WCIRB Workers Compensation Conference. California Workers Compensation System in 2012 A WCIRB Perspective Dave Bellusci, WCIRB Chief Actuary

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1 6/19/212 W o r k e r s C o m p e n s a t i o n I n s u r a n c e R a t i n g B u r e a u o f C a l i f o r n i a WCIRB Workers Compensation Conference Silverado Resort Napa, California June 14, 212 California Workers Compensation System in 212 A WCIRB Perspective Dave Bellusci, WCIRB Chief Actuary WCIRBCalifornia Notice Notice The information provided in this conference was developed by the Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCIRB) solely for the purpose of discussion during this conference. The WCIRB shall not be liable for any damages, of any kind, whether direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential, arising from the use, inability to use, or reliance upon information provided in this conference. 212 Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including, without limitation, photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of the Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCIRB), unless such copying is expressly permitted by federal copyright law. Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California, WCIRB, WCIRB California, WCIRB Online, X-Mod Direct, escad and the WCIRB California logo (WCIRB Marks) are registered trademarks or service marks of the WCIRB. WCIRB Marks may not be displayed or used in any manner without the WCIRB s prior written permission. Any permitted copying of this work must maintain any and all trademarks and/or service marks on all copies. To seek permission to use any of the WCIRB Marks or any copyrighted material, please contact the Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California, 525 Market Street, Suite 8, San Francisco, California WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 2 1

2 6/19/212 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 3 Written Premium 25 $ Billions 23.5 Written Premium - Gross of Deductible Credits Written Premium - Net of Deductible Credits (3 months) Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 4 2

3 6/19/212 California Written Premium as Percentage of Countrywide Premium (Net of Deductibles) % of Countrywide Net Written Premium Calendar Year Countrywide figures are from NCCI s May 1, 212 State of the Line Presentation (211 estimate is preliminary). 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 5 Components of 16% Decline in 29 Written Premium Approximate Effect in Percentage Points.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -4.% -5.% -6.% Change in Average Rate Level Reduced Total Wages Shifts in California Industrial Mix Audit Premiums on 27 through 28 Policies Other Factors 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 6 3

4 6/19/212 Components of 9% Increase in 21 Written Premium 8% Approximate Effect in Percentage Points 6% 6.% 4% 2% 1.% 1.5% 1.5% %.% -2% Change in Average Rate Level Increased Total Wages -1.% Shifts in California Industrial Mix Audit Premiums on 27 through 29 Policies Adjustments to Premiums in Older Years Other Factors 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 7 Components of 11% Increase in 211 Written Premium Approximate Effect in Percentage Points 8% 6% 4% 4.% 4.% 2% 2.% 2.% %.% -2% Change in Average Rate Level Increased Total Wages Shifts in California Industrial Mix Audit Premiums on 27 through 29 Policies -1.% Adjustments to Premiums in Older Years Other Factors 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 8 4

5 6/19/212 Reported Policy Year Written Premium Development months Months Policy Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 9 Market Concentration Ratios (Based on Written Premium Prior to Deductible Credits) 1 % Top 5 Insurers Top 6th to 1th Insurers Top 11th to 2th Insurers Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 1 5

6 6/19/212 Market Share by Type of Insurer (Based on Written Premium Prior to Deductible Credits) % National Insurers California Insurers State Fund Calendar Year Note: California Insurers are defined as private insurers who write at least 8% of their workers compensation business in California. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 11 State Fund Market Share vs. Private Insurers (Based on Written Premium Net of Deductible Credits) % 1 Private Insurers State Fund Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 12 6

7 6/19/212 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 13 Average Insurer Rate Per $1 of Payroll $8. $6. $5.94 $6.29 $6.5 $5.49 $4.96 $4.36 $4. $3.46 $3.5 $2. $2.59 $2.47 $2.3 $2.85 $2.75 $2.3 $2.29 $2.34 $2.39 $2.51 $2. $ /3-6/3 7/3-12/3 1/4-6/4 7/4-12/4 1/5-6/5 7/5-12/5 1/6-6/6 7/6-12/6 1/7-6/7 7/7-12/ /12-3/12 Policy Period 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 14 7

8 6/19/212 Rate Comparison Based on Oregon Studies California* vs. National Median Average Rate $6. $6.8 California National Median $5.23 $4. $2. $3.34 $2.26 $2.42 $2.58 $4.13 $2.48 $2.72 $2.26 $2.96 $2.4 $3.17 $. 1/1/ 1/1/2 1/1/4 1/1/6 1/1/8 1/1/1 1/1/212 Rate Effective Period Projected * - The comparison is based on the State of Oregon classification mix and, as a result, the California average rates shown on this graph differs from other measures of the average California rate. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia Ratio of Average Insurer Rates to Pure Premium Rates 1.75 As of March 31, Policy Year (3 Months) 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 16 8

