Choosing Performance: An Analysis of School Location and Performance in Milwaukee

Transcription

1 Choosing Performance: An Analysis of School Location and Performance in Milwaukee

2 Choosing Performance: An Analysis of School Location and Performance in Milwaukee Acknowledgements IFF would like to thank the following individuals for their assistance with this project: Milwaukee Public Schools Office of the Superintendent William Andrekopolous Superintendent Michelle J. Nate Chief, Finance and Operations Office of Board Governance Lynne A. Sobczak Director/Board Clerk Division of Research and Assessment Deborah Lindsey, Ph.D. Director Cindy Raven, Ph.D. Research Specialist Division of Diversified Community Schools Kristi Y. Cole Acting Director Facilities and Maintenance Services Gina Spang Director Student Services Ron Ranieri Coordinator of Student Database Jodi Goldberg Director GreatSchools Milwaukee Robert J. Kattman, Ph.D. Director Office of Charter Schools University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Cindy Zautcke Institute for the Transformation of Learning Marquette University IFF would also like to thank the following individuals for sharing their reactions and insights during the development of the study and writing of the report: Corey Nettles Generation Growth Capital Education Committee Staff Greater Milwaukee Committee Vincent Lyles President M&I Community Development Corporation M&I Bank Howard L. Fuller, Ph.D. Institute for the Transformation of Learning Marquette University Alan J. Borsuk Marquette University Law School Timothy R. Sheehy Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce Bruce Thompson Milwaukee Board of School Directors Alderman Willie L. Hines, Jr. Milwaukee Common Council Dan McKinley PAVE Rob Henken Public Policy Forum Patrick J. Wolf, Ph.D. University of Arkansas College of Education and School Professions School Choice Demonstration Project Ricardo Diaz United Community Center Abigail Schumwinger Walton Family Foundation Funding for this needs assessment was provided by the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. IFF Project Staff Kaitlyn Bohlin Administrative Assistant Susan B. Cahn Director of Research Jose Cerda, III Vice President of Public Policy and Communications Trinita Logue President and CEO Daniel Muschler Administrative Assistant Joe Neri Executive Vice President Moira O Donovan Research Project Manager IFF Milwaukee Staff 215 N. Water Street Suite 225 Milwaukee, WI Heather Heaviland Milwaukee Community Initiatives Director Lanie Wasserman Wisconsin Director Design: Sam Silvio IFF May 2010

3 Choosing Performance: An Analysis of School Location and Performance in Milwaukee

4 2 Table of Contents 4 Introduction and Purpose 6 Overview of Demographics, School Types, and Enrollment 10 Definition of Terms 11 Methodology 15 Research Results 18 Citywide Results 20 Zip Code Analysis Results 30 Key Findings 31 Observations, Comments, and Conclusion 33 Action Steps 34 Appendices

5 List of Tables, Figures and Maps 3 Page Tables 9 Table 1: Enrollment and Capacity of Public Schools in Milwaukee by School Type 12 Table 2: Tier I and Tier II Criteria 14 Table 3: Weights for Calculating Current, Potential, and Regional Indicators 14 Table 4: Indicator Weights for Final Ranking of Zip Codes 15 Table 5: Zip Code Analysis: Tier I and Tier II Capacity by School Type 26 Table 6: Service Level, Service Gap, and Ranking of Top Eight Zip Code Areas 28 Table 7: Space Utilization in Tier I and Tier II Schools Figures 7 Figure 1: Percent of School-Age Children in Public and Charter Schools 7 Figure 2: Public and Charter School Enrollment by Number of Students, Percent of Total Enrollment, and School Type 17 Figure 3: MPCP Voucher Student Enrollment 19 Figure 4: Citywide Tier I Seats by School Type and Service Gap Compared to Current and Potential Enrollment 28 Figure 5: Student Attendance Patterns in Tier I and Tier II Schools Maps 13 Map 1: Milwaukee Study Geography 16 Map 2: Tier I and Tier II Schools 21 Map 3: Public and Charter Elementary School Tier I and Tier II Capacity by Zip Code Area 23 Map 4: Elementary School Service Level and Service Gap by Zip Code Based on Public and Charter Tier I and Tier II Seats 25 Map 5: High School Service Gap by Zip Code Based on Public and Charter Tier I and Tier II Seats 27 Map 6: K 12 Service Level and Service Gap by Zip Code Based on Public, Charter, and MPCP Tier I and Tier II Seats 29 Map 7: Tier I and Tier II Schools and Top Eight Zip Code Areas

6 4 Introduction and Purpose Choosing Performance: An Analysis of School Location and Performance in Milwaukee reflects the methodology of a needs assessment in which demand and supply are compared. The study was conducted by IFF, a nonprofit community development financial institution that provides financing, real estate services, and applied demographic research in low-income communities in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. IFF has been studying the distribution of performing schools in urban school districts since Originally developed to identify which community areas in Chicago should be a priority when locating new schools, IFF s methodology and analysis has since been applied on a broader scope to inform the education reform efforts in St. Louis, Denver, and Kansas City.

