Bandwidth Trends on the Internet A Cable Data Vendor s Perspective. Tom Cloonan, Chief Strategy Officer, ARRIS

Transcription

1 Bandwidth Trends on the Internet A Cable Data Vendor s Perspective Tom Cloonan, Chief Strategy Officer, ARRIS

2 Agenda Introduction Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the Future) Networking Equipment Trends Conclusions 2 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

3 Monitoring Bandwidth Trends for the Cable Industry We need to predict the capacities for these products in the future Customer Premise EPON and RFOG Outside Plant Nodes and Amplifiers Head-end Headend Optics and Transmitters Hosted Service Portal Fixed Mobility Convergence Residential Gateways Taps and Splitters Local Encoders Universal Edge QAM Video Gateways and Players SMB Gateways CMTS Edge Routers Wireless Networking Wi-Fi Solutions Indoor/Outdoor Encoders Transcoders VOD and Advertising Tools & Services 3 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

4 Agenda Introduction Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the Future) Networking Equipment Trends Conclusions 4 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

5 Some Basic Terms Used In This Talk Max Possible BW=120 Mbps (w/ 3-Channel Bonding Modems) Instantaneous BW Max Permitted BW=20 Mbps Average Busy-hour BW=600 kbps Average Consumed BW=300 kbps Min BW=0 Mbps On-line (busy-hour) Off-line On-line time Average Busy-hour BW & Average Consumed BW tend to be used quite extensively for Traffic Engineering calculations (determining how much Bandwidth Capacity is required to satisfy a given Service Group (pool) of subscribers) 5 ARRIS Investor Conference

6 Max Permitted Bandwidth Trends for Modems (First Charted in 2008) 100G 10G 1G 100M 10M 1M 100k 10k 1k Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) 1.2 kbps 300 bps After Curve-Fitting, the Past 25-years Show a Constant Increase of ~1.5x every year... resulting in Max Permitted BW=288 Mbps in kbps 2.4 kbps 5 Mbps 1 Mbps 256 kbps 512 kbps 56 kbps 28 kbps 128 kbps 33 kbps 14.4 kbps The Era of Cable Modems The Era of Dial-Up Modems Mbps The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 2010??? (1.5) ( ) = 5M/300 (1.5) ( ) = 288M/5M Gbps 10 Gbps 1 Gbps ~288 Mbps 50 Mbps 12 Mbps Year

7 Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nielsen s Law of Internet Bandwidth (1998) 7 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

8 Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) Bandwidth (bps) Bandwidth Trends and Predictions 100G 10G 1G 100M 10M The past 29-years show a constant bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year Mbps 12 Mbps The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 200 Mbps ~300 Mbps? Modem Bandwidth (bps) vs Year M 100k 10k 1k bps 9.6 kbps 2.4 kbps 1.2 kbps 256 kbps 56 kbps 28 kbps The Era of Dial-Up Modems 128 kbps 5 Mbps 1 Mbps 512 kbps 33 kbps 14.4 kbps The Era of Cable Modems Year Year 8

9 Average Bandwidth Trends for Modems (First Charted in 2008) Average Downstream Bandwidth for Modems 100M (1.5) ( ) = 3.5M/90k 10M 1M 100k 10k Assume a Constant Increase of ~1.5x every year 30 kbps 135 kbps 90 kbps 456 kbps Useful for estimating the required Bandwidth for a Service Group Per-sub Bandwidth must rise Bandwidth # Subs Mbps (A ~10x increase over the Avg. BW of Today) Year 2016 Sanity Check: Predicted Concurrency=(Avg BW)/(Max Permitted BW)=3.5/288= ~1.2%... This roughly matches the predictions from a Comcast conference paper: Saifur Rahman, "DOCSIS Migration Methodology: From A to B to 3", Communication Technology (SCTE, Vol. 24, No. 11, November 2007), pp

10 Example Of How Some MSOs Might Choose To Manage Their BW/Subscriber Metric CMTS Fiber Node 800 Home Service Group (320 subs) 40 Mbps 30 Mbps As more Bandwidth per Subscriber is Needed... CMTS 80 Mbps Bonding Group 40 Mbps 40 Mbps Fiber Node Avg DS BW per sub = 40 Mbps/320 subs = 125 kbps/sub 400 Home Service Group (160 subs) 30 Mbps 30 Mbps Avg DS BW per sub = 80 Mbps/160 subs = 500 kbps/sub Mbps Bonding Group

