Feasibility study on the REDD+ project with establishing the Sustainable REDD+ monitoring system in northern Sulawesi Island

Transcription

1 FY2014 Feasibility Study for the Joint Crediting Mechanism for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation-Plus Feasibility study on the REDD+ project with establishing the Sustainable REDD+ monitoring system in northern Sulawesi Island March 2015 Kanematsu Corporation

2 Contents 1. Study Overview Study objectives Study content Assessment of the current status, policies, and other aspects of climate change in Gorontalo Province, North Sulawesi Province, and Indonesia as a whole Assessment of the Indonesian government's climate change-related measures, their implementation structure, and other related topics Review of the system for the implementation of climate change-related measures in Gorontalo and North Sulawesi Provinces Review of the emission factors used in RAD-GRK Consideration of a sustainable monitoring structure Study on specific cooperation possibility for the project, finance required for materializing the project, and other approaches to set up the environment Study on establishment of the monitoring system of three parties namely Kanematsu, Gobel Group and the local government Confirmation of applicability on site including methods for the ground research using GPS by community participation, in order to execute effective and efficient monitoring by using QGIS as the analysis software and combining remote sensing data of the Japanese satellites on the basis of satellite images of LANDSAT, and execution of the technical guidance to local staffs concerned Study on finance of Fund type (Non-market type), Market type, and their combination Consideration of an applicable methodology for calculating emission reductions and application of this methodology to calculated expected emission reductions Revision of the methodology for registration by the JCM JC Calculation of emission reduction using land cover data and the emission factors developed by the Gorontalo provincial government Results The Investigation on Economic Effect and Other Effects Brought About by a Project Drawing up a Business Plan based on Expected Emission Reduction and Effect of Reduced Monitoring Cost Study on the Possibility of Lateral Spread to the Countries in Africa, South America Possibility of Contribution to Preservation of Biodiversity Conservatory and Improvement of Land Utilization Management Conducted by Local Governments at the Target Regions Conclusion... 79

3 ANNEX ANNEX 1 MRV Methodology 1

4 1. Study Overview 1.1. Study objectives In the northern part of Indonesia's Sulawesi Island, a major driver of deforestation is shifting agriculture. During the study conducted in FY2012, we found that deforestation in Gorontalo Province as a whole was advancing at an average rate of 1.17% annually. Furthermore, according to the Local Action Plan for GHG Emission Reduction (RAD-GRK) released by the Gorontalo provincial government, an area of 4,576 ha is deforested in the province each year. According to ONF International (ONFI), agricultural activity by the local population is also the driver of deforestation in the neighboring Northern Sulawesi Province, with deforestation in the ONF's REDD+ project area proceeding at an average rate of 2% annually. In this study, based on the results of the study conducted last year, we will examine the feasibility of implementing REDD+ projects in the Gorontalo and North Sulawesi Provinces, with the aim of supporting the shift from corn to cacao cultivation, conducting forest monitoring, and other related activities. In order to develop the methodology and establish the implementation structure necessary for implementing the projects, we examined a number of topics as described in section 1.2 below Study content (1) Assess the current status, policies, and other aspects of climate change in Gorontalo Province, North Sulawesi Province, and Indonesia as a whole. Examine the situation surrounding the REDD+ Agency and the status of RAD/GRK monitoring in Gorontalo Province, North Sulawesi Province, and Indonesia as a whole and consider the monitoring system and methods that will be required as a result. Study the Indonesian government's climate change-related measures, their implementation structure, and other related topics. Study the Gorontalo and North Sulawesi provincial governments climate change related measures, their implementation structure, and related topics. Examine the emission factors used in RAD-GRK. Assess the establishment of a sustainable monitoring system. (2) Assess the possibilities for concrete cooperation in implementing the project, the funding necessary for implementation, and other aspects related to the implementation of the project. In order to establish a monitoring system that is highly accurate and economical, we will consider employing a method of analysis that is based on the use of Landsat satellite images and the open source software QGIS (Quantum GIS). In addition, we will also examine possible funding sources and other aspects related to the implementation of the project. Study the establishment of a system in which monitoring is conducted jointly by Kanematsu Corporation, the Gobel Group, and the provincial government. 1

5 Develop an effective and efficient monitoring system that combines the use of the analysis software QGIS, Landsat satellite images, and remote sensing data from Japanese satellites. In addition to providing technical training to the local staff, assess the possibility of participation by local communities in conducting on-the-ground monitoring using GPS and the applicability of such a system locally. Assess both market-based and non-market based financing, as well as a combination of the two systems. (3) Develop an emissions reduction methodology that is applicable to the project and calculate estimated reductions based on the methodology We will review and refine the methodology in consideration of the possibility of using the methodology in other parts of Indonesia, or in other countries where the drivers of deforestation are similar, and with the aim of strengthening its effectiveness and thus enabling the registration of the JCM with the JC (Joint Committee). In addition, we will also calculate the estimated emissions reductions based on the refined methodology. Refine the methodology to enable the registration of the JCM project with the JC. Calculate emission reductions using land cover data and the emission factors provided by the Gorontalo Province government. (4) Assess the economic benefits and other impacts of the project. Taking into consideration emission reductions estimated based on the refined methodology, draw up a business plan, and assess the prospects of reduced monitoring costs. Draw up a business plan that takes into consideration anticipated emissions reductions and the prospect of reduced monitoring costs. Study the possibilities for the adaptation of the project to other regions, such African and Latin American countries. Review the project's possible contribution to the preservation of the biological diversity of the area and the possible positive impact on the land-use management practices of the local government 2