7 5 The primary objective of this study is to identify those areas in Milwaukee with the greatest number of school-age children but the fewest number of schools that meet state standards for academic performance. IFF analyzes enrollment figures as compared to seats in schools that meet performance criteria, thereby determining geographic areas of focus for planning the allocation of resources. The premise of this report is that all elementary and high school students should have the option of attending a performing school near where they reside. This underlying assumption emerged as awareness increased about the resources of school districts that are dedicated to providing choices that require student travel, but do not improve educational outcomes. Thousands of students commute to schools outside their communities in some cases long distances but do not receive a better education. This study differs significantly from existing research on the academic performance of students. It examines and ranks the overall performance of schools, where they are located, and where school-age children reside. The results are presented on maps using zip codes as the geographic area of analysis. Also included are detailed profiles of the city and eight zip codes which the report identifies as high-need. Despite the broad choices available to families among a combined 353 traditional public, charter, and private schools, this report finds that Milwaukee students do not even have a chance of enrolling in a school in any location that meets state standards. By pinpointing where low-performing schools and high densities of school-age children are concentrated, this study makes the case for where further reforms and resources will have the greatest value. Using this specific community-level information, commitments to a shared sense of purpose and objective accountability may have found new underpinnings. How To Read This Report The first two sections of this report contain important background information necessary to understand the results. This background includes the following: Overview of Demographics, School Types, and Enrollment School-Age Children Public Schools In Milwaukee Private Schools in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program Methodology Glossary of Terms The results of the research then begin on Page 15. The report concludes with Key Findings, IFF s comments captured as Observations, Comments, and Conclusions, and finally, Action Steps that are suggested by the knowledge gained through the completion of this study. The citywide and zip code profiles can be found in Appendix A.

8 6 Overview of Demographics, School Types, and Enrollment Milwaukee Public, Charter, and MPCP School Enrollment & Population Figures Milwaukee School-Age Population: 125, Milwaukee Public and Charter School Enrollment: 88,663 Milwaukee Residents in Public and Charter Schools: 87,814 Non-resident Public and Charter School Students: 849 Milwaukee Residents Attending Suburban Public Schools: 6,910 Total Enrollment in Private Schools Participating in MPCP: 27,510 Voucher Students in Private Schools Participating in MPCP: 19,947 School-Age Children Milwaukee s Potential Enrollment, or the number of children between the ages of 4 and 17, is 125,245. This equals 21.4 percent of the city s total population of 583, Approximately 90,000 of these children are elementary school age, or between 4 and 13, while the remaining 35,000 are high school age, between 14 and 17. During the school year, a total of 227 public and charter schools in Milwaukee enrolled 88,663 students in grades K4 through 12. Nearly all of these students, 87,814, reside in Milwaukee, with another 849 students traveling from surrounding suburban communities. The few students who reside outside Milwaukee are not included in IFF s analysis. Approximately 6,900 Milwaukee residents left the city to attend suburban public school districts. (See Appendix C) More than two-thirds of school-age children in Milwaukee attend a public or charter school. However, as Figure 1 shows, children of high school age are slightly more likely to attend a public or charter school, 72.3 percent, as compared to elementary school age children, 69.2 percent. Students in Milwaukee attend the following types of schools: MPS traditional public schools, neighborhood and citywide MPS charter schools, instrumentality and non-instrumentality selective MPS schools or those with admissions requirements other MPS schools: Early childhood care centers Partnership schools independent charter schools, authorized by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (UWM) or the City of Milwaukee s Common Council (the City) private schools, many of which participate in MPCP Figure 2 and Table 1 report enrollment by school type in public and charter schools in Milwaukee, not including students in private schools. 1. US Census, American Fact Finder, 2008.

9 7 Figure 1 Percent of School-Age Children in Public and Charter Schools 80% 70% 70.1% 69.2% 72.3% 60% 50% All Students Elementary High School Figure 2 Public and Charter School Enrollment by Number of Students, Percent of Total Enrollment, and School Type 8,394 9% 5,011 6% 3,008 3% 3,364 4% Traditional MPS Instrumentality Charter MPS Non-Instrumentality Charter Non-MPS Charter MPS Selective Other MPS Schools 9,064 10% 59,822 68%

