Training & Education Industry

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1 Training & Education Industry Environment Scan 2015

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3 Predicting change Contents 1. Executive summary 2 2. Industry intelligence 6 3. Identified workforce development needs Current impact of training packages Future directions 38 Appendix A - Methodology and bibliography 42 Appendix B - Training and Education Occupations in demand 48 Appendix C - NCVER data 50 The Environment Scan Context, purpose & audience Continuing advances in technology and ongoing pressure on productivity are building the demand for creative and innovation skills with which workforces can use Big Data, engage with complex systems and focus on customers. With these skills Australian industry can better respond to the challenges of operating in a global marketplace. As industries continue to evolve, converge or relocate, and as new job roles emerge and others become obsolete, developed economies are looking to early warning systems to detect the onset of economic and industry trends. The Environment Scans or Escans undertaken annually by Industry Skills Councils report these trends and assist governments and industry to shape responsive vocational training systems. Specifically, Innovation and Business Skills Australia s (IBSA) Escan identifies the factors currently having impact on the skill needs of the workforces of its six industries and considers how well the national training system, its products and services, and industry itself are responding. National, real time industry intelligence is what sets the Escans apart from other reports on the national training system. The Escans capture data and information from IBSA s ongoing visits and conversations with key industry stakeholders, regulators and, critically, the people doing the jobs across the industries and who experience firsthand the impact of change. It also draws on a range of topical sources such as the latest industry, enterprise and government research, and international developments. The Escan methodology can be found at Appendix B. The Escan s formal audience is the Department of Education and Training both to contribute to industry skills needs advice and also as evidence to support endorsement of training package upgrades. The relevance of the Escan however extends far beyond and continues to be used extensively by state and territory governments, industry bodies, enterprises and many other stakeholders involved in skills and workforce development. As a document limited in size, the Escan does not seek to capture every issue within each industry, rather it is a snapshot of a continually developing picture that is intended to alert and inform a wide audience and enhance their capacity to act. The Escans are part of Industry Skills Councils broader role in gathering industry intelligence and undertaking high quality analysis of the skills needs and profile of current and future industry workforces. Escan 2015 has been produced with the assistance of funding provided by the Australian Government through the Department of Education and Training. Training & Education Industry i

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5 CHAPTER 1 Executive summary

6 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 CHAPTER 1 Executive summary The Training and Education Industry has been and is undergoing change principally affected by two factors: changes in funding models and the comprehensive introduction of demand driven systems. Revenue was expected to reach $104.7 billion in , was confirmed at $110.9 billion in October and is forecast to reach $136.7 billion by 2018/19. 2 The Education and Training industry provides education services from preschools and schools, through to vocational education and training (VET) and higher education. The demographics provided in this Escan address the full industry however Chapter 3 onwards concentrates on VET sector as IBSA s key area of responsibility. 12 Over the five years through to , industry revenue was forecast to grow by an annual rate of 1.9 percent to reach $9.6 billion. 3 However while revenue may have been on the rise, in 2013, compared with 2012, the number of students enrolled in the public vocational education and training (VET) system decreased by 3.4 percent to 1.9 million and total subject enrolments decreased by 3.9 percent, from 16.8 million to 16.2 million. 1 IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P, Education and Training in Australia, October IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P, Education and Training in Australia, April IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P8101, Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Australia, The VET sector is being affected by the following trends: rising unemployment increasing demand for upskilling and reskilling of previously employed VET workers and new entrants changes in funding models and programs affecting income streams, governance and operations and asset utilisation demand for improved quality and embracing new training package standards increasing competition with higher education providers and schools offering VET qualifications rising international student numbers as a result of the lower value of the Australian dollar online and mature age education opportunities for those seeking professional development, and higher level VET qualifications becoming more popular and lower level qualifications losing relevance. The Business Council of Australia noted that VET is a crucial piece of the national armour needed to protect Australia s economic competitiveness and social cohesion. 4 The importance of VET to the Australian economy cannot be underestimated. For the VET sector workforce development issues centre on: changes required by providers, and their ageing workforce, to adapting to a risk based regulatory environment, especially the preretirement component of the workforce 4 Business Council of Australia, June 2014, Jennifer Westacott, Swinburne University 2014 Chancellor s Lecture : Redefining Vocational Learning in the Global Economy 2 Chapter 1 Executive summary

