LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
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1 LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011 Used with permission.
2 TYPES OF ASSET CLASSES Stocks Large stocks Small stocks International stocks Bonds Government bonds Corporate bonds Municipal bonds High-yield bonds International bonds Cash alternatives Money-market funds Treasury bills Certificates of deposit Real assets Real estate Commodities Gold Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011 Used with permission.
3 IBBOTSON SBBI STOCKS, BONDS, BILLS AND INFLATION $16,055 $10,000 1, Compound Annual Return Small Stocks Large Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills Inflation 12.1% $2,982 $93 10 $21 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
4 IBBOTSON SBBI STOCKS, BONDS, BILLS AND INFLATION $20 10 Compound Annual Return Small Stocks Large Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills Inflation 12.5% $12.57 $5.75 $5.05 $1.97 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
5 THE PAST 10 YEARS $3 Compound Annual Return Small Stocks Government Bonds Inflation Treasury Bills Large Stocks 9.6% $2.51 $1.90 $1.26 $1.24 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
6 LONG-TERM ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE Small Stocks Large Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills Annual Compound Annual Return 12.1% 9.9% 5.5% 3.6% Standard Deviation 32.6% 20.4% 9.5% 3.1% 12-Month Rolling Periods Highest Return Lowest Return 316.4% -75.9% 162.9% -67.6% 54.4% -17.1% 15.2% 0.0% Average Positive Return 31.4% 21.7% 8.6% 3.7% Average Negative Return -19.0% -14.3% -3.9% 0.0% Percent Periods Positive 71.8% 73.3% 78.1% 98.4% Percent Periods Negative 28.2% 26.7% 21.9% 1.6% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
7 BOND MARKET PERFORMANCE $500 $ Compound Annual Return High-Yield Corp Bonds Corporate Bonds Government Bonds Municipal Bonds Treasury Bills 6.9% $ $92.94 $34.88 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
8 GROWTH AND VALUE INVESTING $ Compound Annual Return Small Value Large Value Small Growth Large Growth 15.0% $ $59.19 $32.06 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
9 STOCKS, COMMODITIES, REITs, AND GOLD $100 Compound Annual Return REITs U.S. Stocks International Stocks Commodities Gold 12.3% $36.02 $28.08 $ $9.35 $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
10 WHAT IS ASSET ALLOCATION? Asset allocation is the process of combining asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and cash in a portfolio in order to meet your goals. Stocks Cash Bonds Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
11 THE CASE FOR ASSET ALLOCATION % Return Compound Annual Return Bonds 6.6% 50/50 Portfolio 5.2 Stocks Year Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Time period illustrated is from This time period was chosen as a dramatic illustration of stock and bond return behavior and how their often opposite movements reduced portfolio volatility. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
12 ASSET ALLOCATION: RISK VERSUS RETURN % Return Maximum Risk Portfolio: 100% Stocks 11 80% Stocks, 20% Bonds 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds 50% Stocks, 50% Bonds Minimum Risk Portfolio: 28% Stocks, 72% Bonds 100% Bonds 9 10% Risk Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Risk and return are measured by standard deviation and arithmetic mean, respectively. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
13 STOCK DIVERSIFICATION Risk Company Risk Market Risk ,000 Number of Stocks in Portfolio Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
14 MORE FUNDS DO NOT ALWAYS MEAN GREATER DIVERSIFICATION IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL SECURITY OVERLAP Equity Portfolio A Equity Portfolio B Deep-Value Core-Value Core Core-GrowthHigh-Growth Deep-Value Core-Value Core Core-GrowthHigh-Growth Micro Small Mid Large Giant Micro Small Mid Large Giant Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
15 ASSET ALLOCATION & DIVERSIFICATION IN BULL AND BEAR MARKETS Bull Market Bear Market $2,500 $2,084 Stocks 50/50 Portfolio Bonds $1,500 2,000 $1,160 1,250 $1,653 1,500 1,000 $1,274 $767 1, Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