10 8 Public Schools in Milwaukee Traditional MPS Schools Two-thirds of the 88,663 students enrolled in public and charter schools attend 122 MPS traditional schools, with 48,910 of those students enrolled in 99 neighborhood schools with designated attendance areas, and the remaining 10,912 in 23 citywide schools, which do not have attendance areas. Although neighborhood schools have boundaries and give priority for admission to students who live within those boundaries, all but four of these schools draw the majority of their students from outside of their designated attendance areas. These attendance patterns emerged as transportation options became available through MPS. As a result, students who are willing to travel are able to attend other neighborhood schools. Seventeen of the 23 citywide schools are specialty schools, including language programs or a Montessori curriculum. While these schools have no official boundary, it is the goal of MPS to enroll 55 percent of the students in entry-level grades from within the schools walk zones, which are one mile for elementary schools and two miles for high schools. When zip codes are used to define proximity, only two of these schools, however, enroll a majority of their students from the zip code where the school is located. Other MPS Schools MPS also includes 47 non-traditional public schools that are not necessarily open to all students. These schools include 31 partnership schools that serve 2,758 at-risk students; seven early childhood care centers that serve 607 students in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten; and nine selective schools that serve 8,394 academically or artistically gifted students. Charter Schools in Milwaukee In Milwaukee, MPS, the City, UWM, and the Milwaukee Area Technical College (MATC) are all authorized by state law to provide school charters to nonprofit corporations (although MATC has not authorized any to date). Both the number of charter schools and their enrollment have been expanding in recent years. There are no limits to the number of charter schools or students in Milwaukee, but MPS may not contract for educational services for more than eight percent of the district s total enrollment. As public schools, charter schools must provide performance data to the families of prospective students and are held accountable for their performance. Since 2005, MPS has closed 21 charter schools eight at the end of the school year alone. Charter school operators and authorizers are working to ensure that charters are providing not only an alternative education for Milwaukee families, but schools that meet academic standards. MPS-Authorized Charter Schools MPS charter schools have flexibility in hiring, schedules, and developing their curricula. They can also set their own guidelines for transportation and enroll students from all parts of the city. MPS authorizes two types of charter schools: instrumentality charter schools, in which leadership teams of MPS traditional schools apply to receive greater freedom in designing the school s curriculum, and non-instrumentality charter schools, which are operated by independent nonprofit organizations. Thirty MPS instrumentality charter schools enroll 9,064 students at all grade levels, 10.2 percent of the total public and charter student population. Thirteen non-instrumentality charter schools enroll 3,008 students, three percent of the student population. Fourteen instrumentality charter schools (seven elementary and seven high schools) have attendance areas, although like other MPS public schools, a small percentage of students attend from within boundaries. Only three MPS charter schools, none with attendance areas, enroll more than 50 percent of students who reside in the zip code where the school is located. Two non-instrumentality charter schools, Bruce Guadalupe Middle School and Veritas High School, were no longer authorized by MPS after the school year. These schools enrolled 782 and 184 students, respectively. However, because this is a point-in-time analysis, the enrollment and performance data for these schools were included with the other MPS non-instrumentality charter schools for this report.

11 9 Table 1: Enrollment and Capacity of Public Schools in Milwaukee by School Type Number of Schools Total Capacity Total Enrollment Traditional ,873 59,822 MPS Instrumentality Charter 30 9,680 9,064 MPS Non-Instrumentality Charter* 13 3,008 3,008 Non-MPS Charter 15 5,011 5,011 MPS Selective 9 8,303 8,394 Other MPS Schools 38 3,636 3,364 Total Enrollment ,511 88,663 *Table includes two charter schools, Bruce Guadalupe Middle School and Veritas High School, that were no longer authorized by MPS after the school year. See the MPS Authorized Charter Schools section for more information. Non-MPS Authorized Charter Schools There are 15 charter schools operating in Milwaukee that are not authorized by MPS. Five are authorized by the City and ten are authorized by the UWM. These schools have different educational regulations and are more flexible in their curricula than traditional public schools. They enroll 5,011 students, 5.7 percent of Milwaukee s total student enrollment. Private Schools in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program The establishment in 1990 of the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP), the first school voucher program in the nation, placed Milwaukee at the forefront of education reform and the developing school choice movement. The initial program paid for several hundred low-income children to attend secular private schools. After an evaluation of the first five years, during which participation grew to several thousand children, Wisconsin s legislature voted to expand the program to allow parochial schools to participate and to make the program available for up to 15 percent of the students enrolled in MPS. Litigation on the program s constitutionality delayed this expansion another three years. Now, twelve years later, 126 private schools participate in MPCP, enrolling almost 20,000 low-income students at an annual cost of $12 million. In , the 126 private schools in the program reported a total enrollment of 27,510. Of these, 19,947, or 72.5 percent, were voucher students. Voucher student enrollment ranged from two to 100 percent of the participating schools enrollment. Until this year, private schools participating in MPCP were not required to be accredited (only to seek accreditation), nor were they required to use the state s standardized tests and to report these scores to the public. They do report test scores to the School Choice Demonstration Project, the program s independent evaluator. Several schools failed to comply with these minimum requirements and were removed from the program. However, for 12 years it has not been possible for stakeholders or MPS to evaluate the performance of schools participating in MPCP in the context of the entire district. In 2009, Wisconsin s legislature amended MPCP. In the fall of 2010, participating schools must administer the Wisconsin Knowledge Concepts Examination (WKCE) to all 4th, 8th, and 10th graders and report results to the Department of Public Instruction (DPI) as well as the School Choice Demonstration Project. In addition, participating schools must establish and communicate to parents academic standards for advancement and graduation. Administrators, teachers, and teacher s aides will have to meet the same minimum requirements as their counterparts in public school districts.

