APPENDIX E: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Transcription

1 APPENDIX E: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2 APPENDIX E.i: CLIMATE CHANGE EMISSIONS FOR THE VILLAGE AT PLAYA VISTA, CITY OF LOS ANGELES, MESTRE GREVE ASSOCIATES, OCTOBER 10, 2008

3 Climate Change Emissions For The The Village at Playa Vista CITY OF LOS ANGELES Prepared For: CHRISTOPHER A. JOSEPH AND ASSOCIATES W. Olympic Blvd, Suite 101 Los Angeles, CA Submitted By: MESTRE GREVE ASSOCIATES Fred Greve P.E. Tanya Moon El Lazo Road Laguna Niguel, CA Fax December 4, 2008 Report #08-111

4 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page i Table Of Contents 1.0 Background Information Project Description Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Emission Inventories Sources of Greenhouse Gases in California Regulatory Framework Analysis Overview Short term Construction Emissions Estimate of Proposed Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions References... 25

5 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page Background Information 1.1 Project Description The Village at Playa Vista project comprises approximately 111 acres and consists of two components. The first component is the development of 2,600 dwelling units, 175,000 square feet of office spaces, 150,000 square feet of retail spaces, and 40,000 square feet of community serving uses. The proposed project would also include an Equivalency Program, in which a maximum of 125,000 square feet of office development may be exchanged for up to 56,832 square feet of retail uses or up to 200 assisted living units, or a combination thereof. The second component is the construction of a Riparian Corridor and restoration and maintenance of a portion of the Westchester Bluffs adjacent to the Riparian Corridor (the Habitat Creation/Restoration Component ). The project site is located adjacent to Jefferson Boulevard to the north, Bluff Creek Drive to the south, Campus Center Drive to the east, and Dawn Creek to the west in the City of Los Angeles. The Proposed Project Site is presented as Exhibit Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change The Earth s climate has always been in the process of changing, due to many different natural factors. These factors have included changes in the Earth s orbit, volcanic eruptions, and varying amounts of energy released from the sun. Differences such as these have caused fluctuations in the temperature of the climate, ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. However, since the late 18th century, humans have had an increasing impact on the rate of climate change, beginning with the Industrial Revolution. Many human activities have augmented the amount of greenhouse gases ( GHGs ) being released into our atmosphere, specifically the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation. The gases increase the efficiency of the greenhouse effect, which is the process of trapping and recycling energy (in the form of heat) that the Earth emits naturally, resulting in higher temperatures worldwide. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in February 2007 that warming is unequivocal, expressing very high confidence (expressed as a nine out of ten chance of being correct) that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. According to NOAA and NASA data, the average surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4 ºF since The warmest global average temperatures in human record have all occurred within the past 15 years, with the warmest two years being 1998 and This process of heating is often referred to as global warming, although the National Academy of Sciences prefers the terms climate change as an umbrella phrase which includes global warming as well as other environmental changes, in addition to the increasing temperatures. Some of these effects include changes to rainfall, wind, and current patterns, as well as snow and ice cover, and sea level. 1 EPA, 2007, epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html

6 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 2 Depending on which GHG emissions scenario is used, climate models predict that the Earth s average temperature could rise anywhere between 3 to 10.5 ºF by the end of this century. The degree of change is influenced by the assumed amount of GHG emissions, and how quickly atmospheric GHG levels are stabilized. At this point, however, the climate change models are not capable of accurately predicting all specific local temperature or climate impacts, but rather, can only predict global trends. 2 Therefore, predicting exact climate changes at the Proposed Project Site is beyond the capability of climate change models at this time. Exhibit 1 Proposed Project Site 2 EPA, 2007, epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html.

7 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 3 Global GHG emissions are measured in million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent ( MMT CO 2 EQ ) units. A metric ton is approximately 2,205 lbs. Some GHGs emitted into the atmosphere are naturally occurring, while others are caused solely by human activities. The principal GHGs 3 that enter the atmosphere because of human activities are: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), agriculture, irrigation, and deforestation, as well as the manufacturing of cement. Methane (CH 4 ) is produced and enters the atmosphere in a number of ways, both natural and man-made (anthropogenic). Decomposition occurring in landfills accounts for the majority of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions in California and in the United States as a whole. Livestock and other agricultural processes such as enteric fermentation, manure management, and rice cultivation are also significant sources of CH 4 in California. Methane is also emitted through the production, transportation and burning of coal, natural gas, and oil. Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is released most often during the burning of fuel at high temperatures. This GHG is caused mostly by motor vehicles, which also include non-road vehicles, such as those used for agriculture. 3 Black carbon is a form of particulate air pollution that is most often produced from the burning of biomass, cooking with solid fuels, and diesel exhaust. Some studies have implicated black carbon as a source of global climate change; however, the potential impact of black carbon on climate change is currently under substantial dispute. Black carbon is not assessed in this report for three primary reasons. First, no regulatory authority has classified black carbon as a greenhouse gas and it is not regulated under AB 32 or any other law implemented to address global climate change. Second, the tools are simply not available to quantify black carbon emissions at this time. Emissions factors for black carbon have not been published by the California Air Resources Board, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, or other reputable bodies. Finally, no guidance on the importance, evaluation, or mitigation of black carbon has been provided by the agencies leading regulation of the climate change issue. Therefore, while the Proposed Project will generate some black carbon, the quantities are indeterminable at this time. The potential impact of the black carbon emissions on climate change is also unknown at this time, however, it is anticipated that the Proposed Project would have a very small impact on climate change based on its size relative to the global nature of this issue.

