Honeywell - A Supplement to the US Domestic Stock Market

Transcription

1 HVAC Industry What Happens In Vegas Need Not Stay In Vegas: "Resi Reset" Thesis Intact With Upside, Comm'l Acceleration Under Way We see upside to still-subdued HVAC industry growth expectations for 211. Resi can beat mid-single-digit growth, and we think commercial is coming back faster than expectations. Price/cost remains a good sell-side story, but the undeniable fact is that the industry is getting significant price. We now see upside for related names which have yet to report like LII, WSO, and IR in 4Q. Bottom line, while stocks like LII and IR have recovered from oversold lows this fall, there is still some juice left to be squeezed here on the upside, in our view, and we remain Overweight on all three names. Recently attended HVAC Expo in Vegas. We met with scores of major distributors, along with a few component manufacturers, and one or two OEMs. The distributors do not have booths, so access/commentary here is proprietary versus booth tours very few of the major OEMs attend the show; so, intelligence from booth tours alone could be marginal, in our view. Negative resi HVAC still consensus, and we think there is upside left, even after recent run, some of which should come on 4Q results Conversations with distributors note %+ growth in 4Q, driven by a combination of seasonally favorable weather (heating season), along with some pre-buy related to price increases 4Q volumes are only 15% of annual volumes, so every 1% of pre-buy impact is only 2 bps of annual headwind, not a major concern to us. reinforced by industry data. HARDI data (which is accurate and a good gauge of sell-through ) shows December up 17%, while Carrier said its 4Q sales were up almost %. When taken with the 24% November increase, average HARDI sales were up ~12% in 4Q, comfortably ahead of the ~% growth seen in full year 2, pointing to a good finish to the year for sellthrough. Keep in mind that Carrier has been a good reflection of sell-in (AHRI data, which is not as strong in 4Q), Trane is a good 5/5 mix of sell-in and sell-through (HARDI data), while LII should align more closely with HARDI given 8% company-owned distribution. We see the greatest opportunity for upside at LII given it s more aligned to (1) strong sell-through trends (8% up 12%), while (2) it also has more heating exposure, and the ARI showing furnaces up nicely QTD supports a growth rate of as high as % versus expectations for a decline (every 2% of resi revenue = ~$.2). 211 looking up as fix dynamic should start to fade and pent-up demand begins to hit. Looking into next year, many distributors noted plans from OEMs that call for growth of anywhere from 7% to 15%, about 3-5% of which comes from price (see below) versus LII/Carrier guidance for mid-single-digit growth. January for most has started off somewhat flat, not a major surprise and not a concern to us as this is one of the most unimportant months of the year (6% of annual volumes). Inventories remain below normal historical levels, but our sense is that they are normal in the context of standing demand trends. Electrical Equipment & Multi- Industry C. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA AC Drew Pierson (1-212) drew.a.pierson@jpmorgan.com Paul Mammola, CFA (1-212) paul.mammola@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Dry-ship R-22 buzz dominates and should be an upside driver for 211. As background, the EPA is allowing OEMs to ship condensing units charged with nitrogen that can then be re-charged with R-22 (the old, previously banned refrigerant) in the field, qualifying as a an aftermarket sale (within the rule). As per our note on November 5, 2, we have maintained that this will limit the dramatic demand destruction we saw on the R4 transition last year, given the R4 systems cost 2.5x what an R-22 unit would be, as a more robust replacement solution than a compressor fix. The consensus on the potential impact is coming into view with higher-end players saying they see around a 5% positive impact, while some of the more value-oriented OEMs see a 15-2% impact. A reported shortage of R4A refrigerant adds to the attraction of R-22. Either way, we agree with the high end here as we think consumer behavior is more likely to revert to a low-cost replacement versus the compressor fix of the past several years and we do not think contractors will stand idle and give business away. This is somewhat of a race to the bottom, though we think improved volumes are the paramount positive takeaway. Price discipline intact, adding to growth. Everyone seems to be raising price. Price increases of 5-7% have already been announced by Goodman, Trane, York, Carrier, LII, ICP, Nordyne, Rheem, Allied, and American Standard; for commercial it s more like 3-5% with Trane, American Standard, LII, Carrier, and York all announcing. Distributors were confident in their ability to pass these through, with the most conservative of those calling for 3% of price capture and one player noting he can get all of the increase. This goes dead against the bearish price/cost call. R4A refrigerant shortage a near-term driver of price for Fluorines players (HON and DuPont), R-22 volumes, and cost for distributors. An interesting tidbit was news of a shortage of 125A, a key raw material for the new R4A. While the bottleneck is likely resolved by 2H11, we see price for the refrigerant going up, more so for aftermarket sales than for OEMs with bulk deals. The other important dynamic here is to push some to pursue more R-22 product to make sure they are not short of a customer solution. This will be something to watch for the next several months. Commercial coming back faster than expected; bonus depreciation a positive wild card. Several distributors and component manufacturers talked about solid mid- to high-single-digit growth in commercial while none were talking about it being down. One player said they expected recovery in 2H11, but that they are seeing it now. Bonus depreciation for leasehold improvements applies to commercial HVAC, and this should be an upside driver as a de facto 35% tax credit. LII is already out with a high-single-digit forecast for 211 and Carrier saw a 14% increase in orders in 4Q. While Ingersoll may end up being conservative with guidance, similar numbers would be a big positive driver for