7 Predicting change being able to respond to new funding arrangements and policies effecting traditional income streams maintaining standards to protect and provide confidence in the sector, and making the best use of the stronger and increasingly pervasive presence of technology to design, deliver and assess skills and knowledge. This Escan also reports on the use and continuous improvement of the Foundation Skills Training Package. This package supports learning in what have been known as employability skills as well as language, literacy and numeracy particularly for those who have barriers to workforce participation. These skills are also critical for future learning. Future directions outlined in Chapter 5 address both the Training and Education and Foundation Skills Training Packages; that chapter considers the workforce development issues as well as: increasing the utilisation of the Foundations Skills Training Package across all industries, and ensuring the TAE Training and Education Training Package is effective as the primary influencer on the quality of VET in Australia. Training & Education Industry 3

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9 CHAPTER 2 Industry intelligence

10 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 CHAPTER 2 Industry intelligence THE TRAINING AND EDUCATION INDUSTRY The introduction of demand driven systems and related changes in funding models is the single largest change in the Training and Education Industry. Revenue reached $110.9 billion in and is expected to be $136.7 billion by External drivers having impact on this industry include: the population aged between five and 18 which influences demand for government and private schools and has a flow on effect to post secondary school public funding for primary and secondary education public funding for tertiary education as public funding declines, enrolments are expected to follow secondary school retention rates, which when on the rise lead to increases in demand on secondary school resources and result in more students moving onto higher education, and the value of the Australian dollar which effects international enrolments to Australian institutes. 5 IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P, Education and Training in Australia, April International students studying and living in Australia contributed $15.6 billion to the Australian economy in 2013, a 3.8 percent increase from 2012 ($14.5 billion). This rise is suggested to have been the result of Australia being a more attractive destination with the drop in the value of the Australian dollar. Education related travel services are Australia s largest services export ahead of other personal travel services ($13.1 billion) and professional and management consulting services ($4.6 billion), 6 making this industry a vital part of the Australian economy. Figure 1 shows that over the four year period, preschool education, government school education and private school education increased, VET remained steady, and the language and other education, and university and other higher education sectors have decreased. Vocational training and education sector VET enables students to gain qualifications for all types of employment, and specifically, skills for the workplace. VET is provided through the eight state and territory governments and the Australian 6 Australian Education International, (2013) Research Snapshot Export income to Australia from international education activity in Government, along with enterprise, public and private training providers. These organisations operate to provide nationally consistent training and skills development across Australia. Approximately 4,650 registered training organisations (RTOs) from around the country deliver training and issue qualifications from nationally recognised training packages and state and territory accredited courses. As the sector has evolved over recent decades, particularly into a more open and competitive market, the range of ownership models, delivery modes, course offerings and learner profiles has expanded. Today, there is a diverse range of public and private provider models catering to a wide variety of learners and business opportunities. The provider types include: TAFE publicly-owned providers of VET, accounting for the highest single concentration of student enrolments. There are 58 TAFEs across Australia delivering qualifications across approximately 500 campuses. Private privately operated organisations registered to provide VET, increasing from around 2,500 businesses in 2005 to over 3,000, or by 20 percent, in University comprised of both dual-sector institutions that typically offer higher level VET qualifications such as diplomas and advanced 6 Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

11 Predicting change Figure 1: Training and education market segmentation, Language and other education Vocation education and training Private school education University and other higher education Government school education Preschool education Source: IBISWorld, Industry Report P, Education and Training in Australia, April diplomas, and universities which are RTOs or operate in partnership with an RTO. There are currently 13 universities operating as RTOs. School over 400 providers deliver VET programs and support school students to combine vocational studies within their secondary education curriculum, sometimes including structured work placements, or always in the case of school-based traineeships and apprenticeships. Enterprise the primary operation of the enterprise does not involve training and assessment, rather qualifications are delivered as a company adjunct to serve the specific skill requirements of its own workforce. There are nearly 300 enterprise RTOs. Community not-for-profit organisations that provide training and assessment to meet a social objective, for example in adult learning or the training of marginalised groups about 350 are currently in operation. Industry Association private organisations that provide training and assessment tailored to the requirements of business members and industry learners; there are approximately 200 in operation. Professional Association similar to industry associations, around 30 private organisations deliver VET qualifications specific to the members they represent. Other all other providers that do not fit into the above categories and have been grouped as not elsewhere classified by training.gov.au. 7 The most accurate picture of the sizeable workforce of trainers, teachers, assessors and other VET staff estimated there were around 73,000 TAFE employees and 150,000 employees in other RTOs in The VET sector is crucial to the Australian economy - for the development of the national workforce and as a major export industry. While over the five years 7 Standards for Registered Training Organisations and VET Regulators, (2014) Decisions Regulation Impact Statement for the decision of the COAG Industry and Skills Council 8 Productivity Commission 2011, Vocational Education and Training Workforce, Research Report for A practical definition of the Vocational Education and Training workforce. through to , industry revenue was forecast to grow by an annual rate of 1.9 percent to reach $9.6 billion 9 in 2013, compared with 2012: the number of students enrolled in the public VET system decreased by 3.4 percent to 1.9 million total subject enrolments decreased by 3.9 percent, from 16.8 million to 16.2 million two in every five or 41.1 percent of students studying AQF qualifications were enrolled in a certificate III, followed by certificate IV with 19.8 percent and certificate II with 17.6 percent total hours of delivery decreased by 2.7 percent, from million to million full year training equivalents (FYTEs) decreased by 2.7 percent, from 775,500 to 754,900 South Australia was the only jurisdiction to record a growth in VET activity, with increases in student numbers by 16.3 percent, subject enrolments by 20.5 percent, hours 9 IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P8101, Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Australia, Training & Education Industry 7