8 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 4 Fluorinated Gases are emitted primarily from industrial sources, which often include hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Though they are often released in smaller quantities, they are referred to as High Global Warming Potential Gases because of their warming forcing power. Fluorinated gases are often used as substitutes for ozone depleting substances. 4 These gases have different potentials for trapping heat in the atmosphere, called global warming potential ( GWP ). For example, one pound of methane has 21 times more heat capturing potential than one pound of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide has 310 times more heat capturing potential than one pound of carbon dioxide, and sulfur hexafluoride has 3,200 times more heat capturing potential than one pound of carbon dioxide. When dealing with an array of emissions, the gases are converted to carbon dioxide equivalents ( CO 2 EQ ) for comparison purposes. The GWPs for common GHGs are shown in Table 1. Table 1 Global Warming Potentials (GWP) Gas Atmospheric Lifetime (years) Global Warming Potential (CO 2 EQ) Carbon Dioxide Methane 12 ±3 21 Nitrous Oxide HFC ,700 HFC-134a ,300 HFC-152a PFC: Tetrafluoromethane (CF 4 ) 50,000 6,500 PFC: Hexafluoroethane (C 2 F 6 ) 10,000 9,200 Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) 3,200 23,900 Source: EPA Non CO 2 Gases Economic Analysis and inventory. December Emission Inventories To put perspective on the emissions generated by a project and to better understand the sources of GHGs, it is important to look at emission inventories. The United Nations has taken the lead in quantifying GHG emissions and compiling the literature on climate change. The United Nations estimate for CO 2 equivalents for the world and for the top ten CO 2 producing countries is presented in Table 2. 4 No industrial uses are planned for the Proposed Project site, so no significant emissions of fluorinated gases are expected.

9 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 5 Table 2 Top Ten CO 2 Producing Nations between (Emissions in Million Metric Tons (MMT) CO 2 EQ) Country Emissions Percent of Global 1. United States % 2. China % 3. Japan % 4. India % 5. Germany % 6. Canada % 7. United Kingdom % 8. Brazil % 9. Italy % 10. France % Total Global 27, % Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data for the Period and Status of Reporting, October 19, As shown in Table 2, global CO 2 emissions total about 27,941 MMT CO 2 EQ (based on data collected between 1990 and 2004). The United States released 7,068 MMT CO 2 EQ in 2004, which is approximately 25% of the earth s total emissions. Within the United States, California has the second highest level of GHG production with Texas having the highest. In 2001, 81% of total GHG emissions in California are CO 2 produced from the burning of fossil fuels. 4 In relation to other states, California is the second highest producer of CO 2 due to the burning of fossil fuels, as shown in Exhibit 2. 5 California Energy Commission, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, December 2006.

10 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 6 Exhibit 2 CO 2 Production Through Fossil Fuels by State Source: California Energy Commission, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, December 2006.

11 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page Sources of Greenhouse Gases in California The California Energy Commission ( CEC ) categorizes GHG anthropogenic generation by source into five broad categories. The categories are: Transportation includes the combustion of gasoline and diesel in automobiles and trucks. Transportation also includes jet fuel consumption. Agriculture and forestry GHG emissions are composed mostly of nitrous oxide from agricultural soil management, CO 2 from forestry practice changes, methane from enteric fermentation, and methane and nitrous oxide from manure management. Commercial and residential uses generate GHG emissions primarily from the combustion of natural gas for space and water heating. Industrial GHG emissions are produced from many industrial activities. Major contributors include oil and natural gas extraction; crude oil refining; food processing; stone, clay, glass, and cement manufacturing; chemical manufacturing; and cement production. Wastewater treatment plants are also significant contributors to this category. Electric generation includes both emissions from power plants in California as well as power plants located outside of the state that supply electricity to the state. The amount of GHGs released from each of these categories in California from 1990 to 2004 is shown in Exhibit 3. A more detailed breakdown of California GHG emissions in both 1990 and 2004 are depicted in Table 3.

12 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 8 Exhibit 3 CA Greenhouse Emissions by Sector (In MMT CO 2 EQ) Source: California Energy Commission, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, December 2006.