3 Mini-split (VRF) technology the talk of the show, but not yet an issue for the OEMs... Mini splits, with variable refrigerant flow technology, have grown dramatically and most distributors have embraced one or two of the Asian brands (Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, Daikin), though they still only represent 3% of the market. The payback here is interesting to both the consumer (very efficient) and contractor (only one day to install, maximizing labor hours). We see a more immediate impact in commercial markets, while it s likely to take time and more contractor buy-in to drive a real residential presence. In fact, one contractor we shared a pretzel-dog (standard convention floor fare) with told us he taught HVAC installation courses and the pitch from Mitsubishi on how to install was over his head. In other words, we likely have a long way to go before mini-splits hit big, though the process would likely be accelerated by a strategic move into the US, which we comment more on below. Chinese competition sparse, distribution not taking risk for minimal (~5%) price difference. Chinese competition is present, but not dominant, and every distributor noted the benefit of a 5% price advantage versus the risk of contractor/oem backlash is not attractive enough to take on a Chinese brand. If they come, much like the Japanese, they are likely going to have to acquire distribution making the US players more attractive. According to reports from Reuters Daikin is interested in US HVAC assets. The Daikin booth was packed, and the company is making a big push into the US with its new VRF technology. Daikin is known for its mini-split product, but they actually have an option for a VRF condensing unit for ducted systems which is half the size of the competitor s traditional box, with an enhanced, technologically improved air handler. A deal for a major US player with distribution would accelerate their push and we think it s likely only a matter of time before something could happen here. LII is a US residential HVAC manufacturer with 8% company-owned distribution and a unique contractor base that could push new technology, but there are other US HVAC manufacturers too like Carrier, Trane, and Goodman, the biggest US player by volume. While some believe that Daikin is a threat to the industry, many we talked to actually viewed an acquisition of a major player as a near-term benefit, given potential cultural challenges could potentially lead to lost share. There have also been some who have contended that Daikin likely would trash industry pricing. We confirmed that Daikin (Japanese, not Chinese) is a technology, not a price, player. Stay tuned. (Daikin Industries is covered by J.P. Morgan Japanese Industrial Electronics equity analyst Masashi Hayami and is rated Overweight.) 3

4 HON s $1B HVAC-related businesses positioned well for %+ growth in 211; EMR remains a leader in scroll. HON retains dominance in the controls space with a cutting-edge, remote-controlled offering that is driving %+ in the business in a flat 2 industry. This should only accelerate as replacement comes back (when most change out their control systems). Meanwhile, the Fluorines business stands to benefit in an outsized way from a surprising R4A shortage we see dramatic price benefits as a result, while the turn back to R-22 also should help mix given related aftermarket sales are more profitable than those to OEMs. We expect this business to also be up ~% in 211 after a strong 2. No real change from the EMR booth versus last year. They have a new variable-speed scroll, targeted at heating markets and a response to the Danfoss variable product that won awards last year. Danfoss and LG continue to make noise on the compressor side and we heard that Danfoss has pilots under way for their variablespeed scroll product, though it s likely going to take some time for them to put a dent in Copeland s dominant position. Emerson has some new controls, though they remain a distant second to Honeywell on this front, with little technology advantage as far as we could tell. Keep in mind that this was a North American show, however, and Emerson s dominance overseas is a big driver and perhaps makes the US market less important over time. Bottom line: Potential remains for %+ growth, higher than standing consensus. We remain positive on OEMs like LII and IR, while OW-rated WSO should also benefit, and we see beats to 4Q, along with upside in the out years on the pent-up demand thesis that is intact. 4

