Confidence in Central Banks, Negative Rates, Global Growth Expectations Financial Risk: Greece, Swiss Peg, Eu Deflation Financial Risk: China Equity Crash Source: Bloomberg, Van Eck Research. Data as of May 31,

8 Dow/ Gold Ratio Where Are We in the Cycle? Gold suffered a cyclical bear market in 1976 and 2013 when Dow/Gold rose In 1977 the bull market resumed and Dow/Gold fell What will happen this time? Gold outperforms in the 30s, 70s, and 00s on on on Source: Bloomberg, Van Eck. Data as of May 31,

9 Lower Real Rates in the U.S. Should be Good for Gold Historically, gold has maintained (or increased) value in a world of negative real interest rates Real rates rising since 2011 Real rates turned negative again in 2016 Have real rates in the U.S. stopped rising? Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 30 April

10 Negative Rates in Bonds May Also Support Gold Central banks continue to experiment with the financial system Investors may disengage entirely Policies further distort allocation of capital Creates stress on institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies Global Negative Yielding Government Debt (in US$ terms) US$ (Trillion) Source: J.P. Morgan. Data as of February

11 U.S. Dollar and Gold Markets Reversing Course Dollar bull stalling as gold bear bottoming Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 10 June

12 Core Inflation Forming a New Trend? Central bank policies determined to generate inflation U.S. labor market near full employment Commodities bottoming Will central banks lose control? U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Less Food and Energy (YoY Change) Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 May

13 Gold Production Beginning Steady Decline Gold mine supply has peaked Supply issues may become driver in the future Global Gold Doré Supply Forecast, tonnes Source: Metals Focus Doré Flows Service. Data as of February 29,

14 Gold Holdings in GLD (Thousands) Gold Inflows to ETPs Sustaining Prices Market Changes in 2016: Strong Western demand in Bullion ETPs and futures Weak demand from China and India Strong investment demand more impactful than weak jewelry demand Gold Holdings in GLD* since inception Gold in GLD fell to pre-crisis levels *SPDR Gold Shares ETF. Source: Bloomberg. Data as of May 27,

15 Shift in Speculative Positioning Supporting Price Levels Short spec positions increased through the bear market Net spec longs have increased to two-year highs Beginning a new positive trend? Net Speculative Long Positions on COMEX Longs Dominate Shorts Rule New Trend? Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 7 June

16 Gold Stocks Mid to Large Caps All-In Sustaining Costs Coming Down Deflation in equipment, materials, and labor costs Weak local currencies Low fuel costs Cost cycle likely to bottom in 2016 All-In Sustaining Cost Per Ounce E Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates. Data as of March

17 AISC (USD/oz.) 75th Gold Bear Market End Leads to Profitability Few mines are unprofitable at current prices 2,000 Cumulative Production by Mine (koz) 1,500 HSBC 2016 gold price forecast of USD1,205/oz 1, Source: HSBC. Data as of January

18 ene.-06 jul.-06 ene.-07 jul.-07 ene.-08 jul.-08 ene.-09 jul.-09 ene.-10 jul.-10 ene.-11 jul.-11 ene.-12 jul.-12 ene.-13 jul.-13 ene.-14 jul.-14 ene.-15 jul.-15 ene.-16 Fwd P/CF (x) Valuations Currently at Attractive Levels Valuations below long term averages Gold stocks historically have traded at premium valuation multiples due to their optionality to gold through earnings and resource leverage, scarcity of trading volume (relatively small sector), and potential for discovery 35x Historic P/CF of Majors and Mid-Tiers x 25x 20x 15x Mid-Tiers Average : Mid-Tiers Average x 5x 0x Majors: Majors Average 7.7 Tier I average consensus P/CF Tier II average consensus P/CF Source: RBC Capital Markets. Data as of March

19 US$ (Billion) Companies Are Now Able to Generate Significant Free Cash Flow Companies have impressive free cash flow leverage to gold prices Free Cash Flow at $1,200 to $1, Estimates $6 Majors Mid-Tiers $5 $4 +38 % $3 +61 $2 $1 $ % +68 % $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 Source: VanEck Research. Data as of March

20 Beta to Gold Betas Demonstrate Leverage of Gold Equities Betas to gold have risen for gold equities Better managements and overall improvements across industry should attract investors Companies should be able to maintain betas as profit margins expand with increasing gold prices 12 Month Trailing Beta to Gold 2.5 2,000 1, , ,400 1,200 1,000 Gold Price (in USD) ene.-07 ene.-08 ene.-09 ene.-10 ene.-11 ene.-12 ene.-13 ene.-14 ene.-15 ene GDX GDXJ Gold Source: VanEck Research. Data as of March

21 Majors Have Transformed Their Business Newmont Mining Corp. Upgrading Its Mine Portfolio Divested Reinvested Improving Mine Quality, Balance Sheet, Profits Assets Midas, Jundee, Penmont, Waihi Merian, Long Canyon, CC&V All-in Mining Costs USD 1,177/oz. USD 848/oz. Mine life Less than 6 years More than 10 years Production 500Koz/year ~1Moz/year Costs USD 900-$950/oz Below USD 800/oz Mine life up 66% AISC down 19% Net Debt USD 4.74B USD 3.46B Gold Production 5.0M oz. 5.0M oz. Avg. Stock Price USD USD Risk Higher technical and social risk Lower technical and social risk Avg. Gold Price USD 1,669 USD 1,160 Source: Company Reports. Data as of February

22 Mid-Tier Gold Stocks B2Gold: Building Growth in a Weak Market Van Eck coverage universe: Mid-Tier average production growth of 45% to 2020 B2Gold buying undervalued companies in bear market: CGA, Volta, Papillon Reserves up 75% since 2011 and production set to double through 2020; Building mines that will participate in next cycle Exploration success likely to extend mine lives CGA Mining Volta Papillon Source: Bloomberg, Van Eck Research. Data as of 16 June

23 Share Price (USD) Junior Gold Stocks Premier Gold Advancing gold projects in a weak market Preliminary economic assessment (PEA) shows robust returns U.S. and Canada mining friendly jurisdictions Production targeted to commence in Hardrock Project Resource 3.6 million ounces Acquisition of Cove Project, Nevada Consolidates 100% ownership of Hardrock Hardrock PEA: 15 year mine life 202,000 ounces/year Joint venture with Centerra to develop Hardrock Acquires South Arturo Project JV with Barrick 0 Dez-10 Jun-11 Dez-11 Jun-12 Dez-12 Jun-13 Dez-13 Jun-14 Dez-14 Jun-15 Dez-15 Source: Bloomberg. Gold Press Releases. Data as of 16 June

24 # of Transactions Gold Stock Mergers and Acquisitions M&A activity increased in 2015 We expect companies will likely look to add resources once valuations improve Global Gold Sector M&A Activity Number of Transactions Acquisitions Gold $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Price (USD/Troy oz.) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research; Van Eck. Data as of December