11 Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) Avg DS Bandwidth for Single Modem ((bps) Extended View of HSD Downstream Bandwidth Trends (Per Subscriber) Max. Downstream BW/sub Avg. Downstream BW/sub 100G 10G ~73 Gbps? 100G 10G 1G 100M 10M 1M 100k 10k 1.2 kbps 1k The past 29-years show a constant bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year Mbps 50 Mbps 12 Mbps 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 9.6 kbps 2.4 kbps 256 kbps 56 kbps 28 kbps 33 kbps 14.4 kbps 512 kbps 128 kbps 1G 100M 10M 1M 100k 10k 1k Assume that DS Tavg is 220 kbps in 2010 and grows by 1.5x per year ~731 Mbps? bps The Era of Dial-Up Modem s The Era of Cable Modems The Era of Wideband Cable Modems Year Year 11

12 A Philosophical Side-Bar on Downstream Bandwidth Growth (Better Done Over Beers) Some argue that we will soon hit an asymptotic limit in Downstream Bandwidth Growth due to the limit of the human eye and mind to absorb information Ex: If a 20 Mbps, 3D-HD, H.264 video feed is sent to (on average) 2.3 people per home, then each home should be satiated with an average bandwidth offer of (20 Mbps)*(2.3)=46 Mbps which we predict we will hit by ~2023 (in ~12 years). Maybe BUT What about the impact of DVR pumping bandwidth? What about the impact of cloud technologies (like Apples icloud)? What about machine-to-machine transfers for video search engines looking for our optimal content for each night? What about holography? What about the smell & touch & taste technologies that are yet-to-be invented? It may be a while before we hit the asymptotic limit Source: ARRIS Estimates 12 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

13 Upstream Bandwidth Growth Max US Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) The Past 10 years Show a Constant Increase of ~1.1x every year... Will that pace continue? Recent activity suggests an accellerating rate of increase we will assume it will increase to the 1.5x growth rate in the next slide. 100G 10G 1G 100M 10M 1M 100k 10k 1k The Era of Cable Modems The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 1 Mbps kbps 450 kbps kbps 5 Mbps??? Year 13

14 Max US Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) Avg US Bandwidth for Single Modem (bps) Extended View of HSD Upstream Bandwidth Trends (Per Subscriber) Max. Upstream BW/sub Avg. Upstream BW/sub 100G 100G 10G ~14.6 Gbps? 10G 1G 100M 10M 1M Assume the US Tmax is always 1/5 of the DS Tmax (ex: 50 Mbps DS tier has 10 Mbps US today) 1G 100M 10M 1M Assume that US Tavg is 73 kbps in 2010 and grows by 1.5x per year ~241 Mbps? 100k 10k 100k 10k 1k k Year Year 14

15 Some Notes On Upstream Bandwidth Upstream Bandwidth is comprised of two types of traffic: Protocol Messages (ex: HTTP GETs, TCP ACKs, etc.) Uploads (ex: P2P torrents, Web-Page inputs, FTP transfers) The Protocol Message Bandwidth is predictable and almost calculable (if you know the Downstream Bandwidth & assume typical TCP ACK behavior): US Protocol Message BW = ~DS BW * (64 bytes/ack pkt)/(2*1500 bytes/tcp pkt) = ~DS BW * (0.0213) = ~2% * DS BW The Upload Bandwidth is harder to predict it is highly dependent on the popularity of apps at any given time Ex: When P2P was big in 2008, US BW was ~41% of DS BW Ex: When OTT IP Video became big in 2010, US BW dropped to ~28% of DS BW Source: ARRIS Estimates 15 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

16 Percent of Total Bandwidth Avg Bandwidth/Sub (kbps) Per Service Group Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-11 Over-The-Top (OTT) Streaming Media Is Dominating the DOCSIS HSD Growth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Mix of Traffic Protocol Types vs. Time Per-Subscriber Avg. Bandwidth Is Being Rapidly Increased Downstream Bandwidth/Sub (kbps) Upstream Bandwidth/Sub (kbps) Note slope change due to OTT video (since 2009) Source for both graphs: Top 5 US MSO 0% January-10 Streaming Media Web Browsing January-11 Peer-to-Peer Other Protocols The traffic mix is changing fast Service Providers must respond quickly The ratio of Downstream-to-Upstream bandwidth is growing as IP Video increases ~2.4 in 2008 and ~3.5 in

17 Amount of Bandwidth Bandwidth Trends for Different Traffic Mixes 160 Mix of Traffic Types vs Time Other Protocols Web Browsing Peer-to-Peer Streaming Media Jan-10 Date Jan ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

18 % of Overall Traffic IP Video Trends Over Time May 2010 March % Avg IP Video from the Internet 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 You Tube Flash Itunes RSTP Netflix Windows Media Hulu Unbox Source: Top 10 US MSO 18