12 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 of delivery by 24.7 percent and FYTEs by 24.7 percent. All other jurisdictions reported declines in these activity measures, and the number of students enrolled in national training package qualifications declined by 4.9 percent to 1.4 million. 10 Operating revenues for the public VET system in 2013 were $8,519.1 million, an increase in nominal terms of $116.2 million, or 1.4 percent from Publicly funded training activity was delivered by 2,094 distinct training providers in This included 60 technical and further education (TAFE) institutes, nine other government providers, 423 adult and community education providers and 1,670 other providers. 12 What is not clear is the amount spent on privately funded training details of the type of fee for service training, the numbers being trained and where and how. Reforms 13 While the VET sector has significant strength and has been shaped by various reforms, concerns prevail around: the responsiveness of the system to the needs of industry and employers incentives distorting actual industry skills needs the complexity of the system inconsistent quality, and unnecessary regulatory burden and red tape. A VET Reform Taskforce has been established to look at ways to address 10 NCVER 2014, Australian vocational education and training statistics: financial information 2013, NCVER, Adelaide. 11 NCVER 2014, Australian vocational education and training statistics: financial information 2013, NCVER, Adelaide. 12 NCVER 2014, Australian vocational education and training statistic: students and courses 2013 publicly funded training providers, NCVER. Note the sum of providers exceeds the distinct number of providers as in some cases they reported in more than one category. 13 Australian Government (2014), Dept of Industry, VET Reform, accessed August, these concerns and make progress on agreed reforms. During early 2014, the Australian Government sought submissions on VET reform and held nationwide consultations with representatives from industry, business and training providers. The following areas for attention were identified from this process: improving engagement with industry reducing red tape across the sector streamlining the system for students and providers of training, and improving funding mechanisms to better meet the skills needs of business. Progress is evident in the following: In August 2014, the Australian Government announced the establishment of the Vocational Education and Training Advisory Board to provide advice to the Minister for Industry regarding priorities for reform of the VET sector. The COAG Industry and Skills Council agreed to re-examine provider and regulatory standards to ensure they better recognise the different level of risk posed by different providers, and to better align with the Australian Government s plans to remove unnecessary regulation and red tape revised standards were implemented on 1 January The establishment of the Australian Industry and Skills Committee was announced and will provide industry with a formal role in relation to policy directions and decision making in the national training system. In addition, the National Skills Standard Council (NSSC) was dissolved and its ongoing functions delegated to selected senior officials, prior to the Australian Industry and Skills Committee commencing operations. From July 2014, the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) and the Western Australian Training Accreditation Council (TAC) will automatically update a training provider s domestic scope to include any new, equivalent version of a training product (qualifications and units of competency) they are already registered to deliver thus removing the requirement for a training provider to apply for a change of scope, and pay the required fee, to continue to deliver a training product that has been updated and endorsed as equivalent to the superseded product. The Unique Student Identifier (USI) is now in place creating certainty for the sector and with training providers having completed preparations for implementation from 1 January The USI will provide a national online, authenticated record of students training attainment and will serve as a building block for a range of VET reforms. Young workers will be offered new training schemes shaped by employers to meet market demands in an overhaul of the nation s $6.8 billion vocational training system. 14 The $476 million Industry Skills Fund is a key element in the Australian Government s competitiveness agenda and may provide up to 200,000 training places and support services over four years to businesses especially SMEs and will be delivered through a Single Business Service. The next twelve months should see these reforms bedded down, existing programs reshaped and employers exerting far more influence over the VET sector. Quality and assessment Quality remains topical for all VET stakeholders. New regulatory standards for training providers and regulators were approved in September 2014 to underpin a risk based regulatory system. They aim to introduce important changes to strengthen industry engagement, improve the quality of training and reduce the regulatory burden on training providers. The new standards also increase protections for students who want to undertake nationally recognised training 14 The Australian (2014), David Crowe, Bosses get more say on training. September 8, Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