6 2. Assessment of the current status, policies, and other aspects of climate change in Gorontalo Province, North Sulawesi Province, and Indonesia as a whole 2.1. Assessment of the Indonesian government's climate change-related measures, their implementation structure, and other related topics Recent developments in the organizational structure related to the implementation of REDD+ activities in Indonesia The Indonesian government established the REDD+ Agency as a ministerial level agency in charge of REDD+ activities through Presidential Decree No.62/2013 in December The agency was to be headed by Minister Heru Prasetyo as the Agency s Chairman. This was followed by Presidential Decree No.71/M2014 in January 2014 with the appointment of four deputies who will assist the chairman in running the agency s operations. The four deputies inaugurated were Dr. Ir. William Palitondok Sabandar as the Deputy for Operation; Dr. Ir. Agus Pratama Sari as the Deputy for Planning and Funding; Nurdiana Bariyah Darus as the Deputy for Technology, System, and Monitoring; and Dr. Ir. Nur Masripatin as the Deputy for Governance and Inter-institutional Relations. The following are the main duties of the four deputies: Deputy for Operation will be responsible for the agency s day-to-day operation, inter-program synergy, and good coordination among stakeholders and partners in implementing REDD+ at the national and sub-national levels. Deputy for Planning and Funding will ensure good planning for all REDD+ programs and will lead the operation of the REDD+ funding mechanism (FREDDI), which aims to raise REDD+ support from various sectors, such as the government, the private sector, and the public. Deputy for Technology, System, and Monitoring will be responsible for providing technological support for REDD+. Governance and multi-stakeholder collaboration are the key to the success of REDD+, and the Deputy for Governance and inter-institutional Relations will therefore have the important task of strengthening good governance in the forestry and peatland sectors by improving law enforcement, sustainable forest management, and creating synergy among policies, programs, and intersectoral engagement in REDD+. Although the REDD+ Agency was responsible for the integration and coordination of REDD+ related policies and programs at all levels between the central and regional governments, the implementation of REDD+ will occur at the sub-national level. Therefore, the REDD+ Agency was to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with local governments for cooperation in implementing REDD+. Up until now, MoUs have been signed between the agency seven provinces, and it is expected that the signing of such agreements with all the provinces will be completed in 3

7 Table 2.1-1:Provinces which signed the MoU with REDD+ Agency Province District/Regency Date signed 1 Jambi 1. Merangin 2. Muara Jambi 3. Tebo 2 Central Kalimantan 1. Barito Selatan 2. Gunung Mas 3. Kapuas 4. Katingan 5. Kotawaringan Timur 6. Murung Raya 7. Pulang Pisau 3 East Kalimantan 1. Berau 2. Kutai Kartanegara 4 West Sumatra 1. Solok Selatan 2. Solok 3. Sijunjung 4. Padang Pariaman 5. Pasaman Barat 6. Pasaman 7. Pesisir Selatan 8. Padang (Kota) 5 Central Sulawesi 1. Donggala 2. Tolitoli 3. Sigi 4. Tojo Una-Una 5. Parigi Moutong June 21 st, 2013 October 11 th, 2012 June 21 st, 2013 March 12 th, 2014 April 13 th, South Sumatra - August 20 th, Riau - October 29 th, 2014 (Source: BP REDD+ However, after the change in government and the inauguration of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, the restructuring of government organizations that occurred also brought about changes in the implementation structure of REDD+. With the formation of the cabinet in October, the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Forestry were merged to become the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, with jurisdiction over both environmental as well as forest-related policies. Furthermore, based on Presidential Decree No.16/2015, issued by the president on January 21, 2015, the REDD+ Agency was dissolved and its role and functions were transferred to the Ministry of Environment and Forestry. Based on the same decree, the National Council on Climate Change (DNPI) was also integrated into the new ministry. The decree, however, does not provide details on 1 BP REDD+ 4

8 how the mergers will be conducted RAD-GRK-related monitoring guidelines The National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) has developed a series of guidelines for monitoring GHG emissions and emissions reduction related to the implementation of RAD-GRK (including activities in the forestry sector). Below is an overview of the guidelines. The monitoring method described in this FS was developed with reference to these guidelines. 1) Sectors subject to monitoring The Technical Guideline for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting (MER) of RAD-GRK Implementation (herein after MER), developed by BAPPENAS in 2013, specifies the technical methodology to be used in monitoring GHG emissions for the various sectors in each of the provinces. The guideline covers the following sectors:(table 2.1-2) Table 2.1-2:Sectors covered by MER guideline for RAD-GRK 1 Land use Agricultural sector Forestry and peatland sectors 2 Energy related Energy sector Transport sector 3 Waste management Solid waste sector Liquid waste sector 2) Activities subject to monitoring and calculation of emissions The purpose of MER for RAD-GRK is the monitoring, evaluation, and reporting of the results of mitigation measures and RAD-GRK implementation. Specifically, the following core and support activities are to be monitored: Core activities: Activities that have a direct impact on GHG emissions and removal. Support activities: Activities that have an indirect impact on GHG emission reduction, activities that promote the implementation of core activities, and activities that enable the implementation of core activities Emissions are calculated based on the following formula: (GHG emissions) = (activity data) (emission factor) Activity data is defined as data on the magnitude of human activity resulting in emissions or removals taking place during a given period of time. The data is monitored and evaluated using specific performance indicators. The indicators vary according to the RAD-GRK mitigation actions in each province. 2 Jakarta Post, January 29 th,