19 Overall IP Video Traffic Details (March 2011) Internet to Subscribers Subscribers to Internet Max Downstream Bandwidth Consumption (Gb/s) Overall IP Video Downstream Percentage of Overall Traffic Netflix (Add all Netflix Values) % You Tube (Add all You tubes and Google Video) % Flash (Add Flash and Shockwave) % RSTP (RTSP, RTMP and RTSP over UDP) % Itunes % Windows Media (WMP and MS ASF) % 19 Hulu % Source: Top 10 US MSO Max Upstream Bandwidth Consumption (Gb/s) Overall IP Video Upstream 6.64 Percentage of Overall Traffic You Tube (Add all You Tube and Google Video) % Netflix (Add all Netflix Values) % Flash (Add Flash and Shockwave) % RSTP (RTSP, RTMP and RTSP over UDP) % Slingbox % Itunes % Windows Media (WMP and MS ASF) % CCTV % Qvod % Hulu %

20 Snapshot of Packet Size Trends 20 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

21 Average Downstream Bandwidth per Subscriber (kbps) Bandwidth Trend Differences Between Different Service Providers Bandwidth Trends at Five Service Providers in Q10 Source: Top 10 US MSO 1Q11 33% Growth 33% Growth 100% Growth 60% Growth 40% Growth This may represent an un-congested subscriber s bandwidth level in 2011 These may represent congested subscriber bandwidth levels in 2011 Subscriber Satisfaction Issues Will Drive Service Providers to Increase Investment to Retain and Attract Customers 21 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

22 Agenda Introduction Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the Future) Networking Equipment Trends Conclusions 22 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

23 Why Discuss Equipment In A Talk On Bandwidth Trends? In order for the Bandwidth Trends to materialize, the available Equipment MUST be able to support the predicted Bandwidths at acceptable cost levels We will explore this topic from the point-of-view of DOCSIS CMTS Equipment, which serve Service Groups For an Typical Single High-Speed Data Service Group with ~500 Homes Passed, MSOs predict: 2008: 1 DOCSIS Downstream (~40 Mbps) 2011: 4 DOCSIS Downstreams (~160 Mbps) 2015: ~20 DOCSIS Downstreams (~800 Mbps) Source: ARRIS Estimates 23 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

24 Downstreams Per DS-SG Bandwidth Trends (for ~500-Homes Passed DS-SG) 24

25 CCAP The Cable Industry Response Rear View to Rapid Bandwidth Growth 16U Chassis Converged Cable Access Platform CMTS (HSD, VoIP) UEQ (VoD, SDV, M-CMTS) IP Video EPON Highly Available Fully redundant design, no single point of failure Separate upstream and downstream modules supporting dynamic mix of services Future Proof Terabit-plus capacity in backplane Extreme Density 20x-80x increase in capacity 14x-60x power reduction 20x-80x space reduction Support for up to ~6.3 Gbps of Downstream Bandwidth to each Service Group The CCAP Architecture Has Been Designed to Carry the Cable Industry Deep Into the Next Decade and Beyond Exhaust Air Primary 100-Gig-E Ports Secondary 100-Gig-E Ports 12 Ports/DS Card 32/48/64 Narrowcast QAMs/Port 96 Broadcast QAMs/Port Primary Switch/Route Engine Secondary Switch/Route Engine Power Supply Modules XR2 XR1 DS Redundancy DS DS DS DS DS US Redundancy US US US Front View 16U Chassis US US 24 Ports/US Card (Implemented using high density UCH w/ MCX-75 connectors) Fan Modules Intake Air

26 1 DS 4 DS 8 DS 16 DS DS Downstream Channels Per Service Group Today CMTS Edge Router Evolution Ongoing Capacity Expansion based on Moore s Law ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

27 Moore s Law & a Perfect Storm of New Technologies Will Enable Required Features for this Decade Building Blocks L2/L3 Switch Chips High-Speed Digital-to-Analog Converters Burst Receivers 2007 Capabilities 2011 Capabilities Increase 60 Gbps 640 Gbps 10x 1 Downstream Channel per DAC 2 Upstream Channels per Receiver 100+ Downstream Channels per DAC 12 Upstream Channels per Receiver 100x Processor Chips 2 Cores per Chip 32 Cores per Chip 16x Allows higher capacities within a given chassis size Allows increased densities Allows for a single chassis that supports all services Allows Lower Cost/Channel Allows Next-Gen Networking Equipment to support the Need 6x 27

28 Agenda Introduction Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the Future) Networking Equipment Trends Conclusions 28 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

29 Conclusions Bandwidth growth on Service Provider networks has been growing exponentially for ~30 years The Downstream growth rate has been roughly 1.5x per year Web-Surfing was the driver of growth in 2000 P2P was the driver of growth in 2008 IP Video is the driver of growth today The growth is expected to continue for many years into the future as new yet-to-be-invented applications are created Network equipment providers are capitalizing on Moore s Law to provide the capacities that will support this growth The Internet will continue to grow to support the newly-evolving Applications & the higher Bandwidth Goals (ex: 1 Gbps to every home ) that will dominate the markets of the future 29 ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011

30 THANK YOU