5 Companies Recommended in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on ) Daikin Industries (6367) (6367.T/ 2,851/Overweight), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR/$59.76/Neutral), Honeywell (HON/$56.94/Overweight), Ingersoll Rand (IR/$47.67/Overweight), Lennox International (LII/$5.46/Overweight), Watsco (WSO/$63.73/Overweight) Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Lead or Co-manager: J.P. Morgan acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for Lennox International within the past 12 months. Director: A senior employee, executive officer or director of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and/or J.P. Morgan is a director and/or officer of Honeywell. Beneficial Ownership (1% or more): J.P. Morgan beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of Daikin Industries (6367). Client of the Firm: Daikin Industries (6367) is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company non-investment banking securities-related service and non-securities-related services. Emerson Electric Co. is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related service and non-securities-related services. Honeywell is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related service and non-securities-related services. Ingersoll Rand is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related service and non-securities-related services. Lennox International is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related service and nonsecurities-related services. Watsco is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company non-investment banking securities-related service and non-securities-related services. Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received, in the past 12 months, compensation for investment banking services from Emerson Electric Co., Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, Lennox International. Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Daikin Industries (6367), Emerson Electric Co., Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, Lennox International. Non-Investment Banking Compensation: JPMS has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Daikin Industries (6367), Emerson Electric Co., Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, Lennox International, Watsco. An affiliate of JPMS has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Daikin Industries (6367), Emerson Electric Co., Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, Lennox International, Watsco. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is acting as adviser to Emerson Electric Company in relation to a possible offer for Chloride Group Plc; J.P.Morgan Cazenove is therefore an associate of Emerson Electric Company for the purposes of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 5

6 Daikin Industries (6367) (6367.T) Price Chart Price(Y) 9,57 7,975 6,38 4,785 3,19 1,595 Sep OW Y4,575 OW Y5,8OW Y6,2 OW Y3,15 OW Y4,68OW Y5,45 OW Y6,5 OW Y4,33 OW Y4,42 OW Y4,6OW Y6,OW Y6, OW Y5,3 OW Y3,8 Jun Mar Break in coverage Dec, 2-2, 2. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Dec Sep Jun (Y) 16-Feb- OW Feb- OW May- OW Jun- OW Aug- OW Sep- OW Nov- OW Dec- OW Feb- OW Apr- OW Aug- OW OW Nov- OW OW (Y) Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Price Chart Price UW $22 UW $32 N $45 UW $24 UW $29 UW $38 UW UW $27 UW $33 N $56 14-Nov- UW Dec- UW Mar- UW May- UW Aug- UW Sep- UW Nov- UW Jan- UW Feb- N Sep- N Apr Jan This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. 6

7 Honeywell (HON) Price Chart 8 N $26 N $38 OW $57 Price Apr Jan N $21 N $36 OW $56 N N $22 N $31 N $45 OW $53 11-Jan- N Dec- N Mar- N May- N Sep- N Dec- N Jan- N Mar- N Aug- OW Nov- OW Jan-11 OW This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Ingersoll Rand (IR) Price Chart Price Apr Jan N $12 OW $27 N $13 OW $25 OW $34OW $43 OW $47 N $15 N $19 OW $32 OW $38OW $46 -Dec- N Jan- N Mar- N May- N Jun- OW Sep- OW OW Jan- OW Apr- OW May- OW Aug- OW OW This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. 7

8 Lennox International (LII) Price Chart Price OW $51 OW $38 OW $5 OW $49 OW $44 N N $33 OW $35 OW $41 OW $ OW Apr- N N Jun- OW Sep- OW Jan- OW Apr- OW Aug- OW Nov- OW Dec- OW Apr Jan Break in coverage Dec 15, 2 - Jun 25, 2. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Watsco (WSO) Price Chart Price 51 OW $62 N OW $56 OW $66 -Apr- N Jun- OW Sep- OW Jan- OW Apr Jan Break in coverage Dec 15, 2 - Jun 25, 2. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenove s UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stock s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analyst s team s coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: C. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA: 3M (MMM), Danaher (DHR), Dover (DOV), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Generac (GNRC), General Electric Co. (GE), Honeywell (HON), Hubbell Inc. (HUBB), ITT Corp. (ITT), Ingersoll 8

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