December 8, Prof. Haresh Shah Chairman, ICRM Advisory Board at NTU, Singapore. Founder and Senior Advisor, RMS, Inc

Transcription

1 December 8, 2010 Prof. Haresh Shah Chairman, ICRM Advisory Board at NTU, Singapore Emeritus Prof., Stanford University Founder and Senior Advisor, RMS, Inc Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 2 nd Annual Meeting 8-9 December, 2010.

2 Risks faced by poor Catastrophe Risk BOP and Catastrophes in Asia Growth in Asia Micro-insurance Market Size CAT Micro-insurance Concept Challenges Future Micro-insurance insurance Initiatives from Asia 2

3 Poor are extremely vulnerable to their external surroundings. Health risks Disability Loss of life Pandemics Livelihood risk Loss of employment Loss of income Loss of income-earning family member Financial risks Loans Loss of income Catastrophe risk Natural Man-made 3

4 Catastrophes could be Natural: earthquake, flood, drought, pandemics, etc. Man-made: terrorism, etc. Impact of catastrophes Loss of life Economic losses Social disruptions People affected the most In Asia Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) population BOP in other parts of the world BOP population why? Poorer nations have limited resources, poor governance, competing demands on limited resources Challenge of handling various risks food, day-to-day livelihood, shelter, education for their children, etc. Protecting themselves and their families from catastrophe risk is not high on their agenda. 4

5 Asia is the home to the largest number of poor people of the world - (around 2 billion) Climate change issues will potentially impact Asia more than any other continent. Historically, Asia has suffered the most due to catastrophic events but has the least number of safety net or risk transfer mechanisms. The Asian Tsunami of 2004 The Kashmir earthquake of 2005 The Padang, Sumatra earthquake of 2009 Food Security Crisis is slow and ongoing unlike natural disasters. The rise in food prices render them unaffordable. India has a higher rate of malnutrition among children under the age of three (46% in year 2007) than any other country in the world. High life, economic and social vulnerability of poor nations and societies of Asia who are at the bottom of the economic pyramid. 5

6 The Report Card Looking at Facts Taking Action 6

7 7

8 ucsdnews.ucsd.edu 8

9 9

10 10

11 11

12 12

13 Number of killed Flood, 280,000 Epidemic, 208,000 Earthquake, 1,108, Storm, 920,000 Total = 6,600,000 Drought, 4,100,000 World ( ) Number of affected Storm, 798,000,000 Flood, 3,045,000,000 Estimated Damage (USD Million) Drought, 87,000 Drought, 2,180,000,000 Earthquake, 157,000,000, Epidemic, 22,000,000 Total = 6,200,000,000 Storm, 735,000 Earthquake, 448,000 Flood, 427,000 Epidemic, 0 Total = 1,700,000 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgium 13

14 Number of killed Number of affected Storm, 718,000,000 Flood, 201,000 Epidemic, 70,000 Total = 3,550,000 Storm, 850,000 Earthquake 918,000 Drought, 1,500,000 Estimated Damage (USD Million) Drought, 28,000 Flood, 2,900,000,000 Drought, 1,580,000,000 Earthquake, 126,000,000 Epidemic, 7,800,000 Total = 5,330,000,000 Storm, 155,000 Flood, 242,000 Earthquake, 315,000 Epidemic, - Total = 740,000 14

15 Number of killed All perils ( ) Number of affected Rest of the World, 900,000,000 Rest of the World, 3,000,000 Asia, 3,600,000 Asia, 5,300,000,000 Total = 6,600,000 Estimated Damage (USD Million) Total = 6,200,000,000 Rest of the World, 960,000 Asia, 740,000 Total = 1,700,000 15

16 Number of killed Rest of the World, 190,000 Earthquake ( ) Rest of the World, 32,000,000 Number of affected Asia, 920, Asia, 126,000,000 Total = 1,110,000 Estimated Damage (USD Million) Total = 158,000,000 Rest of the World, 133,000 Asia, 315,000 Total = 448,000 16

