August Baccalaureate Attainment: A National View of the Postsecondary Outcomes of Students Who Transfer from Two-Year to Four-Year Institutions

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1 5 August 2013 Baccalaureate Attainment: A National View of the Postsecondary Outcomes of Students Who Transfer from Two-Year to s

2 Signature Report Authors National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Doug Shapiro Afet Dundar Project on Academic Success, Indiana University Mary Ziskin Yi-Chen Chiang Jin Chen Autumn Harrell Vasti Torres This report was supported by a grant from the Lumina Foundation. Lumina Foundation, an Indianapolis-based private foundation, is committed to enrolling and graduating more students from college especially 21st century students: low-income students, students of color, first-generation students and adult learners. Lumina s goal is to increase the percentage of Americans who hold high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by Lumina pursues this goal in three ways: by identifying and supporting effective practice, through public policy advocacy, and by using our communications and convening power to build public will for change. For more information, log on to

3 5 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 4 Executive Summary... 5 Introduction... 9 Baccalaureate Attainment of Transfer Students as Key to College Completion Agenda, Stratification and Equity... 9 Previous Research on Completion of Two- to Four-Year Transfer Students...10 New Directions in Reporting Completions of Two- to Four-Year Transfer Students What to Find In This Report A Note on the Data...11 Results Outcomes Six-Years After Transfer Students Who Transferred to Four-Year Public Institutions Students Who Transferred to Four-Your Private Nonprofit Institutions Students Who Transferred to Four-Year Private For-Profit Institutions Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer by Carnegie Classification of Transfer Destination Institution...42 Supplemental Feature: Eight-Year Baccalaureate Outcomes of Students Who Began at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions Discussion Role of Two-Year Institutions in Baccalaureate Degree Attainment Baccalaureate Attainment by Type of Four-Year Transfer Destination Institution Baccalaureate Attainment by Carnegie Classification of Four-Year Transfer Destination Institution Baccalaureate Attainment Among Two-Year and Four-Year Starters Length of Enrollment in Two-year Institutions and Bachelor s Attainment Stop-Out Between Two-Year and Four-Year Enrollments and Baccalaureate Attainment Implications for Policymaking Institutional Policy Implications Public Policy Implications References Appendix A: Methodological Notes Appendix B: Coverage Table Appendix C: Results Tables BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

4 Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Peter Ewell and Patrick Kelly, of the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS), who reviewed an earlier draft of the report in the context of their wealth of knowledge on postsecondary issues. Their comments and suggestions were immensely helpful to the development of this report. The authors also would like to thank Don Hossler, Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at Indiana University Bloomington, for his thoughtful comments and suggestions; Diana Gillum, Vijaya Sampath, Jason DeWitt, and Travis Maciejewski from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, for their efforts to make the Clearinghouse data analysis-ready and sharing their deep knowledge of the data with the authors; and the members of the Project on Academic Success team, Eunkyoung Park, Sarah Martin and Tomika Ferguson for their efforts and thoughtful comments. Of course, any remaining errors or omissions are solely the responsibility of the authors. 4

5 Executive Summary 5 Understanding the pathways and college completion outcomes of students who transfer from two-year to four-year institutions is of high importance to the national college completion agenda. This importance stems from priorities set for both equity and policy effectiveness. While the college completion agenda encompasses postsecondary credentials very broadly and supports degree attainment from two-year institutions, four-year baccalaureate attainment remains critical to student aspirations, institutional performance and national goals. Moreover, strong equity implications lie in the outcomes of two-year to four-year transfer students because of the overrepresentation of low-income students and students of color in two-year institutions. In this new report from the Signature series, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, in partnership with the Indiana University Project on Academic Success, presents findings on two- to four-year transfer students, focusing on their baccalaureate completion within six years after transfer. The report examines baccalaureate completion and persistence outcomes for students who transferred with and without completing a two-year credential. Completion and persistence outcomes are also reported by: Gender, Enrollment intensity, Transfer institution type, Length of pretransfer enrollment at a two-year institution, and Time lapse between two- and four-year institution enrollments. In an additional new direction, the report also offers results by the Carnegie classification of the transfer institution. Finally, a special analysis provides a side-by-side comparison of the eight- and nine-year completion rates of transfer students to those of students who started at a four-year institution. A few of the main points that emerged from the study are summarized below. THE ROLE OF TWO-YEAR INSTITUTIONS IN BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT While questions certainly remain about equitable access to a bachelor s degree for students who enter two-year institutions, the report s findings provide evidence that the majority of students who transfer are successful in pursuing a four-year degree demonstrating the key role two-year institutions can play in increasing the number of students who graduate with bachelor s degrees. Our analysis showed that of those students who transferred, about 62 percent earned a bachelor s degree or higher within six years after transfer. Another eight percent were still enrolled and making steady progress toward baccalaureate attainment. Students who transferred with a two-year degree or certificate had a much higher baccalaureate completion rate than those who transferred without a two-year credential (72 percent and 56 percent, respectively). The gap in six-year baccalaureate completion rates was likewise large (26 percentage points) between students who transferred to a four-year institution within one year of their most recent enrollment at a two-year institution and students who transferred after a stop-out that lasted more than one year. Baccalaureate Attainment by Type of Four-Year Transfer Destination Institution Analysis of the four-year transfer destination institutions showed that students who transferred to a four-year public institution had the highest baccalaureate completion rate (65 percent) six years after transfer, followed by those who transferred to a four-year private nonprofit institution BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 5

