1 Standard Work for Optimal Inventory Management Putting practical science to work
2 Presenter Edward S. Pound COO, Factory Physics Inc. 27 years in manufacturing JVC manufacturing engineering Honeywell (AlliedSignal) general management Three entrepreneurial ventures executive management Education et al BSME, MSME, MBA President-Elect IIE Work Systems Division Plays tennis, paddle, golf, softball all to varying levels of average, likes fly fishing Factory Physics for Managers, with Bell and Spearman, April 2014
3 Agenda Practical Science Inventory Planning Policy Information Technology Usage Using Your Own System
4 Goals 1. Provide a quick overview of Factory Physics Science. 2. Review inventory practice as a source for standard work controls 3. Provide an outline for a different approach to manage inventory with your own systems.
5 Factory Physics Science An overview
6 Answers from science What to make When to make it How much to make How many people and machines needed. How much inventory to have. High On-time delivery, low cost, low inventory
7 What are the right questions? High Long Term Profitability The Goal Low Costs High Sales Low Unit Costs Quality Product High Customer Service High Throughput High Utilization Low Inventory Fast Response Many products Less Variability Short Cycle Time Low Utilization High Inventory More Variability Management typically bounces back and forth and calls it continuous improvement.
8 The Fundamental Factory Physics Framework Two essential components Demand Transformation Flows Stocks Buffers develop when variability is present. Demand Stock Flow Diagram Planned Demand Planned Demand Production Assembly Distribution Only three buffers: 1. Inventory 2. Time 3. Capacity Market Demand Market Demand - Work In Process (WIP) -Flow - Stock (Inventory) A practical, scientific approach.
9 Operations Strategy: Choose the future! Variability Suppliers Inventory Capacity Inventory Customers Time Operations strategy is selecting the portfolio of: Inventory Buffer money tied up in inventory Time Buffer responsiveness to customer (backorder time, fill rate) Capacity Buffer replenishment frequency (setups, purchase orders) Variability in demand, forecast, and replenishment Portfolio management determines performance and profitability.
10 How it Works There s physics behind Factory Physics science. Behind generic IT and continuous improvement, not so much.
11 Inventory Planning Policy What s the big deal?
12 Goals of Inventory Planning High Customer Service On-time delivery Low Inventory Levels Raw Material and Finished Goods High Utilization Keep the lines running (RM)
13 When to Order? How Much to Order? Order early enough to get on time but not so early to increase inventory. Order enough for efficiency but not so much to increase inventory
14 Policies Many different policies ROP, ROQ aka (Q,r) MRP time-phased reorder point Days of supply, safety stock, etc. Order up-to, Min-max Periodic review, continuous review Illustrate concepts with continuous review (Q,r) policies Can translate to other policies as well Implement Time-phased reorder point or (Q,r)
15 (Q,r) Policies Order Q items when the Inventory Position hits or goes below r Inventory Position = On Hand + On Order Backorders Track Inventory Position not on hand only!
16 (Q,r) Policies (cont d) Q represents cycle stock r = Avg Replenishment Time Demand + Safety Stock Safety Stock considers Variability in demand Variability in supply (LT) Amount ordered
17 Inventory Terminology 80 Quantity r Cycle Stock Q RT Safety Stock Day I(t) DATA: ROQ = 50, ROP = 75, AvgLT = 10, AvgDmd = 5 SS r = reorder point; Q = reorder quantity RT = average replenishment time
18 Inventory Position Example On Order 8 Inv Position Quantity 6 4 On hand 2 Back Order Day IP(t) I(t) IO(t) B(t) DATA: ROQ = 5, ROP = 3, AvgLT = 6, AvgDmd = 0.5 Demand Inventory Position = On Hand + On Order - Backorder New orders based on Inventory Position
19 Inventory Position Provides System Control Always between r+1 and r+q. Completely in planner s control Factory Physics Inc.
20 Determining Control Limits: Setting Optimal Policies Too simple: EOQ does not consider randomness Wrong: Traditional safety stock model, Safety Stock = z SD(Replenishment Time Demand) where z is from normal table Wrong and Too Simple: ABC with fixed periods of supplies
21 Case Study: Fortune 500 Discrete Manufacturer with 100s of Plants Worldwide Product Classes % Demand Value Days of Lot Size A+ 0-50% 7 7 A 50-80% B 80-95% C % D No demand Days of Safety Stock Use traditional ABC-like method for inventory control Such methods are enshrined in ERP systems such as SAP and Oracle What is the impact?