17 Asia is a growing economic and financial power for the 21 st Century. Largest rate of growth of real assets and urban centers on Earth. High asset growth has exacerbated the problems of Catastrophe Risks. 17

18 1. Tokyo Japan Asia 33,800, Seoul South Korea Asia 23,900, Mexico City Mexico North America 22,900, Delhi India Asia 22,400, Mumbai India Asia 22,300, New York USA North America 21,900, Sao Paulo Brazil South America 21,000, Manila Philippines Asia 19,200, Los Angeles USA North America 18,000, Shanghai China Asia 17,900, Osaka Japan Asia 16,700, Kolkata India Asia 16,000, Karachi Pakistan Asia 15,700, Guangzhou China Asia 15,300, Jakarta Indonesia Asia 15,100,000 All perils: earthquake, typhoon, flood, 18

19 Daily survival risks Least safe buildings highest casualties Destroyed livelihoods Exposed to other perils A natural catastrophe pushes many of them down the unrecoverable poverty spiral! 19

20 How much does a good design of new buildings help the poor? Is retrofitting a feasible option to poor? Can governments finance (in traditional i ways) the protection of all? Great advances we have made towards designing and retrofitting for safety and performance are necessary and should continue! Canweretrofiteverything? everything? Andwhatcanwedowhile we do while retrofitting efforts slowly make progress? 20

21 21

22 Micro-insurance provision of protection to the low-income people against the consequences of specific risks, in exchange for regular premiums proportionate to their livelihood and cost of risk involved. Types Health Micro-insurance Life Micro-insurance Agriculture Micro-insurance Livestock Micro-insurance CAT Micro-insurance insurance Etc. 22

23 Global market 3 billion people Currently covered 140 million mainly in Africa and Asia 50% of micro-insurance products are focused on life and health h Less than 10% of micro-insurance is currently aimed at farms and farmers, but has potential. ti India, Indonesia and the Philippines have the biggest potential ti for growth according to the industry officials. i 23

24 Catastrophe Micro-insurance provision of protection to the low-income people against the consequences of catastrophes such as earthquake, flood, drought or weather risks, in exchange for regular premiums proportionate to their livelihood and cost of risk involved. The idea is to create risk mitigation techniques for BOP instead of focusing solely on disaster (risk) response strategies after the disaster has occurred. 24

25 Provide coverage to meet the catastrophic needs of the low- income population Minimize operating costs Minimize i i the cost (including the transaction costs for the clients) to enhance affordability and accessibility Provide cash in hands of those people who are affected 25

26 BOP is poor Insurance premiums unaffordable Lack of education Low trust in insurance industry Insurance companies Find subsidizing gpremiums unaffordable Cost of underwriting is high Transaction costs are high Operating costs are high Premium pool generation through Governments? Micro-insurance bonds? 26

27 Many Stakeholders Customer low-income people, clients of micro-finance institutions Insurance provider commercial insurance provider Facilitators rural Banks, micro-finance institutions Entrepreneurs village-level entrepreneurs Payment channels rural banks, micro-finance institutions, mobile payment companies Government and Regulators Funding partners diaspora sending remittances, donors, government. Need a Catalyst to bring them all together 27

28 Many pilots but no sustainable and scalable products yet We have all the parts Technical expertise Insurance expertise Financial understanding Social understanding What we don t have, ability to put them all together e and come up with a self-sustainable and scalable CAT microinsurance product! We need a Driver to drive this micro-insurance eco- system! 28

29 Re einsurers Drivers of the wheel: Independence Objectivity Competence Education of stake holders Bring stake holders together Development banks / agencies Regulators MFI s 29