12 10 Definition of Terms Type of School MPCP School A private school that participates in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program. MPS Charter A charter school that is authorized by MPS. These schools include instrumentality charters, which are operated by MPS and have union regulations for teachers, and non-instrumentality charters, which are operated by nonprofit organizations. Non-MPS Charter A charter school that is not authorized by MPS. These schools can be authorized by the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, the City of Milwaukee, or the Milwaukee Area Technical College. Selective School A school that has academic or audition-based requirements for entrance. Unless a school has these specific requirements, it is non-selective. Traditional School An MPS school whose enrollment is open to all children. Traditional neighborhood schools have attendance boundaries, whereas traditional citywide schools do not have boundaries. School Performance Levels Tier I Schools Tier I public and charter schools meet or exceed the state standard on both the WKCE math and reading exams. Tier I MPCP schools received a rating of High in both subjects by Great Schools. Tier II Schools Tier II schools perform between 75 and 100 percent of the state standard on both of the WKCE exams. Tier II MPCP schools received a rating of at least Middle in both subjects by Great Schools. Metrics Capacity The number of students a program or building is designed to serve. For most charter schools enrollment serves as a proxy for capacity. Citywide Capacity The sum of the total number of seats in all public, charter, and MPCP Tier I and Tier II schools. Current Enrollment The number of students enrolled in public and charter schools. Potential Enrollment The total number of school-age children. Regional Indicator An indicator calculated using the service level and service gap for a region created by a zip code and the attendance areas of the Tier I and Tier II schools that overlap it. School Utilization For each school, the ratio of school enrollment to the school capacity. Excess capacity refers to a school whose enrollment is less than its capacity. Service Gap The total number of students that cannot be served by a Tier I or Tier II school in a given geographic unit of analysis. Service Level The proportion or percentage of potential and current enrollment that can be served by the Tier I and Tier II capacity located in the geographic unit of analysis. Tier I and Tier II Capacity The number of seats in a school that meets or exceeds 75 percent of the state standard on the WKCE exams. WKCE Exam Wisconsin Knowledge and Concepts Exam, a standardized exam given to students in public schools throughout Wisconsin in grades 3 through 8 and grade 10. Programs Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP) A program established by the Wisconsin state legislature in 1990 that provides vouchers for low-income students to attend private schools. Voucher Student A student who receives a voucher through the MPCP program to attend a private school.

13 Methodology 11 The primary goals of this needs assessment are to understand the location and distribution of performing schools as measured by Wisconsin state standards, and to set geographic priorities for new performing schools. The need determined by the analysis is relative because the method takes into account not only the demand (i.e., the number of school-age children) and the supply (i.e., the number of seats in schools that perform at state standards), but also information on location and enrollment. This report represents a point-in-time analysis of the school-age population, school performance and school enrollment in Milwaukee during the school year. It relies on the following data from the school year: School-age population Total school enrollment School enrollment data by zip code School performance School capacity School location School attendance area Public and MPS-authorized charter school enrollment and performance data was provided by MPS. Non-MPS charter data was provided by charter school authorizers, UWM and the City. MPCP enrollment as well as some charter performance information was provided by DPI and the Wisconsin Information Network for Successful Schools (WINSS). The performance data for the MPCP schools was from the Great Schools Milwaukee School Chooser School-age population figures were based upon 2009 estimates compiled by ESRI, Inc. Study Geography This report determines where there is the greatest need for performing schools by examining school performance and the number of school-age children at the zip code level, rather than the individual school. Several smaller zip codes were combined to create areas that were comparable to other, larger zip codes, and the geographic analysis is based on 20 zip code areas Zip code includes a small portion of zip code that falls within MPS boundaries. Zip code includes small portions of zip codes and that fall within MPS boundaries. Map 1 depicts the 20 zip code areas used in the analysis. Determining Milwaukee s Current and Potential Enrollment Current Enrollment in a zip code area is the number of students residing in that zip code who attend a public or charter school in Milwaukee in grades K4, four-year-old preschool, through 12. Students in grade K3, three-year-old preschool, are excluded because K3 seats are limited and not all schools include a K3 classroom, whereas the majority include K4. Students who attend the four non-mps authorized charter schools that did not provide enrollment data by zip code are assigned to the zip code in which the school is located. The analysis divides the demographic data of school-age children into Milwaukee s 20 zip code areas. The census block groups that comprise the MPS district were coded to reflect their zip code. Fifty block groups overlap into more than one zip code area. To ensure the most accurate population estimates for each zip code area, the demographic data in these block groups are apportioned according to the estimated share of residential blocks falling in each area. This approach accounts for unpopulated commercial and industrial blocks. The population of school-age children (4-17 years old) in each zip code area represents the Potential Enrollment, or potential demand for performing schools, in the analysis. Measuring Capacity in the Analysis Using School Performance Data IFF s methodology differentiates the schools in each zip code based on their performance. In , the Wisconsin state standard on the WKCE was 74 percent of a school s students scoring proficient or advanced in Reading and 58 percent scoring proficient or advanced in Math. If a school meets this state standard, IFF considers it as performing. However, since so few schools met the Wisconsin state standard, IFF had to use different criteria to distinguish between schools that comprise the capacity in the analysis against which enrollment is compared. For purposes of this analysis, IFF categorized schools into Tier I and Tier II, using a school s aggregate score on the WKCE in Reading and Math. Tier I are schools at