9 3) Use of emission factors Emission factors/removal factors (EF/RF) are defined as the emission or removal rate of GHG per unit of the activity. According to the guideline, region-specific emission EF/RF should be used whenever available. If factors unique to the region are not available, the use of factors developed for a nearby region or the use of national or provincial emission factors is recommended. Moreover, to simplify reporting, a series of EF/RF is provided in the sectoral section of the MER guideline. Emission factors/removal factors not listed in the guideline are determined jointly by the Ministry of PPN/BAPPENAS and the Climate Change Coordination Team. 4) Monitoring, evaluation, and reporting implementation procedures The following are the MER implementation procedures for sectors (including forestry and peatland sectors) classified under the land-use section: 1The monitoring phase a) Listing of all emission reduction activities implemented as part of the regional development program during the reporting year. Activity data is obtained from the activity implementation report, regional government reports, and reports developed by other stakeholders. b) Activities listed as described above are classified into core activities and support activities. c) Core activities are further classified into forestry sector core activities and agricultural sector activities based on whether their aim is carbon stock reduction prevention (PPCK) or carbon stock gain (PCK). d) Activity implementation performance indicators are included as part of the key performance indicators e) For each land cover type, activity implementation performance indicators are included in the activity data obtained based on surface area changes. 6

10 2Evaluation phase In the evaluation phase, the local and central governments evaluate RAD-GRK activities with the following objectives: The GHG emissions reduction action plan is evaluated based on emission reductions achieved and the activity data. For each land cover type in the province, changes in activity data are evaluated. RAD-GRK activities implemented are evaluated, and recommendations are made regarding emissions reduction activities to be conducted during the next fiscal year. When the local government conducts evaluations, and GHG emissions reductions are evaluated based on activities implemented and the costs involved, both the investments made by the government and investments made by other stakeholders are taken into consideration. Although the emission factors used are normally those recommended by the central government, region-specific emission factors may also be used. 3Reporting phase The reporting phase of the RAD-GRK activities consists of the reporting of the activity, verification of the report, modification of the report, and approval of the report. 5) Overview of MER for the forestry and peatland sectors As part of MER for the forestry and peatland sectors, emission reduction activities are monitored and evaluated against the BaU baseline emissions calculated in the RAD-GRK. Core activities in these sectors consist of those activities that have a direct impact on emission reductions and emission reduction calculations. During MER, the following data are monitored: Changes in activity data relative to the BaU scenario Changes in emission factors relative to the BaU scenario Forestry and peatland sector related activity data consists of data on forest and land area created as result of land-use changes that lead to GHG emissions or carbon fixation. The MER guideline provides the following monitoring forms to be used during monitoring. 7

11 Table 2.1-3:Monitoring forms for forestry and peatland sectors provided in the MER Guideline Type of forms Activities monitoring forms Support form for emission reduction calculations Monitoring form Core activities monitoring form Support activities monitoring form Form for calculation of changes in forests and land use in mining areas Form for calculation of changes in forests and land use in peatland areas (Source: Technical Guideline for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting (MER) of RAD-GRK Implementation, BAPPENAS, 2013) Monitoring items for MER Guideline Forestry and peatland related core and support activities are shown in Table Table 2.1-4:Monitoring items for Core and Support activities Activity type Monitoring items Core Activities a) Carbon Stock Reduction Prevention (PPCK): Activities that aim to protect against, prevent or lower the rate of change from a land cover type with high carbon accumulation potential to a land cover type with low caron accumulation potential (for example: prevention of illegal logging and illegal land occupation, regulations related to land use modification, forest fire prevention, improvement of forest management sytem, etc.) b) Carbon stock gain (PCK): Activities that aim to make improvements to carbon sinks, such as afforestation and forest and land restoration activities. Core activity content Implementation site Objectives Implementing period Budget allocation (planning, implementation) Key performance indicators Activity implementation rate (%) BAU emissions Mitigation activities related emissions Emission reductions Associated benefits 8