16 DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS IN VARIOUS MARKET CONDITIONS PERFORMANCE DURING AND AFTER SELECT BEAR MARKETS $1,250 Mid-1970s Recession (Jan 1973 Jun 1976) 2007 Bear Market and Aftermath (Nov 2007 Dec 2010) Stocks Diversified Portfolio $1,150 $1,072 1,000 $1,014 $ Jan 1973 Jan 1974 Jan 1975 Jan 1976 Nov 2007 Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Nov 2010 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Diversified portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at the beginning of January 1973 and Nov 2007, respectively. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
17 CAN YOU STAY ON TRACK? $1,200 $100k $56,036 $1,091 Stocks 50/50 Portfolio Bonds $40,139 $21,754 1,000 10k $ k $ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
18 COMPOUNDING & REBALANCING Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
19 POWER OF REINVESTING $10k Compound Annual Return Stocks With Reinvestment Stocks Without Reinvestment Bonds With Reinvestment Bonds Without Reinvestment 9.1% $5,751 $5,053 $3,808 $1,609 1, Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at the beginning of Data does not account for taxes or transaction costs. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
20 POWER OF COMPOUNDING HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT IN STOCKS $80k Investor A Years Contributing: Annual Amount Contributed: $2,000 Investor B Years Contributing: Annual Amount Contributed: $4, $60,858 Total Amount Invested Compounded Value at Year-End 2010 $48, $40, $20, Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
21 IMPORTANCE OF REBALANCING % 70 Stock Allocation Bond Allocation 71% 75% 72% 60 63% 50 50% 50% 40 37% 30 29% 25% 28% Year-End Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Stocks: 50% large and 50% small stocks. Bonds: intermediate-term government bonds. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
22 CONTROLLING RISK WITH PORTFOLIO REBALANCING THE RISK AND RETURN OF REBALANCED VERSUS NON-REBALANCED PORTFOLIOS 14% Risk 12.9% 13.1% Return Non-Rebalanced Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio % 10.4% 11.5% 9.8% 10.1% 10.0% 10.6% 10.5% 8 8.1% 7.9% Jan 1970 Dec 2010 Jan 1980 Dec 2010 Jan 1990 Dec 2010 Jan 1970 Dec 2010 Jan 1980 Dec 2010 Jan 1990 Dec 2010 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Risk and return are measured by annualized standard deviation and compound annual return, respectively. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
23 COMBATING COMMON INVESTOR ERRORS Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
24 INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED S&P 500 Inflation Average Stock Fund Investor Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index Average Bond Fund Investor Past performance is no guarantee of future results DALBAR, Inc. This information is for illustrative purposes and seeks to demonstrate the virtues of a buy-and-hold strategy rather than trying to time the market. The calculations assume a $10,000 initial investment over the specified time period from 1988 through Please refer to disclosures on the next slide. 24
25 THE MOST DETRIMENTAL INVESTOR MISTAKES Buying overvalued investments 8% Other 1% Holding on to investments too long 11% Having too much money in one investment 16% Not paying enough attention to asset allocation 33% Trying to time the market 31% Source: AllianceBernstein Investments Survey of Financial Advisors on Asset Allocation Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. 25
26 INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS TEND TO REACT EMOTIONALLY Net flows by broad investment categories at major inflection points in the market and subsequent performance: 2000 $ ($ Billions) Subsequent Returns Stocks (S&P 500) % +8.43% Bonds (Barclays Capital Agg Index) % % -$ $ Subsequent Returns Stocks (S&P 500) Bonds (Barclays Capital Agg Index) -$ % +4.10% % +4.34% 2008 $39.29 Subsequent Returns Stocks (S&P 500) Bonds (Barclays Capital Agg Index) -$ % +5.93% Stock Funds Bond Funds The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond index measures changes in 26 the fixed rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. There is no assurance that past trends will continue into the future. Source: Investment Company Institute. Morningstar Data. The categories listed above, Equity and Fixed Income, represent those funds categorized as such by the Investment Company Institute.