14 12 Table 2: Tier I and Tier II Criteria Percent of Percent Percent State Proficient Proficient Standard or Above on or Above on WKCE: WKCE: Math Reading Tier I 100% or above 58% 74% State Standard Tier II % of 43.5% 55.5% State Standard the Wisconsin state standard or above. Tier II are schools that perform between 75 and 100 percent of the state standard. Non-performing schools perform below 75 percent of the state standard in either Reading or Math. The first step in the study methodology is to distinguish between the capacity or the number of seats in Tier I and Tier II schools and all other public schools. The capacity in Tier I and Tier II schools is compared to the number of school-age children citywide and in each zip code and is used to analyze and rank by zip code where better performing schools are needed. Eight public and charter schools in the analysis do not have performance data for the academic year and are not included. 3 Forty-seven non-traditional MPS schools are excluded from the analysis because their enrollment is not open to all students. There are three selective high schools that meet the criteria for Tier I and Tier II capacity. For purposes of the analysis, these schools are included in the report s citywide numbers, but not the zip code analysis. Of the 126 MPCP schools, only 23 reported their test scores in the Great Schools Milwaukee School Chooser Students in these schools took 3. Of the non-reporting schools, six do not have this data because they only enrolled students in grades for which the WKCE is not administered, grades 3 through 8 and grade 10. These schools include two traditional schools, three MPS charters, and one non-mps charter. Two additional traditional schools do not have standardized exam scores included in the data provided by MPS, although enrollment encompassed WKCE testing grades. 4. More information is available on Great School s methodology at either the WKCE, TerraNova, or Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS). Great Schools used statistical formulas to compare the TerraNova and ITBS tests against the WKCE and compared scores across all school types. 4 Great Schools then assigned each school a rating of High (10 points below WKCE state average and above), Middle (11-30 points below WKCE state average), or Low (more than 30 points below WKCE state average) in both Reading and Math. Schools that received ratings of High in both subjects are considered Tier I. Schools that received Middle in both subjects are considered part of Tier II. Determining Tier I and Tier II Capacity The Tier I and Tier II capacity of each zip code area is the total number of seats in the schools that met the criteria. Many MPS traditional schools have attendance areas that overlap two or more zip code areas. The percent of students that reside in a given attendance area is determined for each zip code, and the Tier I and Tier II capacity of the schools is then apportioned according to each zip code area. The capacity in Tier I and Tier II schools that did not have attendance areas, charters, traditional citywide schools, and reporting MPCP schools, is assigned to the zip code area in which a school is located. Assessing the Need for Performing Schools The needs assessment compares Tier I and Tier II capacity, with the two measures of demand: Current Enrollment (the number of students enrolled in public and charter schools grades K4 12) and Potential Enrollment (the number of all school-age children). Current Enrollment is compared with Tier I and Tier II capacity in public and charter schools only. Potential Enrollment is compared with Tier I and Tier II capacity in public, charter, and reporting MPCP schools. Using the Tier I and Tier II capacity and enrollment numbers, two measures, service level and service gap, are calculated to gauge both the relative and absolute need for better performing schools in Milwaukee. Service level is the percent of students who can be served by the capacity in Tier I, Tier II, or both schools. It is calculated by the total seats in Tier I and Tier II available to children in a zip code

15 Map 1: Milwaukee Study Geography 13 Zip Code Boundary

16 14 divided by the total number of students who reside in the zip code. Service gap is the total number of students who cannot be served by existing capacity in Tier I, Tier II, or both. It is calculated by the total number of students who live in the zip code less the number of Tier I and Tier II seats. Service level is a relative or scaled measure of need, whereas service gap is an absolute measure of need. Calculating Zip Code Service Levels and Service Gaps For Milwaukee and each of its zip code areas, service levels and service gaps are calculated based on Tier I and Tier II capacity relative to current demand as measured by both Current Enrollment and Potential Enrollment. Each of the zip code areas is then ranked from 1 20 for both the Current Enrollment service level and service gap and the Potential Enrollment service level and service gap. All zip code areas with a zero percent service level receive a rank of one. Indicators for Current Enrollment and Potential Enrollment are created for each zip code area by calculating the weighted average using the weights listed in Table 3 for each zip code area s service level and service gap rank. Zip code areas are then ranked from 1 20 for both Current Enrollment and Potential Enrollment based on these indicators. The area ranked number one corresponds to the highest relative need. Regional Indicator IFF also calculates a Regional Indicator as part of the zip code analysis. The methodology s geographic focus seeks to aggregate and analyze data differently from standard MPS analysis. As a result, it is necessary to account for the overlap between school attendance areas and the zip code areas. Generally, this is only necessary for elementary schools because high school students are more likely to travel to attend school, and because high school attendance areas are larger and often encompass more than one zip code. Additionally, MPS high school attendance areas are used mostly for transportation purposes. A region for each zip code area is created by identifying all the elementary school attendance areas that overlap with the zip code boundaries. All public and charter school students residing in those attendance areas are counted in the Regional Indicator s demand estimate, and all elementary public and charter schools in the Tier I and Tier II capacity whose attendance areas fall in the zip code are included in the Regional Indicator s supply. In addition to schools with attendance areas, citywide public and charter schools at Tier I and Tier II are added to the supply. Supply and demand are once again compared using the service level and service gap measures. These measures are then combined into a Regional Indicator ranking. Private schools participating in MPCP are not included in the regional analysis. A rank of one represents the highest level of regional need for better performing schools. Ranking the Need for Performing Schools The final step in the analysis combines the three indicators listed above Current Enrollment, Potential Enrollment, and Regional Indicator into a weighted average. Each of Milwaukee s zip code areas receives a rank from 1 20 for each of the indicators included in the analysis. Using the weights listed in Table 4, a composite weighted average is calculated for each zip code area. The greatest weight is given to the comparison between Tier I and Tier II capacity in the zip code area with Potential Enrollment. The composite scores are ranked from 1 20 to determine each zone s final rank of overall need. Table 3: Weights for Calculating Current, Potential, and Regional Indicators Table 4: Indicator Weights for Final Ranking of Zip Codes Rank Weight Rank Weight Service Level 30% Service Gap 70% Current Enrollment 30% Potential Enrollment 50% Regional Indicator 20%