6 (60 percent), and those who transferred to a four-year private for-profit institution (35 percent). The higher completion rate at four-year public institutions may be related to the number of credits students were able to transfer from two-year institutions because of articulation agreements in place in many states. It could also be related to partnerships between four-year public institutions and community colleges that may likewise smooth the transition for transfer students. Baccalaureate Attainment by Carnegie Classification of Four-Year Transfer Destination Institution The majority of two-year to four-year transfer students in this cohort went to a Master s (50 percent) or Research/Doctoral Granting (40 percent) institution. Students who transferred to a Research/Doctoral Granting institution had the highest completion rate (69 percent), followed by those who transferred to Baccalaureate Arts and Sciences Institutions (60 percent) and to Master s institutions (59 percent). These differences may be due to the generally better academic preparation of students who transfer to Research/Doctoral Granting institutions. The higher rates may also be partially attributable to the resources these institutions make available to transfer students (e.g., transfer student orientation programs and other support services). BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT AMONG TWO-YEAR AND FOUR-YEAR STARTERS The comparison of the eight-year completion rate of students who began at a two-year institution and transferred to a four-year institution to that of students who began at a four-year institution revealed a higher completion rate for transfer students. The eight-year bachelor s degree completion rate for two-year starter transfer students was 71 percent, which was six percentage points higher than that of four-year starters. However, disaggregating the results by institution type showed that only at four-year public institutions did students who transferred in from a two-year institution have a higher eight-year completion rate than their peers who started at the four-year institution (74 percent and 63 percent, respectively). Students who transferred to four-year private nonprofit institutions and private for-profit institutions had lower completion rates (68 percent and 31 percent, respectively) than those who started in four-year private nonprofit and private for-profit institutions (71 percent and 42 percent, respectively). It is important to note that the two-year starter transfer cohort in this comparison is a selected group. These students started at a two-year institution in fall 2003 and transferred to a four-year institution sometime in the academic year, suggesting that many of them were on a steady track toward completion without periods of stop-out. Students who stopped out, never transferred, or transferred after more than two years were excluded by definition. Many may have had particularly defined goals set on the baccalaureate level, and are likely to have taken fewer developmental courses as a group than a general cohort of two-year starters. Nevertheless, these patterns further reinforce a main finding of this report: once students transfer successfully, they complete degrees and persist at a relatively high rate. The eight- and nine-year outcomes reported also suggest that, for students who transfer from two-year to four-year institutions, completion rates measured over six years from the time of entry into postsecondary education are likely not an accurate representation of eventual baccalaureate attainment. IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICYMAKING Institutional Policy Implications This report shows that some particular pathways of transfer students may be associated with barriers to baccalaureate attainment. Two-year institutions may want to make students aware of the potential 6

7 5 relationship between the empirical milestones explored in this report and baccalaureate attainment, to help them take steps to alleviate possible negative effects of choosing a particular pathway. In this era of accountability, when certificate or degree completion has become a key metric for institutional effectiveness, community college policymakers may want to seek out institutional policy levers for increasing the proportion of students who complete their degree before transferring, and who transfer immediately upon completing. On the other hand, students who do not seek a degree or certificate from a two-year institution before transferring may benefit from more careful guidance on how to plan and monitor their course taking so as to complete more courses that will count towards bachelor s degree requirements upon transfer. These findings may also give four-year institutions a better understanding of the pretransfer experience of the transfer students they serve and the kind of differentiated support they need. For example, those who had a longer stop-out before enrolling in a four-year institution may need more assistance because they are transitioning not only into a four-year institution, but also back to postsecondary education in general. Public Policy Implications The findings have important implications for public policymaking as well. The results reinforce the importance of the transfer function of community colleges not only in contributing to individuals success in postsecondary education, but also in helping to achieve the national goals for college completion. The findings also suggest areas where policymaking should be focused. For example, given that two-thirds of the transfer students in this cohort transferred without the benefit of a two-year credential, policymaking may want to focus on making it easier for students to align coursework with anticipated bachelor s degree requirements and transfer more credit hours. State and federal policymakers should also consider creating incentives for students to complete degrees at the two-year institution before transferring, and to avoid stopping out for extended periods in between the enrollments in the two-year and the four-year institution. In closing, while barriers to access and success still exist, the report underscores a point that often is lost in current public policy debates on postsecondary student success: the majority of students who transfer from two- to four-year institutions are successful. This finding further supports efforts to enable improved access to two- to four-year transfers and encourages national calls for state policies and institutional practices that support more community college students who aspire to this pathway. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 7