9 6/19/212 Average Rates Per $1 of Payroll 7/1/212 Filing $4. Average Advisory Pure Premium Rates Average Industry Filed & Charged Rates $3.39 $3. $2.33 $2.3 $2.51 $2.49 $2.37 $2.41 $2.39 $2. $1. $. Proposed Average Pure Premium Rate 1/1/12 Approved Average Pure Premium Rate 1/1/12 Proposed Average Pure Premium Rate 7/1/12 Approved Average Pure Premium Rate 7/1/12 Industry Average Filed Pure Premium Rate 7/1/11 Industry Average Filed Pure Premium Rate 1/1/12 Industry Average Filed Manual Rate 1/1/12 Industry Average Charged Rate WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 17 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results Ogilvie and Almaraz/Guzman Medicare Set-Asides 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 18 9

10 6/19/212 Ultimate Indemnity Claim Counts Per Estimated 1, Full-Time Employees As of March 31, (3 Months) 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 19 Percentage Change in Indemnity Claim Frequency % As of March 31, [1] [1] [1] [1] The estimate is based on partial year unit statistical data. The and estimates are based on comparison of claim counts using WCIRB accident year experience as of March 31, 212 relative to the estimated change in statewide employment. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 2 1

11 6/19/212 Change in Indemnity Claim Frequency California vs. NCCI States % As of March 31, California NCCI States NCCI estimates are based on May 1, 212 State of the Line Presentation ( 21 and 211 estimates have been adjusted to remove the impact of audit premium and other factors). 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 21 Indemnity Claims Per 1, Workers Based on 25 NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin (21 Policy Year) 2,5 2,32 2, 1,5 1, 1,361 1,264 1,32 1,17 1, ,54 5 California Florida New York Pennsylvania Texas Countrywide Countrywide California PY 27 PY WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 22 11

12 6/19/212 Permanent Partial Disability Claims Per 1, Workers Based on 25 NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin (21 Policy Year) 1,2 1, California Florida New York Pennsylvania Texas Countrywide Countrywide California PY 27 PY WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 23 Permanent Partial Disability Claims Per 1, Workers States Using AMA Guides 5th Edition (Based on 211 NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin) WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 24 12

13 6/19/212 Proportion of Permanent Partial and Medical Only Claims % 6 Permanent Partial as % of Indemnity % Medical Only as % of Total Claims WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 25 Indemnity Claim Count Development Factors 1.25 From 12 to 24 Months From 24 to 36 Months From 36 to 48 Months WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved

14 6/19/212 Cumulative Injury Claim Percentage 12. % Estimated Fifth Report Cumulative Injury Claims as a % of Indemnity Claims Partial 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 27 Cumulative Injury Claim Survey 1 % of Survey Responses Involving Listed Characteristics s s Specific Component Represented Did Not Return to Employer Filed Post- Termination Psych Sleep Disorder POBs Added Multiple POBs Permanent Disability 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved

15 6/19/212 Cumulative Injury Claims per 1 Indemnity Claims at USR 1 st Report Level Bay Area Los Angeles Remainder of California Statewide WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 29 Changes in Cumulative Injury Claims vs. Changes in Employment % Change in Cumulative Injury Claims Change in Employment All Industries Agriculture & Mining Construction Manufacturing Real Estate Education Health 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 3

16 6/19/212 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 31 Estimated Ultimate Indemnity Loss per Indemnity Claim $35, As of March 31, 212 $2,,978 18,991 2,755 22,733 23,912 26,29 25,593 24,387 19,664 17,242 19,8 2,819 23,355 24,237 23,924 24,273 $5, % Change WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 32 16

17 6/19/212 Change in Indemnity Claim Severity California vs. NCCI States % Change As of March 31, California NCCI States NCCI estimates are based on May 1, 212 State of the Line Presentation. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 33 Estimated Ultimate Medical Loss Per Indemnity Claim 6, $ Dollars As of March 31, , 3, 14,143, 17,6 2,599 23,75 26,546 31,254 32,396 3,874 29,5 3,4 33,893 37,823 41,957 44,35 44,474 44, % Change *Excludes medical-only. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 34 17

18 6/19/212 Change in Medical Claim Severity California vs. NCCI States 25 % Change As of March 31, 212 California NCCI States NCCI estimates are based on May 1, 212 State of the Line Presentation. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 35 Change in Workers Compensation Medical Claim Severity vs. Average Annual Changes in California Group Health Premiums 25 5 % Change As of March 31, 212 California WC Severity 17.7 Group Health Average Premium Increases Year Group health cost information from California Employer Health Benefits Survey published by the California Healthcare Foundation, December WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 36 18

19 6/19/212 Medical Cost Levels Indexed to 21 % California Insured Workers' Compensation Medical on Indemnity California Private Self-Insured Workers' Compensation Medical Per Claim California Group Health Premiums NCCI States Workers' Compensation Medical on Indemnity Claims Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 37 Medical Trend Medical Paid Per Indemnity Claim at 9 Months from Injury Date Based on CWCI Transactional Level Data $6, $5, $5, $4, $3,622 $3, $2, $1,394 $1, $ $23 $56 $523 $129 $328 Medical Treatment Ex. Pharmaceuticals (+64%) Pharmaceuticals* (+176%) Medical Cost Containment (+167%) Medical Legal (+4%) * Includes cost of durable medical equipment 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 38 19