12 Activity type Monitoring items Suppport Activities a) Activities having an indirect impact on achieving GHG emission reduction targets. b) RAD-GRK forestry and peatland sector related activities that make these activities possible. Mitigation activities implemented under the RAD-GRK by the end of the reporting year Implementation site (administrative district, GPS data, GIS data, etc.) Related core activities Type of support activities (examples: strengthening of institutional capacities, quality improvement, provision of infrastructure and technologies, formulation of regulations and policies) Implementation period of mitigation activities Objectives of emission reduction activities Achievement level of mitigation activities in the reporting year (cumulative achievement since the starting year) Budget allocation plan for mitigation activities in the reporting year Budget allocated for mitigation activities in the reporting year Financial source for mitigation activities Implementing body of mitigation activities National Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) in Indonesia Paragraph 71 of decision 1/CP.16 requested developing countries aiming to undertake REDD+ activities under the convention, in the context of the provision of adequate and predictable support, including financial resources and technical and technological support, to develop a number of elements as follows: REDD+ National Strategy or Action Plan Forest Reference Emission Level/Forest Reference Level (FREL/FRL) A robust and transparent National Forest Monitoring System Safeguards Information System The government of Indonesia had been developing FREL and they had published it on the REDD+ Agency s web site in December FREL is a benchmark for assessing Indonesia s performance in implementing REDD+, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Technical definition of FREL adopted in this document is a projection of CO2 gross emissions that is used as a reference to compare against actual emissions in a given point of time in the future. Definition of Forest in establishing FREL:Forest is defined as Land spanning more than 0.25 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters at maturity and a canopy cover of more than 30 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. This is the definition of forest stated in the Minister of 3 Submission By Indonesia National Forest Reference Emission Level For Deforestation And Forest Degradation (FREL) In The Context Of The Activities Referred To In Decision 1/CP.16, Paragraph 70 (REDD+) Under The UNFCCC, 9

13 Forestry Decree No 14/2004 on A/R CDM. The definition of forest used in the MoFor decree was established to meet the requirement of climate change mitigation scheme under CDM and thus relevant to be used in FREL construction. This definition was used by the Ministry of Forestry for the purpose of ground-truthing in order to support satellite image classification. In this document, the term working definition of forest was used to produce land cover maps through visual interpretation of satellite images in a scale that minimum area for polygon delineation is 0.25 cm2 at 1: 50,000 of scale which equals to 6.25 ha. The term working definition was used within the Indonesian National Standard (SNI) 8033:2014 on Method for calculating forest cover change based on results of visual interpretation of optical satellite remote sensing image. The SNI defined forest based on satellite data feature including colour, texture and brightness. Forests were classified into seven classes based on forest types and degradation or succession level. Six of the seven forest classes were classified as natural forests (Table 2.1-5). Table 2.1-5:Land cover classes used in Forest Reference Emission Level No. Land cover class Category IPCC s classification 1 Primary dryland forest Natural forest Forest 2 Secondary dryland forest Natural forest Forest 3 Primary mangrove forest Natural forest Forest 4 Secondary mangrove forest Natural forest Forest 5 Primary swamp forest Natural forest Forest 6 Secondary swamp forest Natural forest Forest 7 Plantation forest Plantation forest Forest 8 Estate crop Non-forest Crop land 9 Pure dry agriculture Non-forest Crop land 10 Mixed dry agriculture Non-forest Crop land 11 Dry shrub Non-forest Grassland 12 Wet shrub Non-forest Grassland 13 Savanna and Grasses Non-forest Grassland 14 Paddy Field Non-forest Crop land 15 Open swamp Non-forest Wetland 16 Fish pond /aquaculture Non-forest Wetland 17 Transmigration areas Non-forest Settlement 18 Settlement areas Non-forest Settlement 19 Port and harbor Non-forest Other land 20 Mining areas Non-forest Other land 21 Bare ground Non-forest Other land 22 Open water Non-forest Wetland 23 Clouds and no-data Non-forest No data (Source: Submission by Indonesia, National Forest Reference Emission Level for Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of the Activities Referred to in decision 1/CP.16, Paragraph 70 (REDD+) under UNFCCC, December, 2014) 10

14 Definitions for establishing FREL: Deforestation:In this document, deforestation was defined as a conversion of natural forest categories into other land-cover categories that has only occurred one time in particular areas. Forest degradation:in this document, forest degradation is defined as a change of primary forest classes, which include primary dryland, primary mangrove and primary peat swamp forests, to secondary forest classes. Peat land:peat land is defined as an area with an accumulation of partly decomposed organic matter, with carbon content of at least 12% (usually 40-60% C content) and thickness of the carbon rich layer is at least 50 cm. The scope of the area for FREL calculation is Indonesia s land area that was covered by natural forest in year 2000, accounted for 99.3 million ha or 52% of the country s land area. This includes primary and secondary forests, regardless forest status under national forest area defined by MoFor. Indonesia is a home for 14.9 million ha of peat land and 8.5 million ha of the area was covered by natural forest in The latter was used in FREL construction. Other peat land area was excluded from FREL construction in the context of decision 1/CP. 16 paragraph 70. Activities included in the FREL are deforestation and forest degradation. However, wall to-wall monitoring for various level of forest degradation using current categories for land-cover is still problematic, which has led to high uncertainty in the estimates. Similarly, there are limited reliable data related to carbon sequestration. Therefore, other activities i.e. forest degradation at more detail level, conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests, enhancement of forest carbon stocks, were excluded in the current FREL construction. Through several steps to assess the available data, the land-cover data produced by the Ministry of Forestry was used as the basis for generating activity data for the FREL construction. This data is part of National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS) and has been stored in NFMS website ( These official data describes forest cover change, which has been developed and updated regularly since 1990s. For this FREL submission, the 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2011 and data sets were used to refer to the reference period. The land-cover map was produced by means of Landsat satellite images interpretation. The image interpretation process was conducted manually (visual interpretation) in a scale that minimum area for polygon delineation is 0.25 cm2 at 1: 50,000 of scale that equals to 6.25 ha. It means the minimum mapping unit of generated land-cover map is 6.25 ha. As described above, FREL was established as follows. The annual historical emission from deforestation, forest degradation and the associated peat decomposition (in MtCO2) from 2000 to 2012 is depicted in Figure Using reference period of , forest reference emission level from deforestation and 11