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9 Introduction 5 BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT OF TRANSFER STUDENTS AS KEY TO COLLEGE COMPLETION AGENDA, STRATIFICATION AND EQUITY Understanding the pathways and college completion outcomes of students who transfer from two-year to four-year institutions is of high importance to the national college completion agenda. This importance stems from priorities set for both equity and policy effectiveness. The question of baccalaureate attainment is prevalent in the ways institutions, policy makers, and students think about the role and function of community colleges. This expectation bears out, for example, in the expectations of students enrolling in two-year institutions (Doyle, 2009). More than 42% of U.S. college students enrolled in Fall 2012 were enrolled in two-year public institutions (AACC, 2012). NCES studies and other research using national data show that over one-third of these students reported plans to transfer to a four-year college or university (Horn & Nevill, 2006). Among entering student cohorts, students report expectations of pursuing bachelor s degrees at an even higher rate of 70 percent (Bailey et al., 2006). Questions of the reliability of self-reports notwithstanding, it is important to consider transfer from two- to four-year institutions as a pathway that is important to the college completion agenda and to hundreds of thousands of students nationwide (Goldrick-Rab, 2012). Institutions, as well as researchers and policymakers, have called for more differentiated examinations of completion outcomes of students who enroll first in community colleges (Baldwin, Bensimon, Dowd & Kleiman, 2011; Bragg & Durham, 2012; Doyle, 2009; Mullin, 2011; Offenstein & Schulock, 2009). This need is seen by policy makers and researchers as important for questions of both institutional effectiveness and equity (Bragg & Durham, 2012; Offenstein & Schulock, 2009). The college completion agenda encompasses postsecondary credentials very broadly. Nevertheless, baccalaureate attainment remains important for national economic competitiveness and the economic well-being of individuals as the wage premium for a bachelor s degree is greater than that for a two-year credential. Moreover, recent research has shown that the two- to four-year transfer students completion outcomes have clear implications for equity (Bound, Lovenheim & Turner, 2009; Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Doyle, 2009; Goldrick-Rab, 2010). As highlighted in recent explorations of the supply-side contributions to low graduation rates, the increasing stratification of postsecondary enrollments has profound ramifications for equity and for the college attainment of the disproportionate numbers of low-income students and students of color concentrated in institutions, such as community colleges, that face tightening constraints on resources (Bound, Lovenheim, & Turner, 2009; Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Goldrick-Rab, 2010; Goldrick-Rab & Pfeffer, 2009; Melguizo & Dowd, 2009). Jenkins and Weiss (2011) have shown, further, that low-income students were more likely to enter into concentrations and enrollment patterns that were associated with lower completion outcomes. Goldrick-Rab (2010) gathers evidence from a comprehensive review of studies to conclude that institutional differentiation and stratified enrollment patterns in themselves represent a prime barrier to degree completion (p. 445). With weighty implications for policy and practice, equity and effectiveness, and college completion overall, two- to four-year transfer student success is an important area for new research. Building a more accurate and comprehensive view of these students enrollment patterns and completion outcomes is a necessary step toward achieving pressing policy goals and social principles. The Clearinghouse data presented in this report is our attempt to contribute to filling this gap. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 9

