What Innovations for Food and Nutrition Security in a Bioeconomy Age?

Transcription

1 What Innovations for Food and Nutrition Security in a Bioeconomy Age? Joachim von Braun Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn A Jülich Lecture, June 28 th, 2013

2 The Roots of Innovation 1. Scarcity of factors (factor prices, e.g. land) 2. Creativity and experimenting (incl. of farmers) 3. (Science) Education and other public policy for science Institutional Innovation & Technological Innovation

3 Overview 1. Toward green economy with bioeconomy 2. The problems in the World Food and Nutrition Equation 3. Technical and institutional innovations for ending hunger and undernutrition 4. Policy actions and redesign for international science policy

4 Zero Carbon Emissions CO2 Green Economy Sustainable Production Biomass Bioeconomy Landwirtschaft Residues Zero Waste Products Ecological Footprints

5 Bioeconomy (biobasierte Wirtschaft) is the knowledge-based production and utilization of biological resources for products, production processes, and services in the economic system. It s raw materials stem from biomass and bio-chemical processes 5

6 Bioeconomy: Products and Science Domains Rohstoffversorgung Nahrungsmittelsicherheit Biodiversität Ernährungssicherung Marco Barnebeck / PIXELIO Jens Bredehorn / PIXELIO Rosel Eckstein / PIXELIO Eugen Lehle Antje Schröter / PIXELIO Rest-/Abfallstoffe Rest-/Abfallstoffe Energieversorgung Gesundheit Source: adapted from EU Commission (2006)

7 The four drivers of the Bioeconomy 1. Increased prices of resources 2. Climate change and energy policy 3. Innovation opportunities 4. Changed preferences of people

8 Overview 1. Toward green economy with bioeconomy 2. The problems in the World Food and Nutrition Equation 3. Technical and institutional innovations for ending hunger and undernutrition 4. Policy actions and redesign for international science policy

9 The Equation of World Food and Agriculture in the Bioeconomy Age Supply = Land Water Inputs & Transport costs Workforce Climate change Farm size structure Technology Prices, Markets & Trade Prices and speculation International trade Supermarkets Demand Income growth Poverty and inequality Consumer behavior Bioenergy Biomass (CO2)

10 Multiple World Food and Nutrition Problems Problems Hunger (Under-Nutrition, calories) Hidden Hunger (deficiencies of Micro-Nutrients, vitamines, iron etc.) Children s under-nutrition (the first 1000 days) Obesity and resulting chronic diseases Numbers of people ca. 0,9 Mrd. ca. 2 Mrd. ca. 165 Mio. ca. 1 Mrd. Consequences acute deficiency, political conflicts diseases, reduced productivity stunting, reduced physical, kognitiv development. 3,1 Mio. death p.a. high costs of public health Quellen: The Lancet 6/2013, FAO 2013

11 Different time subscripts t are relevant for different nutrition problems Long-term (decade/year): nutritional status (stunting); water-, land-use; climate, technology; polit. change; investments Medium-term (months): nutrient deficiencies (Cal., micro-nutrients, weight loss); weather, grain stocks Short-term (weeks, days): nutrition shocks in early childhood; Infections, trade shocks, shocks in financial markets

12 Progress in reduction of hunger and child under nutrition Hunger world wide: 1990/92: 1000 Millions (19% of world population) 2010/12: 868 Millions (13% of world population) Children in Developing countries : 1990: 40% : 26% Ending hunger 2030 should be a goal

13 Land, Soils, and Water

14 Total arable land is limited Climate change, urbanization and degradation affect arable land Protection of forests imposes further environmental limits Global Arable Land (Mio ha) Source: FAOSTAT

15 Land shortage and land degradation constrain production 42% of the poor live in degraded areas Source: Bai et al., 2008.

16 Investment in land (sales and long term lease) Source: Land Matrix Homepage (accessed May 6, 2012) Data: Land Matrix Project, April 2012

17 Prices

18 Structural and Climate Change Impacts on Prices 2050 $/ metric ton No climate change 2050 NCAR No CF Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.

19 Food price crises 2008 and 2011: New price levels, volatility, extreme spikes Preis in $ pro Tonne Reispreis $/t Weizenpreis $/t Globaler Getreidepreisindex 1/2000 8/2000 3/ /2001 5/ /2002 7/2003 2/2004 9/2004 4/ /2005 6/2006 1/2007 8/2007 3/ /2008 5/ /2009 7/2010 2/2011 9/2011 4/ ,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 Index Quelle: FAO, FAO Giews.