13 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 9 Table 3 California GHG Emissions and Sinks Summary (Million metric tons of CO2 equivalence) Categories Included in the Inventory ENERGY Fuel Combustion Activities Energy Industries Manufacturing Industries & Construction Transport Other Sectors (Residential and Commercial/Institutional) Non-Specified Fugitive Emissions from Fuels Oil and Natural Gas Other Emissions from Energy Production INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES & PRODUCT USE Mineral Industry Chemical Industry Non-Energy Products from Fuels & Solvent Use Electronics Industry Product Uses as Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances Other Product Manufacture & Use Other Other AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, & OTHER LAND USE Livestock Land Aggregate Sources & Non-CO2 Emissions Sources on Land WASTE Solid Waste Disposal Wastewater Treatment & Discharge EMISSION SUMMARY Gross California Emissions Sinks and Sequestrations Net California Emissions Source: California Air Resources Board (CARB), Draft California Greenhouse Inventory by IPCC Category, August 2007 (available at 19.pdf). [Note: does not include aviation, which Exhibit 3 considers.] Examination of Exhibit 3 and Table 3 indicates that the single largest source of California s GHGs is the transportation sector, such as automobiles, trucks, and airplanes, producing about 40% of the state s total emissions in The electric generation sector is the second largest GHG contributor in the state.

14 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 10 While California has the second highest rate of GHG production in the nation, it should also be noted that California has one of the lowest per capita rates of GHG emissions. As shown in Exhibit 4, California has the fourth lowest per capita rate of CO 2 production from fossil fuels in the United States. 5 Wyoming produced the most CO 2 per capita, while the District of Columbia produced the lowest. Exhibit 4 CO 2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels Per Capita (2001) 6 According to the California Energy Commission, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, December 2006, due to the limited availability of data for state-by-state comparisons, only CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion for the 1990 to 2001 period are considered in this exhibit. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion compose 58 to 90 percent of the total GHG emissions of individual states; on a national average, they composed 80 percent of total GHG emissions in 2004.

15 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page Regulatory Framework Federal Plans, Policies, Regulations, and Laws. The federal government began studying the phenomenon of global warming as early as 1978 with the National Climate Protection Act, 92 Stat. 601, which required the President to establish a program to assist the Nation and the world to understand and respond to natural and man-induced climate processes and their implications. The 1987 Global Climate Protection Act, Title XI of Pub. L , directed the U.S. EPA to propose a coordinated national policy on global climate change, and ordered the Secretary of State to work through the channels of multilateral diplomacy to coordinate efforts to address global warming. In 1988, the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of humaninduced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. In 1992, the United States ratified a nonbinding agreement among 154 nations to reduce atmospheric GHGs. On March 21, 1994, the United States joined other countries around the world in signing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ). Under the Convention, governments gather and share information on GHG emissions, national policies, and best practices; launch national strategies for addressing GHG emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries; and cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty made under the UNFCCC. Countries can sign the treaty to demonstrate their commitment to reduce their emissions of GHGs or engage in emissions trading. More than 160 countries, accounting for 55 percent of global emissions, are under the protocol. United States Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the Protocol in However, in order for the Protocol to be formally ratified, it must be adopted by the U.S. Senate, which has not been done to date. In its 2007 Massachusetts v. EPA 6 decision, the United States Supreme Court held that GHGs fall within the Clean Air Act s definition of an air pollutant, and directed the EPA to consider whether GHGs cause a substantial endangerment to public health. If so, the EPA must regulate GHG emissions from automobiles under the Clean Air Act. As of this writing, USEPA has yet to issue a determination. In December 2007, President Bush signed a bill raising the minimum average miles per gallon (the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard) for cars, sport utility vehicles, and light trucks to 35 miles per gallon by 2020 and mandating increased use of ethanol and other biofuels over the next 15 years. This increase in CAFE standard will create a substantial reduction in GHG emissions from automobiles, which is the largest single emitting GHG sector in California. 7 Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 S. Ct (2007).

16 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 12 As of this writing, however, there are no adopted federal plans, policies, regulations or laws setting a mandatory limit on GHG emissions. California State Plans, Policies, Regulations, and Laws. 7 California has distinguished itself as a national leader in efforts to address global climate change by enacting a range of legislation and regulations, engaging in multi-national and multi-state collaborative efforts, and preparing a wealth of information on the impacts associated with global climate change. Assembly Bill 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Health and Safety Code et seq.). In September 2006, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed AB 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of In general, AB 32 directs the California Air Resources Board ( CARB ) to do the following: On or before June 30, 2007, CARB shall publish a list of discrete early action measures for reducing GHG emissions that can be implemented by January 1, 2010; By January 1, 2008, establish the statewide GHG emissions cap for 2020, based on CARB s calculation of statewide GHG emissions in 1990 (an approximately 25 percent reduction in existing statewide GHG emissions); Also by January 1, 2008, adopt mandatory reporting rules for GHG emissions sources that contribute the most to statewide emissions (Health & Safety Code 38530); By January 1, 2009, adopt a scoping plan that indicates how GHG emission reductions will be achieved from significant GHG sources through regulations, market mechanisms, and other strategies; On or before January 1, 2010, adopt regulations to implement the early action GHG emission reduction measures; On or before January 1, 2011, adopt quantifiable, verifiable, and enforceable emission reduction measures by regulation that will achieve the statewide GHG emissions limit by 2020; and On January 1, 2012, CARB s GHG emissions regulations become operative. On January 1, 2020, achieve 1990 levels of GHG emissions. In December 2007, CARB issued a final quantification of 1990 emissions at 427 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalent emissions. 8 8 CARB s California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Emissions Limit, public released on November 16, 2007.