10 PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON COMPLETION OF TWO- TO FOUR-YEAR TRANSFER STUDENTS Current scholarship and policy reports note that the scarcity of data sources capable of linking student-level data across institutions and states has meant that an extensive research record has yet to emerge to shed light on the baccalaureate attainment of students who enter community colleges (Bailey, Leinbach & Jenkins, 2006; Goldrick-Rab, 2010; Horn & Radwin, 2012; Mullin, 2011). Nevertheless, a number of key studies have shown that while questions about equitable access to bachelor s degrees for students who enter two-year institutions may remain (Bound & Turner, 2010; Goldrick-Rab, 2010), students who transfer from two- to four-year institutions show high baccalaureate attainment rates (Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Doyle, 2006, 2009; Hoachlander, Sikora & Horn, 2003; Lavin & Hyllegard, 1996; Melguizo & Dowd, 2009). In an analysis using Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) data, Hoachlander, Sikora, and Horn (2003) found that about 29 percent of all first-time community college students transferred to a four-year institution within six years. While the study s results may reflect problematic patterns in terms of access to four-year institutions (the 29 percent who transferred, for example, represented only about one-half of the students who had reported an intention to pursue a bachelor s degree), Hoachlander and colleagues research showed that once students transferred successfully, high proportions of them completed a degree. The authors found that about 8 in 10 of these transfer students either had completed a bachelor s degree or were still enrolled at a four-year institution at the end of six years. Previous studies further highlight important questions and dimensions that should be explored in emerging work on this area. Accounting for students intentions in describing enrollment and success outcomes, for example, raises complex questions for measurement (Bragg & Durham, 2012). Because students intended degrees have been shown to change after entering college, several studies point to the need to use empirical milestones instead of relying solely on self-reported intentions (Calcagno, Crosta, Bailey, & Jenkins, 2006; Goldrick-Rab, 2010; Moore, Shulock & Offenstein, 2009; Offenstein & Shulock, 2009). This report seeks to contribute to the exploration of empirical milestones, such as pretransfer degree-completion, length of enrollment in the two-year sector, and stop-out before enrollment in four-year institutions as a way to extend our understanding of students two-year to four-year college transfer pathways. Previous research also shows that gender, age, and enrollment intensity are all associated with students two- to four-year transfer pathways, and in ways that are complex and interrelated. For example, Jacobs and King (2002) conducted a study of these patterns and found that part-time enrollment, associated with older students increased likelihood of working full-time and having children or other dependents, was a stronger factor than age in lower completion rates. NEW DIRECTIONS IN REPORTING COMPLETIONS OF TWO- TO FOUR-YEAR TRANSFER STUDENTS National higher education policy discussions are increasingly focused on expanding the scope and improving the accuracy of national measures of college completion. These efforts center in part on better capturing the complex pathways of students who enroll in multiple postsecondary institutions on the way to completing degrees (e.g., Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance, 2008, 2012; U.S. Department of Education, 2011, 2012). 10

11 5 As we refine our definitions of postsecondary student success, new analyses on the baccalaureate attainment of two- to four-year transfer students in particular are needed. As this report illustrates, the Clearinghouse data can inform institutions and policymakers on this issue by allowing researchers to follow students as they move from institution to institution. In addition, the Clearinghouse data provide a longitudinal view of expanded student cohorts (e.g., traditional-age students vs. adult learners; full-time vs. part-time) that are at the center of proposed changes emerging from the debate on measuring college completion in the U.S. Clearinghouse data also allow researchers to describe student pathways in more detail and complexity, including transfer patterns, persistence, and certificate or degree completion regardless of level, and at any institution, not just the institution of first enrollment. WHAT TO FIND IN THIS REPORT To reach a more comprehensive understanding of current progress toward national completion goals, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, in partnership with the Project on Academic Success, has launched the Signature Report Series, highlighting new data on pressing policy issues. In this report we present our findings on two- to four-year transfer students 1 focusing on baccalaureate completion within six years of transfer as the primary outcome of interest. Baccalaureate completion rates are also presented separately for those who transferred with and without prior completion of a two-year credential. In addition, we examine completion and persistence outcomes broken out meaningfully by transfer institution type, time spent enrolled at a two-year institution, and time lapse between two- and four-year institution enrollments. We further explore results disaggregated by gender and enrollment intensity. In an additional new direction, the report also offers results by the Carnegie classification of the transfer institution. Finally, a special analysis provides a side-by-side comparison of eight- and nine-year completion rates of transfer students and students who started at a four-year institution. A NOTE ON THE DATA Data Source The data for this report were drawn from the StudentTracker SM and DegreeVerify SM services, administered by the National Student Clearinghouse (The Clearinghouse), which tracks 95 percent of college enrollments nationwide across all postsecondary institutions, including all institution types two-year and four-year institutions, public and private institutions, and nonprofit and for-profit institutions. In order to ensure the most accurate possible representation of student outcomes for the study cohort, the results reported here are weighted according to formulas described in Appendix A using the coverage rate for each institution type (sector and control). A complete explanation of national coverage rates and the weights used to ensure that results reflect enrollment and completion by sector and control can be found in Appendices A and B. The student outcomes captured in this report are based on student-level data representing an unduplicated headcount of students across all institutions, a feature of the Clearinghouse data that distinguishes them from many other data sources, including the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), that may not accurately capture the complexity of postsecondary pathways because other data sources are not structured to identify multiple enrollments by individual students. 1 Throughout this report we mostly use transfer from two-year to four-year institutions. It should be noted, however, that the vast majority (99 percent) of transfer students in this study transferred from two-year public institutions. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 11