13 Predicting change Figure 2: VET sector versus industry costs, Average costs of all industries in sector ( ) VET sector costs ( Profit Rent Utilities Depreciation Other Wages Purchases Source: IBISWorld Industry Report P8101, Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Australia, 2014 and strengthen the qualifications requirements for the delivery of training and assessment. The new standards came into effect on 1 January 2015 and transition arrangements will apply. As an integral part of implementing the new standards and reflecting its new role, ASQA will: develop and publish a users guide to the new standards undertake a series of information sessions across Australia, which will include detailed information on the new standards and monitor the effect on duration of training among other things consider a code of conduct for education brokers, and publish information and guidance on the process of transition to the new standards. The new standards for RTOs and VET regulators aim to improve quality outcomes from the VET system by: increasing the responsiveness of training providers to the needs of industry focusing on quality training and assessment outcomes, and streamlining the regulatory framework to free up providers from unnecessary red tape and enable regulators to better respond to poor quality providers. 15 The key changes in the standards relate to: quality of trainers and assessors; quality in governance of RTOs; increased industry engagement; and a streamlined regulatory framework. The issue of quality in assessments has implications for the credibility of VET qualifications and the competence of the graduates who hold these qualifications. The Figure 2 shows very low profit margins in the VET sector, with wages the biggest expense largely as a result of face to face teaching and administrative staff requirements. Other costs include marketing, particularly the use of social media, which has risen, along with increased competition. A highly competitive marketplace with slim profits can provide both a fertile environment for excellence to flourish and a haven for a minimalist approach to training and its duration. The reforms are expected to 15 Department of Industry ( 2014), Regulating for Quality, accessed new-standards-training-providers-and-regulators strengthen industry s influence on the VET sector and may reduce the number of poor performers that do not meet industry expectations and requirements. Higher education A total of 1,313,776 domestic and international students enrolled at higher education institutions in 2013, an increase of 4.5 percent from Domestic students totalled 985,374 or 75.0 percent of all students, which was an increase of 5.5 percent over The remaining 328,402 students were overseas student enrolments, an increase of 1.5 percent over the same period. Postgraduate students increased by 5.9 percent to 347,069 while undergraduate students increased by 3.8 percent to 925,791. More than half of all students were female, making up 55.6 percent of enrolments, and over 70.4 percent of students were studying full time. 16 In 2013, students who self identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander were up 9.1 percent to 13,781 and made up 1.2 percent of commencements, up 7.7 percent to 6,275. Increases in Indigenous 16 Australian Department of Education (2013), Summary of the 2013 full year higher education student statistics. Training & Education Industry 9

14 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 Figure 3: International education income activity by sector, 2013 Higher Education Vocation Education Training ELICOS Schools Non-award Other education services Source: Australian Education International, (2013) Research Snapshot Export income to Australia from international education activity in student numbers were recorded across all broad fields of education where students were enrolled, with the largest increase in Information Technology. 17 Growth over the past five years in the university and other higher education industry is expected to result in revenue of $27.2 billion in Higher education providers are developing new courses and methods of delivery to meet the broad needs of the community and industry. A major workforce issue facing the industry is the impending retirement of its ageing workforce and the impact this is expected to place on student to staff ratios. Reform of higher education legislation was reported on 03 September 2014 by the Australian as, for the first time, allowing private higher education providers access to public funded teaching subsidies. The article highlights the likelihood that more than 20 private colleges would qualify 17 Ibid 18 IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P8102, University and other higher education in Australia, 2014 for the teaching subsidies before quality checks could be undertaken by the national regulator, the Tertiary Education and Quality Standards Agency (TEQSA). 19 The Review of the Demand Driven Funding System report by D Kemp and A Norton into higher education in Australia has found that demand has: increased enrolments in higher education by low socio economic status students increased higher education opportunities for people in regional and remote areas and Indigenous Australians allowed online education to expand, and encouraged technology based innovation The Australian 3 September 2014, Higher Education segment, Spotlight on TEQSA over provider quality checks, Bernard Lane. 20 Kemp, D. and Norton, 2014, A Review of the Demand Driven Funding System, report-review-demand-driven-funding-system International education International education remains a major export for Australia, with higher education generating the biggest share of the income, followed by VET. English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) is the first step in an Australian study pathway for two out of every five international students studying in Australia s tertiary sector. 21 Figure 3 shows the break up by sector of international education income. International student numbers increased by 2.3 percent between 2012 and 2013, with the biggest increases in ELICOS and non-award categories, and the biggest decrease in the VET category Table 1 details these 2011 to 2013 trends. The increases in enrolments in the higher education, ELICOS, and non-award sectors is a contrast to the previous year where all sectors experienced a decline in enrolments. This may signal renewed interest in Australia as a 21 Australian Education International,(2014) Research Paper, Study pathways of international students in Australia, 2014/01 10 Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

