Resource Plan

Transcription

1 Resource Plan Draft Version v0.4

2 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 3 General Background... 3 Resource Plan Background... 3 Planning Horizon... 4 CHAPTER 1 Policy Goals and Objectives... 6 CHAPTER 2 Legal and Regulatory Requirements... 8 Resource Adequacy... 9 Renewable Portfolio Standard Power Source Disclosure Green House Gas Reporting Storage CHAPTER 3 Load Forecasting Forecasting Future Energy Profiles CHAPTER 4 Inventory of Resources Already Procured Local Renewables Wholesale Local Renewables Retail Out of County Renewables Wholesale Other Renewable Energy Carbon Free Electric Energy Conventional Energy Five Year Summary of Resources under Contract Description and Timeline of All Energy Supply Resources under Contract CHAPTER 5 Potential future Resources Near Term Demand Side Resource Planning Medium and Long Term Demand and Supply Side Resource Planning CHAPTER 6 Optimal Resource planning

3 Renewable Energy Fossil and Carbon Free Energy and Scheduling Programmatic Resources Leveraging Other Resources CHAPTER 7 Evaluation Metrics APPENDIX 1 Financial Policy B APPENDIX 2 Abbreviations and Definitions APPENDIX 3 Resource Plan Data Tables

4 INTRODUCTION General Background Sonoma Clean Power (SCP) serves electric customers in the municipalities of Cotati, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, Sonoma, Windsor and unincorporated Sonoma County and has planned future service to Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park in mid SCP both partners with, and competes against, the incumbent investor owned utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). The partnership arises from SCP s use of PG&E s infrastructure to deliver and meter SCP electricity and the competition arises from the ability of customers in SCP s territory to choose electric generation service from either PG&E or SCP. On May 1, 2014, SCP began service to the majority of SCP s eligible commercial customers and approximately six thousand residential customers. In this Resource Plan, the first group of customers who took service at program launch are referred to as Phase 1. In December 2014, service to all remaining customers in the communities presently participating in SCP ( Phase 2 ) began, and by January 1, 2015 SCP will be the default energy supplier for approximately 161,000 Sonoma County residential and commercial customers. Customers in Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park will begin receiving service from SCP in mid 2015, and will be referred to as Phase 3 in this Resource Plan. The City of Healdsburg operates a municipal electrical utility and is ineligible for SCP service. As of January 1 st, 2015, approximately 87% of eligible Phase 1 customers are receiving SCP electric energy, with the other 13% opting to stay with PG&E. Among Phase 2 customers, approximately 94% are receiving service, though SCP expects this number to gradually decrease over the first few months of Therefore, SCP forecasts the percentage of all customers (including those in existing Phases 1 and 2 and the upcoming Phase 3) remaining with SCP to stabilize around 85%. By contrast, before program launch, SCP projected a retention rate of approximately 80%. SCP assumes that the high customer retention rate is directly attributable to SCP s cleaner energy supply portfolio and prices that are competitive with PG&E s. Resource Plan Background This SCP Resource Plan (Plan) provides guidance for serving the electric energy supply and program activity for SCP customers while meeting SCP s policy objectives. The Plan presently covers the approximately five year period from launch on May 1, 2014 through and including the calendar year 2018, though this planning period may be reevaluated in future Plan versions. 3

5 A number of elements flow into the Plan, and these are organized as chapters. To make this Plan as accessible as possible, definitions of terms and abbreviations are included in Appendix 2. The primary elements of the Resource Plan are: Chapter 1 Policy Goals and Objectives; Chapter 2 Legal and Regulatory Requirements; Chapter 3 Load Forecasting; Chapter 4 Inventory of Resources Already Procured; Chapter 5 Potential Future Resources; Chapter 6 Optimal Resource Planning; and Chapter 7 Evaluation metrics. This Plan is a living document intended to provide strategic guidance, support transparency and encourage community engagement in SCP s development and activities, while remaining flexible enough to adapt and evolve over time. This Plan is the central and most visible component of an ongoing public planning process to discuss and communicate SCP s procurement and program activities to our community. To serve this purpose, the Plan will be kept current through regular updates at least once per year. Planning Horizon Planning and procurement in the energy industry generally involve three time scales: short term, which involves activities up to a year in the future; medium term, which involves activities up to five years; and long term, which involves activities five years and longer. SCP will use medium term planning for its first few years while building toward a long term plan. The five year term is on a number of criteria that distinguish SCP's first five years of existence from the years that follow. After the first five years, SCP can apply for an agency credit rating. With a strong credit rating, credit and collateral costs should be reduced. In five years, the possibility of being debt free also exists. Finally, through 2016, SCP is, as described in Chapter 4 and with the exception of incremental true up procurement, significantly procured for existing customers, leaving 2017 and 2018 with considerable open procurement positions (projected future electric demand that has not yet been met with electric power purchases). Procurement for these open positions, particularly with respect to renewable energy and other programmatic resources, will need to begin soon, making a five year planning horizon quite suitable. The table below shows, at a very high level, forecast of 4

