The Role of World Bank in Supporting Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool

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1 Innovations in Managing Catastrophic Risks World Bank Conference Washington DC January 8-10, 2000 The Role of World Bank in Supporting Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool Eugene N. Gurenko Insurance Common Anchor Team Financial Sector Department World Bank

2 Main Issues: Governments can no longer afford to ignore their fiscal and economic exposures to natural disasters. Governments can successfully apply sophisticated risk assessment and risk management techniques available to the private sector to reduce their catastrophic exposures. Yes, there is a role for development banks, and the World Bank, in particular, in hedging catastrophic exposures of client countries. 2

3 Presentation Outline: Designing National Catastrophe Risk Management Strategy Historical Background of Establishing TCIP Main Features of EQ Insurance Program Program of World Bank Technical and Financial Assistance to TCIP Status of Program Implementation 3

4 Designing National Catastrophe Risk Management Strategy Objectives: (i) substantially reduce the loss of life through effective mitigation efforts; (ii) reduce the financial exposure of the government to natural catastrophic events and, (iii) by transferring risks away from individuals and firms, encourage them to behave in an economically more productive fashion (by taking desirable investment risks). 4

5 National Catastrophe Risk Management Country Assets (people, housing, factories, schools ) Flood, Earthquake, Wind. Revise Strategy Reinsurance/Alternative Risk Financing Strategies Risk Analysis Expected Annual Loss Loss Exceedance (PML s) Risk Transfer Cost/Benefit Lower Risk Mitigation, Land use planning Source: EQE No (Risk Transfer/Financing) Achieve Risk Management Objectives? Yes Manage Position No (Risk Reduction) 5

6 National Catastrophe Risk Management Claims, solvency, operations, risk financing Risk Mgmt. Building codes, land use, disaster management Coordination- Natural Disaster s Sales & Distribute policies, collect premium, service claims Claims Service National Responsibility / Accountability Risk financing Equity Reinsurance Gov t. Risk allocation, rating plan, pricing, transfer Insured Insurer Reinsurer/Capital Markets Loss probability & severity Expected Annual Loss 100,200,500 yr. loss Loss parameters Potential loss Inventory Vulnerability Hazard Buildings Infrastructure Agriculture GDP NATURAL PERILS: EARTHQUAKE, FLOOD, WIND, DROUGHT 6 Source: EQE

7 Historical Background of Founding the TCIP Turkey Earthquake Losses Since US$ millions Year Expected Annual Economic Losses due to Earthquakes around $1 billion Marmara and Duzce Earthquakes death toll >18,000; damage >$10 billion In the century up to 1995, sixty-six earthquakes of intensity VIII or greater were recorded Istanbul is worst risk - likely direct economic costs from intensity VIII event 7 >$25 billion and its estimated probability is rather high.

8 Source: EQE 8

9 Adapazari - near total damage due to liquefaction and soft-soil shaking amplification. 9 Source: EQE

10 Historical Background of Founding the TCIP Low EQ insurance penetration - about 2% outside Istanbul and 15% within Istanbul; almost 0% in low-income, middle-class segment of property market Highly competitive, poor underwriting standards, systemic links with the banking system Low capital base and low level of reserves against earthquakes in the domestic insurance industry Poor prospects of expanding EQ coverage since Disaster Law mandated funding of replacement of dwellings nearly free of charge Insufficient technical capacity in pricing and managing catastrophic risk in the industry Continuous government financial exposure to EQs Inadequate understanding and management of EQ risk by households and contractors 10

11 Historical Background of Founding the TCIP Bank Emergency Loans Erzincan Earthquake Reconstruction Loan of $240 million Turkey Emergency Flood & Earthquake Recovery (TEFER) Loan of $369 million Marmara Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction Project (MEER) of $505 million Limitations of World Bank Emergency Lending Cannot provide all liquidity needed Large emergency loans crowd out important development lending Bank is ill equipped to provide instant liquidity after disasters (a record-breaking MEER took >1 year to make money available) reliance on Bank retroactive lending and emergency donor relief is unsustainable due to frequency of catastrophes 11

12 Historical Background of Founding the TCIP Objectives: Ensure most domestic dwellings have EQ insurance. Reduce government fiscal exposure. Transfer most of catastrophe risk to international reinsurance and capital markets. Overtime, build up TCIP s capital base to insure against larger events Encourage risk mitigation and safer construction practices 12

13 Main Features of EQ Insurance Program Legislation Amendment of the Disaster Law: no more government interest-free loans to homeowners Enactment of Earthquake Insurance Decree Law: EQ insurance is made compulsory TCIP is created as the sole-source provider of EQ coverage up to $30,000 TCIP was required to become operations on September 27,00 Pending Enactment by the Parliament of Earthquake Insurance Law introduces penalties enhances the Decree law 13