15 Predicting change Table 1: International student numbers by sector, Sector % growth % growth Higher education 225, , , VET 118, ,234 98, ELICOS 79,911 78,970 93, Non-award 27,716 25,263 28, Schools 20,611 18,447 17, Total 425, , , Source: Australian Education International, (2013) Research Snapshot International student numbers 2013 destination for international students. Students from China make up 29 percent of all international students in Australia, the highest of any nationality, followed by India and the Republic of Korea with 8.8 percent and 4.9 percent respectively. Students from China and Malaysia dominate the higher education numbers, while the majority of students from India are in VET and this group also forms the majority of international students in VET. In 2013, 34,000 international students commenced a VET course of study in Australia for the first time. Of this cohort, 35.6 percent undertook ELICOS studies prior to commencing in VET, 14.9 percent in higher education and 2.3 percent in school. 22 This data demonstrates the importance ELICOS plays as a pathway into VET. Online education Online education continues to grow at a rapid pace with higher education and VET providers increasing their 22 Australian Education International (2014) Research Paper, Study pathways of international students in Australia, 2014/01 delivery flexibility and range of online courses in recognition of the opportunity and demand for workers to upskill. Annualised growth leading up to was forecast at 14.4 percent, with a slower forecast growth predicted of 8.8 percent through to Online education provides a way to expand access to higher education beyond the traditional school leaver and works towards previously set Australian Government targets of 40 percent of years 23 IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report X0008, Online education in Australia, Figure 4: International students by country and sector, 2013 Non-award Schools ELICOS VET Malaysia Vietnam Republic of Korea India China Higher Education Source: Australian Education International, (2013) Research Snapshot International student numbers 2013 Training & Education Industry 11

16 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 Figure 5: Major market segmentation for online education ( ) 9% 30% 18% People aged 17 years and under People aged 18 to 24 years People aged 25 to 44 years 43% People aged 45 years and over Source: IBISWorld, Industry Report X0008, Online education in Australia, olds possessing a Bachelor degree by The market segmentation for online education depicted in Figure 5 shows that the second highest user group of online education is those 45 years and over the likelihood is that this group would be looking to enhance their employability; the third highest user group, those aged years, are likely to be upskilling for career changes, but who are also working around job and family commitments. Schools The school sector of the Training and Education industry is mostly funded by the Australian, state and territory governments, with the latter two providing 85 percent of schools revenue. A new funding structure for government schools, generally known as the Gonski model, was implemented in January The new system is expected to more accurately reflect school populations, the capacity of parents to contribute and more equitable funds distribution. The Australian Government has committed $2.8 billion to the Gonski reforms from to IBISWorld, (2014) Industry Report P8026, Government schools in Australia, Table 2: VET in Schools students by major qualifications, Australia 2012 AQF Qualifications Schoolbased apprentices and trainees Schoolbased apprentices and trainees Schoolbased apprentices and trainees Other VET in Schools students Other VET in Schools students Other VET in Schools students Total VET in Schools students Total VET in Schools students Total VET in Schools students (% of 17,400) (% of 18,500 (% of 23,000 (% of 216,500) (% of 230,900) (% of 229,600) (% of 233,800) (% of 249,400) (% of 252,600) Certificate IV or higher Certificate III Certificate II Certificate I Other % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: NCVER 2013, Australian vocational education and training statistics, VET in Schools 2012 data tables, Australia 12 Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