20 : since 1990s new Financialisation of Agricultural Commodity Markets Wheat price and Financial Krises Sources: J. von Braun, 2012, Data: BCDI index Reinhart und Rogoff (2009), Wheat price BLS 2008, Godo 2001, NBER 2008, OECD 2005, U.S. Census Bureau 2008, und United Nations 1999

21 Which prices drive food prices (and vice versa)? input prices land price labor wages water price (costs) energy price financial asset (commodities) Food prices All these prices are more interlinked And volatility is a disincentive for investment

22 Overview 1. Toward green economy with bioeconomy 2. The problems in the World Food and Nutrition Equation 3. Technical and institutional innovations for ending hunger and undernutrition 4. Policy actions and redesign for international science policy

23 The What and How of Innovations for Food and Nutrition Security What: Producing more and better with less: sustainable intensification Efficiency along all value chains / the value web Nutrition and health systems effeciveness How: Innovation systems strengthening Incentives for results and finance Science land scape build-up

24 Expected Global Agric. Production Growth 2.1% auf 1,5% % Quelle: OECD FAO Agriculture Outlook 2013

25 Innovation feeds the world Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture Beitrag von TFP Inputintensivierung Bewässerung Anbauflächenerweiterung Source: IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.

26 Examples of technology innovations Plant breeding for micro-nutrient quality (Biofortifikation) Biomass quantity Climate-smart (drought and temperature-resistance) Disease resistance Nutrient efficent crops Livestock production innovations (feeding, breeding, etc.) Mechanisation for precision

27 Examples of institutional innovations Frame work conditions for innovation (IPprotection, access to genetic resources accross borders) Innovative incentive systems (combining enhanced funding of basic research with results oriented awards and innovation prizes) Venture Capital (for projects and start-ups) Public- private cooperations (platforms)

28 Linkages between Technological and Institutional Innovations Technological innovations address primarily the availability of food and micronutrients Institutional innovations are necessary to ensure the up-take of new technologies and to address the issues of access, utilization and stability in the FNS equation

29 Producing more with less and without adversely affecting the environment

30 Overview 1. Toward green economy with bioeconomy 2. The problems in the World Food and Nutrition Equation 3. Technical and institutional innovations for ending hunger and undernutrition 4. Policy actions and redesign for international science policy

31 Strategic food and nutrition security agenda 1. Risk prevention: Promotion of agriculture productivity across value chains to address risks on supply side. 2. Risk management: Facilitation of reduced market volatility and spikes with appropriate stocks, more trade openness, appropriate regulation, and international cooperation. 3. Social protection: productive safety nets, cash transfers; expanded action for nutrition security of children. 4. Insurance systems: insurance of crops, peoples health and disabilities, public insurance mechanisms for catastrophic events (e.g. regional droughts)

32 New Science Policy

33 Top 10 Countries Public Agricultural R&D Expenditures: not enough and not connected enough Quelle: Pardey, Beddow, The Chicago Council, 2013

34 Bioeconomy Age: new policy initiatives Australia Bioenergy Strategic Plan Brasil Biotechnology Development Policy (2007) Danmark Agreement on Green Growth (2009) Germany Nationale Forschungsstrategie BioÖkonomie 2030 (2010) EU-Commission A Bioeconomy for Europe (2012) Finnland National Resource Strategy and Sust. Bio-Economy (2011) Ireland Delivering our Green Potential (2012) Canada Biorefining Conversions Network (2009) Malaysia Bioeconomy Initiative and National Biomass Strategy (2011) Netherlands Biobased Economy Russia Bioindustry and Bioresources BioTech 2030 (2012) Sweden Research and Innovation Strategy for Bio-based Econ. (2011) UK UK Bioenergy Strategy (2011) USA National Bioeconomy Blueprint (2012) 34

35 Priorities of the Bioeconomy Council of 1) R&D : German Government Bioeconomic competitiveness Fostering technology and institutional innovations Natural resources production and protection strategies Consumer benefits and health Environment and Natur 2) Improving framework conditions, reduced innovation hurdles 3) Public Information and Dialogue 4) Inter-disciplinary science education and next generation researchers [see Eckpunktepapier ] 35

36 A call for re-design of the international Ag., Food and Nutrition Science System: The challenges of agricultural development and food and nutrition security require a strong mechanism for science and research based assessment as a permanent institutional arrangement for the coming decades. A global body tasked with this could be mapped along the lines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but avoiding its pitfalls from the outset. An independent global research platform that facilitates the peer reviewed assessments on agriculture, food and nutrition is needed for delivering evidence based analyses for action with foresight.