12 The capability of StudentTracker to link enrollment records across institutions nationally allows researchers to follow students longitudinally as they move from institution to institution, producing a fuller picture of college persistence and completion. COMING UP IN THE NEXT SIGNATURE REPORT The Clearinghouse s sixth Signature Report will focus on college completions, examining completion rates by gender, age, and enrollment intensity. Completion rates will also be reported for students starting at different types of institutions, including whether the students finished at the same institution or somewhere else. The results summarized in this report give a national overview of two- to four-year transfer students baccalaureate completion, showing the percentage of transfer students who completed at various types of four-year institutions. This completion rate includes bachelor s degrees and higher completed at four-year institutions. About one percent of students in the cohort completed an associate s degree at a four-year institution. These completions were not included in the figures reported under four-year degree completions. Although Clearinghouse data contain demographic information on students, the coverage for these data is uneven. The report, therefore, includes exploratory analyses broken out by gender, based on reported and imputed values, but does not examine completion by race/ethnicity. (Discussion of imputation process is included in Appendix A.) Cohort Definition The cohort examined in this study is made up of transfer students who started their postsecondary education at a two-year institution and transferred to a four-year institution at some point during the academic year. Two- to four-year transfer status was established by confirming that a student fulfilled all of the following conditions: 1. Enrolled in a four-year Title IV institution for the first time during the academic year (i.e. no prior enrollment or completion at a four-year institution); 2. Had at least one enrollment at a two-year college within the four years prior to the first enrollment at a four-year institution ( prior two-year enrollment ); 3. Was age 18 or older when enrolled at the two-year institution; and 4. Had at least one non-summer enrollment at a four-year institution; Throughout this report, we examine college completion rates for the academic year two- to four-year transfer cohort. The study follows this cohort through August 12, 2012, and highlights six-year student outcomes, including completion of a bachelor s degree or higher and continuing enrollment (persistence) after transfer to the four-year sector. Completions were identified using a combination of degree award records submitted by institutions, as part of their participation in DegreeVerify, and StudentTracker enrollment records indicating degree completions. 12

13 5 Figure A Transfer Cohort: Four-Year Transfer Destination Institutions* 7.8% 19.7% Public Private Nonprofit Private For-Profit 72.5% *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table A. Figure A shows the transfer cohort (N=320,911) broken out by type of starting institution. The largest percentage of the transfer cohort (72.5 percent, n=232,542) transferred to four-year public institutions, followed by four-year private nonprofit institutions, with 19.7 percent (n=63,162), and four-year private for-profit institutions, enrolling 7.8 percent (n=25,171) of the cohort. It should be noted that these unadjusted figures may reflect different levels of participation in Clearinghouse data by institution type (coverage bias). In , Clearinghouse participants represented 95 percent of enrollments in public four-year institutions, and 85 percent of private nonprofit four-year enrollment. In contrast, four-year private for-profit institutions had a participation rate representing 67 percent of enrollments in BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 13

14 Figure B Transfer Cohort: Four-Year Transfer Destination Institutions, Adjusted for Coverage* 10.6% 20.8% Public Private Nonprofit Private For-Profit 68.6% *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table B. Figure B shows the distribution of the transfer cohort by institution type of the transfer destination, adjusting for these coverage differences. Because this adjustment only minimally affects overall results for postsecondary and baccalaureate outcomes, and does not affect results by sector at all, results highlighted in the report are weighted for coverage bias related to outcomes but not for initial transfer destination. 14

15 5 Figure C Transfer Cohort: Distribution by Enrollment Intensity 37.0% 54.7% 8.4% Exclusively Full-Time Exclusively Part-Time Mixed Enrollment *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table C. Figure C shows the distribution of the study cohort by enrollment intensity. A key point to note here is that more than half of the cohort (54.7 percent) had mixed enrollment; that is, during the study period, they enrolled full time for some terms and part time for other terms (see Appendix A for further detail). More than one-third (37 percent) of the students in the transfer cohort enrolled exclusively full time after transfer, while just 8.4 percent enrolled part time throughout the study period. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 15