17 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 13 AB 32 takes into account the relative contribution of each source or source category to protect adverse impacts on small businesses and others by requiring CARB to recommend a de minimis threshold of GHG emissions below which emissions reduction requirements would not apply. AB 32 also allows the Governor to adjust the deadlines mentioned above for individual regulations or the entire state to the earliest feasible date in the event of extraordinary circumstances, catastrophic events, or threat of significant economic harm. CARB Early Action Measures (June 30, 2007). On June 21, 2007, CARB approved its early action measures to address climate change, as required by AB 32. The three measures include: (1) a low carbon fuel standard, which will reduce the carbon-intensity in California fuels, thereby reducing total CO 2 emissions; (2) reduction of refrigerant losses from motor vehicle air conditioning system maintenance through the restriction of do-it-yourself automotive refrigerants; and (3) increased CH 4 capture from landfills through the required implementation of state-of-the-art capture technologies. Other early action measures are under consideration. CARB Mandatory Reporting Regulations (December 2007). Under AB 32, CARB propounded regulations to govern mandatory GHG emissions reporting for certain sectors of the economy, most dealing with approximately 94 percent of the industrial and commercial stationary sources of emissions. Regulated entities include electricity generating facilities, electricity retail providers, oil refineries, hydrogen plants, cement plants, cogeneration facilities, and industrial sources that emit over 25,000 metric tons of CO 2 from stationary source combustion. Senate Bill 375 (September 2008). In September 2008, SB 375 was signed by Governor Schwarzenegger. SB 375 is a comprehensive global warming bill that helps to achieve the goals of AB32. It requires the Metropolitan Planning Organization to include and adopt, in their regional transportation plan, a sustainable community strategy that will meet the region s target for reducing GHG emissions. Senate Bill 97 (2007). By July 1, 2009, the Governor s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) is directed to prepare, develop, and transmit to the Resources Agency guidelines for the feasible mitigation of GHG emissions or the effects of GHG emissions, as required by the California Environmental Quality Act. The Resources Agency is required to certify and adopt these guidelines by January 1, OPR is required to periodically update these guidelines as CARB implements AB 32. In addition, SB 97 states that the failure to include a discussion of GHG emissions in any CEQA document for a project funded under the Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality and Port Security Bond Act of 2006, or projects funded under the Disaster Preparedness and Flood Prevention Bond Act of 2006 shall not be a cause of action under CEQA. This last provision will terminate by its terms on January 1, Executive Order S (2007). Executive Order S calls for a reduction in the carbon intensity of California s transportation fuels by at least 10 percent by As noted above, the low-carbon fuel standard ( LCFS ) was adopted by CARB as one of its three early action measures on June 21, Senate Bill 1368 (2006) (Public Utilities Code ). SB 1368 required the California Public Utilities Commission ( PUC ) to establish a GHG emission performance standard by

18 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 14 February 1, 2007, for all electricity providers under its jurisdiction, including the state s three largest privately-owned utilities. Pub. Res. Code 8341(d)(1). These utilities provide approximately 30 percent of the state s electric power. After the PUC acted, the CEC adopted a performance standard consistent with the PUC performance standard and applied it to local publicly-owned utilities on May 23, 2007 (over one month ahead of its June 30, 2007 deadline). Cal. Pub. Res. Code 8341(e)(1). However, the California Office of Administrative Law ( OAL ) found four alleged flaws in the CEC s rulemaking. The CEC overcame these alleged flaws and adopted reformulating regulations in August Senate Bill 107 (2006). Senate Bill 107 ( SB 107 ) requires investor-owned utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric, to generate 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by Previously, state law required that this target be achieved by Western Regional Climate Action Initiative (Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington)(2007). Acknowledging that the western states already experience a hotter, drier climate, the Governors of the foregoing states have committed to three time-sensitive actions: (1) by August 26, 2007, to set a regional goal to reduce emissions from the states collectively, consistent with state-by state goals; (2) by August 26, 2008, to develop a design for a regional market-based multi-sector mechanism, such as a load-based cap and trade program, to achieve the regional GHG reduction goal; and (3) to participate in a multi-state GHG registry to enable tracking, management, and crediting for entities that reduce GHG emissions, consistent with state GHG reporting mechanisms and requirements. Executive Order S-3-05 (June 1, 2005). Executive Order S-3-05 calls for a reduction in GHG emissions to 2000 levels by 2010; 1990 levels by 2020; and for an 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by It also directs the California Environmental Protection Agency ( CalEPA ) to prepare biennial science reports on the potential impact of continued global warming on certain sectors of the California economy. California s Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program (2005). In 2002, California established its Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program, which originally included a goal of increasing the percentage of renewable energy in the state s electricity mix to 20 percent by The state s most recent 2005 Energy Action Plan raises the renewable energy goal from 20 percent by 2017, to 33 percent by Title 24, Part 6, California Code of Regulations (2005). In 2005, California adopted new energy efficiency standards for residential and nonresidential buildings in order to reduce California s energy consumption. This program has been partially responsible for keeping California s per capita energy use approximately flat over the past 30 years. Assembly Bill 1493 (2002) (Health and Safety Code ). Assembly Bill 1493 ( AB 1493 ) required CARB to develop and adopt the nation s first GHG emission standards for automobiles. Not only have litigants challenged their legality in federal court, but also USEPA denied California s request for a Clean Air Act waiver to implement its regulations. As of this