15 degradation was set at GtCO2e/yr. To this figure, the additional emission of GtCO2e/yr from peat decomposition was added with annual increment as much as 2.87% because of inherited emission. This FREL will be used as the benchmark against actual emission starting from 2013 to The emission from deforestation, forest degradation and the associated emission from peat decomposition for 2013 will be projected as 0.41 GtCO2e. In 2020, the emission figure will increase to GtCO2e. For annual monitoring, Table should be used as benchmark for evaluating emission reduction activities during the implementation period. Figure 2.1-1:Annual and average historical emissions from deforestation, 674 forest degradation and the associated peat decomposition (in MtCO2). (Source: Submission by Indonesia, National Forest Reference Emission Level for Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of the Activities Referred to in decision 1/CP.16, Paragraph 70 (REDD+) under UNFCCC, December, 2014) Table 2.1-6:Annual REL for deforestation, forest degradation and the associated peat decomposition (in tco2e) Year Deforestation Forest Degradation Peat Decomposition Total annual emission ,129,100 56,405, ,866, ,401, ,129,100 56,405, ,909, ,444, ,129,100 56,405, ,068, ,603, ,129,100 56,405, ,346, ,881, ,129,100 56,405, ,747, ,282, ,129,100 56,405, ,274, ,809,680 12

16 Year Deforestation Forest Degradation Peat Decomposition Total annual emission ,129,100 56,405, ,932, ,466, ,129,100 56,405, ,723, ,257,920 (Source: Submission by Indonesia, National Forest Reference Emission Level for Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of the Activities Referred to in decision 1/CP.16, Paragraph 70 (REDD+) under UNFCCC, December, 2014) Indonesia is currently endeavoring to achieve national security in food and energy and improved human resources qualities. The National Planning Agency/BAPPENAS stated that the Indonesian annual population growth is projected to reach 1.19 percent (from 238 million of population in 2010 to 296 million of population in 2030). This increasing trend of population growth will also bring consequences on the increasing demand for agricultural products as well as for settlement and other infrastructure development. Increasing trend of agricultural production is also connected to the increasing global demand on agricultural products. Without adequate provision on genetically improved seeds and sustainable practices, increasing demand for such agricultural products may 748 lead to increasing demand for additional land for agriculture, hence it may increase pressure to forest land Review of the system for the implementation of climate change-related measures in Gorontalo and North Sulawesi Provinces Implementation of the Local Action Plan for GHG Emission Reduction (RAD-GRK) in Gorontalo Province 1) Organizations involved in the implementation of RAD-GRK in Gorontalo Province The parties involved in implementing RAD-GRK in Gorontalo Province are the government, the private sector, and the local community. Government in this case includes both the central and local governments (provincial, prefectural, and city governments). Out of the 31 administrative areas of the government, agencies in 11 areas are involved in GHG emission reduction related RAD-GRK activities: Public works, Residential, Spatial Planning, Development Planning, Transport, Environment, Agriculture and food security, Forestry, Energy and Mining, Industry, Animal Husbandry. Related agencies in the Gorontalo provincial government involved in the implementation of RAD-GRK are the following eleven departments: Department of agriculture and food security, Department of Fishery and Naval, Department of Mining and Forestry, Department of Education, Youth and Sport, Department of Transport and Tourism, Department of Welfare, Department of Health, Department of labor and immigration, Department of Public Works, Department of Industry, Trade and Cooperatives, Department of Plantation and Animal Husbandry. In addition to the above local government agencies, other agencies involved in the 13

17 implementation of RAD-GRK activities include the Regional Body for Planning and Development (BAPPEDA); the Environment, Research, and Information Technology Agency; the Regional Investment Authority; and the Village Empowerment and Poverty Reduction Agency. Entities other than the above mentioned government agencies involved in implementation include Pertamina the state-owned oil and natural gas corporation and Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) the state-owned electricity corporation. From among institutions of higher education, the Environmental Research Center of the Gorontalo State University, and from the private sector, the Organization of Land Transportation Owners (Organda) also participate in implementing RAD-GRK. 2) Implementation of forestry sector related RAD-GRK in Gorontalo Province The following Tabel is an overview of the agencies involved in forestry sector related RAD-GRK activities in Gorontalo Province. Although the aim of the various activities is stated to be the restoration of diminishing land cover in the province, attempts at imposing restrictions on land development is hampered by obstacles such as those involving property rights. Table 2.2-1:RAD-GRK forest sector related agencies and activities Sector related agencies GHG emission sources GHG emissions reduction activities Remarks *Ministry of Forestry *Department of Mining and Forestry *State Forestry Corporation (Perum Perhutani) *Provincial Development Planning Agency (BAPPEDA ) *Increased as a result of sector related policies *Agricultural biomass *Decline in land cover *Evaluation of forest related policies *Forest and land restoration planning *Measures to increase land coverage *Support for implementation of Green Indonesia Program (MIH) related measures * Although imposing restrictions on land development is an additional measure that can be taken its realization is hampered by obstacles such as property rights. *In addition to forest restoration, other potential measures include, reforestation, and the creation of green belts in cities. (Gorontalo Province RAD-GRK, p.103) The implementation of the following five RAD-GRK forestry sector related activities are planned for the period between 2013 and 2020 in Gorontalo Province. The REDD+ project under consideration in this FS is expected to contribute to forest restoration in watersheds and the increased production of non-wood forest products, and it is considered to be consistent with these programs. Promotion of mangrove forest restoration Restoration of forests in high priority watersheds 14

