Distributed Generation and the Retail Utility of the Future
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1 Distributed Generation and the Retail Utility of the Future May 15, 2014 National Governor s Association Policy Academy Workshop Kris Mayes Director, Utility of the Future Center, Arizona State University
2 Foundational Policies Supporting Renewables for Arizona Utilities 30% Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) 15% Renewable Energy Standard (RES) 15% by % DG Carve-out Applies to utilities under ACC jurisdiction Net Energy Metering (NEM) Underpins DG value proposition ASU Utility of the Future Center 2
3 Renewable Energy (% Retail Sales) 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Arizona's Renewable Energy Standard 15% by 2025 Utilities subject to the RES must supply 15% of their energy from renewable sources by 2025 (this only applies to investor-owned utilities subject to ACC jurisdiction). Carveout for DG 30% of renewable energy must come from distributed sources, half of which must be from residential customers (i.e. rooftop solar). ASU Utility of the Future Center 3
4 Solana (Abengoa): 280 MW CSP with 6hr Thermal Storage ASU 4 Utility of the Future Center
5 ASU Campuses: >20 MW PV Installed ASU 5 Utility of the Future Center
6 Utilities with High PV Penetration 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Munis and Coops Investor-owned Utilities Net metered PV systems (as % of total customers) in 2012 Kauai Island Coop. City of Hercules City of Roseville City of Palo Alto ASU Utility of the Future Center 6 City of Healdsburg Washington Elec. Coop Maui Electric Hawaiian Electric HI Electric Light SDG&E PG&E AZ Public Service
7 $3.50 Historic Subsidies and Installations for Solar DG in APS Service Territory 140 Upfront Incentives ($/W) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Upfront Incentives for Solar DG (APS) MW of solar DG 2012 Key Question: How will NEM decision affect this? Watch for ACC Quarterly Reports ASU Utility of the Future Center Cumulative Intallations (MW) Now at $0/W
8 Arizona Solar Hotspots ASU Utility of the Future Center 8
9 The Fight over Net Metering in AZ ASU Utility of the Future Center 9
10 The Fight over Net Metering in AZ : Rooftop solar increased from 1,000 to 18,000 APS residential customers (~2%) Nov 2012: Republicans win ACC election; APS initiates workshops on value of distributed energy July 2013: APS proposes $50-100/month bill increase for solar customers; PR battle ramps up Unprecedented campaign-style spending for and against NEM: APS: ~$4 million, EEI: ~$500,000; Solar companies: ~$400,000 Conservative groups jump in: TUSK: Tell Utilities Solar Won t be Killed (solar companies, Barry Goldwater Jr.) Prosper HQ, 60 Plus (funded by APS, linked to Koch donor network) Sept 2013: Staff recommends wait until rate case (2015) Nov 2013: Commission decides to add $0.70/kW charge for new solar customers (~$5/month); unprecedented turnout of solar supporters ASU Utility of the Future Center 10
11 Where are the tipping points? Wind PPA prices < existing system costs in CO EIM to increase asset utilization and exchange between BAs >1 Million Nest thermostats sold Upfront incentives = $0 in CA & AZ Significant customer benefits...& changing expectations Limited growth in utility rate base These tipping points cause us to ask: Are changes to traditional cost-of-service utility model b fi i l?
12 Changing the central focus: FROM: Did customers pay the correct amount for what they got? TO: Are customers getting what they want? Utility and Regulatory Models for the Modern Era by Ron Lehr
13 Inquiries into Changing the Utility Business Model and Incentives New York State Hawaii Arizona Corporation Commission Comm. Bob Burns Emerging Technologies Docket Powering Tomorrow Initiative Performance Based Incentives; Extreme decentralization of utilities wires only; microgrid recovery for utilities; utility ownership models for distributed solar
14 What Do AZ Customers Want? 62% of voters say that solar is the first energy source they would encourage AZ to use more of. 60% of Republican primary voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to end solar programs. Nearly 90% of customers support a state renewable energy standard. 9 in 10 people say renewable energy is worth the additional cost to develop it. Sources: 2013 Colorado College Conservation in the West Poll conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Assoc. and Public Opinion Strategies: 2013 Public Opinion Strategies Poll APS/Morrison Institute Informed Perception Project Report: ASU Utility of the Future Center 14
15 Deer Valley High School ASU Utility of the Future Center 15
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