6 energy sales to customers in all communities participating in SCP (including the recently joined communities of Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park in mid 2015), total energy supplies under contract, and the corresponding percent closed position. More detail on Supply Under Contract is provided in Chapter 4. At a minimum, annual adjustments to load forecasts and the associated net open position will be needed during the five year planning horizon. Table 1. Sonoma Clean Power Annual Projected Sales and Supply under Contract (MWh) Year Forecast Retail Sales 581,000 1,938,000 2,209,000 2,215,000 2,221,000 Supply Under Contract 539,000 1,831,000 1,614, , ,000 Supply as a Percent of Sales 92.7% 94.5% 73.1% 24.8% 28.8% 5

7 CHAPTER 1 POLICY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES SCP is guided and governed by a Joint Powers Agreement (JPA) that establishes SCP's basic policy framework. The JPA goals are stated as: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions related to the use of power in Sonoma County and neighboring regions; Providing electric power and other forms of energy to customers at a competitive cost; Carrying out programs to reduce energy consumption; Stimulating and sustaining the local economy by developing local jobs in renewable energy; Promoting long term electric rate stability and energy security and reliability for residents through local control of electric generation resources. 1 The JPA also states the intent "to promote the development and use of a wide range of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency programs, including but not limited to solar, wind, and biomass energy production," noting that the "purchase of [non local] renewable power and use of [unbundled] renewable energy credits is intended only as a transitional method to decrease regional greenhouse gas emissions; local renewable projects are the preferred method." As described in Chapter 2, SCP has already implemented overarching policies to address the use of "unbundled renewable energy credits", i.e. Category 3 RECs, through limiting Category 3 REC use to only that allowed under the California s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements. Consolidated goals derived from the JPA are: Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions; Support competitive pricing; Promote local economic benefits; None of these laudable goals exist in a vacuum and in many ways these goals and objectives are dynamically balanced against each other. For example, local small scale renewable energy that will result in reduced greenhouse gas emissions and increase local resources is likely to cost more than larger remote renewable energy and, at least currently, is more expensive than large remote fossilfueled energy. 1 Second Amended and Restated Joint Powers Agreement Relating to and Creating the Sonoma Clean Power Authority, By and Among The County of Sonoma and The Sonoma County Water Agency, approved and effective July 25,

8 Particularly in the early stages of SCP's development, building an operating reserve fund and supporting financial strength is critical. Electric energy procurement and program implementation, even on relatively small scales, are generally costly, long term activities. SCP was launched with 100% debt financing and, even though SCP's financial projections indicate robust future financial health, it has only repaid a small portion of the debt principal. Furthermore, the timing and other requirements to establish a credit rating and reach an asset positive balance sheet are considerable and likely out of reach over the next few years or more. Thus, a set of Plan Principles (Table 2) will guide the selection and design of each energy procurement and program activity. These are comprised of the three consolidated goals plus an added principle reflecting credit profile impacts: Table 2. Sonoma Clean Power Plan Principles Plan Principle #1 Plan Principle #2 Plan Principle #3 Plan Principle #4 Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Support competitive retail rates. Promote local economic benefits. Have minimal negative or better impact on SCP's credit profile. Until SCP achieves a stable state with sufficient financial reserves, a strong credit rating, and easy access to credit, Plan Principle #4 should remain independent of the more general cost factors that impact rate competitiveness. This is because in the near term, credit profile impacts of particular activities may preclude alternative or subsequent actions. However, once SCP has passed the launch phase and has a stronger financial position, it will become possible to evaluate both the procurement cost and the credit profile impacts of alternative options by the same metric, total project cost. 7

9 CHAPTER 2 LEGAL AND REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS Virtually all of the provision of electric energy to end use customers in the United States is regulated to some degree. SCP provides electric energy to customers under the authority of California state law. This body of law is generally referred to as Community Choice Aggregation (CCA), referring to the legal structure enabled by that law. CCAs, such as SCP, enable local government jurisdictions, such as counties and cities, to aggregate the electric load of their citizens and businesses, utilizing the incumbent investor owned utility s infrastructure to deliver and meter the electricity. Under the CCA enabling law, SCP is required to meet many of the same legal and regulatory requirements imposed on PG&E, and a few that are distinctly applied only to CCAs. This legal and regulatory regime is intended to provide a level playing field between the CCA and incumbent investor owned utility, thereby promoting fair competition and customer choice. Compliance to CCA law and regulations is essential because this provides SCP with the authority to serve customers. The core legal and regulatory elements underlying SCP electric procurement are summarized in Table 3 and detailed below. Table 3. SCP Regulatory Requirements Reporting Category Requirement Regulating Entity 2 Resource Adequacy Demonstrate compliance with the CPUC mandate to procure capacity products (known as Resource Adequacy and measured in MW) to meet 115% of forecast peak electric load. CPUC Renewable Portfolio Standard Demonstrate that SCP has procured qualified renewable energy (as defined by the California Energy Commission) to meet specified percentages of total retail electric sales. CPUC Power Source Disclosure Disclose annual breakdown of energy procured to meet retail sales by energy source category. CEC 2 CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission; CEC: California Energy Commission. 8