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17 Results 5 OUTCOMES SIX YEARS AFTER TRANSFER The results presented in this report explore the six-year outcomes of transfer students who began their postsecondary education at a two-year institution and later transferred to a four-year institution during the academic year. Throughout the sections that follow, the report focuses on completion of bachelor s degrees or higher at four-year institutions as the primary outcome of interest. The near-census student enrollment data available from the National Student Clearinghouse enable researchers to track student postsecondary pathways across institutions, sectors, and state lines. Using Clearinghouse data, we present a national picture of baccalaureate attainment by two- to four-year transfer students. We further explore postsecondary outcomes for students by attainment of a pretransfer two-year degree or certificate, by length of pretransfer enrollment in two-year colleges, and by stop-out before transferring. In a new direction within the Signature Report series, these results are also explored by gender and Carnegie Classification of transfer destination institution. Overall results for the transfer cohort are presented first. Subsequent sections present results for students who transferred into four-year public institutions, four-year private nonprofit institutions, and four-year private for-profit institutions. A supplemental feature presents an analysis of the eight- and nine-year baccalaureate completion rates of first-time students who began their postsecondary education at a four-year institution in fall The results are provided alongside the outcomes of students who began at a two-year institution in fall 2003 and transferred to a four-year institution during the academic year. Figure Transfer Cohort: Postsecondary Outcomes Six Years After Transfer* (n=320,911) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 61.6% 40% 30% 20% 26.6% 10% 0% Completion at Four-Year Institution** 7.8% Still Enrolled at Four-Year Institution 4.0% Completion or Still Enrolled in Two-Year Sector Not Enrolled (At Any Institution) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 1. **This completion rate includes bachelor s degrees and higher completed at four-year institutions. About 1% of students in the cohort completed an associate s degree at a four-year institution. These completions were not included in the four-year degree completions shown here. Figure 1 shows the six-year postsecondary outcomes for the transfer cohort, indicating a baccalaureate completion rate of 61.6 percent. When students who were still enrolled at four-year colleges and universities at the end of BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 17

18 the study period are considered, an additional 7.8 percent can be seen as persisting toward bachelor s degree completion. While a small percentage returned to a two-year institution after transferring to a four-year institution, a little more than one quarter of the transfer cohort had stopped out of postsecondary education without any completion at the end of the six-year study period. 100% 90% 80% 70% Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Gender* (n=285,033)** 60% 50% 62.4% 60.6% Female (n=159,004) 40% Male (n=126,029) 30% 20% 10% 0% Completion at ** 7.9% 7.5% Still Enrolled at 29.7% 31.8% Not Enrolled (At Any ) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 2. **Results for students with gender unknown are not included in the figure. Figure 2 shows six-year baccalaureate outcomes for the transfer cohort by gender. The results show similar rates for both women and men for baccalaureate completion and persistence in the four-year sector. Female students completed degrees from four-year institutions at a rate slightly higher than that of male students (62.4 and 60.6 percent, respectively). In addition, similar percentages of women (7.9 percent) and men (7.5 percent) were still enrolled in the four-year sector at the end of the study period. Among the transfer cohort, approximately 70 percent of both women and men either completed a four-year degree or were still enrolled at a four-year institution at the end of the study period. The consistency of results across gender underscore the finding that once students successfully transfer from two- to four-year institutions, they perform well as a group on important academic success measures such as completion and persistence. These results further highlight just one of many avenues in which two-year colleges contribute to student success and provide important resources for students varied pathways through postsecondary education. Across the three categories of enrollment intensity that we examined, the differences we found in baccalaureate completion rates reflect the intuitive pattern whereby part-time students are less likely to complete a bachelor s degree within six years than are students who enroll full time for some or all of their terms (see Figure 3). 18

19 5 Students who enrolled exclusively full time after transfer completed four-year degrees at a much higher rate (80.2 percent) than those who enrolled exclusively part time (24.5 percent) or who had mixed enrollment (55 percent). However, mixed enrollment students completed at more than twice the rate of exclusively part time students. As part-time enrollment naturally implies longer time to degree, the higher completion rates of both exclusively full-time and mixed enrollment students likely reflect broader patterns in those groups of shorter time to degree and more consistent overall progress toward completion. Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Enrollment Intensity* 100% 90% 18.0% 66.7% 33.2% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 1.8% 80.2% 8.8% 11.7% 55.0% Completion at Still Enrolled at Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 24.5% 10% 0% Exclusively Full- Time (n=118,058) Exclusively Part- Time (n=26,787) Mixed Enrollment (n=174,570) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 3. Enrollment intensity is based on enrollments after transfer. Figure 4 shows the six-year baccalaureate outcomes for students with and without a pretransfer two-year degree or certificate. It should be noted that nearly two-thirds of the transfer cohort transferred to a four-year institution without a two-year degree or certificate. This is consistent with our findings from previous Signature Reports, which showed that a majority of transfer students transfer from two- to four-year institutions without any credential. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 19