14 AN OVERVIEW OF GOVERNMENT CATASTROPHE INSURANCE POOLS AND FUNDS 14 Source: Guy Carpenter

15 Main Features of EQ Insurance Program Compulsory EQ cover for all registered residential dwellings Stand-alone product, separate from fire (homeowner s) insurance Cover up to $30,000 per dwelling & none for contents 15 rating categories based on hazard zone and the type of buildings Cover in excess of TCIP (>$30,000) is obtainable from private insurers Private insurers distribute TCIP policies acting as agents, i.e. assume no risk of loss To eliminate penny claims and reduce administrative and reinsurance costs of the pool, a deductible of 2% will be introduced. Online (web-automated) policy underwriting and data management Independent (hired by TCIP) loss adjusters are used in claim settlement Outsource extensively Premium reserves held in creditor-proof escrow accounts, with at least 50% invested in foreign assets 15

16 Main Features of EQ Insurance Program Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool Organizational Structure Board of Directors General Directorate of Insurance Oversight/Program Implementation Pool Management Company (Milli Re) Claim Adjusters IT Providers Reinsurance Capital Markets World Bank Policy Distributor (Insurance Company) Policy Distributor (Insurance Company) Policy Distributor Insurance Company Policy Distributor Insurance Company 16

17 Main Features of EQ Insurance Program TCIP Claim Settlement Procedure Overall protection against losses up to $640 million in the first 5 years If claims exceed TCIP s available financial resources, claims pro-rated (although it is likely that the GOT will step in) Within reinsurance retention (deductible): Bank up to $17m; then Accumulated premiums or reinsurance - 60%: Bank - 40% Reinsurance always pays 1st (where applicable) Above excess of loss reinsurance limit Bank 100% (up to unused balance of $100m) 17

18 Main Features of EQ Insurance Program TCIP Reinsurance Program: Design Features Lowest long-term average price Scalable coverage -- able to be adjusted to the growing needs of TCIP as penetration rate increases and exposure development becomes known Price stability to allow consistent rate-setting for homeowners (ability to renew coverage at a certain rate in the future, diversified base of reinsurance providers) High coverage credit quality (A+ and up). Coverage which allows quick, uncontested settlement to permit speedy relief to victims Coverage of multiple events Options to renew 18

19 World Bank EQ Insurance Program Technical Assistance to TCIP: Modeling of TCIP s exposure and pricing of property risk (a tariff review) Insurance policy design Developing TCIP policy distribution and accounting systems Underwriting guidelines Public relations campaign Training Reinsurance and reinsurance intermediary services Investment policy and fund management Improving regulatory framework and enforcement of building codes 19

20 World Bank EQ Insurance Program World Bank Financial Assistance to TCIP: The World Bank will provide up to $100 million in an Uncommitted Contingent Loan facility which will finance: 100% of eligible claims, up to $17 million, to the extent that accumulated premiums are insufficient to fund them, up to the attachment point of reinsurance of any kind. After the reinsurance attachment point, the Bank financing of the retained risk will be 40% with rest to be funded by premiums or reinsurance. If the losses during the initial years are greater than the funds built up in the pool, together with any reinsurance of excess of loss reinsurance cover, the World Bank will finance 100% of claims, up to $82.5 million, which cannot be met either by TCIP itself or reinsurers 20

21 World Bank EQ Insurance Program Contingency of World Bank Financial Assistance: The disbursement of the Bank facility is contingent upon: (i) progress in regulatory reform; (ii) satisfactory in the technical work on the launch of TCIP; (iii) purchase of reinsurance that would ensure no gaps in the capital structure; (iv) presented evidence of insurance claims. The World Bank will also finance the costs of risk transfer program (reinsurance and, possibly, capital markets) for the first 2-3 years of TCIP s operations. The reinsurance program supported by the World Bank will replace the initial 12 months reinsurance cover financed by the government. 21

22 World Bank EQ Insurance Program Current Status of Program Implemention: Pool is fully operational (over 130,000 policies sold) Reinsurance is placed ($540 million) Risk modeling and exposure data collection services Preparation of TOR for IT Systems and Underwriting Guidelines Training of TCIP and GDI staff Preparation of EQ Insurance Law Placement of Reinsurance Program Preparation of Public Education/EQ Awareness Campaign Procurement of IT Systems 22

23 The Role of World Bank in Managing Catastrophic Exposure of Client Government Assistance in Assessing Country s Catastrophic Exposure Assistance in designing national risk management programs such as insurance pools and accessing reinsurance and capital markets. Assistance with the design and choice of hedging instruments at the macro level. Innovations and design of new World Bank hedging instruments for client countries with reinsurance and capital market participation. 23

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