27 DANGERS OF MARKET TIMING HYPOTHETICAL VALUE OF $1 INVESTED FROM $6 $ $1.96 $ Stocks Stocks Minus Best 13 Months Treasury Bills Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
28 THE COST OF MARKET TIMING RISK OF MISSING THE BEST DAYS IN THE MARKET % Return % Invested for All 5,043 Trading Days 5.4% 3.0% 0.9% -1.0% -2.7% 10 Best Days Missed 20 Best Days Missed 30 Best Days Missed 40 Best Days Missed 50 Best Days Missed Daily Returns for All 5,043 Trading Days 10% Return Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
29 REDUCTION OF RISK OVER TIME % Small Stocks Large Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills Compound Annual Return: 12.1% 9.9% 5.5% 3.6% Year Holding Period 5-Year 20-Year 1-Year 5-Year 20-Year 1-Year 5-Year 20-Year 1-Year 5-Year 20-Year Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2011
30 BRUTAL DECLINES AMID THE LONG-TERM RISE $53.5 million (15)% (41)% (51)% (15)% (30)% (17)% $100,000 (22)% (29)% (16)% (43)% (15)% Past performance does not guarantee future results. No fees or expenses are reflected in the performance of the index. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and an index s results are not indicative of any specific investment. Source: Compustat; Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns, University of Chicago Press Journal of Business (January 1976); and Bernstein Global Wealth Management Updated as of 2/1/10 with data from Callan and Associates. Market data references S&P 500 returns. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. 30
31 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
32 INVESTMENT PROCESS PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION We use a variety of tools to tailor our investment process to your objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation and investment experience. Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." John Bogle Founder, The Vanguard Group 32
33 INVESTMENT PROCESS We can build specific investments into your financial plan to help you achieve your financial goals. 33
34 INVESTMENT PROCESS RISK AND REWARD Expected Return Conservative Conservative Balanced Balanced Balanced with Emphasis on Growth Growth Aggressive Growth Global Equity Lower-Risk Portfolios Higher-Risk Portfolios Risk (Standard Deviation of Return) An efficient frontier represents every possible combination of assets that maximizes return at each level of portfolio risk and minimizes risk at each level of portfolio return. The above illustration depicts the typical relationship between risk and return. Generally, investors are expected to be compensated in returns for assuming higher levels of risk. 34 Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of the investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and the risk) of the investment returns.
35 INVESTMENT PROCESS ASSET CLASSES We employ a variety of asset classes to help balance risk. U.S. Equity Non-U.S. Equity Fixed Income Real Estate Alternative Investments Cash & Cash Alternatives HYPOTHETICAL INCOME-FOCUSED PORTFOLIO HYPOTHETICAL GROWTH-FOCUSED PORTFOLIO Please refer to disclosures on the next slide. 35
36 INVESTMENT PROCESS INVESTMENT OPTIONS We have access to a wide variety of investments when designing portfolios for our clients and with the support of Raymond James research and due diligence, and our own analysis and understanding of your needs we choose investments best suited to your needs, constraints, obligations and goals. Raymond James Research and Due Diligence INVESTMENT UNIVERSE (Professional Asset Managers, Mutual Funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks, Bonds, REITs, Alternatives, etc.) RELEVANT INVESTMENTS (Quality investments appropriate to your situation) SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS (Investments chosen for you) Knowledge of Your Personal Situation Our Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis Please refer to disclosures on the next slide. 36
37 DISCLOSURES Investing in small-cap stocks generally involves greater risks and, therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. U.S. government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns. Holding stocks for the long-term does not insure a profitable outcome. Investing in stocks always involves risk, including the possibility of losing one s entire investment. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices rise. March 1, 2011 Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 2011 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC
38 DISCLOSURES (CONTINUED) High-yield (below investment grade) bonds are not suitable for all investors. The risk of default may increase due to changes in the issuer s credit quality. Price changes may occur due to changes in interest rates and the liquidity of the bond. When appropriate, these bonds should only comprise a modest portion of your portfolio. Municipal bond interest is not subject to federal income tax but may be subject to AMT, state or local taxes. Income from taxable municipal bonds is subject to federal income taxation; and it may be subject to state and local taxes. Municipal securities typically provide a lower yield than comparably rated taxable investments in consideration of their tax-advantaged status. Investments in municipal securities may not be appropriate for all investors, particularly those who do not stand to benefit from the tax status of the investment. Please consult an income tax professional to assess the impact of holding such securities on your tax liability. Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities and precious metals are volatile investments and should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. March 1, 2011 Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 2011 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC Continued on next slide
39 DISCLOSURES (CONTINUED) Investing in small-cap stocks generally involves greater risks and, therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. U.S. government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Holding stocks for the long-term does not insure a profitable outcome. Investing in stocks always involves risk, including the possibility of losing one's entire investment. Specific sector investing such as real estate can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Declines in the value of real estate, economic conditions, property taxes, tax laws and interest rates all present potential risks to real estate investments. March 1, 2011 Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 2011 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC Continued on next slide
40 DISCLOSURES (CONTINUED) Certificates of Deposit are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor. Coverage applies to total holdings per bank per depositor. Visit fdic.gov for more information. March 1, 2011 Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 2011 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC
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