19 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 15 writing, California and other states who seek to adopt California s GHG emissions standards for automobiles are challenging USEPA s denial in federal court. Climate Action Registry (2001). California Senate Bills 1771 and 527 created the structure of the California Climate Action Registry ( Registry ), and former Governor Gray Davis signed the final version of the Registry s enabling legislation into law on October 13, These bills establish the Registry as a non-profit entity to help companies and organizations establish GHG emissions baselines against which future GHG emission reduction requirements could be applied. Using any year from 1990 forward as a base year, participants can record their annual GHG emissions with the Registry. In return for this voluntary action, the State of California promises to offer its best efforts to ensure that participants receive consideration for their early action if they are subject to any future state, federal, or international emissions regulatory scheme. South Coast Air Quality Management District Plans, Policies, Regulations and Laws. The South Coast Air Quality Management District ( SCAQMD ) adopted a Policy on Global Warming and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion in April The policy commits the SCAQMD to consider global impacts in rulemaking and in drafting revisions to the Air Quality Management Plan. In March 1992, the SCAQMD Governing Board reaffirmed this policy and adopted amendments to the policy to include the following directives: Phase out the use and corresponding emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methyl chloroform (1,1,1-trichloroethane or TCA), carbon tetrachloride, and halons by December 1995; Phase out the large quantity use and corresponding emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by the year 2000; Develop recycling regulations for HCFCs (e.g., SCAQMD Rules 1411 and 1415); Develop an emissions inventory and control strategy for methyl bromide; and Support the adoption of a California GHG emission reduction goal. The legislative and regulatory activity detailed above is expected to require significant development and implementation of energy efficient technologies and shifting of energy production to renewable sources. The SCAQMD s Working Group is developing a proposed set of GHG CEQA significance thresholds; however, nothing is published at this time. City of Los Angeles Plans, Policies, Regulations, and Laws. In May 2007, the City of Angeles Green LA, An Action Plan to Lead the Nation in Fighting Global Warming, outlining the goals and actions the City has established to reduce the generation and emission of GHGs from both public and private activities, which sets forth a goal for the City of Los Angeles to reduce CO 2 emissions to 35 percent below 1990 levels by The Action Plan focuses on reducing CO 2 emissions from power generation, but also emphasizes

20 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 16 the reduction of water consumption and waste, an increase in greening and open space, and a reduction in emissions from transportation. To achieve this, the City will: Increase the generation of renewable energy; Improve energy conservation and efficiency; and Change transportation and land use patterns to reduce dependence on automobiles. 3.0 Analysis Overview This assessment reviews the estimated GHG emissions of the Proposed Village at Playa Vista Project. The analysis quantifies, when possible, GHG emissions through 2010, 2020, and 2040 from construction and operations of the Proposed Project and the three equivalency scenarios. The analysis goes on to assess potential cumulative effects of these emissions. 4.0 Short term Construction Emissions On-site Construction Temporary impacts will result from Proposed Project construction activities. The primary source of GHG emissions generated by construction activities is from use of diesel-powered construction equipment and other combustion sources (i.e., generators, worker vehicles, materials delivery, etc.). The GHG air pollutants emitted by construction equipment would primarily be carbon dioxide. 9 Typical emission rates for construction equipment were obtained from URBEMISv9.2.4, which was released in Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions were calculated utilizing URBEMIS URBEMISv9.2.4 specifically calculates emissions for ROG, CO, NOx, SO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5 and CO 2. While the URBEMISv9.2.4 model does not include other GHG emissions generated by the proposed project (such as CH 4, N 2 O, and Fluorinated Gases), CO 2 emissions comprise approximately 99.6 percent of emissions from burning diesel fuel. 10 Consequently, non-co 2 GHG emissions represent a very small percentage (approximately 0.4 percent) of the total short-term construction GHG emissions and would not represent a significant source of GHG emissions generated by the proposed project during construction, even when combined with CO 2 emissions. Therefore, non-co 2 construction GHG emissions have not been quantified in this analysis. The Proposed Project Site comprises a total of approximately 111 acres, of which approximately 23 acres are open space parks and riparian/habitats. Subsequent to the City Council approval of the Proposed Project and certification of the EIR in September 2004, construction of the Proposed Project began, and continued until the September 13, 2007 appellate court decision 9 10 When one gallon of diesel fuel is burned it produces pounds of CO 2, 0534 pounds of CH 4, and pounds N 2 O. Based on the global warming potential of 21 for CH 4 and 310 for N 2 O relative to CO 2, the total pounds of CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 EQ) emissions from diesel fuel is CO 2 EQ/gallon, which is 99.6 percent of the total emissions. Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQS), Source Inventory of Bay Area Greenhouse Gas Emissions, November Id.