10 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Voluntary. All reporting of emissions is done by individual generation sources, under the rules set by the California Air Resources Board; SCP is not required to report the emissions of our energy suppliers but does coordinate with PG&E to report portfolio wide GHG emission rates for direct comparison. None. Storage Demonstrate compliance with a targeted storage capacity equal to 1% of SCP customer load by Additionally, submit advice letters filings beginning in 2016 on progress towards compliance CPUC Resource Adequacy The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) requires SCP and all other load serving entities (or LSEs essentially organizations that provide electric energy to retail customers), to demonstrate that they have procured in advance sufficient electric energy capacity (the demonstrated ability to supply electric energy on demand) such that the California power system in aggregate is positioned to reliably meet system coincident peak load 3. The assurance that electric loads in California have sufficient electric energy to serve them is essential in maintaining a safe and reliable electric system. Failure to procure sufficient electric capacity can result in black outs, equipment damage, and unsafe electrical infrastructure. On both an annual year ahead and month ahead basis, SCP must file reports demonstrating that it has procured sufficient electric capacity from resources qualified by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) including a reserve of an additional 15% above total forecasted peak electric load. This electric capacity is known as Resource Adequacy (RA) and is measured in megawatts or MWs. It is a distinct product from energy, which is measured in megawatt hours or MWhs. While many power plants can both generate energy and provide RA, these can be bought and sold separately. Beginning in 2015, a new element has been added to the RA requirements called Flexible Capacity designed to ensure that a designated portion of an LSE s contracted capacity is from resources that can quickly decrease and increase generation output. This type of flexibility is needed 3 SCP s projected capacity needs are shown, along with other key metrics related to procurement and resource planning, in Appendix 3. 9

11 to respond to increasing amounts of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, which produce variable electric output due to natural fluctuations in weather conditions. The CPUC evaluates SCP s RA report submissions to ensure accuracy and completeness. If SCP fails to properly comply with the CPUC s RA requirements, SCP could not only be subject to fines and other penalties, but could be exposing California s electric system to undue safety and reliability risks. For these reasons, RA compliance is an important factor in SCP procurement. Renewable Portfolio Standard California Senate Bill 2 (1X) (Simitian, 2011) mandated renewable energy procurement requirements for LSEs within multi year compliance periods in specific categories. These requirements, shown in Table 4, are referred to as the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). The CPUC oversees SCP s compliance with the RPS and has set the following minimum percent of qualifying renewable energy for all California LSEs: Table 4. RPS Requirements, as a Percent of an LSE's Annual Retail Sales 4 Year Percent % % % % % % % The California Energy Commission (CEC) oversees what types of electric energy qualify as renewable. Generally, bio energy (biomass and biogas), geothermal, solar, wind and small hydroelectric are the most prominent sources of renewable energy. Throughout California and the Western United States, solar and wind are expected to dominate over time. In addition to setting annual minimum RPS percentages and designating sources as RPS eligible, the RPS rules further delineate qualified renewable energy into three categories and places minimum and 4 More information on SCP s RPS procurement requirements and program targets are shown in Appendix 3, Table

12 maximum allowable percentages on these categories. Category 1 consists of renewable energy produced and sold in California, and is the most preferred type Category 2 consists of renewable energy imported into California from another state and is supported by non renewable energy to make up for the variability of wind or similar resources. Category 3 consists of "unbundled" Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) that consist of the renewable attributes of renewable energy stripped off of the underlying electricity. In other words, the "green" part of the Category 3 REC is acquired, but the underlying remaining electricity is sold as nonrenewable energy to a separate third party. This underlying energy is sometimes referred to as "Null Power" because it no longer possesses the stripped off green and renewable attributes. Category 3 RECs can come from anywhere in the Western United States. For 2014 through 2016, the RPS rules require that 65% of qualified renewable energy purchased to meet an LSE s obligation come from Category 1 energy, no more than 15% come from Category 3 RECs and the remainder between 20% and 35% can come from either Category 1 or Category 2 energy. For 2017 forward, the rules mandate that 75% of an LSE s RPS obligation must come from Category 1 energy and no more than 10% may come from Category 3 RECs. The remainder between 15% and 25% can come from either Category 1 or Category 2 sources. 11

13 Figure 1. RPS Portfolio Content Category Requirements 5 The RPS Category requirements reflect an increasing California preference for Category 1 renewable energy produced and sold in California, a diminishing appetite for Category 3 RECs, and an in between level of desirability for Category 2 renewable energy. The Category 1 preference promotes in state construction of renewable sources. The diminishing RPS allowance for Category 3 RECs in RPS compliance filings discourages the use of these products over time. This is likely because there is no coordination between states to ensure consistency in emissions reporting, and emissions reductions are a significant motivation for RPS rules. Pricing reflects the RPS category preference with Category 1 renewable energy current about 10 times as expensive as Category 3 RECs. SCP must comply with all RPS requirements. When SCP voluntarily exceeds RPS requirements in any fashion, the manner in which SCP decides to proceed is essentially unregulated. Many voluntary (above RPS minimum) programs exist that use Category 3 RECs, such as in Palo Alto, SMUD and Marin 5 Retrieved 12/31/14 from 12

