Best Practice Demand Planning Discussion Cathy Humphreys Business Development Manager UK

Transcription

1 Best Practice Demand Planning Discussion Cathy Humphreys Business Development Manager UK

2 Best practice Demand Planning - Discussion Pressure to improve Demand Planning Implications of current economic climate Improving the Demand Planning process Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Customer/Supplier collaboration Sales & Operation Planning process Potential benefits by moving towards best practice.

3 INstitute For Operations Research and Management GmbH HQ: Aachen, Germany 350+ employees Advanced Optimization software for Supply Chain / Logistics decision support 700+ Customer installations globally

4 Company Focus INFORM supplies IT systems for intelligent decision support based on advanced optimization technologies including fuzzy logic. Decision Support Systems Optimization Transaction systems e.g. SAP, other ERP Systems, Materials Management Systems, etc. IT Infrastructure Databases / Network systems e.g. DB/2, Oracle, Informix, Sybase e.g. TCP/IP, UNIX, NT

5 References out of more than 200 add*one customers Automotive Aftermarket Power-Tools

6 Best practice Demand Planning - Discussion Pressure to improve Demand Planning Implications of current economic climate Improving the Demand Planning process Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Customer/Supplier collaboration Sales & Operation Planning process Potential benefits by moving towards best practice.

7 Implications of the Current Economic Climate Stay one step ahead = predictive & strategic Increased volatility / uncertainty of demand patterns Pressure on cost of agile/ responsive strategies External changes competitors / market price Innovations / customer collaboration

8 Improving the Process Understanding your Demand and your portfolio Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Customer/Supplier collaboration

9 Evolutionary stages of Demand Focus Forecasts Constraintbased S&OP Opportunitybased S&OP Active Demand Translation MRP VMI Demand Visibility Demand Shaping Orders Orders Channel Sensing Market Opportunity I II III IV Reacting Anticipating Collaborating Orchestrating Courtesy of

10 Aligning Metrics Cost Detail Supplier Quality AP Production Schedule Variance Perfect Order Supplier On-Time Demand Forecast RM Inv Plant Utilization SCM Cost Cash-to-Cash Inventory Total Purchase Costs WIP & FG Inventory Responsive The ability to respond to unforeseen changes in market demand (+/- 20%) for existing products Differentiate on Availability AR Order Cycle Time Dir Mtl Costs Perfect Order Detail Time Responsiveness Quality Agility Demand Forecast Efficiency Cost Cost Detail Supplier Quality AP Production Schedule Variance Perfect Order Supplier On-Time Efficient Demand Forecast Inventory Total RM Inv Plant Utilization SCM Cost Cash-to-Cash Purchase Costs WIP & FG Inventory AR Order Cycle Time Dir Mtl Costs Perfect Order Detail The degree to which a system can minimise total delivered cost and waste Differentiate on Total Landed Cost Agile The ability to adapt to changing market requirements related to new products and technologies Differentiate on Adaptability Supplier Quality AP Production Production Cost Schedule Schedule Detail Variance Variance Perfect Order Supplier On-Time Cash-to-Cash Inventory Total RM Inv Plant Utilization SCM Cost Purchase Costs WIP FG & FG Inventory AR Dir Mtl Costs Order Order Cycle Cycle Time Time Perfect Perfect Order Order Detail Detail Source: AMR Research

11 Integrated Analysis Demand Demand trending Time Time seasonal patterns Demand Demand outliers Time Structural interruptions Time

12 Improving the Process Understanding your Demand and your portfolio Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Improving decision making and reducing risk Customer/Supplier collaboration

13 Multi-dimensional demand planning regional structure.... key-account.... field store distribution center area customer region.. variant country.. product commodity group world product structure assortment

14 Demand Planning process hierarchy Forecast Manual input sales department Manual input central planner Valid plan Defined the process and authorisation for ONE plan

15 Combined planning view

16 Difference Analysis

17 Understanding Demand behaviour Predictability steady random Consumption value high low Sales value Forecast precision A B C High information density High planning accuracy Medium information density High planning accuracy X Y Z High information density Medium planning accuracy Medium information density Medium planning accuracy Consumption driven planning, Order-point- or Order frequency method automated replenishment Procurement in case of demand Reorder-point planning low Target of stock turnover high Runners Repeaters Strangers high Consumption frequency low

18 Portfolio analysis e.g. Top 10

19 Difference Analysis

20 Improving the Process Understanding your Demand and your portfolio Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Customer/Supplier collaboration

21 Evolutionary stages of Demand Focus Forecasts Constraintbased S&OP Opportunitybased S&OP Active Demand Translation MRP VMI Demand Visibility Demand Shaping Orders Orders Channel Sensing Market Opportunity I II III IV Reacting Anticipating Collaborating Orchestrating Courtesy of

22 Best practice Demand Planning - Discussion Pressure to improve Demand Planning Implications of current economic climate Improving the Demand Planning process Statistical Forecasting and Market Knowledge Software tools support Customer/Supplier collaboration Sales & Operation Planning process Potential benefits by moving towards best practice.

23 Benefits to change Predict to Prevail: Forecasting and Planning Service Demand in Challenging Times In an unstable economy, within a sector characterized by erratic demand, and under a constant mandate to control costs, service organizations must be able to forecast future work and plan when resources (people and parts) will be needed. Aberdeen surveyed 200 service organizations in December 2008 to determine how Forecasting and Planning (F&P) strategies, processes, and technologies affect operational excellence and customer satisfaction. Leading firms, those that prudently forecast and plan for upcoming demand as well as unify their corporate-wide F&P activities, report lower service costs, improved workforce utilization, and better inventory performance than their competitors. Jack McAvoy Aberdeen Group Benchmarking Report December 2008