3 Years Since the Kim Jong Eun Regime

Transcription

1 3 Years Since the Kim Jong Eun Regime Lee Myung <Situation in North Korea> I. Politics and Military 1) Various political meetings - March 8 th : Party Politburo Meeting - March 9 th : Election on Representative of the Supreme People s Assembly - March 16 th and April 26 th : Central Military Commission Meeting - April 9 th : 1 st Meeting of the Supreme People s Assembly - September 25 th : 2 nd Meeting of the Supreme People s Assembly 2) Establishment event for Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il Statues, as well as idolization of Kim Jong Eun 3) Change in members of the high class of the military and in-depth military training 4) Missile test including short and middle range missiles 5) Open events to highlight Kim Jong Eun - Total 132 open events from January to August this year 6) Based on North Korean media, recent disappearance of Kim Jong Eun is not because of a fatal disease Economy and Society 1) Construction Activities - Scientist street in Pyongyang - Professors Apartment - Large scale stock-raising farm

2 - Emphasizes leadership of Kim Jong Eun through construction 2) Inviting foreign capital and developing tourist attractions by presenting 6 new Special Economic Zones, and giving autonomy to factories and enterprises - Since Spring 2013, the regime gave 1,000 pyeong of land to each farmer <Foreign Affairs Situation> I. Strengthening foreign affairs activity by changing the heads of the foreign affairs department to people with significant experience. 1) Lee Su Yong, former North Korea Ambassador to Switzerland, to Foreign Minister - Lee Su Yong played an active position at the recent meeting discussing North Korean human rights in the 69 th session of the UN General Assembly by saying that North Korea will provide necessary cooperation and contact 2) Kang Suk Ju, former First Vice Foreign Minister of the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to Secretary in charge of international business of the Party - Kang Suk Ju recently visited various European countries and defended human rights in North Korea <Toward South Korea> 3 high-ranking officials of North Korea, Hwang Byeong Seo, Choi Ryong Hae, and Kim Yang Gun, attended the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games this year I. Background 1) This year marks 20years since Kim Il Sung signed the Document of Unification of Koreas 2) In August this year, the South Korean government suggested the second high level talks to North Korea 3) North Korea persistently called to lift 5.24 Measure, to stop sending leaflets to North Korea, to open tourism to Mt. Keumkang, to implement the 6.15 Joint Declaration and 10.4 Declaration, etc. 4) Kang Suk Ju and Lee Su Yong spoke about North Korean human rights in international meetings

3 5) South Korean President Park criticised North Korean human rights in the 69 th session of the UN General Assembly 6) The North Korean sport team ranked 7 th in the 17 th Asian Games Analysis 1) It is assumed that the 3 high officials visit to the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games was organized right after the second high level talks between North and South Korea - Advantages for North Korea: 1 2 To give enough pressure to lift the 5.24 Measure, to stop the sending of leaflets to North Korea; implementing 6.15 and 10.4 Declarations before the second high level talks so that North Korea can foresee South Korea s claim during the talks North Korea can save face by accepting the South s request of the second high level talks 2) Meaning of what the 3 North Korean high officials said: 1 Hwang Byeong Seo, Director of the General Political Department: Deliver Kim Jong Eun s warm greetings to President Park Meaning: Delivering a personally hand written letter to President Park We opened up a small road, but let s open a big road from now on Means: North Korea took deep consideration in attending the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games and has interest in improvement of relations between North and South Korea through the second high level talks 2 Kim Yang Gun, Party Secretary in charge of relations with South Korea: We came here with hope for improving relations between North and South Korea Means: North Korea has an interest in improving relations between North and South Korea 3 Choi Ryong Hae, Party Secretary and Commissioner of Korean Sports Committee: Because of South Korean peoples selfless cheer, the North Korean team were able to achieve good results in the Incheon Asian Games

4 Means: They extend their appreciation to the South Korean government for supporting the North Korean sport team 3) Meeting with South Korean officials - Director of the National Security Office, Minister of Unification, Prime Minister, Representative of Saenuri Party, etc. I Conclusion 1) North Korea shows the stability of the Kim Jong Eun regime by shaving the 3 high-ranking officials appearing in the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games 2) North Korea showing interest in improving North-South relations by attending the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games 3) Through these appearances, North Korea makes South Korea suggest the second high level talks and accepts it 4) North Korea securing leadership in the North-South relations and creating an advantageous situation for North Korea by understanding South Korea s atmosphere and will for talks with North Korea 5) North Korea delivers a warning to President Park about her criticism on North Korea on the international stage, including the UN, by rejecting meeting with her 6) North Korea inducing an atmosphere in South Korea to lift 5.24 Measure, to stop sending leaflets to North Korea, to implement 6.15 Joint Declaration and 10.4 Declaration < North Korea-China Relations> I. North Korea-China relations after the Korean War 1) North Korea asking China for political, military, and economic cooperation and support by emphasizing their close and solid alliance and friendship during the Kim Il Sung regime - Disagree on some problems with China but they generally understood each other - Previous Supreme Leader solved problems with China - Previous Supreme Leaders frequently visited China

5 Recent relations between North Korea and China 1) Relations with China have been frozen since North Korea launched longrange rocket Unha-3, carried out the third nuclear test, and executed Jang Sung-taek 2) Previous relations: China taming North Korea Current relations: North Korea taming China - Communications between each government and party decreased - China s cooperation with North Korea on the international stage decreased 3) Activation in economic trade through civilians - Trading between North Korean and Chinese trading companies is continuously increasing - North Korea developing various tourist attractions targeting Chinese tourists, so many Chinese tourists travel North Korea 4) North Korea strengthening investment attraction toward China - North Korea had an investment briefing in Dalian, China in September under the name of the Ministry of External Economic Affairs of North Korea I Conclusions 1) North Korea has two frontal tactics toward China - Cold relations between each government and party - Increasing trade between North Korean company and Chinese company - Strengthening Chinese companies investment in North Korea 2) It is assumed that current relations between North Korea and China will be continued for a while - In the early stage of the Kim Jong Eun regime, Kim Jong Eun rejected China s invitation, but if North Korea changes their position slightly, improvement in relations between the two countries is possible