Overcoming uncertainties regarding newly discovered species resilience to habitat disturbance in the context of EIA
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1 Overcoming uncertainties regarding newly discovered species resilience to habitat disturbance in the context of EIA Jason Willey ERM, Inc.
2 The Issue Why do we care about uncertainty? Uncertainty in an ESIA affects all stakeholders adversely, but in different ways. So what to do about new-toscience species? 2
3 Issue summary Proposed greenfield bauxite mine Catfish protection critical Very sparse data on catfish Turbidity is very low in all streams at Nassau Habitat requirements have been assumed to be existing conditions Are physiochemical conditions (water quality, habitat) limiting conditions for the Nassau catfish? What are alternatives are available to reduce uncertainty? 3 If they are limiting conditions, can surrogate species be used to assess their relationship to turbidity and stream conditions related to sedimentation (such as embeddedness and morphology)?
4 Hypothesis Environmental surrogates will: -be intolerant of environmental conditions that differ significantly from those on Nassau -there would be an apparent threshold beyond which the surrogates did not occur. If true, then it is likely that the surrogates tolerances are similar to the Nassau fishes tolerances, and the surrogates can tell us enough to compensate for some uncertainty. If not true, then the surrogates aren t instructive for our ESIA. 4
5 The search for surrogates begins. Unnamed stream, Great Smoky Mountain National Park Ijskreek, Nassau Plateau 5
6 Surrogate selection process Step 1. Initial screening identified ~ seven genera constituting about 120 species Step 2. Literature-based review Rare fishes from Nassau Qualitative behavioral information Feeding strategy Reproductive potential Spawning strategy Microhabitat preference Proxy candidates from initial screening..narrowed search to 20 species. Step 3. Water quality-based approach Rare fishes from Nassau Data from point of capture: Turbidity DO ph Temperature Proxy candidates from literature review..narrowed search to 4 species. 6
7 Comparison of Surrogates to Rare Species Least Sensitive Harttiella spp. Central stonerolller (Cornell U) Pseudencistrus sp. Longnose dace (Cornell U) Blue Ridge sculpin (Fishbase) Lithoxus pallidimaculatus Most Sensitive Greenside darter (Cornell U) 7
8 Water Quality and Abundance data Data sources and literature MBSS EMAP Literature Data used Species abundance at each sampling event Water quality at sampling event 8
9 For each species Frequency Frequency Blue Ridge Sculpin Histogram ln(abundance) More bin Frequency Cumulative % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Blue Ridge Sculpin Histogram ln(turbidity) More bin % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Evaluated range, mean, distribution etc for each physical and chemical habitat parameter (descriptive/diagnostic statistics) Evaluated relationships between abundance, abundance by catchment area, etc to different physical and chemical parameters Completed covariance and correlation assessments 9 Frequency Cumulative %
10 Presence/absence as a function of turbidity The first part of our hypothesis was that the surrogates would not be present in water quality much worse than what we find at Nassau Turbidity at Nassau plateau averages roughly 5 to 10 NTU 10
11 Blue ridge sculpin 11
12 Greenside darter 12
13 Longnose dace 13
14 Central stoneroller 14
15 Surrogates combined. First part of hypothesis is supported Surrogates generally limited to < 10 NTU Is there a tipping point for turbiditysensitive fishes? 15
16 Surrogate Cumulative Abundance vs. turbidity Percent of individuals % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 97.76% 99.17% 99.57% 99.99% % 82.88% 7.50% 1 NTU 5 NTU 10 NTU 12 NTU 15 NTU 20 NTU 50 NTU Cumulative individuals Nearly 98% of Blue Ridge sculpins found in waters <10 NTU <1% in waters >12 NTU Percent of individuals % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 96.39% 96.98% 99.83% 99.93% % 64.28% 3.91% 1 NTU 5 NTU 10 NTU 12 NTU 15 NTU 20 NTU 50 NTU Cumulative individuals More than 96% of Greenside darters found in waters <10 NTU <4% in waters >12 NTU Percent of individuals % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 92.88% 93.65% 95.68% 95.83% 97.84%100.00% 75.56% 8.42% 0.00% 1 NTU 5 NTU 10 NTU12 NTU 15 NTU20 NTU 50 NTU 75 NTU Cumulative individuals Nearly 93% of Central Stonerollers found in waters <10 NTU <7% in waters >12 NTU
17 Hypothetical assumptions fulfilled Ecological surrogates will be intolerant of environmental conditions that differ significantly from those on Nassau.and there would be an apparent threshold beyond which the surrogates did not occur. 17
18 What this all means.. The concept of using ecological surrogates is in fact a valid technique in ESIA This methodology can refine sensitivity analysis This method reduces the risk to lenders by providing quantitative analysis to accompany qualitative observation Provides a numerical, enforceable standard that is rooted in documented, biologically relevant requirements 18
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