Strategic Plan Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of New Mexico

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1 Strategic Plan Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of New Mexico BACKGROUND Founded on July 1, 1945, the then Bureau of Business Research (BBR) was established in response to two major concerns of the day: 1) New Mexico s economy was lagging poorly, with the highest unemployment rate of any state in 1940, and 2) the University of New Mexico wanted to define for itself a significant role in providing community services and leadership. Thus, BBER was created at UNM as a way to focus university resources in an effort to foster the economic development of New Mexico. The economic well-being of New Mexico s residents, businesses, governments and non-profit organizations has been the primary motivating force for the institution throughout its history. From the beginning to the present, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) has focused on helping New Mexicans better understand the state s economy and the demographic characteristics of our population. This mission is undertaken for the very practical reasons that such understanding will help individuals in all facets of our economy make sound decisions and improved policy formulation. To this end, BBER collects and disseminates socioeconomic information, develops measures and forecasts of economic performance and population growth, and conducts in-depth socioeconomic research. These are the means by which BBER has pursued its quest for understanding a quest that is at the core of the institution. Today, the BBER maintains a major depository of socioeconomic data that is open to the public the Data Bank; a content-heavy Internet site filled with data tables a monthly publication of economic indicators and topical articles New Mexico Business; a contract research program that studies a wide variety of economic and demographic issues; and an economic forecasting service (FOR-UNM) that provides short-term projections of numerous economic variables for the state as a whole and each of the three metropolitan areas (Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe). In addition, BBER maintains close ties to the U.S. Census Bureau, along with the national community of demographers and information-providers. These programs include the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE), the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections (FSCPP) and the State Data Center/Business and Industry Data Center (SDC/BIDC) Program. Finally, since the early 1990s BBER has provided research and data through two Special Programs funded by the New Mexico State Legislature the Census Dissemination and Demographic Analysis Program and the Resource Geographic Information System (RGIS) Program. The former allows BBER to add significant value to basic Census Bureau data, while the latter promotes and utilizes GIS technologies for data dissemination and research. 1

2 BBER s MISSION, VISION, AND GOALS MISSION Contribute to the understanding of economic and demographic issues in New Mexico Collect and disseminate information, provide technical expertise and analyze and conduct applied research for a diverse constituency including community organizations, businesses, labor unions, government officials, academia, students and others. Through these efforts BBER will further the public service and educational missions of the University of New Mexico and contribute to the economic well-being of New Mexico residents. VISION BBER maintains the highest standards for quality, objective data collection, information dissemination, and research. These high standards build an unimpeachable reputation, making BBER New Mexico s leading authority on economic conditions, and the official source of demographic information and research. GOALS Provide access, awareness and understanding regarding demographic, economic and social data. Foster and sustain a rigorous and broad-based economic and demographic research program for the benefit of New Mexicans. Initiate communication, cultivate and maintain collaborative relationships with a broadbased spectrum of agencies and constituencies. Put BBER s finances on a sound foundation. Establish a continuing program for the professional development of BBER staff. CORE COMPETENCIES BBER has certain characteristics and core competencies that make it a unique and valuable institution. BBER has developed a highly trained and professional staff with advanced degrees (PhD and Masters) in the fields of economics, sociology/demography, planning and geography. This has created a unique organization, committed to economic and demographic study and dedicated to disseminating the results of that research and other relevant socioeconomic information. BBER has developed strong ties with federal, state and local government agencies, most notably the New Mexico departments of Labor, Health, and Taxation and Revenue. These ties afford BBER unique access to information and research. In particular, BBER has developed strong ties with the U.S. Census Bureau the nation s primary statistical agency. Through these associations, BBER maintains working relationships with the nation s demographic community and networks of information providers at the national and state levels. BBER houses and maintains a vast collection of economic and demographic information for New Mexico. This collection is a unique combination of print and electronic materials that blend sources from federal, state and local governments, along with private sector materials. BBER operates and maintains an up-to-date computer network and has extensive inhouse programming, statistical and modeling capabilities. BBER has a long-established program of occasional and continuing publications. BBER also maintains, updates and expands an internet web site. 2