14 Clean Energy. PG&E, however, has been prohibited by the CPUC from implementing a voluntary program using Category 3 RECs. Because SCP competes directly with PG&E, SCP elects to forego the use of Category 3 RECs for voluntary RPS energy procurement. This decision helps SCP to directly compare our service options with those of PG&E, and was widely supported by the public in our service territory. If at some point in the future emissions reporting for the null power backing up Category 3 RECs is coordinated and verifiable, SCP may reconsider how it uses this product. Power Source Disclosure The CEC oversees the disclosure and reporting by LSEs of the renewable and non renewable content of the electric energy they deliver to their customers. Currently, the RPS energy is divided into bioenergy, geothermal, small hydroelectric, solar and wind. The non renewable energy includes coal, large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and "other." A third category, known as "unspecified sources of power," is electric energy that is not traceable to specific generation sources. This type of energy is also referred to as "system power," and is treated as natural gas for GHG reporting purposes. SCP is required to file an annual report to the CEC regarding the types of electric energy delivered to SCP customers, and provide all SCP customers with an annual report of summarized energy content data called the Power Content Label. The below graphic provides a sample illustration of the Power Content Label. 13

15 Figure 2. CEC Power Content Label Template 6 Green House Gas Reporting California's landmark law passed in 2006, AB 32 the California Global Warming Solutions Act, requires California to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, which is approximately 15% below a "business as usual" scenario. Under AB 32, along with other programs, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) adopted Mandatory Reporting Regulations (MRR) for electric power plant and other stationary source GHG emitters and a companion GHG Cap and Trade program. Both of these regulations were adopted in California has demonstrated national and international leadership by being among the early adopters of strict GHG stationary source reduction efforts. A key element of these ARB GHG reporting parameters is the inability to use Category 3 RECs to offset GHG emissions. This prohibition is in place because, as described in the RPS section, Category 3 RECs contain only the renewable attributes, but not the underlying energy. If a Category 3 REC is used to offset GHG emissions, those emissions must be claimed elsewhere. In other words, the underlying Null Power needs to report those offset GHG emissions. For Category 3 RECs produced and sold inside California, the GHG value would be verifiable because the underlying null power must be sold as system power with reported emissions equal to natural 6 Retrieved on 12/31/14 from 14

16 gas power. But there are essentially no producers of Category 3 RECs in California for the simple reason that it is far more valuable to sell renewable energy as Category 1. Since all or nearly all Category 3 RECs are produced outside California, the issue of how null power is handled is problematic. Based on SCP s research, it appears to be common practice for null power in other states to be sold as zero emission and non renewable. This means that SCP has determined that it should not claim to have lower emission energy when purchasing an out of state Category 3 REC because to do so would mean that the emissions from the local system power source are not reported by any retail provider in any state. SCP's wholesale sources of electric energy must individually report GHG emissions under MRR, but SCP has no direct, individual MRR emission reporting obligation and SCP is likewise not directly covered by Cap and Trade. For this reason, SCP's reporting of GHG emissions is largely unregulated. Nevertheless, SCP has decided to voluntarily forgo the use of Category 3 RECs for the purpose of GHG benefits. This means that if any Category 3 RECs are used by SCP, they will be limited to the amount allowed under the RPS (about 3%) and GHG impacts will be calculated on the basis of the source of delivered energy alone (e.g., typically natural gas). Storage Large scale energy storage facilities, such as grid scale batteries, pumped hydro, and other technologies, will allow SCP to store energy produced at times when energy supply exceeds demand, and later discharge this energy to meet demand and displace other supply resources during peak periods. The CPUC has adopted a storage procurement target for SCP and other CCAs of 1% of SCP s peak customer load by Storage is currently expensive compared with other resources that have similar operating characteristics, and as a technology category is still in the early stages of large scale commercialization. Nevertheless, storage is predicted to be a key element accommodating high levels of intermittent and variable energy sources, such as wind and solar. By storing excess renewable energy when renewable generators are producing more electricity than customers are using and later providing electricity when renewable generators are not producing, storage is likely an important element of SCP s future portfolio. Storage to back up solar power is the most straightforward example of storage potential. Excess solar energy can be produced and stored to use at night, when the sun is not available. Storage also holds the potential to provide Flexible Capacity, thereby reducing or even eliminating the need to use fossil fueled power plants to support variable renewable generation. In addition to having a storage target mandate, SCP will consider storage technologies in regular procurement activities, to the extent that exceeding the target or achieving the target early supports SCP s operations and aligns with Plan Principles. 15