30 India National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) Rashtriya Swathya Bima Yojana (RSBY) (National Health Insurance Scheme) Several other health, life and weather related insurance schemes by Bajaj Allianz, ICICI Lombard, ITGI and other insurance companies Philippines Several health, life and agriculture insurance schemes Indonesia Health and Life insurance schemes Weather-related insurance schemes such as Flood Insurance China Subsidized weather insurance Other developing countries are also developing micro-insurance! Potential ti to grow CAT Micro-insurance! i 30

31 regular insurance wealth micro insurance Bottom of the Pyramid - BOP Needs of the populations served Commercial viability and sustainability population 31

32 Dominantly rural inventory (building stock) Double Trigger Parametric Solution 55 million households covered 10 RMB premium (90% subsidized) Cover all destroyed (un-inhabitable houses (16, 000 RMB per house) Cash payouts to all policy holders in the epicentral county of 500 to 1,000 RMB 32

33 Feasibility case study earthquake micro insurance program Average value of a rural house ~ 66,800 RMB (Yearbook 08 data, assuming 4 people per household) Policy coverage Limit of 16,000 RMB meaningful CAT coverage for farmers Policy type step policy (to minimize operational costs) Full limit (16,000 RMB) for a collapsed or red tagged (uninhabitable) house No payment for other levels of damage Individual annual premium = 10 RMB (affordability!) Total countrywide premium: 10 RMB *(222 m./ 4) = 550 million RMB Claims and client services - insurance agencies and village organizations Is the program feasible and sustainable? What are the benefits for the involved stakeholders? 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

34 % 16 Government AAL = 4.6 m. = 188 m. Reinsurance or ART AAL = 13 m. = 183 m. PI : AAL = 163 m. = 321 m. 12 billion R.P. ~ 900 yrs. 4 billion R.P. ~> 100 yrs. 2 billion Loss s (RMB Billion) % 0.95% 88% Probability 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L 34

35 Feasibility case study earthquake micro insurance program Layer Expense Amt. (mil. RMB) PI : Primary Ins. AAL = 163 m. = 321 m. RI : Reinsurance AAL = 13 m. = 183 m. GOV : Government AAL = 4.6 m. = 188 m. Risk loaded AAL * Fixed costs: 2.5% of collected premium Loss adjustment: 5% of layer AAL 0.025* * Risk loaded AAL * Brokerage: 25% of premium 0.25* Risk loaded AAL * Brokerage: 11% of 0.11* premium All Layers Countrywide Premium (100% participation) Premium Over Expenses Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

36 Earthquakes, cyclones, floods, drought Often two catastrophe events in the same year 2001 Bhuj earthquake : more than 20,000 dead 167,000 injured, one million destroyed homes. Economic loss ~ USD 2 billion 2005 Flood Killed several hundred and affected millions. Economic loss ~ USD 2 billion. Year Peril 1965 Drought 1979 Flood 1982 Flood 1982 Storm 1986 Flood 1993 Flood 1993 Storm 1994 Flood 1997 Flood 1998 Flood 1998 Storm 2000 Drought 2001 Earthquake 2002 Drought 2005 Flood 2006 Flood 2007 Flood 36

37 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

38 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

39 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

40 MFIs - Credit Default Risk Loans based on trust rather than collateral Loan insurance if any, is only against death of the beneficiary rather than their economic insolvency Affected clients will likely default on payback of loans No options to recover loans outstanding Clients - Livelihood Risk Survivors lose health, home and means of income. They lose livelihoods! They have no immediate monetary relief aid to put their lives back together Poor are set back even farther than where they started out before micro-loan 40

41 Total outstanding micro-loans 1.3 billion INR Number of loans (households served) 325,000 Average (per loan) outstanding amount 4,000 INR Operating area: whole of Gujarat Clients served below the poverty line (BPL) Data used in the study are not specific to any MFI or the MFI industry in Gujarat. It is based on our interpretation of some publicly available data. One of the goals of our discussions is to get such data for the completion of the study, leading to earthquake micro- insurance protection in Gujarat for the MFI s and the poor who are their clients. 41