17 Predicting change The majority of VET in Schools students were male, comprising 54.7 percent of the students in The most popular training packages for VET in Schools students remained constant from 2011, with Tourism, Hospitality and Events having 16.9 percent of the students, followed by Business Services with 10.8 percent and Information and Communications Technology with 9.4 percent. Tourism, Hospitality and Events and Sport, Fitness and Recreation each had 14.6 percent of the school based apprentice and trainee students. 25 VET in Schools numbers continue to increase for both apprentices and trainees and other VET in Schools students. Over 70 percent of school based apprentices and trainees were enrolled in Certificate III and IV qualifications, an increase of just under 10 percent on the 2011 enrolments in these level qualifications. Of the other VET in Schools students, 21.9 percent were enrolled in Certificate III and IV qualifications, an increase of 5.4 percent on NCVER 2013, Australian vocational education and training statistics, VET in Schools 2012 data tables, Australia 26 NCVER 2013, Australian vocational education and training statistics, VET in Schools 2012 data tables, Australia A report integrating 2011 Census data with 2006 VET in Schools data collected by NCVER has provided insights into the various pathways of students participating in VET in Schools programs and their post school destinations and outcomes. Students who were in Year 11 and doing VET in Schools as part of their studies in 2006, and their destinations five years later in 2011, were the focus of the study. Findings included that: for school students who don t go on to higher education, participation in VET in Schools is associated with higher rates of engagement in employment or study five years after studying at school on average, VET in Schools students are slightly less likely to complete Year 12 than other students participation in VET in Schools is associated with increased rates of Year 12 completion for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students VET in Schools leads to better engagement outcomes higher level VET qualifications lead to better engagement outcomes VET in Schools is associated with higher levels of employment for males, trade studies are associated with better employment outcomes many students who study trades end up working in trades more than one in five VET in Schools students complete a Certificate III or IV, and around one in twenty VET in Schools students complete further study in a related field. 27 These findings provide supporting evidence that VET in Schools provides a sound employment pathway. IBSA developed a series of case studies with RTOs on VET in Schools in early The interviews conducted as part of this work clearly showed there were significantly different delivery practices and perceived attitudes towards VET in Schools between jurisdictions and between providers. Funding models across jurisdictions also vary widely and heavily influence decisions on participation in VET in Schools. 27 ABS, Outcomes from Vocational Education and Training in Schools, experimental estimates, Australia , released July Figure 6: Total persons employed in Training and Education Industry by sector, May May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May School Education Tertiary Education Adult, Community and Other Education Preschool Education Education and Training, nfd Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May 2014, SuperTABLE E08 Employed persons by Occupation (ANZSCO occupation) nfd Not further defined Note: Tertiary education includes higher education and VET employed Training & Education Industry 13

18 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 Figure 7: Total persons employed in the Training and Education Industry, by sector by state or territory, May 2014 NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT School Education Tertiary Education Adult, Community and Other Education Preschool Education Education and Training, nfd Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May nfd Not further defined Note: Tertiary education includes higher education and VET employed Figure 8: Total persons employed in Training and Education Industry by sector by gender, May Males Females School Education Tertiary Education Adult, Community and Other Education Preschool Education Education and Training, nfd Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May 2014, nfd Not further defined Note: Tertiary education includes higher education and VET employed 14 Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

19 Predicting change Figure 9: Education profile of the Training and Education workforce Education and Training All Industries Postgraduate qualification Bachelor degree Advanced Diploma and Diploma Certificate III and IV Year Years 10 and Certificate I and II Below Year Share of Employment (%) Source: Dept of Employment, Labour Market Information Portal, Employment by industry and educational attainment, accessed August Preschool education Preschool services are usually available to children aged three to five years, in the year prior to commencing primary school. There are a number of different providers and their roles vary by state. Victoria and New South Wales use community based providers, while in the other states preschool is incorporated into the public education system. Over the 10 years through to , industry value added is estimated to rise by a compound annual rate of 9.6 percent, a strong performance when compared with annualised GDP growth of 2.5 percent. This indicates that preschool education is growing at a faster pace than the overall economy. 28 WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS The Training and Education workforce totalled 896,300 in May 2014 and is projected to be 1,014,700 by November 2018, representing a 13.2 percent increase. 29 Figure 6 shows small increases in the numbers employed in the School Education and Adult, Community and Other Education and Pre-school sectors between May 2013 and May 2014 but numbers of people employed have remained comparatively steady over the period, with the biggest increase in the Adult, Community and Other sector. Figure 7 shows that the distribution of employees in Training and Education aligns with state or territory population size. Figure 8 illustrates the prominent role females play in all sectors, but particularly in the preschool sector and school education, where males represent only 4.9 percent and 25.3 percent of the workforce respectively. The Training and Education workforce is highly educated with over 63.4 percent with Bachelor degrees or higher compared with All Industries with 28.5 percent; see Figure 9 for further detail. The workforce age profile for the Training and Education Industry shows a relatively old workforce, with a median age of 44 years (2012) compared with 40 years for the All Australian workforce. Workers in the Training and Education Industry dominate each age category from 35 years upwards. The workforce has become older over the last ten years, increasing from 14.1 percent aged 55 and over in May 2003 to 22.2 percent in May 2013, compared with All Industries which increased from 12.1 percent aged 55 and over to 17.5 percent for the same period. So, the gap is currently widening with the figure below showing the age range at May Figure 11 shows 62.4 percent of the Training and Education workforce was employed full time, compared with All Industries of 70.1 percent. The Tertiary Education sector has the largest proportion of full time workers. 28 IBISWorld, Industry Report P8010, Preschool education in Australia Industry report, LMIP Industry Trend Data tool(2014) Dept of Employment, Trend Data and Projections, accessed August Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. No , four quarter average. Training & Education Industry 15