17 CHAPTER 3 LOAD FORECASTING The delivery of electric energy depends on generating the correct amount of electricity, or supply, to match customer electric consumption (also referred to as load or as demand). This process is referred to as "load balancing." Because most customers are able to use as much or as little electricity as they desire, some amount of imbalance always exists. Nevertheless, load balancing within a margin of acceptable error is a critical function in maintaining a safe and reliable grid, as well as minimizing financial exposure to costs related to imbalances. The responsibility for physical load balancing (matching the real time output of power plants with the constantly changing demand levels, both system wide and locally) is performed by the CAISO. However, SCP, like all other California load serving entities, settles all of our imbalances at spot wholesale power prices and so has strong financial incentives to accurately match our supply portfolio with our projected demand, on both a long term aggregated basis, and an hourly (or intra day) basis. Energy imbalance can be a cost or a credit, depending on real time power market conditions, but because of the volatility of real time markets, prudent power system operations (and the need to support stable customer rates) involve activities to cost effectively mitigate these risks. This is why SCP seeks to have immediate and near term forecast energy needs under contract, and mitigate some long term imbalance risk through long term (10 and 20 year) contracts. Load forecasting is therefore critical to support SCP s procurement activities. The financial exposure to real time markets, along with other considerations such as RA requirements drive the need to forecast future loads with as much certainty as possible. In turn, reliable load forecasting enables resource procurement that seeks to minimize imbalances and provides predictable costs that in turn support stable and competitive pricing. SCP load forecasting uncertainty is most affected by the following factors: 1. The number of customers taking service from SCP, including population changes in Sonoma County and customers switching their electric service between SCP and PG&E; 7 2. Under or over performance of SCP programming (such as NetGreen net metering, energy efficiency or others that affect net demand; 3. Load changes from external factors such as economic business cycles; and, 4. Weather patterns, which can unexpectedly impact customer electric consumption. An example would be a late season heat wave that causes greater cooling load than normal. 7 Current estimates of customer counts are available in Appendix 3, Table 8. 16

18 As SCP grows, customer participation in SCP s energy service options and programs will become more stable and predictable. External economic factors will always be a source of uncertainty for SCP as they are for all LSEs. Finally, weather patterns, can be mitigated to some degree with analysis, but the cost of such a service should be weighed against the benefits. SCP currently forecasts aggregate energy demand for all currently participating (Phases 1 and 2) customers to be approximately 1,800,000 MWh in 2015, growing by approximately 0.2% annually. With the addition of service to the Phase 3 communities of Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park expected to occur in mid 2015, SCP s current forecast of total retail sales is approximately 1,938,000 MWh in 2015 and 2,209,000 in Table 5below (also shown above in this Plan Introductory chapter), shows annual forecast load along with SCP s presently contracted energy supplies (it is important to note that sales that are not met by supply under contract are settled in the spot wholesale power market; any risk assumed by an open position is a financial risk, not an electric reliability risk). More detail on the Supply under Contract is provided in the next chapter. 8 Table 5. Sonoma Clean Power Annual Projected Sales and Supply under Contract (MWh) Year Forecast Retail Sales 581,000 1,938,000 2,209,000 2,215,000 2,221,000 Supply under Contract 539,000 1,831,000 1,614, , ,000 Supply as a Percent of Sales 92.7% 94.5% 73.1% 24.8% 28.8% Forecasting Future Energy Profiles In addition to forecasting aggregate future energy needs, SCP also seeks to forecast energy demand profiles of our customers, in order to ensure energy supply matches energy demand on every relevant time scale (annually, seasonally, daily and hourly). This objective is important to ensure the proper balance between energy supply scheduled to meet so called baseload demand (the minimum forecast load level needed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week), as well as peak demand (the maximum instantaneous demand over any given time interval). The figures below show two representative daily load shapes and SCP s procured (closed) supply positions for, respectively, a summer weekday and a winter weekday for SCP s total customer base (including those communities that will begin taking 8 More data on SCP s annual demand forecasts, as well as a high level breakdown of supply categories, are available in Appendix 3, Table 7. 17

19 service in mid 2015). Figure 3. Representative 2015 Summer Weekday, Supply and Load Figure 4. Representative 2015 Winter Weekday, Supply and Load SCP uses load forecasts at all time scales as we seek to minimize overall procurement costs while also mitigating risks of adverse costs from real time imbalances. Based on present forecasts, SCP will 18