21 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 17 enjoining further construction on the site and mandating the superior court to vacate the 2004 approvals. Between September 2004 and September 13, 2007, a substantial portion of the infrastructure improvements were completed within the Proposed Project Site, including all streets and utilities in the northern half of the Site, and sewer, storm drains, curb and gutter, and the riparian corridor in the southern half. All mass grading was complete and surcharge was placed for the entire Proposed Project Site. Remaining construction is limited to 1) surcharge removal, 2) installation of water, electric, and gas lines, and the pavement of roadways in the southern half of the Site, 3) completion of streetscape (sidewalks, street lights, etc.) and parks, and 4) building construction. This analysis accounts for the GHG emissions associated with all construction activities associated with the Proposed Project, whether they occurred between September 2004 and September 13, 2007 or would be associated with completion of the Proposed Project. The number of heavy equipment operated utilized for each construction phase (i.e., grading, trenching and installation of utilities, building construction, etc.) were obtained from the Draft EIR Appendix E-1. Individual construction activities were grouped into the following five major construction phases, and the number of equipment used was based on a conservative worst case average of the grouped activities. Site Grading includes clearing, stripping, scarifying, compacting, fill, mass excavation, and grading. Grading emissions for the Proposed Project were estimated utilizing URBEMISv The number of heavy equipment operated during a peak grading period include 2 graders, 3 rubber tired dozers, 2 tractors/loaders/backhoes, 2 water trucks, and 20 dump trucks all operated 8 hours per day. These heavy equipment could operate simultaneously at any one time. Trenching includes the installation of storm drain, sewer, potable and reclaimed water, gas and electric utilities, following the completion of the mass grading. The heavy equipment utilized include 1 loader, 1 tractor/loader/backhoe, 1 trencher, and 1 water truck. Building Construction is the construction of the buildings proposed by the project. Equipment is planned to be utilized during a peak construction period include 1 crane, 2 cement trucks, 1 forklift, 1 loader, 1 tractor/loader/backhoe, 4 other equipment and 17 trucks. Asphalt paving includes installation of streets, sidewalks and landscape. The majority of diesel engine exhaust emissions are generated from the paving equipment and asphalt material haul trucks. Based on the construction information from the Draft EIR Appendix E-1, the asphalt paving for the project would occur over 85,087 square yards or approximately 17.6 acres. The heavy construction equipment required includes 1 grader, 1 dozer, 1 loader, 2 rollers and 4 other equipment. Architectural coatings include painting exterior and interior walls as well as coatings applied to windows and window casings. Architectural coating emissions for the Proposed Project were estimated utilizing URBEMISv URBEMIS v default assumptions.

22 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 18 Off-Site Roadway Improvements Off-site construction includes street improvements at seven locations in the vicinity of the project site. The locations of the street improvements are along Centinela Avenue Corridor, and the intersections of Centinela Avenue/Culver Boulevard, La Tijera Boulevard/ Centinela Avenue, Inglewood Boulevard/Culver Boulevard, Washington Place/Centinela Avenue, Overland Avenue/Culver Boulevard, and Sawtelle Avenue and Culver Boulevard. The construction data were obtained from the Draft EIR Appendix E-1. The off-site construction emissions were estimated utilizing URBEMISv Total Construction Emissions Using the estimates from URBEMISv of emissions from off-site street improvements as well as on-site mass site grading, trenching, building construction, asphalt paving, and architectural coatings for the Proposed Project, the peak air pollutant emissions were calculated and presented in Table 4. These emissions represent the total CO 2 emissions for construction. Worksheets showing the specific data used to calculate the grading emissions are presented in Appendix A. Table 4 Peak Construction Emissions Construction Emissions Activity CO 2 (Carbon Dioxide) Tons CO 2 MMTs ON-SITE - Site Grading/Construction Equip. 2, Trenching Building Construction Equip. 54, Asphalt Paving Construction Equip Architectural Coating OFF-SITE - Street Improvements Total Emissions: 57, Other GHG emissions (such as CH 4, N 2O, and Fluorinated Gases) are not calculated in URBEMIS v.9.2.4; however, CO 2 emissions comprise approximately 99.6 percent of emissions from burning diesel fuel. See Section 4.0, footnote 9. MMT = million metric tons Numbers may not add up due to rounding. 5.0 Estimate of Proposed Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions The analysis considers direct and indirect emissions of the operation of the Proposed Project after build out resulting from motor vehicle trips, on-site combustion of natural gas, off-site emissions from the generation of electricity consumed by the Proposed Project, as well as emissions generated by potable and recycled water usage associated with the Proposed Project. To calculate greenhouse emissions, the Proposed Project s daily vehicle trip generation provided in the Draft EIR (August 2003) was utilized. See Appendix B for summary of traffic trip data