18 Restoration of degraded land in high priority watersheds Increased production of non-wood forest products Prevention of illegal logging 3) Implementation of RAD-GRK monitoring and evaluation in Gorontalo Province The following activities are carried out as part of the monitoring of GHG emissions implemented annually in Gorontalo Province. Monitoring components 1 RAD-GRK monitoring is implemented jointly by the government, universities, and the private sector. 2 GHG emissions calculations are performed on an annual basis by a team from the Gorontalo Environment Agency (BLH) in cooperation with related departments and agencies of the provincial and city governments. 3 The GHG emission baseline data is compiled by the BHL team. 4 Progress with regard to each GHG emission source is calculated by associating the baseline data obtained with the monitoring results for each respective year. 5 GHG emissions reduction targets to be included in the Regional Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMD) (2017 to 2021) for Gorontalo Province are established. 6 Mitigation activities related indicators included in RPJMD are integrated into policies for other sectors and incorporated as items in the Local Government Agency s Strategic Planning (Renstra-SKPD) and the Local Government Agency s Work Plan (Renja-SKPD). Evaluation components 1 The baseline data considered most appropriate is obtained by developing, comparing, and verifying the baseline data for the various GHG emission sources and volumes in Gorontalo Province. 2 Information regarding GHG emission sources and emission calculation results are made public through mass media and electronic means. In addition, activities implemented by the Gorontalo provincial government, the private sector, and the community are also reviewed. 3 A person is appointed as the official in charge of GHG emissions and is responsible for evaluating the results of the GHG emissions reduction action plan. The GHG emissions reduction action plan is evaluated every three to five years in relation to the various other plans and policies. The mechanism by which RAD-GRK is integrated is shown in Figure The following is the evaluation of RAD-GRK, development and spatial plans, and policies related to other sectors. 15

19 5 Gorontalo Province RAD-GRK related plans and budget are evaluated based on Ministry of Interior Regulation No. 54 of Renstra K/L RenjaK/L RPJPN RPJMN RKP APBN RAN-GRK RAD-GRK RPJPD RPJMD RKPD APBD Renstra-SKPD Remja-SKPD Figure 2.2-1:The mechanism by which RAD-GRK is integrated (Source: Gorolontalo RAD-GRK, p.110) RAD-GRK related GHG emissions reduction performance indicators are included and quantified in the RPJMD, the Renstra-SKPD, the Renja-SKPD, and the various policies related to other sectors. In the final stage, monitoring evaluation results are summarized in the Report on Accountability and Performance of Government Institutions (LAKIP). The report results are used by the central and local governments (provincial, prefectural, and city) in formulating the annual development policies and budgets Execution of the provincial greenhouse gas emissions reduction plan (RAD-GRK) in North Sulawesi Province In this feasibility study, since it is supposed that the project will be evolved into the surrounding area from Gorontalo Province, we reviewed the GHG emission status of the forest sector of North Sulawesi Province (Fig ) adjacent to the east of Gorontalo Province and their GHG emissions reduction plan. In North Sulawesi Province, as well as Gorontalo Province, a provincial GHG 16

20 emissions reduction plan (RAD-GRK) had been formulated in 2012, and the forest sector is included in the plan. Central Sulawesi Gorontalo West Sulawesi North Sulawesi South-east Sulawesi Sulawesi Island South Sulawesi Indonesia Figure 2.2-2:Location of North Sulawesi North Sulawesi Province is located in the northern part of Sulawesi Island of which the area is 15,273 km 2 and the population is 2.26 million persons (as of 2010). The period of RAD-GRK in North Sulawesi Province is ten years from 2010 to 2020, and the area of interest covers eleven prefectures and four cities in the province. Although it is pointed out that illegal residence and land use in the forest area is one of the causes of deforestation as mentioned below, the population trends in North Sulawesi Province are shown in Table 2.2-2, and the population growth rate is about 1% per annum. Table 2.2-2:Population trand in North Sulawesi Province Year Popupation 2,154,234 2,121,017 2,160,641 2,186,810 2,208,012 2,228,856 2,265,937 (Source: North Sulawesi Province RAD-GRK, 2012, p.23) In RAD-GRK of North Sulawesi Province, a waste sector, transportation sector, energy sector, agriculture sector, industry sector, and a forest sector are listed as the GHG emission sources. Among them, the amount of emissions, the reduction activities, and the relevant implementation agencies are mentioned below. 1) Transition of the amount of GHG emissions and the land cover of the forest sector in North Sulawesi Province In North Sulawesi Province, for analysis of the forest sector, the amount of GHG emissions is 17