20 work over the next several months to negotiate additional supply (or demand side load reductions if available) to match supply and demand for the second half of 2015 and for CHAPTER 4 INVENTORY OF RESOURCES ALREADY PROCURED After only a few months of operation, SCP has succeeded in executing a number of valuable contracts for a balanced mix of resources that match our projected load profiles. A review of these resources, including a discussion of how they perform against the Plan Principles, follows. PLEASE NOTE SCP MUST KEEP PRICE TERMS CONFIDENTIAL ON OUR ENERGY TRANSACTIONS. PRICE CONFIDENTIALITY IS NECESSARY FOR SCP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG MARKET POSITION WITH RESPECT TO COMPETITORS AND POTENTIAL COUNTERPARTIES, BUT IS ALSO A COMMON REQUIREMENT OF SCP'S SUPPLIERS. ACCORDINGLY, PRICING WILL BE REFERRED TO IN GENERAL, RELATIVE TERMS, BUT ACTUAL PRICES ARE NOT PROVIDED. In order to facilitate the successful launch of SCP as a competitive power supplier for Sonoma County, SCP entered into several separate contracts with two primary suppliers, Constellation Energy Group (a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation) and Calpine Corporation. The contract with Calpine is described below, under Geysers Renewable Geothermal Energy. Additionally, in 2013 and 2014, a total of four contracts were signed with Constellation to provide the majority of SCP s energy needs, while meeting our goals of at least 33% renewables and 70% total carbon free in our first year of operations. The contracts with Constellation, entitled Phase 1, Phase 1A (a true up procurement for Phase 1 customer load), Phase 2 (2014/2015) and Phase 2 (2016) were bundled power purchase contracts intended to fill SCP s initial energy and capacity needs. Together with the contracts described in detail in this chapter, SCP is significantly contracted through 2016, with generally increasing open positions in later years, which will be filled gradually according to the principles laid out in this Resource Plan. Local Renewables Wholesale Geysers Renewable Geothermal Energy SCP is under contract with Calpine Corporation to receive Category 1, local, renewable energy from The Geysers geothermal facilities in Sonoma and Lake Counties. The initial quantity, already under delivery in 2014, is 10 MW running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week increasing to 50 MW in 2018 and continuing at 50 MW through On average, this is enough annual energy to power over 68,000 homes with local, 100% renewable energy. Geothermal is generally more expensive than other renewable energy such as wind or solar, because the technology requires considerably more complicated equipment with higher operation and maintenance costs. Consistent with these factors, the Calpine contract is one of SCP's most expensive 19

21 contracts to date. The resource is, however, in SCP's service territory, and, relative to other SCP contracts, the Calpine contract has a minimal collateral requirement. Weighing these attributes against the Plan Principles, the Calpine Contract: Supports a reduction in GHG emissions, as geothermal is a relatively low carbon emitting resource. Supports competitive retail rates for the life of the contracts. Provides local economic development by procuring energy from a local resource employing a local workforce. Has a low collateral requirements, minimizing the impact to SCP s credit profile. ProFIT (Feed In Tariff) Program In August of 2014, SCP launched a Feed In Tariff program known at ProFIT. ProFIT allows local renewable projects under 1 MW to sell energy to SCP under a standard 10 or 20 year contract at pricing set to encourage in county renewable development. 9 Because local, small scale (or distributed) generation is nearly always more expensive to build than remote, utility scale generation, premium pricing has been offered (from $95/MWh to $125/MWh depending on project design). ProFIT contracts will be offered to eligible projects until $600,000 per year of pricing premium is reached. Full evaluation of energy procurement under ProFIT will remain incomplete until projects successfully deliver renewable energy to SCP. Nevertheless, utilizing reasonable assumptions, the program can be evaluated under the Plan Principles. ProFIT: Supports GHG emissions reductions by supporting qualified local renewable resources. As the ProFIT program deliberately contains premium pricing for local renewables, at a large enough scale, it would put upward pressure on rates through its impact on bundled procurement costs. Provides local economic development by procuring energy from local resources employing a local workforce. Has no collateral requirements. 9 More information on ProFIT is available at 20

22 Local Renewables Retail NetGreen (Net Energy Metering) Program The SCP NetGreen program allows customers to offset their electric energy requirements utilizing small renewable technologies such as solar photovoltaic panels. The NetGreen program allows customers to spin their meters both forward and backwards, essentially resulting in SCP electric service acting as a form of storage for the NetGreen customer. For example, if a customer is not home during the day, solar panels installed on a customer s roof may generate electricity in excess of what is needed to serve on site energy demand. During these times, that electricity is delivered to other neighboring SCP customers and the NetGreen customer receives a credit for the energy. At different times, such as at night when the sun does not shine, the NetGreen customer will receive electricity from SCP. The SCP power delivered is offset by the credit received during times of over generation. By making small scale, decentralized systems more cost effective, NetGreen directly supports customer installations designed to serve some or all of a customer's electric needs. The annual price premium to support NetGreen is forecasted to be between approximately $200,000 and $300,000 per year, though with significantly greater NetGreen penetration, the impact could be greater. A prudent assessment of NEM resource potential and financial impacts will be necessary if subscription levels exceed expectations. Weighed against the Plan Principles, NetGreen: Supports GHG emissions reductions by supporting qualified renewable distributed resources. Because NetGreen compensates customers for their excess energy at retail rates plus a small bonus, at a large enough scale it would put upward pressure on rates through its impact on bundled procurement costs. May provide local benefits by encouraging economic activity among local solar installers. Has no collateral requirements; Out of County Renewables Wholesale Mustang Renewable Solar Energy In June 2014, SCP executed a contract with Recurrent Energy for 30 MW of Category 1 solar energy to be built near Lemoore, California, for delivery by the end of Additionally, in October 2014, SCP executed an additional contract with Recurrent for another 40 MW from the same project. The 21