20 Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, of Students With/Without Pretransfer Two-Year Degree or Certificate * 100% 90% 22.9% 35.1% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 5.6% 71.6% 9.0% 55.9% Completion at Still Enrolled at Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 10% 0% With Pretransfer Two-Year Degree/Cert. (n=115,769) Without Pretransfer Two- Year Degree/Cert. (n=205,141) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 4. As shown in Figure 4, students who completed a two-year degree or certificate prior to transferring to a four-year institution graduated with a bachelor s degree at a higher rate more than 15 percentage points higher than those who did not. These different rates of completion could reflect a pattern of transfer students who have more credit hours or courses aligned with bachelor s degree requirements completing sooner than transfer students with fewer overall credits or fewer credits counting toward majors. Furthermore, the pattern may reflect, the smoothing of pathways via articulation agreements between two-year and four-year institutions since, in light of these agreements, students who complete a two-year degree or certificate at a two-year college may be more likely to have their course of study approved. Examining these findings a bit deeper, Figures 5.1 and 5.2 show six-year outcomes for the transfer cohort by length of pretransfer enrollment at a two-year institution and whether or not a student obtained a two-year degree or certificate before transferring. Before highlighting these students six year baccalaureate outcomes we should note that the distribution of students across subgroups with various lengths of pretransfer enrollment at a two-year institution was very different for those who obtained a two-year degree or certificate, before transferring and those who did not. Among those who transferred without a two-year degree or certificate the proportions of students who enrolled in a two year institution for one to three terms 1, four to six terms, or more than six terms were similar. Among those who transferred with a two-year degree or certificate, however, well over half spent more than six terms in the two-year institution (For more details see Appendix C, Table E). In general, as noted above, baccalaureate completion rates were higher for students who transferred with a two-year credential in hand. Among students who enrolled four to six terms at a community college prior to transferring, for example, those who transferred with a two-year credential completed bachelor s degrees within six years at a higher rate (75.9 percent) than did students who transferred with no degree or certificate (59.6 percent). Interestingly, among students with a pretransfer two-year degree or certificate, those who stayed at a two-year institution more than six terms before transferring had a lower four-year degree completion rate (69.9 percent) than those who transferred after four to six terms at a two-year institution (75.9 percent). By contrast, of students without a pretransfer two-year degree or certificate, those who transferred after more than six terms showed a slightly higher four-year degree attainment rate (61.1 percent) than those who transferred after four to six terms (59.6 percent). 1 A term in this study is any term that an institution reported a given student as enrolled, and can be of various length. 20

21 5 Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, of Students With Pretransfer Two-Year Degree or Certificate, by Length of Enrollment at Two-Year Institution * (n=115,769) 100% 90% 30.1% 19.8% 23.9% 80% 70% 60% 50% 7.7% 62.2% 4.3% 75.9% 6.1% 69.9% Completion at Still Enrolled at 40% 30% Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 10% 0% One to Three Terms (n=6,649) Four to Six Terms (n=40,421) More Than Six Terms (n=68,700) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 5. Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, of Students Without Pretransfer Two-Year Degree or Certificate, by Length of Enrollment at Two-Year Institution * (n=205,141) 100% 90% 40.8% 32.2% 31.0% 80% 70% 60% 50% 10.6% 8.2% 59.6% 7.9% 61.1% Completion at Still Enrolled at 40% 30% 48.6% Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 10% 0% One to Three Terms (n=76,768) Four to Six Terms (n=69,316) More Than Six Terms (n=59,058) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 5. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 21

22 As we note in the introduction, stop-out between enrollments in the two-year and four-year sectors was included as one facet of students transfer pathways. Overall results for the transfer cohort on this question are reviewed next. Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Time Between Most Recent Two-Year Enrollment and Transfer to * 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 66.3% 50% 40% 30% 40.0% 47.7% Within One Year (n=263,587) More Than One Year (n=57,324) 20% 27.0% 10% 0% Completion at 6.8% 12.3% Still Enrolled at Not Enrolled (At Any ) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 6. Students who transferred to a four-year institution within one year of their most recent enrollment at a two-year institution completed a four-year degree at a markedly higher rate than students who transferred after more than one year (66.3 and 40 percent respectively, as shown in Figure 6). Based on these results, it appears that students who moved into the four-year sector with a brief or no stop-out were more successful at maintaining academic momentum and completing a bachelor s degree than those who transferred after more than a one-year stop-out period. The higher persistence rate among students with a longer delay between their two- and four-year enrollments (12.3 percent versus 6.8 percent for students who transferred within one year) further suggests that students who transfer after more than a one-year stop-out are on a longer timeline for degree completion. At the end of the study period, slightly more than one in four students who transferred within one year was not enrolled in any four-year institution. In contrast, nearly half of those who experienced longer delays between their enrollments at a two-year institution and a four-year institution were no longer enrolled. 22