20 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 Figure 10: Employed persons by age compared with All Industries (% share of employment), May Training and Education All Industries and over Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. No , four quarter average. Figure 11: Full time employment by sector (percentage share of employment), May 2013 Adult, Community and Other Education Preschool Education Education and Training School Education All Industries Tertiary Education Figure 12: DEEWR projected employment growth by sector, five years to November 2017 Preschool Education Education Support Services Adult, Community and Other Education Tertiary Education School Education Source: DEEWR 2013 Employment Projections to November ,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35, Chapter 2 Industry intelligence

21 Predicting change Industry and workforce outlook Industry outlook - VET industry and workforce Again, the Business Council of Australia considers VET a crucial piece of the national armour needed to protect Australia s economic competitiveness and social cohesion. 31 The role of VET is well recognised and the need for an accessible high quality product is also critical to Australia s growth of new industries. The Training and Education Industry, with a focus on VET, is affected by the following: Rising unemployment demand for VET increases as people seek to increase their skills to enhance their employability. Changes in funding models and programs effects business and workforce planning by VET providers. Government reforms in higher education are creating more places in undergraduate programs and an increasing preference for higher qualifications means VET providers are losing some market share. Increasing competition the demand driven model, for both vocational and higher education, provides fertile ground for an increase in the number of private providers. As jurisdictions prioritise funding to better address their skill requirements, private RTOs are more able to respond and nimbly align the structure of their courses to take advantage of funding shifts. Rising international student numbers will drive enrolment growth and lead to some revenue growth if the value of the Australian dollar remains low. Increased competition in the international student market will require providers to differentiate themselves in the market and make better strategic use of available pathways such as ELICOS. Online and mature age education and upskilling will continue to open new markets and strategic use of online education will benefit providers looking to innovate by utilising new technology to deliver and manage training. The proliferation of free online education is both an opportunity and a threat that needs to be managed by the industry. Trends towards higher level qualifications create opportunities for well articulated pathways and for VET providers to partner with higher education providers. Workforce and employment outlook The expectation of a gradual strengthening of economic growth should, in time, lead to stronger demand for labour. However, with growth expected to be below trend over the next year, the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated before it gradually declines in With extra job seekers likely to be in the labour market for some time, wage growth is anticipated to remain low. 32 Rises in unemployment are expected to effect the VET sector. Figure 12 illustrates the employment prospects in the Training and Education Industry over the five years to November 2017, projected to increase by 64,500 or 7.2 percent. This is in line with the projected growth rate for All Industries of 7.1 percent. Overall, the Education and Training Industry is expected to account for 7.9 percent of Australia s total employment growth over that period. 33 All sectors of the Training and Education Industry, other than preschool education, are projected to record employment growth over the next five years; preschool education is projected to record a reduction by 400. The largest employment gain is projected to be in school education (up by 37,200), followed by tertiary education (16,400). Workforce trends effecting the VET sector include: an ageing, highly qualified workforce with the associated challenges of maintaining industry currency and integrating the use of technology to deliver and assess skills and knowledge development a highly casualised, flexible workforce so providers can nimbly respond to opportunities increasing use of technology to deliver and manage training skill needs associated with innovative use of technology, and demand for upskilling of trainers to meet the needs of the wider community seeking higher levels of qualifications. A list of Occupations in Demand is provided in Appendix B. The list is collated from responses to an industry survey and considered against intelligence presented in this Escan on the industry, employment trends and the workforce. This list contributes to workforce development and planning strategies highlighted in Chapter 3 and also presents a clear relationship to training packages. The occupations and job roles reported as in demand were: Professional instructional designer / adviser / VET curriculum Professional language literacy and numeracy Professional training and development Professional VET elearning RTO manager, and Auditor quality compliance and skills auditor. 31 Business Council of Australia, June 2014, Jennifer Westacott, Swinburne University 2014 Chancellor s Lecture : Redefining Vocational Learning in the Global Economy 32 RBA (2014) Statement on monetary policy, August Source: 2013 DEEWR Employment Projections to November 2017 Training & Education Industry 17