42 Layer Expense Amount (INR) PI Pi Primary Insurance Risk loaded daal 520, *3,400,000 02* ,200, AAL = 520,000 Fixed costs: 2.5% of collected premium * 1,625,000 40,625 Loss adjustment: 3,400,000 5% of layer AAL 0.05 * 520,000 26,000 Expenses Total: 1,266,625 Gujarat wide premium (100% participation) 5 * 325,000 1,625,000 Premium over expenses 358,375 This program is adequate for traditional and well diversified insurance company, where the cat micro-insurance program is smaller part of their book of business Individual id premium of 5 INR could sustain the program 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L 42

43 Layer Expense Amount (INR) PI Primary Insurance Risk loaded AAL 380, *1,900, ,000 AAL = 380,000 Fixed costs: 2.5% of collected premium * 1,950,000 48,750 Loss adjustment: 1,900,000 5% of layer AAL 0.05 * 380,000 19,000 RI Reinsurance Risk loaded AAL 140, *2,100, ,000 Brokerage: AAL = 140,000 25% of collected premium 0.25 * 1,950, ,500 = 2,100,000 All Expenses 1,875,250 Gujarat wide premium (100% participation) 6 * 325,000 1,950,000 Premium over expenses 74,750 This (or more complex) program is necessary for a small regional insurance company without much diversification in its own book of business. It must seek diversification through reinsurance risk transfer in the global reinsurance market (for a price!) Individual premium of 6 INR could sustain the program 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L 43

44 State has extreme climate in terms of rainfall and temperature; The floods are reported almost every third year in one or other part of the state; State has witnessed many damaging floods during recent time (GSDMA, 2006) Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L

45 Identification and verification of a trigger qualifying event Incomplete coverage of measuring stations (gauges) g in developing countries Incomplete / insufficient flow data Traditional approach to developing flood risk models (for indemnity it based insurance) difficult, costly and time consuming.(high resolution exposure, DTM, river networks,...) Limited reporting agency capability to identify trigger event Alternative approach (methodology) Flood event identification through rainfall data (much denser and more complete coverage) Flood severity estimation from rainfall data and regional flood proneness analysis Account for cross correlation amongst measuring stations Trigger event identification based on reporting agency data 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L 45

46 Part related to micro-loans default risk: MFI Part related to loan holders livelihood risk Loan holders, or Part of the interest rate (MFI), and/or Subsidies ( money pools, governments, NGOs) Solutions l reached through h interaction ti of the involved stake holders 46

47 Demonstrate that the multi peril micro-insurance program for the MFIs in Gujarat and their micro-loan is feasible (after pilot study completion) For MFI s: protection against loan default in case of earthquake For loan holders: immediate financial assistance in post earthquake recovery Primary Insurance: commercially viable product expansion, low operational costs, recognition of social responsibility Reinsurers: product expansion uncorrelated with existing business, low operational costs, recognition of social responsibility Government: Reduced impact of catastrophes 2010 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. L 47

48 48

49 49

50 Catastrophes devastate those who are already struggling with the normal everyday life sustenance. Technological solutions (better construction and retro-fitting of existing dwellings) continues to be globally promoted by governments, NGOs and academic institutions. These are truly valuable in minimizing the catastrophic loss of life and economy. Over the five decades during which time we have learned so much about the earthquakes and ways for designing and building dwellings and other structures, the devastations due to such events continue unabated. The micro-insurance products may not save the lives of those who live in poorly constructed homes, but they will certainly help those who lived through the disaster towards putting their lives in order after the event. A true holistic solution would be a global thrust for better housing construction and a better way to help those who survived and who need to deal with the economic calamity that follows for the poor of the world disaster after disaster. Those are the kinds of bridges we need to build for the last mile. 50

51 Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 2 nd Annual Meeting 8-9 December, THANK YOU