23 5 Figure Transfer Cohort: Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Institution Type of Transfer Destination Institution * (n=320,875) 100% 90% 28.1% 31.8% 51.4% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 7.1% 64.8% 8.0% 60.2% 13.5% 35.1% Completion at ** Still Enrolled at Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 10% 0% Public (n=232,542) Private Nonprofit (n=63,162) Private For-Profit (n=25,170) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 7. **This completion rate includes bachelor s degrees and higher completed at four-year institutions. Next, we examine the transfer cohort s baccalaureate outcomes by institution type. As shown in Figure 7, more than 70 percent of the students who transferred to public four-year institutions completed a bachelor s degree or were still enrolled at the end of the study period (64.8 and 7.1 percent respectively, totaling 71.9 percent). Compared to students who transferred to four-year public colleges and universities, students who transferred to private nonprofit institutions showed a lower rate of completion (60.2 percent), but a slightly higher rate of persistence without completion at the end of the study (8.0 percent). The overall baccalaureate completion rate for students who transferred from two-year institutions to four-year private for-profit institutions was lower (35.1 percent) than for other institution types. However, an additional 13.5 percent of these transfer students were still enrolled in the four-year sector in the last year of the study. BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 23

24 STUDENTS WHO TRANSFERRED TO FOUR-YEAR PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS In this section, we focus on the largest subgroup within the transfer cohort who transferred from two-year institutions to fouryear public institutions. Figure 8. Students Who Transferred from Two-Year Institutions to Four-Year Public Institutions in : Postsecondary Outcomes Six Years After Transfer * (n=232,542) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 64.8% 50% 40% 30% 20% 24.5% 10% 0% Completion at Four-Year Institution** 7.1% Still Enrolled at Four-Year Institution 3.6% Completion or Still Enrolled in Two-Year Sector Not Enrolled (At Any Institution) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 8. **Among those who transferred to four-year public institutions, about 1%percent completed an associate s degree at a four-year institution. These students were not included in the four-year degree completions shown here. Figure 8 shows the six-year postsecondary outcomes for students who transferred from two-year institutions to four-year public institutions. Four-year public institutions were the transfer destination of the largest subgroup (more than 70 percent) within the transfer cohort. Nearly two thirds of students (64.8 percent) who transferred from two-year colleges to four-year public institutions completed a bachelor s degree within six years. An additional 7.1 percent were still enrolled in the four-year sector after six years. While a small percentage (3.6 percent) returned to a two-year sector and completed or continued there, 24.5 percent were not enrolled at any institution at the end of the study. 24

25 5 Figure 9. Students Who Transferred from Two-Year Institutions to Four-Year Public Institutions in : Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Gender* 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 66.1% 63.3% 50% Female (n=110,629) 40% Male (n=95,356) 30% 20% 26.8% 29.7% 10% 0% Completion at 7.1% 7.1% Still Enrolled at Not Enrolled (At Any ) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 9. Results for students with gender unknown are not included in the figure. Figure 9 focuses further on baccalaureate outcomes by gender of students who transferred from a two-year institution to a four-year public institution. Similar to the overall results outlined in the previous section, the outcomes for students who entered the four-year sector via public institutions were not that different for women and men. Female students completed degrees in four-year institutions at a rate 2.8 percentage points higher than male students (66.1 compared to 63.3 percent). The rates of continued enrollment in the four-year sector were equal (7.1 percent for both men and women). BACCALAUREATE ATTAINMENT: A NATIONAL VIEW OF THE POSTSECONDARY OUTCOMES OF STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER FROM TWO-YEAR TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 25

26 Figure 10. Students Who Transferred from Two-Year Institutions to Four-Year Public Institutions in : Baccalaureate Outcomes Six Years After Transfer, by Enrollment Intensity* 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 14.9% 1.6% 83.6% 63.1% 24.4% 13.5% 62.1% Completion at Still Enrolled at 40% 30% 12.1% Not Enrolled (At Any ) 20% 24.8% 10% 0% Exclusively Full-Time (n=82,400) Exclusively Part-Time (n=19,291) Mixed Enrollment (n=130,053) *This figure is based on data shown in Appendix C, Table 10. Enrollment intensity is based on enrollments after transfer. As shown in Figure 10, results for students who transferred to four-year public institutions strongly reflect the pattern shown in the overall results above (see Figure 3). Full-time students in this group completed at a far higher rate (83.6 percent) than did part-time students (24.8) and those with mixed enrollment (62.1 percent). In addition, as in the overall results above, the completion rate for mixed enrollment students was notably higher than that of the part-time students. As noted above, these differences likely reflect the intuitive pattern of mixed enrollment and part-time students pursuing degrees over longer timelines than those who enroll exclusively full-time. 26