20 6/19/212 Projected Medical Loss Per Indemnity Claim $8, Pre-Reform Estimates * Post-Reform Estimates 7,227 78,654 88,92 $6, $4, 44,63 29,87 49,986 33,697 55,984 37,573 62,72 41,178 43,4 43,5 43,38 $2, $ * Pre-reform estimates for 25 through 211 were derived from the 22 severity by applying 11-year average ( ) annual trend (12%). 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 39 Estimated Medical Cost Reform Savings vs. Medical Cost Containment Expenditures Estimated Savings in Ultimate Medical Cost Per Indemnity Claim Due to 22 through 24 Reforms $5, 45, $4, 36, $3, $2,, 16, 18, 22, 27, $1, $ $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, Estimated Medical Cost Containment Expense Per Indemnity Claim 24 Months from Date of Injury* 2,661 2,566 2,279 1,953 1,614 1,348 1,13 $5 $ * Based on June 212 CWCI Data Summary. The 21 and 211 are developed estimates based on the 9 and 12 month figures and the latest year development factor. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 4 2

21 6/19/212 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 41 Estimated Change in Claim Cost on Indemnity Claims % Change in Indemnity Claim Frequency As of March 31, % 25 Change in Total Cost of Indemnity Claims % Change in Total Loss Level WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 42 21

22 6/19/212 Estimated Ultimate Losses $ Billions As of March 31, WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 43 Comparison of Indemnity Payment Patterns % of Projected Ultimate Indemnity Losses Paid 8 7 AY96 (pre-minniear) NCCI Countrywide* 6 5 AY3 (Pre-Reform) AY11 Projected (7/1/212 Filing) As of 12 months As of 24 months As of 36 months * NCCI countrywide pattern is from NCCI s 211 Annual Statistical Bulletin (2-year average) and excludes California and several other states. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 44 22

23 6/19/212 Comparison of Medical Payment Patterns % of Projected Ultimate Medical Losses Paid 8 AY96 (pre-minniear) 7 NCCI Countrywide* AY3 (Pre-Reform) 6 AY11 Projected (7/1/212 Filing) As of 12 months As of 24 months As of 36 months * NCCI countrywide pattern is from NCCI s 211 Annual Statistical Bulletin (2-year average) and excludes California and several other states. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 45 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 46 23

24 6/19/212 Calendar Year Loss Adjustment Expenses $ Billions Losses ALAE ULAE Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 47 Calendar Year Ratios of LAE to Loss 4 % ALAE ULAE Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 48 24

25 6/19/212 Ratios of ULAE to Loss: State Fund, California & National Insurers % State Fund 6 5 National Insurers California Private Insurers Calendar Year California private insurers are insurers with more than 8% of their workers compensation writings in California. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 49 Ratios of ALAE to Losses: State Fund, California & National Insurers % 4 State Fund National Insurers California Private Insurers Calendar Year California private insurers are insurers with more than 8% of their workers compensation writings in California. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 5 25

26 6/19/212 Paid ALAE per Reported Indemnity Claim $ Statewide As of December 31, 211 4,5 at 12 Months at 24 Months at 36 Months 3,8 3,245 2,878 3, 2,377 2,346 2,626 2,22 2,422 1,5 1,47 1,881 1,731 1, $ Private Insurers As of December 31, 211 4,5 3, 3,289 at 12 Months at 24 Months at 36 Months 3,322 3,12 3,111 1,763 1,852 1,983 3,617 2,114 4,13 2,49 2,567 1, WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. 51 Ratios of Other Expenses to Premium % Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 52 26

27 6/19/212 Overview Premiums and Market Shares Rates Claim Frequency Claim Severity Losses and Loss Development Expenses Industry Results 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 53 Combined Loss and Expense Ratios % As of March 31, Other Expenses LAE Losses WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 54 27

28 6/19/212 Combined Ratios California vs. Countrywide % As of March 31, 212 California Countrywide (Private Insurers)* Countrywide estimate from NCCI s May 1, 212 State of the Line Presentation was computed based on Annual Statement data. 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 55 Calendar Year Combined Loss and Expense Ratios 18 % Calendar Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 56 28

29 6/19/212 Average Return on Net Worth % Fortune Magazine - All Industry Total All Lines All States California Workers' Compensation Calendar Year Source: NAIC Report on Profitability in 21 1-Year Arithmetic Average Return California Workers Compensation 5.6% Fortune Magazine All Industry 12.9% Total P & C All Lines All States 6.2% 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 57 Estimated Ultimate Losses Less Reported Losses 18 $ Billions As of December 31, Evaluation Year 212 WCIRB California. All Rights Reserved. WCIRBCalifornia 58 29