The Effect on Reducing Insolvency by Asset Mix of Life Insurance Company
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1 The Effect on Reducing Insolvency by Asset Mix of Life Insurance Company March Yoshio Omori, Yuji Ide, Nobuyuki Murai, Takafumi Matsumura
2 1.Preface
3 Shift of GDP & Interest
4 1.2 Shift of Total Assets of Insolvent Life Insurance Companies No Life Ins. Time of Total Assets (Unit:billion yen) Company Insolvency Nissan Apr ,499 2, Toho Jun ,167 4,509 3, Daihyaku May ,527 3,318 2,762 2,467-1,193 4 Taisho Aug Chiyoda Oct ,442 5,816 5,028 4,359 3,501-6 Kyoei Oct ,763 5,725 5,245 5,080 4,609 4,099 7 Tokyo Mar ,556 1,468 1,328 1,239 1,095 - Total of Insolvent Life Ins. 24,689 23,132 17,595 13,379 9,411 5,397 Total of traditional Life 184, , , , , ,316 Ins.(except Insolvent 7 Com ) (12.6%)
5 1.3 Shift of Total Assets of Merger Life Insurance companies No Life Ins. Time of Total Assets (Unit:billion yen) Company Merger Meiji Apr ,629 16,709 17,045 17,281 16,846 17,469 2 Yasuda 9,200 9,233 9,474 9,745 10,080 10,256 3 Daido Apr ,011 5,059 5,346 5,482 5,733 5,900 4 Taiyo 6,445 6,703 6,825 6,969 7,081 7,266
6 1.4 Shift of Total Assets of Insolvent Life Insurance Companies No Life Ins. Time of Total Assets (Unit:billion yen) Company Insolvency Nissan Apr ,499 2, Toho Jun ,167 4,509 3, Daihyaku May ,527 3,318 2,762 2,467-1,193 4 Taisho Aug Chiyoda Oct ,442 5,816 5,028 4,359 3,501-6 Kyoei Oct ,763 5,725 5,245 5,080 4,609 4,099 7 Tokyo Mar ,556 1,468 1,328 1,239 1,095 - Total of Insolvent Life Ins. 24,689 23,132 17,595 13,379 9,411 5,397 Total of traditional Life 184, , , , , ,316 Ins.(except Insolvent 7 Com ) (12.6%)
7 1.5 Share of Assets in Life Insurance Company TraditionalLife Ins. 3% 50% 35% Cash,Deposits and Savings Call-Loans Non-Life faction Life Ins. 8% 70% 4% Securities foreign affiliated Life Ins. InsolventLife Ins. 2% 74% 12% 4% 46% 39% Loans Real Estates and Movables Others 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
8 1.6 Share of Liabilities in Life Insurance TraditionalLife Ins. Non-Life faction Life Ins. foreign affiliated Life Ins. Company 57% 9% 33% 100% 0% 87% 8%4% Individual Insurance Individual Annuities Group Insurance Group Annuities Insolvent Life Ins. 55% 14% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Asset- Formation ins. & Ann. Others
9 2.Effect of Assets Mix & Product Mix on Reducing Risk
10 Return 2.1 Risk-Return plane & Insolvency-Return plane Fig1.2 Risk-Return Plane Asset Mix +Product Mix Product Mix (1) ( ,0.0285) Return ( ,0.0311) (2) Risk Fig1.3 Insolvency-Return Plane Asset Mix +Product Mix Product Mix (0.1,0.0311) (2) (1) (0.1,0.0285) 10% Insolvency
11 3.Condition of the Simulation
12 3.1 Base Rate of Calculating ( Policy Term 15 years, from Age 30 ) Interest rate Expected Rate 2.7% (=3% (r 0 ) 0.9) Actual Rate interest rate based on general probability model Mortality Operating expense rate l996 life table P e (10% probability of Insolvency) the process of mortality based on binomial distribution the process of operating expense rate based on inflation rate
13 3.2 Amounts of scheduled payment at maturity and at death ( gross premium = 1 ) expected operating expense rate Sums payable at maturity Sums payable at death Endowment % S = S= Special Endowment % S = S= Term % S = 0 S=
14 3.3 General Probability Model general form dr = a(bα - r)dt + r γ σβ dz a b α σ β γ Invest Invest Invest Inflation rate 0.5
15 3.4 Correlation Coefficient (ρ)( Assume the correlation coefficient (ρ) between investment models and inflation rate as base rate 0.5. Invest 1 Invest 2 Invest 3 Inflation rate Invest 1 Invest 2 Invest 3 Inflation rate ρ ρ ρ ρ
16 3.5 Asset Share Simulation AS(t+1) = { (P -E(t) + AS(t)) (1+r(t)) -S(t+1)q(x+t) } / (1-q(x+t)) 1 Risk / Return * Return is defined as the average of return rate. * Risk is defined as standard deviation of return rate. 2 Probability of insolvency Probability of insolvency is defined as the probability that the asset share (at maturity) is below the liability reserve.
17 4.Results of the Simulation
18 4.1 Effect of Product Portfolio on Reducing Risk Figure3.3 Effect of product portfolio on reducing insolvencyiin risk- return relationship j return produc t portfolio risk
19 4.2 Effect of Product Portfolio on Reducing insolvency Figure3.4 Effect of product portfolio on reducing ins olvencyiin insolvency- return relationship j return product portfolio insolvency( )
20 4.3 Probability of Insolvency by source of profit for Product Portfolio Single Product Endowment Special Endowment Term Product Portfolio (E:T=7:3) Profit from all source Investment Profit Mortality Profit Expense Profit 10.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 4.4 % 35.5 % 35.1 % 32.0 % 34.2 % 35.7 % 36.1 % 36.2 % 36.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
21 5.Structure Analysis of the Reducing Risk by Product Mix
22 5.1 Correlation Coefficient by Source of Profit Correlation Coefficient Invest Endowment Term Mortality Expense Invest Mortality Expense Invest 00 Endow ment Mortality Expense Invest Term Mortality Expense
23 5.2 Relation between Sources of Profit and Total Profit each source of profit each source of profit total profit and loss Endowment insurance total profit and loss Term insurance
24 6.Conclusion
25 Thank You - The End -
26 Thank You - The End -
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