22

23 CHAPTER 3 Identified workforce development needs

24 IBSA Environment Scan 2015 CHAPTER 3 Identified workforce development needs The focus of the remainder of this Training and Education Escan is on the needs and priorities for the VET sector. The other education sectors are covered by other Industry Skills Councils Escans or through other planning processes. MAINTAINING STANDARDS While the Training and Education Industry has been heavily regulated, some operators continue to affect the reputation of the industry, particularly VET, through poor quality service delivery; even those with robust standards and processes can fall short. At a presentation by ASQA 34 it was reported that: most RTOs are not compliant at their initial audit, with only 20 percent fully compliant and 80 percent with at least one non-compliance, and most RTOs are able to achieve compliance after 20 days rectification, with 77 percent fully compliant after rectification and 23 percent still not compliant. 34 Source: Presentation by Chris Robinson, ASQA CEO at ACPET ACCI National Skills Summit on Regulatory reform in a changing VET sector, June 2014 Figure 13 shows the lower level of compliance at initial audit was against Standards 1 Quality training and assessment and 18 Governance. Following the first three years of national VET regulation, ASQA has drawn these conclusions: 35 three distinct groups have emerged in the Australian VET sector: high quality providers who fully comply with the required National Standards (around 20% of providers) providers that want to comply with the National Standards but experience some difficulties, at least at initial audit (around 60% of providers), and providers that do not provide quality training and are unwilling or unable to comply with the National Standards (around 20% of providers) most providers, some 80 percent, are experiencing some difficulty with doing assessment properly around one third of providers appear to be offering courses that are too 35 ibid short to enable sufficient quality delivery to ensure required skills are achieved, and the transactions based regulatory approach is too slow to focus adequately on poor quality providers. A new regulatory approach is being developed with the following features: 36 lower regulatory burden on high quality, fully compliant providers provision of more support to providers who are trying to do the right thing but have some difficulty in fully meeting the Standards more rigorous regulation of the minority who are seriously noncompliant, poor quality providers, and moving the regulatory trigger from applications to better identifying and managing risk. Certificate IV in Training and Assessment is the entry level standard for VET training and assessing, and the most common qualification held by 36 Source: Presentation by Chris Robinson, ASQA CEO at ACPET ACCI National Skills Summit on Regulatory reform in a changing VET sector, June Chapter 3 Identified workforce development needs

25 Predicting change Figure 13: Compliance with standards by existing RTOs, audits of existing RTOs (1 October March 2014) Compliance at initial audit Compliance following rectification 20 0 SNR 15 SNR 16 SNR 17 SNR 18 SNR 19 SNR 20 SNR 21 SNR 22 SNR 23 SNR 24 SNR 25 SNR 15: Quality training and assessment SNR 16: Training and student information SNR 17: RTO is responsive to clients and stakeholders SNR 18: Governance SNR 19: Cooperative with regulator SNR 20: Compliance with legislation SNR 21: Insurance SNR 22: Financial management SNR 23: Proper certification SNR24: Accurate and ethical marketing SNR 25: Transaction from superseded courses Source: Presentation by Chris Robinson, ASQA CEO at ACPET ACCI National Skills Summit on Regulatory reform in a changing VET sector, June (SNR Standards for Initial Registration) trainers and assessors. If the content or delivery of this qualification is insufficient the risk is that Australia s labour force will not be properly trained, with extensive, potential economic implications. 37 In January 2014 IBSA convened a round table to explore problems and solutions with the important Certificate IV in Training and Assessment (TAE). Among other issues, a critical weakness was identified around the lack of assessment skills. This has far reaching and fundamental effects as trainers, ill equipped to undertake skills assessment, cannot properly teach the skills required. Reasons for lack of assessment skills were identified and include: use of equivalence when dealing with staff updating qualifications the short course model which has been adopted for delivery of the Certificate IV TAE, limiting the opportunity for students to apply skills in different contexts a lack of external scrutiny, and insufficient support for professional development of VET trainers. 38 These concerns were augmented by recent research aimed at understanding how VET practitioners understand and use competency standards with the following findings: the interpretation of units of competency appears to be a highly sophisticated skill, yet the practitioners in this study did not appear to learn this in their initial training, but rather took up to a year to develop confidence in interpreting competencies when developing curriculum most experience with interpreting competencies was gained through practice, professional development and informal learning, and the difficulty in interpreting competencies was largely due to unclear language and jargon. 39 All VET stakeholders have a role to play in ensuring this key qualification has value and delivers confidence in the VET system. TECHNOLOGY BRING YOUR OWN DEVICE (BYOD) The BYOD movement affects both providers and learners. Earlier concerns over hidden costs, employee privacy and corporate data security are now giving way to convenience and efficiency. The rise of BYODs is making an impact on the need for IT skills and support, from help desk to mobile applications development to security and compliance. Rules of engagement for devices need to be established and users educated, both trainers and 37 IBSA Report, Australia s Most Important Qualification- A Roadmap for Reform, ibid 39 Hodge, S 2014 Interpreting competencies in Australian vocational education and training; practices and issues, NCVER, Adelaide Training & Education Industry 21

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