22 Case Study: Actual ABC Policy vs. Optimal Policy Assuming the same customer service levels $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Actual Optimal $200,000 $100,000 $- * High Usage - Long LT High Usage - Short LT Low Usage - Long LT Low Usage - Short LT *LT = Lead Time
23 Inventory Behavior Key Driver Variance of Replenishment Time Demand VRTD As VRTD goes up Average inventory goes up Fill rate goes down d D L Inflation term due to demand variability Inflation term due to supply variability Must take all components into account for optimal control.
24 Efficient Frontiers for Inventory Policy Set Strategy with Optimal Global Policies Execute with Item Specific Policies
25 Information Technology Usage Think? Why think! We have computers to do that for us. - Jean Rostand, French biologist and philosopher.
26 Classic Scheduling MRP/ERP Benefits Simple paradigm, hierarchical approach Computers handle a tremendous amount of detail Problems MRP assumes that lead times are an attribute of the part, independent of the status of the shop or supplier MRP uses pessimistic lead time estimates MRP performs lot sizing without considering capacity Lot sizes are often too large No optimization of PO quantities Spreadsheets Everywhere!
27 Modern Scheduling APO/APS Advanced Planning and Scheduling Benefits Better for complex situations Problems Does not consider randomness Cannot be optimal must use heuristics Schedule the average the Happy Path Promotes nervousness Reschedule often
28 The MRP Planning and Control World Order Material Build Time Unit Ship date Planning Lead Time Material Dock Date Pretty straightforward, nothing complicated about it.
29 Responding to change. Order Material Supplier s going to be late. Time MRP message: Pull in! Ship Date New Material Dock Date Order Material Customer delays shipment. Time MRP message: Push out!
30 Natural Behavior of Operations Logistics Order Material Time Unit Ship date Material Dock Date The world is full of uncertainty.
31 ERP/MRP model response Order Material Time Unit Ship date Pull in Pull or Push in or Push out or out Cancel or Cancel Pull in Pull or Push in or Push out or out Cancel or Pull in Pull Pull or Push in in or or Push Push out or out out Cancel or or Cancel Cancel Pull Pull in Pull or Push in or Push out or out Cancel or Pull in or in Push or Push out out or Cancel or Cancel Pull in Pull or Push in or Push out or out Cancel or Cancel Pull Pull in or in Push or Push out or out Cancel or Cancel Pull Pull in or in Push or Push out out or Cancel or Cancel Pull in or Push out or Cancel Material Dock Date The ability to respond quickly does not guarantee good control.
32 Using Your Own System Computers are useless. They can only give you answers. - Pablo Picasso
33 Standard Work for Inventory Control 1. Determine expected ranges of demand and replenishment time. 2. Set policies to achieve required goals of: Fill Rate Customer service Cost 3. Control system to ensure daily execution is within control limits. 4. Adjust only when out of control
34 Control Stock points Inventory position below lower limit Release optimal order size Inventory position above upper limit Cancel orders Sell inventory Wait for burn off
35 Policy Monitor: (Q,r) Approach Red order more. Blue Cancel. White No problem.
36 Policy Compliance (1) Number of Part Numbers
37 Policy Compliance (2) Quantity of Noncompliant Pieces
38 Policy Compliance (3) Dollars of Noncompliant Pieces
39 Policy Compliance (4) Quantity of Noncompliant Pieces by Buyer (Einstein)
40 Policy Compliance (5) Dollars of Noncompliant Pieces by Buyer (Einstein)
41 In Conclusion The science and applied math of the Factory Physics framework provides an authentic advance in inventory control. 1. Set expected response ranges for demand and replenishment ranges a management decision. 2. Use policies that provide acceptable performance in those ranges. 3. Maintain control of your IT system. Manage by exception. Respond only to out of bounds change. The Factory Physics approach standardizes the framework so that strategies can be evaluated and tactics executed quickly to improve performance and profitability. The very essence of standard work
42 For further information contact: Ed Pound Factory Physics Inc. Phone: x ) Login or become a member 2) White papers available Preorder Factory Physics for Managers on Amazon.com
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