17 Research Results 15 Tier I and Tier II Schools and Capacity In , there were 73 public and charter schools and another 19 private schools participating in MPCP that qualified as Tier I and Tier II. These 92 schools comprise the total citywide Tier I and Tier II capacity of 41,860 seats, including 4,037 seats in reporting MPCP schools, of which 2,515 were filled by voucher students. Approximately half of the Tier I and Tier II capacity is in neighborhood schools, which also have the highest number of schools and enrollment. Five zip codes only have Tier I and Tier II capacity in neighborhood schools. Most Tier I and Tier II capacity is at the elementary level. There are only 184 Tier I and Tier II seats in public and charter high schools, and an additional 61 seats in MPCP at the high school level. Traditional MPS Schools Fifty-three traditional public schools 39 neighborhood and 14 citywide are included in the Tier I and Tier II capacity. These schools comprised 39.3 percent of all neighborhood schools and 60.9 percent of all citywide schools. Of the 39 neighborhood schools, seven are Tier I and 32 are Tier II. Of the 14 citywide schools, eight are Tier I and six are Tier II. The total Tier I and Tier II capacity for neighborhood schools is 22,377 out of a total of 67,169 available seats in this type of school (33.3 percent), while citywide schools have 7,118 Tier I and Tier II seats out of a total capacity of 12,704 (56 percent). MPS-Authorized Charter Schools Fifteen of the 44 MPS-authorized charter schools are Tier I and Tier II. These 15 schools have a total Tier I and Tier II capacity of 6,385 seats, 52.8 percent of the 12,072 seats in these 44 schools. Six schools are Tier I and another nine are Tier II. Non-MPS Authorized Charters Five charter schools out of the 15 authorized by UWM or the City are Tier I and Tier II. The Tier I and Tier II capacity in these schools is 1,824 seats, 36.4 percent of the 5,011 seats in these 15 schools. Of these five schools, two are Tier I and three are Tier II. Table 5 summarizes Tier I and Tier II capacity by school type. Milwaukee Parental Choice Program Nineteen of the 23 MPCP schools for which data is available are Tier I or Tier II schools. In fact, 15 are Tier I, whereas only four are Tier II. The 23 reporting schools enroll a total of 4,877 students, of which 3,326 are voucher students. Figure 3 delineates the total voucher enrollment in all of the MPCP schools based on whether the schools reported and whether they meet Tier I and Tier II criteria. It shows that 75.6 percent of these voucher students are enrolled in a Tier I or Tier II school. However, performance data is only available for 16.7 percent of all voucher students in the program. Table 5: Zip Code Analysis: Tier I and Tier II Capacity by School Type Total Tier I Total Percent Tier I Tier I Tier II Tier II Percent Enrollment and Seats in of All Schools Schools Schools Schools of All Tier II Tier I Students in Capacity Capacity Schools Schools and Tier I and by by That Are Tier II Tier II School School Tier I Schools Schools Type Type or Tier II Traditional 59, , % 15 6, , % MPS Instrumentality Charter 9, , % 5 1, , % MPS Non-Instrumentality Charter* 3, , % , % Non-MPS Charter 5, , % , % Reporting MPCP** 4, , % 15 3, % Total 81, , % 38 13, , % *Table includes two charter schools, Bruce Guadalupe Middle School and Veritas High School, that were no longer authorized by MPS after the school year. See the MPS Authorized Charter Schools section for more information. **In reporting MPCP schools, 3,326 of the 4,037 students enrolled in Tier I and II schools are voucher students.

18 16 Map 2: Tier I and Tier II Schools School Types Traditional Charter Reporting MPCP Elementary School High School Milwaukee Zip Code Boundary

19 17 Figure 3 MPCP Voucher Student Enrollment 2, ,621 (103 Schools) Voucher Students in Non-Reporting Schools Reporting Schools: Tier I Reporting Schools: Tier II Reporting Schools: Non-Performing Map 2 shows the distribution of all Tier I and Tier II public and private schools included in the analysis. A map with all Tier I and Tier II as well as the schools performing below 75 percent of state standard in can be found in Appendix A.