23 70 MW procurement is part of a larger 100 MW project, but SCP's first purchase in June 2014 was the first tranche and enabled the Mustang project to move forward. Because solar energy is only produced while the sun is shining, less yearly energy is produced compared to a similarly sized base load plant, such as the Calpine Geysers plant. The two solar contracts combined are expected to provide enough annual energy for over 32,000 homes at competitive terms. The Mustang pricing and collateral requirements are also favorable. Additional attributes of Mustang include construction on impacted farmland, a labor agreement with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), very minimal environmental impacts, and no third party opposition. Weighing these attributes against the Plan Principles, the Mustang contract: Supports GHG emissions reductions by supporting qualified a new renewable solar resource. The supply costs compare favorably against projected procurement costs for renewable energy used in projections at program launch, and are very competitive in the marketplace for comparable supply. Does not promote local economic benefits. Has no collateral requirements; while the contracts called for posting of collateral, the contract terms stipulated return of this collateral upon SCP reaching certain financial milestones, which were achieved even before the collateral posting for Mustang 4 would have been due. Other Renewable Energy Through contracts with Constellation, SCP has secured enough other RPS qualified energy to meet SCP s outstanding RPS requirements for 2014 through 2016, and to reach or exceed SCP's voluntary renewable requirement for SCP's 33% renewable CleanStart service. The vast majority of these purchases are for Category 1 and Category 2, with only a small amount of Category 3 RECs (3% of load) utilized as allowed under the RPS requirements. The procurement under these contracts is competitively priced. For the years 2017 and 2018, SCP has procured the vast majority of our RPS qualified energy to meet both our mandated and voluntary renewable targets through our four long term power purchase contracts, Geysers 1 and 2 and Mustang 1 and 3. Weighed against the Plan Principles, the near term Constellation contracts: Supports GHG emissions reductions by supporting qualified renewable solar resource energy supply. The supply costs compare favorably against projected procurement costs for renewable power 22

24 products used in projections at program launch, and are very competitive in the marketplace for comparable supply. Does not promote local economic benefits. Reasonable collateral posting through use of a secured account and a designated minimum balance somewhat constrains SCP s ability to engage in bundled procurement from alternative suppliers. Carbon Free Electric Energy Also through contracts with Constellation, SCP has secured enough carbon free energy (mostly comprised of large hydroelectric energy) to meet SCP s aggressive GHG emission reduction goals for 2014, 2015 and 2016 without taking any GHG credit for Category 3 RECs. The carbon free energy is priced competitively and helps support GHG emission rates approximately 30% lower than PG&E. This is a particularly notable accomplishment for SCP because PG&E, due to ownership of a large nuclear power plant and considerable hydroelectric resources, has one of the lowest GHG emission factors of any major utility in the country. Weighed against the Plan Principles, the carbon free energy contracts: Supports GHG emissions reductions by specifying supply from hydroelectric energy sources. The supply costs compare favorably against projected procurement costs for specified source hydroelectric energy used in projections at program launch, and are very competitive in the marketplace for comparable supply. Does not promote local economic benefits. Reasonable collateral posting through use of a secured account and a designated minimum balance somewhat constrains SCP s ability to engage in bundled procurement from alternative suppliers. Conventional Energy After all of the previously described resources are taken into account, SCP's remaining customer demand for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are met with conventional fossil sources under contract with Constellation. This residual fossil procurement is largely from gas fired electric energy from utility scale generators and is competitively priced, helping to meet SCP s energy and capacity obligations. Conventional unspecified source energy procurement does not directly support reduced GHG emissions nor local in state economic development. However, the substantially lower costs versus 23

25 renewable and in county resources supports a very competitively priced bundled portfolio procurement cost. Fossil energy procurement is a necessary bridge to serve SCP s customers in the near term while positioning SCP for the future. At this stage further reduction of fossil energy procurement is cost prohibitive (including those costs associated with credit and collateral), though SCP continually monitors market conditions for opportunities to prudently shift away from conventional energy sources. Five Year Summary of Resources under Contract The chart below shows SCP s currently contracted wholesale energy supplies from all sources through 2018, plotted against our forecast aggregate energy sales to participating communities (including Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park which are projected to begin taking service in mid 2015). Figure 5. Five year Forecast SCP Load with Supply under Contract Description and Timeline of All Energy Supply Resources under Contract The table below summarizes the major wholesale energy supply contracts SCP has executed as of December Table 6. Major Wholesale Energy Supply Contracts, Through 12/31/14 Contract Name Description Term Phase 1/1A Bundled Conventional, Carbon Free, and Renewable Energy and Resource Adequacy 5/1/2014 through 12/31/2016 Contract to Meet Phase 1 Load. Phase 2 Bundled Conventional, Carbon Free, and 12/1/2014 through 24

