OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE FOR STATE OF WASHINGTON

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE FOR STATE OF WASHINGTON

2 OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE Contacted by Heber Kennedy from Geometrics Scott Carter Jones Lang LaSalle Gordon Buchan Kidder Mathews What was Heber Thinking?

3 ASSUMPTIONS Ports control land and buildings available for commercial/industrial use Port of the Port s mission is to generate jobs, tax base and economic development for communities you serve In many cases land cannot be sold and is only available on a long-term lease basis Correct?

4 SOURCES FOR COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTIONS Commercial Real Estate Brokers are looking for these same deals Sources Local clients Clients of other brokers in other markets Relationships in associations such as CoreNet, Industrial Asset Management Council (IAMC), SIOR There seems to be a limited amount of marketing of Port properties to Seattle Commercial Brokers Seattle Commercial Brokers could be a good resource for potential Port property transactions

5 WHAT DRIVES DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL USER COMPANIES Access to raw material and/or low cost utilities Access to highly trained and/or low cost labor Distribution connections to retail markets Access to shipping ports Cost of Real Estate and protection of asset value Fee owned land vs. long-term lease land For some users free trade zones (FTZ) can be attractive

6 HOW DOES WASHINGTON STATE STACK UP? Unemployment US 7.3% State of WA 6.8% Seattle/Bellevue/Everett 5.7% Tacoma 7.7% Longview 9.5% Tri Cities 7.7% Spokane 7.2% Bremerton 6.4% Olympia 6.7% Bellingham 6.5% Yakima 8.8% Wenatchee 6.2%

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8 STATE OF WASHINGTON INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS Base Current Vacancy 2007 Vacancy NW Washington 7.8 Million SF 11.5% 4.4% Central Puget Sound Million SF 6.9% 5.2% SW Washington 32 Million SF 5.5% 4.2% Central Washington 21.7 Million SF 4.4% 4.2% Spokane 38.5 Million SF 4.5% 3.3% Rest of Eastern Counties 5 Million SF 13.1% 7.6%

9 CENTRAL PUGET SOUND INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS Base Current Vacancy 2007 Vacancy King County Million SF 4.9% 3.8% Pierce County 70 Million SF 6.0% 6.8% Snohomish County 34.7 Million SF 6.0% 5.6% Thurston County 34 Million SF 9.4% 5.9% Kitsap County 2.1 Million SF 7.1% 4.5%

10 RECENT NET ABSORPTION FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE NW Washington 22, ,969 SW Washington 1,360, ,696 Central Washington 206, ,026 Spokane 291,376 22,684 Other Eastern Counties -150, ,711 Central Puget Sound 3,544,419 1,054,296

11 CENTRAL PUGET SOUND INDUSTRIAL BUILDING SPACE NET ABSORPTION King County 2,547, ,294 Pierce County 11, ,886 Snohomish County 391, ,086 Thurston County 593, ,970 Kitsap County -7,388 88,115

12 OUTLOOK NW Washington Approval of coal bulk cargo terminal would be big Oil refineries and aluminum smelter (Italco) drive a lot of business for subcontractors Bellingham airport expansion is a big economic boost for the region. Both Aligent and Alaska Airlines now fly to many destinations from Bellingham Retail is strong with visitors from Canada Some Canada manufacturers are putting additional facilities south of the border in order to help with currency fluctuations between the US and Canada Outlook is stable

13 OUTLOOK SW Washington Benefit from lack of industrial land in Central Puget Sound and Portland markets Firms have targeted lower cost land along I-5 corridor between Seattle and Portland Improving prospects for timber industry may help coastal markets Pontoons for 520 bridge in Seattle has been a temporary boost Portland industrial market is fairly strong, but has limited industrial zoned land Outlook is positive, especially along I-5 freeway corridor between Seattle and Portland

14 OUTLOOK Central Washington Stable market with reliance on agriculture uses Fruit packing and wine distribution are strong Washington State has huge worldwide market share in sale of apples, cherries, and pears (Yakima is the hops capital of the country) Washington State now has second place USA market share in wine production with nearly 800 wineries in the state Low cost electricity has attracted digital storage facilities in Moses Lake/ Quincy/Wenatchee Expansion of BMW carbon fiber plan in Moses Lake The Hanford site continues to fuel the Tri Cities economy Outlook is stable

15 OUTLOOK Spokane and Eastern Washington The market follows the Central Puget Sound by months Market vacancies are declining and rents are stabilizing These markets do not see speculative development, thus were not over built Economic growth expected at 1.5% vs. 2.8% in the Central Puget Sound Health Care is an active sector, WSU adding pharmacy school in Spokane, new hospital in Kennewick and clinics expanded into a number of communities

16 OUTLOOK Central Puget Sound Region Technology industries leading strong economy with new companies driving job growth Boeing manufacturing jobs are very important Ports of Seattle and Tacoma are major drivers for warehouse space demand How will expansion of Panama Canal impact local ports? E-commerce will change the patterns of distribution and delivery 1 million SF of new speculative industrial in 2013, 2.8 million SF coming online in 2014 The larger user activity of 250,000+ SF has slowed, but picked up in the 25, ,000 SF range as local and regional businesses expand Leading industries are food & beverage, 3-PL/transportation

17 CONCLUSION Outlook for Commercial/Industrial real estate is in Washington State is positive Central Puget Sound economy is solid, not booming, but still one of the strongest in the nation The balance of the State is stable with improving trends