20 18 Citywide Results Citywide Analysis of Tier I Schools Public and Charter Schools In Milwaukee, 15.2 percent of public school students can be served by Tier I schools, those schools that perform at the Wisconsin state standard as illustrated by Figure 4. These schools have the capacity to serve a total of 13,431 students; however, 3,800 seats are in selective schools and therefore, not all students are eligible to attend them. Twenty percent or 2,702 of these seats are in charter schools operated by MPS and other nonprofit corporations. Therefore, the city needs 74,383 seats of performing capacity to ensure that all students in the public system have access to a performing school. In addition, most of this capacity is in elementary schools. The only Tier I high school capacity is the 1,902 seats that are part of the city s selective school capacity. MPCP Schools The bottom bar in Figure 4 indicates how much Tier I capacity the reporting MPCP schools contribute to the entire system of public and private schools. There are an additional 3,363 Tier I seats in these schools. As reported earlier, only 2,052 of these are voucher students. Eighty-three percent of the MPCP capacity is in Tier I. Moreover, as with the public schools, almost all the MPCP seats are in elementary schools. Reporting private schools contribute fewer than 100 seats of high school capacity to the system. Citywide Capacity for All School-Age Children The combined public and private capacity can serve 13.4 percent, less than one-fifth, of school-age children. There is a total of almost 17,000 seats of capacity in Milwaukee s Tier I schools. Because data is only available for 19 MPCP schools with 3,363 seats of Tier I capacity, the additional 24,417 seats in non-reporting private schools are added to Milwaukee s potential demand and therefore, to the service gap. The city needs a maximum of 108,451 performing seats with all the seats in the non-reporting schools. However, when the service gap is reduced by those seats, it decreases to 84,304. Therefore, the need for Tier I capacity ranges between a minimum of 84,000 seats and a maximum of 109,000 seats in Milwaukee. Citywide Analysis of Tier I and Tier II Schools For purposes of this analysis, as described in the methodology, Tier I capacity is combined with Tier II capacity in schools that meet at least 75 percent of the Wisconsin state standard. The inclusion of Tier II capacity in 50 public schools and four MPCP schools significantly expands the number of seats included in the analysis, thereby decreasing the reported service gaps as illustrated in Figure 4. Public and Charter Schools Tier II non-selective and selective public schools add significant capacity to the system of almost 29,000 seats. However, even with the addition of these seats, Tier I and Tier II schools can serve only about half of all public school students. There are almost three times as many seats in Tier II non-selective public schools as in Tier I. There are also an additional 1,338 seats in Tier II selective schools. Once again, high school capacity is only available in selective schools. MPCP Schools The majority of MPCP schools for which data is available are Tier I schools. In fact, there are only 674 seats of capacity in Tier II MPCP schools and, again, these are at the elementary school level. They reduce the gap slightly, but provide seats for less than one percent of school-age children.

21 19 Figure 4. Citywide Tier I Seats by School Type and Service Gap Compared to Current and Potential Enrollment 15.2% Tier I Service Level ,923 1,914 3,806 Current Enrollment 87,814 MPS Traditional MPS Charter Non-MPS Charter MPS Selective and Partnership MPCP Seats Service Gap 6,923 1, ,806 3, ,451 74, % Tier I Service Level 0 Potential Enrollment 125,245 Citywide Capacity for All School-Age Children The combined public and private Tier I and Tier II schools can serve a total of 37.5 percent of all school-age children. Therefore, the maximum service gap for school-age children is almost 79,000 seats after Tier II capacity is added. If all of the non-reporting MPCP seats were performing, the service gap decreases to 56,263 seats. In addition, of the total 46,349 seats of citywide capacity in Tier I and Tier II schools, including selective and MPCP, 93.9 percent is in elementary schools. The high school service gap is equal to all the high school-age children, 34,727. In the zip code analysis that follows, IFF chose to include non-reporting schools as part of Milwaukee s potential demand, and these seats are counted in the service gaps although IFF recognizes that some of the non-reporting schools may in fact be performing.

22 20 Zip Code Analysis Results The following analysis examines the need for schools in the 20 zip code areas that comprise the study geography. It uses the data on Tier I and Tier II capacity in public, charter and private schools, school enrollment, and school-age population to rank each of the zip codes according to its overall need. The analysis prioritizes the zip codes that have the greatest need for Tier I and Tier II schools to serve the students residing in that community. In addition, because students have choices among various types of public and private schools throughout the city, this analysis considers the extent to which students travel from the high-need areas identified by the study to Tier I and Tier II schools in other parts of the city. Elementary School Analysis Public and Charter School Tier I and Tier II Elementary School Capacity by Zip Code There are approximately 37,000 seats of elementary school capacity, grades K 8, in Tier I and Tier II public and charter schools. As Map 2 illustrates, Tier I and Tier II public and charter elementary schools are located in all but one of Milwaukee s zip code areas. However, when the distribution of Tier I and Tier II capacity is examined by zip code as on Map 3, it becomes clear that these seats are not distributed evenly. The findings regarding elementary capacity are: Zip code 53206, west of I-43 and south of Capitol, has no Tier I or Tier II capacity, and zip codes and 53209, with only 36 and 119 Tier I and Tier II seats respectively, effectively have no performing capacity. The five zip codes south of I-94 (53204, 53215, 53221, , and 53207) have significantly more Tier I and Tier II capacity than the 15 northern zip codes. The exception on the north side is zip code 53218, which has almost 2,700 seats of Tier I and Tier II capacity. Four of the five south side zip code areas have between 3,500 and 5,000 Tier I and Tier II capacity, two to two-and-a-half times as much capacity as the other areas of the city. The only exception is zip code 53221, which has fewer, but still many, seats of Tier I and Tier II capacity, 2,543. The five zip code areas in central Milwaukee, south of Congress and north of I-94, have several thousand seats of Tier I and Tier II capacity each. These include , 53205, 53208, 53210, and

