International Actuarial Association Colloquium

Transcription

1 International Actuarial Association Colloquium Oslo, Norway June 7-10, 2015 The Inclusion of Homemakers and Household Labor into the Ecuadorian Social Security System Rodrigo Ibarra-Jarrín

2 Index INTRODUCTION SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT IN ECUADOR SOCIAL SECURITY IN ECUADOR REFORMS TO SOCIAL SECURITY LAW ACTUARIAL VALUATIONS CONCLUSIONS IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

3 Introduction Social Security System Social Security Reforms Household Labor Sustainability 55% national coverage Universalization of SS Rapid increase in coverage Approved in April 2015 Controversy Innovative Inclusion of homemakers into the Social Security System Short and long terms Financial Statements Actuarial Balances Projections Concerns IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

4 Socio-Economic Context in Ecuador 4

5 General Context IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Population 16.2 million Currency: US Dollar (since 2000) Inflation rate: 3.7% US $107 billion GDP Growth rate: 3.4% Exports: US $25.7 billion Imports: US $26.5 billion Main Export from Oil (52%) 5

6 Poverty Rates IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15.1% 3.9% 43.4% 19.7% Poverty Extreme Poverty 24.1% Urban Rural National 8.9% In the period of the poverty rate decreased in 13 percentage points Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (2014) 6

7 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Labor Market Economically Active Population 7.1 million Inactive Population 3.9 million Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (2014) 7

8 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Unemployment by Gender 9% 8% 8.3% 8.4% Male 7% 6.7% 6.4% Female 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.6% 4.1% 3.3% 3.7% 4.8% 5.4% 3.4% 4.9% 3.1% 4.9% 3.1% 2% 1% 0% Dec -07 Dec -08 Dec -09 Dec -10 Dec -11 Dec -12 Dec -13 Dec -14 Mar -15 Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (2014) 8

9 Social Security in Ecuador 9

10 Introduction to the Ecuadorian Social Security System Mandatory affiliation for active workers Voluntary affiliation for independent workers Managed by the Ecuadorian Institute of Social Security (IESS) 3.1 million contributors and 8.9 million beneficiaries 412 thousand pensioners Other Institutes: ISSFA ISSPOL IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

11 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Number of Beneficiaries Evolution of National Coverage Ecuadorian Institute of Social Security (million) Jun Years % growth rate in the number of beneficiaries in 6 years 11

12 Funds IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 General Pension Insurance Fund Healthcare Insurance Fund General Insurance of Labor Risks Fund Rural Social (farmers) Insurance Fund 12

13 Financing Sources - IESS 9.45% to 11.45% Obligatory contribution from employees 9.15% to 11.15% Obligatory contribution from employers 40% Government subsidy for pension payments IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

14 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Benefits for Covered Population Pensions for retirement Disability Widowhood Orphanage Healthcare Dental services Labor accidents (Work comp.) Rural Workers 14

15 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Financial Situation IESS General Pension Insurance Fund With Subsidy Without Subsidy US$ 5.1 billion deficit US$ 71.0 billion deficit (Projection: ) Source: Actuaria Study

16 Reforms to the Social Security Law 16

17 IAA IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - PBSS - R.Ibarra - R.Ibarra - June - June Reform Principles Gradual incorporation Only women No economic compensation Inclusion of homemakers and household labor Voluntary affiliation Retirement pensions after 240 contributions General Pension Insurance Fund 17

18 IAA Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Contributions per Household Income Household Income State Subsidy Affiliate Contribution Less than 50% of minimum wage More than 50% and less than 100% of minimum wage $ 9.20 $ 2.00 $ $ 9.00 More than 100% and less than 150% of minimum $ $ Over 150% of minimum wage $ 0.00 $ IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

19 IAA Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Pensions per Household Income Household Income Monthly Retirement Pensions Monthly Pensions for Total Invalidity Monthly Pensions for Absolute Invalidity Monthly Pensions for Death Contingencies Less than 50% of minimum wage More than 50% and less than 100% of minimum wage More than 100% and less than 150% of minimum wage Over 150% of minimum wage $ 77 $ 68 $ 77 $ 68 $ 111 $ 102 $ 111 $ 102 $ 159 $ 140 $ 159 $ 140 $ 213 $ 187 $ 213 $ 187 IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

20 IAA Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June 2015 Benefits Granted - Homemakers Retirement pensions Disability assistance Death compensation Widowhood Orphanage Funeral services IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

21 Financing Sources - Homemakers Contributions from homemakers Depends on household income Government subsidy Excess of profit sharing after ceiling is imposed IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

22 Actuarial Valuations 22

23 Scenarios for Projections Moderate Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario 75% Proportion of homemakers that will join the Social Security System 25% 50% IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

24 Results Current Optimistic Moderate Pessimistic Deficit Deficit Deficit Deficit $ 5.1 billion $ 6.4 billion $ 7.4 billion $ 9.0 billion IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

25 Conclusions 25

26 Conclusions With their voluntary affiliation, homemakers from around the country will be able to receive well-needed disability, retirement, and death benefits. There is a serious concern for the long-term financial stability of the IESS. The deficit of the General Pension Fund requires an urgent need for additional funding. The future of the IESS is in serous danger due to the decreasing birth rate and the increasing life expectancy. A lower number of active affiliates will have to support a higher number of pensioners IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

27 Conclusions There was a $ 5.1 billion USD actuarial deficit in the General Pension Fund, as of December 2010 (taken from the most up-to-date approved actuarial report). The incorporation of homemakers into the system will increase the deficit to $ 6.4 billion USD in the best case scenario and to $9.0 billion in the worst case scenario. Without the 40% government subsidy, the actuarial deficit in the current situation would reach $71.0 billion USD. With the incorporation of homemakers into the system, and without the 40% government subsidy, the deficit will increase to $72.2 billion USD in the best case scenario, and to $74.8 billion USD in the worst case scenario. We believe the best solution to this problem would be to create a separate fund specifically for homemakers and find other sources to finance it. IAA Oslo Colloquium - PBSS - R.Ibarra - June

28 End of Presentation QUESTIONS? Rodrigo IBARRA-JARRIN USFQ - CEO Actuaria Consultores in Ecuador 28

29 References Actuaria Consultores (2012): Consultoría Actuarial para la Revisión y Aprobación de los Balances Actuariales del Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social. Arroyo, M. (2015): Amas de Casa Esperanzadas. Vistazo. Asamblea Constituyente (2008): Constitución de La República del Ecuador. Congreso Nacional (2014): Ley de Seguridad Social. Lexis S.A. Correa, R. (2014): Ley Para la Justicia Laboral y Reconocimiento del Trabajo en el Hogar. Presidencia de la República. Dirección Nacional de Estudios (2014): Balances Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Social. Superintendencia de Bancos y Seguros. Durán, F. (2008): Diagnóstico del Sistema de Seguridad Social del Ecuador. Oficina Internacional del Trabajo. 29

30 References "Ecuador: Panorama General." Ecuador. Banco Mundial, 14 Nov Web. 12 Mar < IESS (2014): Tasas de aportación. IESS. "Intitución." Ecuador. IESS, 15 Sept Web. 13 Mar < Misión Y Visión. BIESS. Banco Del IESS, 1 Jan Web. 30 Mar < Pezo, F. (2014): Informe de Labores. IESS. "Población Y Demografía." Instituto Nacional De Estadística Y Censos. INEC, 1 Jan Web. 12 Mar < Proaño, P. (2015): Dirección del Sistema de Pensiones. IESS. 30