23 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 19 from the Proposed Project. Other emissions will be generated from the Proposed Project through combustion of natural gas as well as off-site GHG emissions from the generation of electricity. The natural gas and electricity consumption for the entire Proposed Project were obtained from Tables 156, 157 and 158 of the 2003 Draft EIR. 12 Greenhouse gas emissions also will be generated by potable and recycled water usage associated with the Proposed Project. The treatment and conveyance of water is a major source of electricity consumption in California. Potable and recycled water usage for the Proposed Project also was obtained from the 2003 Draft EIR. The 2003 Draft EIR s Table 163 and Table 164 stated that, on an average daily basis, the entire project requires million gallons per day (MGD) of potable water and 63,624 gallons of reclaimed water usage. Table 5 Projected Daily Trips, Energy, and Water Consumption from Proposed Project PROPOSED PROJECT PROPOSED PROJECT - Trips 24,220 dt - Electricity Usage 53,010 KWh/day - Natural Gas Consumption kcf/day - Potable Water Consumption mgd -Reclaimed water usage 63,624 gpd Notes: KWh=kilowatt-hour mgd = million gallons per day gpd = gallons per day dt = daily trips Table 6 analyzes the projected emissions from the Proposed Project. More specific data utilized in calculating the emissions are provided in the appendix. CARB s EMFAC2007 emissions database provided the appropriate emission rate and vehicle trip length for each category of vehicle. The emission rates utilized for natural gas and electrical usage were obtained from the EPA s AP-42, Tables and Table 3.1-2a, respectively. The electrical consumption required to deliver water depends on how far the water must be pumped to the user. Generally, the LADWP water comes from a variety of sources, ranging from local groundwater supplies to distant areas. 13 Roughly half of the water services the LADWP area comes from the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (a consortium of local water districts) and that most of that water comes from the Colorado River aqueduct. 14 Other significant sources for LADWP include local wells, which would both have a lower (but an unknown) energy consumption rate. As a conservative case assumption, the average electrical consumption rate for potable water is assumed to be 2,000 KWh/acre-foot, which represents the typical energy requirement for water coming through the Colorado River Aqueduct. 15 For recycled water, the The daily electricity consumption of MWh from the 2003 DEIR Table 156 was utilized for the Proposed Project. City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, 2005 Urban Water Management Plan. City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, 2005 Urban Water Management Plan. Wilkinson, Robert, Director, Water Policy Program, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, UCSB, and Gary Wolff, Principal Economist and Engineer, The Pacific Institute, 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report to the California Energy Commission. Wilkinson, Robert, Director,

24 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 20 rate of 400 KWh/acre-foot is typically used. 16 However, emission rates for most sources of N 2 O, another GHG, are not available. N 2 O is a very minor emission in the combustion process. N 2 O emissions will be very small and likely will account for only 0.1% or less of the GHG emissions for this type of project. N 2 O is a very minor emission in the combustion process. As a result, N 2 O emissions are not included in this report. To determine the total carbon dioxide equivalent of GHG emissions from the Proposed Project, the source emissions were calculated by multiplying the CH 4 and CO 2 emissions in pounds per day by GWP constants of 21 and 1, respectively. The total CO 2 equivalent is the sum of these CH 4 and CO 2 numbers. 17 The CO 2 equivalents were then converted to metric tons (MT) per year. Table 6 Total Estimated Proposed Project Greenhouse Gas Emissions Year 2010 Source MT/Year MMT/Year Total CO 2 EQ Total CO 2 EQ Percent of Total Emissions PROPOSED PROJECT - Vehicular Trips 24, % - Natural Gas Consumption 9, % - Electrical Usage 7, % - Potable water usage % - Potable water usage % Total Emissions : 41, Note: The vast majority of the CO 2 equivalency estimated to be emitted from the proposed project are CO 2 emissions. MMT=Million metric tons per year. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. The Proposed Project is projected to emit a total of 41,825 metric tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent GHGs. Table 6 shows that 58% of the Proposed Project s GHG emissions (as expressed in CO 2 equivalents) generated by the Proposed Project are projected to be from motor vehicles. Natural gas consumption and electric usage are the next biggest contributors and account for 23% and 18% of the GHG emissions, respectively Water Policy Program, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, UCSB, and Gary Wolff, Principal Economist and Engineer, The Pacific Institute, 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report to the California Energy Commission. Wilkinson, Robert, Director, Water Policy Program, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, UCSB, and Gary Wolff, Principal Economist and Engineer, The Pacific Institute, 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report to the California Energy Commission. This analysis of operational GHG emissions from the Proposed Project includes assessments of methane (unlike the construction analysis) because emissions factors for methane are available for operational GHG emissions from sources such as CARB s EMFAC2007 and EPA s AP-42, Tables and Table 3.1-2a.