23 Map 3: Public and Charter Elementary School Tier I and Tier II Capacity by Zip Code Area 21 Elementary School Tier I and Tier II Capacity ,500 1,501 3,000 >3,000 Zip Code Boundary

24 22 Service Levels and Service Gaps On Map 4 public and charter school Tier I and Tier II capacity is compared against Current Enrollment, the number of public school students. It provides a picture of the need for Tier I and Tier II seats among children in public schools. The number in each zip code area is the service gap, the total number of students residing there that cannot be served by Tier I or Tier II schools. Numbers in parentheses indicate that there are more Tier I and Tier II seats in a zip code area than there are students residing there. Additional elementary school findings are: In most of the zip codes north of North Avenue, fewer than 50 percent of children can enroll in a Tier I or Tier II school. There are between 2,600 and 4,300 students in each of the four zip codes in the center of the north side, 53206, 53209, 53210, and that do not have access to a seat in a school at 75 percent of the state standard. An additional 2,500 seats are needed in the far northwest corner of the city, zip code 53224, where there is almost no Tier I or Tier II capacity. The highest concentration of Tier I and Tier II seats is located in the five zip codes within the densely populated central area of Milwaukee, between Morgan and North and west of the Milwaukee River (53204, 53215, 53205, 53210, and ). Service levels in these five zip codes range from 50 percent to 160 percent of students. Despite higher service levels, several of these central area zip codes, and 53215, also have significant service gaps, with a need for approximately 2,300 and 3,800 elementary seats each respectively. In four other zip code areas, including downtown, there is a surplus of Tier I and Tier II seats in elementary schools. These include , , 53221, and High School Results Public and Charter High School Tier I and Tier II Capacity, Service Levels, and Service Gaps Milwaukee has no non-selective Tier I high schools, and only one high school is Tier II, serving fewer than 200 students. Therefore, in effect all public high school students need a seat in a high school that performs at state standard. Comparing the limited Tier I and Tier II capacity in Milwaukee s high schools with the public school enrollment yields 19 out of 20 zip code areas with a service level of zero. Veritas High School, a charter school, provides 184 seats of Tier II capacity in zip code 53215, giving it a 6.6 percent service level. Map 5 shows the distribution of the need for Tier I seats for all high school-age children, as measured by the service gap in each of the zip code areas. As noted above, the only zip code whose gap is not equal to its entire current high school enrollment is where Veritas High school serves 184 children.

25 Map 4: Elementary School Service Level and Service Gap by Zip Code Based on Public and Charter Tier I and Tier II Seats 23 Service Level Range 0% 25% 26% 50% 51% 75% >75% Zip Code Boundary

26 24 Map 5 illustrates the number of seats needed for high school on both the north and south sides of the City. Findings include: Sixty percent of Milwaukee s zip codes (12 of 20) need at least 850 seats of performing high school capacity to meet the needs of public high school students residing in those areas. The greatest need for high school seats is in four of the zip codes on both the north and south sides that also have a high need for elementary school seats in Tier I and Tier II schools. These include 53218, 53209, 53204, and On the north side, zip codes and need 2,675 and 2,108 seats respectively. There is an equally great need on the south side in zip codes and 53215, where one of the only Tier II high schools is located. These areas need 2,020 seats and 2,598 high school seats. MPS Selective High Schools There are two selective high schools that perform at the Wisconsin state standard, Reagan High School and King High School. In addition, the Milwaukee School of Languages, which is a combined middle and high school, meets Tier II criteria. These three high schools enrolled over 2,700 students in the academic school year, which is equal to 11 percent of the students enrolled in public and charter high schools, or 8 percent of all high schoolage children in Milwaukee. Examining enrollment patterns in the selective schools finds that: King High School, which is a citywide school on the north side with 1,503 students, draws the majority of its students from zip code 53209, where it is located, and the contiguous or proximate zip codes 53218, 53216, and Reagan High School, which is a selective school designed to serve students on the south side in and the proximate zip codes, draws 75 percent of its students from that area. Milwaukee School of Languages, which is located at the western edge of the city, draws most of its students from the north side of Milwaukee. Fewer than 100 students attend the school from the south side. Zip Code Analysis with Reporting MPCP Schools Location of Tier I and Tier II Reporting MPCP Schools The following analysis uses the limited publicly available data on the performance of private schools in MPCP. As described earlier, this analysis only considers the 23 schools that report their test scores to Great Schools. These schools enroll approximately 17 percent of the students in MPCP. Four of these schools are not performing. Fifteen of these schools are Tier I and are located in 12 different zip codes, largely in central and southern Milwaukee. A large number of Tier I seats, 620, are in zip code 53209, where there is otherwise very little Tier I and Tier II capacity. Of the 620, only 21 are in high schools. Another 790 seats of Tier I and Tier II capacity are located in 53221, an area with a relatively high number of Tier I and Tier II public schools. Only 40 of these seats are in high schools. When the data from MPCP schools is incorporated into the zip code analysis, the capacity is compared against Potential Enrollment. Tier I and Tier II capacity is attributed to the zip code where the school is located. It is summed with the Tier I and Tier II seats in public and charter schools to calculate the total Tier I and Tier II capacity located in each zip code. (See Appendix for all MPCP seats by zip code.)