21 calculated by using Abacus SP (one of the software calculating the amount of emission based of the transition of land use and land cover) developed by International Centre for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF). Based on the data of land-use transition from 2006 to 2011 processed with Abacus, the annual net amount of GHG emissions of the forest sector in North Sulawesi Province is calculated to 902, tco2e. Since the annual carbon stocks is 6,667.97tCO2e while the annual amount of emission is 909, tco2e, the annual net amount of emission is 902, tco2e. In the meanwhile, the transition of land use of 2006 and 2011 in North Sulawesi Province is shown in Table The area of the natural forest and the secondary forest has been reduced while the area of farmlands, mixed lands of farmland and shrubs, and paddies has been increased drastically. From this, there is a possibility that the expansion of the agricultural site becomes a pressure of deforestation. It is suspected that there is a commonality of the driver of deforestation between North Sulawesi Province and Gorontalo Province. Table 2.2-3:Land use change in North Sulawesi Land cover class Area(ha) Change in area (ha) Primary dryland forest 273, , ,946.1 Secondary dryland forest 294, , ,179.5 Primary mangrove forest 10, , Secondary mangrove forest 2, , Plantation forest 2, , Swamp forest Dry shrub 87, , ,380.3 Dry agriculture 269, , ,772.9 Mixed dry agriculture 432, , ,652.3 Paddy field 45, , ,107.9 Swamp Residential area 22, , Airport, port Mining area Water body 8, , Open land 8, , (Source: North Sulawesi RAD-GRK, 2012, p.183) In RAD-GRK, it is pointed out that deforestation and forest degradation occur in North Sulawesi Province due to illegal occupation of land, illegal residence, illegal logging and conversion to vegetable gardens. The area of soil that is in very critical situation in the forest area is 7,655ha, the same in critical situation is 76,815ha, and the same in some critical situation is 131,533ha respectively. Soil in the forest of the area of 216,003ha in total is in some sort of critical situation. It is pointed out that this situation will bring about a change of the carbon stocks in the forest area. 18

22 2) Summary of activities in the forest sector in RAD-GRK for North Sulawesi Province The mitigation activities related to the forest sector in RAD-GRK are listed below. Their summary is shown in Table Increase of land cover: As activities for reducing emissions from the land sector, actions for increasing land cover per unit area and for maintaining the existing land cover by remaining the secondary forest as is are listed. These actions are related to the space use planning at the province and district level. Restriction of land use for residential: In North Sulawesi Province, the land use has been changed due to the residence of people. The community forests have, in particular, been changed to the residence and residential land. It is pointed out that preparation of high-rise residential buildings and residences outside the forest area is required in order not to reduce these forest areas. Recovery of degraded land: land critically degraded and land to be degraded in North Sulawesi Province must be preserved. Table 2.2-4:Agencies and activities related to the forest sector of RAD-GRK Agencies related to the sector GHG emission source GHG emission reduction activities Remarks Ministry of Forestry Department of Forest/plantation Forestry public corporation (Perum Perhutani) BAPPEDA (Provincial Development Planning Agency) Increase caused by the sector policy Agricultural biomass Reduction and degradation of land cover Degradation of forest due to eruption of volcano (Source: North Sulawesi RAD-GRK) Assessment of forest policy Recovery plan of forest/land Increase of land cover Implementation support for Green Indonesia (MIH) 3) Implementation system of RAD-GRK in North Sulawesi Province Survey for land degradation due to eruption of volcano is required. Although restriction of land development may be an alternative measure, there is a difficulty due to issue of land ownership. In addition to the forest recovery, afforestation and greening in urban area may be considered. Since various kinds of administrative agencies and other agencies are involved to implement RAD-GRK, a mechanism for coordinating the relevant agencies is required. On the basis of the Local Government Act (Law No. 32 of 2004), the implementation systems of RAD-GRK are sorted as shown in the Table In North Sulawesi Province, fifteen departments and agencies 19

23 are involved in six sectors subject to RAD-GRK. Furthermore, for the forest/peat sector, setting of BAU for GHG emissions and shared roles relevant to the mitigation activities are also sorted out as shown in Table In the sector, the Agriculture Bureau, Forestry Bureau, Horticultural Crop Bureau (Plantation Crop Bureau), and the Mine/Energy Bureau, as the situation demands, are involved for setting BAU. While the persons in charge in the respective bureaus are involved in data preparation and calculation, the Water Resources Management Bureau, Development Planning Bureau, Environment Bureau (BLH), Food Security Bureau, Statistics Bureau (BPS), Forestry Bureau, Agriculture Bureau, Horticultural Crop Bureau, and Mine/Energy Bureau are involved in actual work as the situation demands. Furthermore, the Water Resources Management Bureau, Development Planning Bureau, Environment Bureau, Forestry Bureau, Agriculture Bureau, Horticultural Crop Bureau, and Mine/Energy Bureau are responsible for the implementation after development of the mitigation activities. The monitoring assessment of the activities shall be implemented with the same steps as the monitoring assessment in Gorontalo Province as above-mentioned. Table 2.2-5:The respective sectors of RAD-GRK and the relevant bureaus and agencies in North Sulawesi Province Relevant bureaus and agencies Bureaus and agencies to be involved indispensably Bureaus and agencies to be involved selectively Provincial Water Resources Bureau Management Provincial Space Planning/Housing Bureau Provincial Development Planning Agency Transportation Bureau Environment Bureau (BLH) Agriculture sector Forest/peat sector Energy sector Transportation sector Industry sector Waste management sector (Source: North Sulawesi RAD-GRK) Food Security Bureau Public Health Service Bureau Statistics Bureau (BPS) Agriculture Bureau Forestry Bureau Livestock /Livestock Health Bureau Marine Fisheries Bureau Horticultural Crop Bureau Industry/Trade Bureau Mine/Energy Bureau 20