26 (2014/2015) Renewable Energy Contract to Meet Phase 2 Load for 2014 and Phase 2 (2016) Bundled Conventional, Carbon Free, and Renewable Energy Contract to Meet Phase 2 Load in Geysers 1 10 Year Bundled Renewable Energy and Resource Adequacy Contract from Local Geothermal Resources, beginning with 10 MW in 2014 up to 18 MW in Geysers 2 10 Year Bundled Renewable Energy and Resource Adequacy Contract from Local Geothermal Resources, beginning in Contract is structured to bring total Geysers 1 and 2 delivery to 30 MW in 2017 and 50 MW from 2018 through /31/2015 1/1/2016 through 12/31/3016 5/1/2014 through 12/31/2023 1/1/2017 through 12/31/2026 Geysers 3 1 Year, 65,000 MWh Category 1 RPS qualified energy. 1/1/2017 through 12/31/2017 Mustang 1 Mustang 3 Mustang 4 20 Year, 30 MW Renewable Energy Contract from New Solar Photovoltaic Project in California beginning delivery in Year, 40 MW Renewable Energy Contract from New Solar Photovoltaic Project in California beginning delivery in Note: Mustang 2 is a separate 30 MW portion of the total project which was sold by the developer to another party. 1 Year, 30 MW Renewable Energy Contract from New Solar Photovoltaic Project in California delivering in /1/2017 through 12/31/2036 1/1/2017 through 12/31/2036 1/1/2017 through 12/31/

27 CHAPTER 5 POTENTIAL FUTURE RESOURCES With the recent addition of the communities of Cloverdale, Petaluma and Rohnert Park to our service territory, SCP has a moderate open position to fill in 2015 and However, under a five year planning horizon, the majority of unmet resource needs will still be in 2017 and The procurement done through 12/31/14 to meet short term needs exclusively involved power related products (including energy and capacity) from existing supply side resources. This resulted from the driving need to successfully launch the program and meet the immediate energy needs of our customers at competitive rates. A critical factor limiting the scope of possible new resources was the lead time needed to identify and implement or construct resources of any kind at a large scale. Given these constraints, the Plan Principles of SCP (identified in Chapter 1) guided and will continue to guide near term procurement to prudently focus on existing supply side resources. In the medium and longterms these same Plan Principles will continue to guide procurement from a greater range of types of resources, both demand and supply side. In identifying potential resources to meet the energy needs of SCP customers, it is important to appreciate that the objective of meeting energy needs may involve SCP supporting both demand and supply side development, as long as these investments prudently balance Plan Principles and the objectives identified in SCP s Joint Powers Agreement. Energy needs can be met by increasing supply or by reducing demand. In fact, the storage mandate adopted by the California Public Utilities Commission offers a prime example of the ways in which policy makers and energy sector planners are considering non traditional resources to meet California s energy needs. Resources that can potentially meet SCP s resource needs include: Conventional and renewable large scale generation sources; Local renewable projects, such as those under 1 MW eligible under SCP s ProFIT feed in tariff program; Larger scale (> 1 MW) local energy supply projects procured through SCP s wholesale competitive solicitation processes (under consideration for future design and implementation). Demand side energy efficiency and demand response programs; Small scale renewable projects, such as rooftop solar, supported by SCP s NetGreen net metering program; Conventional and renewable generation sources, such as Calpine Geysers and Recurrent Mustang, as well as existing SCP programs such as ProFIT and NetGreen, have been addressed elsewhere in this 26

28 Resource Plan. Because SCP has been operating for less than a year, the scope of this Plan is presently limited to the medium term. As SCP service stabilizes, builds financial strength and evolves internal process and capabilities, more time and resources will be available to explore and expand the scope of potential resources to meet medium and long term needs. These will be reflected in both SCP operations and in future iterations of this Resources Plan. Near Term Demand Side Resource Planning At this stage, SCP is exploring the following types of resources at a high level, and will continually engage with stakeholders, customers and the public as they are considered in greater detail: Community renewable projects (sometimes referred to as Community Solar). Energy efficiency education, customer site analysis or audits, retrofits, product support, onbill repayment and other financing mechanisms. Demand response (DR) including aggregated, automated and hybrid forms of conservation upon request. Electric vehicle infrastructure, charge control and related opportunities. Other fuel switching (replacement of gas powered appliances and devices with smart electric powered devices). For the near term, the above potential Sonoma Clean Power energy programs are intended to provide customer education about greenhouse gas emissions, energy and efficiency while reducing the need to purchase electricity overall: whether by reducing energy demand, increasing supply, switching to lower carbon fuel sources or balancing daily and seasonal loads. As secondary objective is to support and/or drive customers toward existing programs offered by PG&E and County of Sonoma Energy & Sustainability, such as Sonoma County Energy Independence Program (SCEIP) and Windsor Pay as You Save (PAYS). Medium and Long Term Demand and Supply Side Resource Planning While the potential of SCP to explore and implement any given set of possible energy resources is limited, a key part of SCP s resource planning process will involve engaging with outside organizations to solicit expertise and learn from experiences gained elsewhere in commercializing emerging technologies and designing innovative energy programs. Considered broadly, novel opportunities available to SCP and our customers could include: Developing autonomous microgrids that can optimally draw from the existing grid and operate as an electrical island where appropriate. 27