25 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 21 Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Proposed Project The GHG emissions also were projected for future years beyond 2010 and are presented in Table 7. The change in the GHG emissions corresponds to changes in the projected EMFAC2007 CO 2 emission rates. Table 7 Project Trend Of GHG Emissions (metric tons per year of CO 2 equivalents) Year MT CO 2 EQ MMT CO 2 EQ , , , , Table 8 compares the GHG emissions from the Proposed Project to total emissions in California, the United States, and globally. This comparison shows that the Proposed Project s emissions represent a very small fraction of total GHG emissions Table 8 Relative Contribution of Proposed Project Emissions to Global GHG Emissions Percent Contribution of Proposed Project MMT CO 2 eeq Year GHG Emissions Project Emissions State of California % United States 7, % World 27, % Sources: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data for the Period and Status of Reporting, October 19, 2006; California Energy Commission, Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004, December The emissions generated by this Proposed Project, therefore, will contribute a very small amount to the overall climate change issue. By way of comparison, the global data from the United Nations indicates that the project would contribute less than 015% to the GHG burden for the planet. Even when compared to California s GHG emissions, the Proposed Project s individual contribution is quite small (approximately 89% of 2004 California emissions). Equivalency Program Emissions The Proposed Project also includes an Equivalency Program in which a maximum of 125,000 square feet of office development may be exchanged for up to 56,832 square feet of retail uses or up to 200 assisted living units, or a combination thereof. Within the Equivalency Program, there are three equivalent scenarios: 1) All Retail, 2) All Assisted Living, and 3) Retail/Assisted

26 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 22 Living. The analysis compares daily trips, energy, and water consumption of the three equivalency scenarios and quantifies the greenhouse gas emissions that result from each scenario. Table 9 Projected Daily Trips, Energy, and Water Consumption from Equivalency Scenarios All Retail in Equivalency Program All Assisted- Living in Equivalency Program Retail/Assisted Living in Equivalency Program - Trips 23,931 24,178 24,070 - Electricity Usage 40,090 KWh 43,174 KWh 43,172 KWh - Natural Gas kcf kcf kcf Consumption - Potable Water mgd mgd mgd Consumption -Reclaimed water usage 56,999 gpd 62,347 gpd 56,999 gpd Notes: KWh= kilowatt-hour, kcf = thousand cubic feet, mgd = million gallons per day, gpd = gallons per day Sources: Trips: Appendix B,2008 Report from Raju & Associates Technical Report Summarizing ADTs from 2003 Traffic Study; Electricity & Natural Gas: 2003 Draft EIR, Tables 156, 157 and 158; Water: 2003 Draft EIR, Tables 163 and 168 As indicated in Table 9, the All Retail equivalency scenario will generate the fewest trips (23,931) and use the least amount of energy (40,090 KWh of daily electricity usage, thousand cubic feet of daily natural gas consumption, million gallons per day of potable water consumption, and 56,999 gallons per day of reclaimed water consumption). The All Assisted Living equivalency scenario is anticipated to generate 24,178 daily trips, 43,174 KWh of daily electricity usage, thousand cubic feet of daily natural gas consumption, million gallons per day of potable water consumption, and 62,347 gallons per day of reclaimed water consumption. The Retail/Assisted Living equivalency scenario is anticipated to generate slightly fewer daily trips (24,070) and slightly less energy and water consumption (43,172 KWh of daily electricity usage, thousand cubic feet of daily natural gas consumption, million gallons per day of potable water consumption, and 56,999 gallons per day of reclaimed water consumption).

27 Mestre Greve Associates Village at Playa Vista Page 23 Table 10 Total Estimated Emissions From Equivalency Scenarios Year 2010 Source MT/Year Total CO 2 EQ MMT/Year Total CO 2 EQ % of Total Emissions All Retail in Equivalency Program - Vehicular Trips 24, % - Natural Gas Consumption 9, % - Electrical Usage 7, % - Potable water usage % - Non-potable water % Total Emissions : 41, All Assisted-Living in Equivalency Program Vehicular Trips 24, % Natural Gas Consumption 10, % Electrical Usage 8, % - Potable water usage % - Non-potable water % Total Emissions : 43, Retail/Assisted-Living in Equivalency Program Vehicular Trips 24, % Natural Gas Consumption 10, % Electrical Usage 8, % - Potable water usage % - Non-potable water % Total Emissions : 42, The vast majority of the CO 2 equivalency estimated to be emitted from the proposed project is CO 2 emissions. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Of the three scenarios in the Equivalency Program, the All Retail scenario would generate fewer emissions than if the program were not applied, while the All Assisted Living scenario would generate the highest emissions. If the Equivalency Program is utilized, then a range of between 41,474 and 43,041 total carbon dioxide equivalent GHGs would be emitted. Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Equivalency Scenarios The GHG emissions also were projected for future years beyond 2010 and are presented in Table 11. The analysis indicates that between 2010 and 2020, the GHG emissions in CO 2 equivalent will drop and then rise slightly thereafter. The rise and fall in the GHG emissions are directly proportional to the rise and drop in the projected EMFAC2007 CO 2 emission rates.