24 Table 2.2-6:Bureaus and agencies responsible for setting BAU and implementing the mitigation activities in the forest/peat sector of RAD-GRK Relevant bureaus and agencies Bureaus and agencies to be involved indispensably Bureaus and agencies to be involved selectively Mine/Energy Bureau Industry/Trade Bureau Marine Fisheries Bureau Livestock /Livestock Health Bureau Horticultural Crop Bureau Forestry Bureau Agriculture Bureau Statistics Bureau (BPS) Public Health Service Bureau Food Security Bureau Environment Bureau (BLH) Transportation Bureau Provincial Development Planning Agency Provincial Space Planning/Housing Bureau Provincial Water Resources Bureau Management Setting of BAU Implementation of the mitigation activities (Source: North Sulawesi RAD-GRK) 2.3. Review of the emission factors used in RAD-GRK The above mentioned MER guideline for RAD-GRK developed by BAPPENAS provides the emission factors for the forestry and peatland sectors, as shown in Table According to the guideline, region specific emission factors may also be used if available. The RAD-GRK of Gorontalo Province, which is the target area of this project, provides emission factors by land cover type, as shown in Table Table 2.3-1:Emission Factor in Gorontarlo RAD-GRK and the MER guidelines for RAD-GRK Land cover Land cover Emission factor(t-c/ha) code abbrev. Land cover class RAD-GRK MER guideline Gorontalo RAD-GRK Hp Primary Dry land Forest Hs Secondary Dry land Forest Hmp Primary Mangrove Forests Hrp Primary Swamp Forest Ht Plantation Forest B Bush Pk Plantations (Estate crops) P Settlement T Open Land S Grassland Hms Secondary Mangrove Forests Hrs Secondary Swamp Forest Br Swamp Bush Pt Dry land Farming

25 Land cover Land cover Emission factor(t-c/ha) code abbrev. Land cover class RAD-GRK MER guideline Gorontalo RAD-GRK Pc Mixed Dry Land Farming Garden Sw Rice Field A Ponds / Open water Bdr/Plb Airport / Port Tr Transmigration Tb Mining Rw Swamp 0 - (Source: Technical Guideline for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting (MER) of RAD-GRK Implementation, BAPPENAS, 2013, p.52) In addition, the Gorontalo RAD-GRK also indicates the carbon accumulation in aboveground and belowground biomass for each land cover type. In the case of both the primary and secondary forests, aboveground biomass accounts for approximately 90% of all carbon accumulation. Table 2.3-2:Carbon stock/emission factor in Gorontalo RAD-GRK Land cover class Blow ground biomass Above ground biomass Carbon Land t-c/ha % t-c/ha % stock/emission cover factor Abbrev. (t-c/ha) Hp Primary Dry land Forest Hs Secondary Dry land Forest Pk Plantations (Estate crops) Pt Dry land Farming Pc Mixed Dry Land Farming Garden It must be noted that from among the emission factors used in calculating FREL mentioned in above, the factor for Sulawesi Island shown below is somewhat closer to the value given in the Gorontalo Province RAD-GRK rather than the value given in the RAD-GRK guideline. 22

26 Table 2.3-3:The estimates of AGB stocks in each forest type in Indonesia Forest type Area Mean AGB (t/ha) N of plot measurement Primary Dryland Forest Sulawesi Whole Indonesia Secondary Dryland Forest Sulawesi Whole Indonesia Primary Swamp Forest Sulawesi Whole Indonesia Secondary Swamp Forest Sulawesi Whole Indonesia Primary Mangrove Forest Kalimantan Secondary Mangrove Forest Kalimantan and Sulawesi (Source: Submission by Indonesia, National Forest Reference Emission Level for Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of the Activities Referred to in decision 1/CP.16, Paragraph 70 (REDD+) under UNFCCC, December, 2014) 2.4. Consideration of a sustainable monitoring structure The estimation of forest carbon stocks must comply with international standards (such as the IPCC Guidelines), and must use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based data, as mentioned at COP 15 (FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1). Thus, monitoring in the REDD+ project also requires a combination of 1) remote sensing and 2) ground research. However, currently there are issues in terms of cost and human resources, as satellite images and analysis software used for remote sensing are costly, and technical experts for analysis are lacking in developing countries and local governments. Further, as human resources for ground research cannot be secured enough, often times verification of image analyses can not be easy for them A sustainable and low cost monitoring structure applying QGIS In Indonesia, the Ministry of Forestry conducts image analyses using LANDSAT, and creates land coverage maps of the whole country for each year. Based on this data, each province then reports its change in forest carbon stock as GHG emission reduction plans (RAD-GRK). However, as mentioned previously, since the local government is faced with issues of cost and lack of human resources, managing, editing, reporting and verifying monitored data within a limited organizational structure is in a challenging situation. To handle these issues, in this project, costs will be reduced by employing Quantum GIS (QGIS), a major open source GIS software, as the analysis software, and combining LANDSAT, which is free to use, with relatively affordable Japanese satellite images (PALSAR-2/ASTER) as necessary. Further, the issue concerning lack of human resources will be addressed by gaining cooperation from local residents with verifying image analyses and ground monitoring work. 23