3 BBER conducts an active educational outreach program that includes organizing conferences, workshops and training sessions, providing technical consultations and making presentations. BBER has developed a long-standing track record of providing accurate economic and demographic forecasts. This gives BBER the unique ability to add proven predictive models for the New Mexico economy and population to its core research program. BBER has developed a reputation for reliable and objective socioeconomic research. The adherence to high standards of objectivity and quality allows BBER to become a uniquely trusted source. REQUIREMENTS FOR SUCCESS The following must be accomplished to ensure that BBER continues to be successful: Well-developed interactive partnerships with government, business and non-profit data users, information providers, and decision makers. Adherence to objective standards in the selection and outcome of research projects. Adherence to high standards of self-assessment regarding BBER s research, forecasting and data dissemination roles. Continued emphasis on the practical application of our research, forecasts and data dissemination. Stable funding from multiple sources. GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND STRATEGIES Goal 1 Provide access, awareness and understanding, regarding demographic, economic and social data. Objective 1.1 Foster BBER s status as the premier repository for New Mexico socioeconomic and demographic information. Strategy Maintain, update and expand the collection of New Mexico socioeconomic and demographic information held in BBER s Data Bank. Strategy Establish and maintain a system to organize and retrieve BBER unpublished research materials, including working papers and other background documents. Strategy Create a searchable, electronic database of BBER holdings, providing a comprehensive list of sources (i.e., bibliographic records) for researchers and other data users. Strategy Provide for the preservation and archiving of socioeconomic and demographic information, addressing issues such as document deterioration and the long-term retrieval of electronic products. Strategy Ensure continued prompt response to individual information requests from all parts of the data-user community (business, government, news media, nonprofit organizations, and university researchers). Strategy Maintain, update and expand BBER s Internet site a content-heavy site that contains socioeconomic data for New Mexico and geographic subdivisions of the state (e.g., counties and cities). The site also provides definitions, methodology 3

4 statements, technical guides for using Census Bureau products, and hyperlinks to appropriate state, local, federal and private sites. Strategy Compile, publish and distribute New Mexico Business (NMB), a printed, monthly newsletter, containing feature articles, numerous statewide economic indicators, and socioeconomic measures for selected counties and cities. Strategy Compile and disseminate socioeconomic data tables and narratives in fulfillment of Special Program obligations. The Special Programs are initiatives that are funded by general fund Legislative appropriation and include the Census Dissemination and Demographic Analysis Program, and the Resource Geographic Information Systems Program. Strategy Sustain contractual obligations with entities outside UNM for purposes of mass data distribution. These contracts may require the provision of data tables and related narratives to entities such as local newspapers and economic development organizations. These entities most often publish the data, themselves. Strategy Increase public awareness of BBER data collections and data products by advertising via mass mailings, conferences, and other means. Objective 1.2 Maintain and enhance BBER s status as a comprehensive resource for assistance in understanding and using socioeconomic and demographic information. Strategy Provide one-on-one consultations with data users, supplying definitions of concepts, documentation on statistical methodology, and advice as to how to use the data. Strategy Interpret the meaning of economic and demographic trends for individuals, groups of data users, and the news media and convey this through interviews, presentations or publications. Strategy Sponsor, organize and conduct data-user conferences and training workshops regarding the acquisition, meaning and use of socioeconomic and demographic data. Strategy Make presentations to special interest groups, business associations, government agencies, civic groups, non-profit organizations and UNM classes, among others, regarding the acquisition, meaning and use of socioeconomic and demographic data. Strategy Maintain and enhance the expertise of BBER s information specialists by encouraging enrollment in appropriate university classes, membership in professional associations (e.g., the New Mexico Library Association), attendance at professional workshops and conferences, and participation in programs affiliated with the Census Bureau, such as the State Data Center/Business and Industry Data Center (SDC/BIDC) Program. Strategy Increase public awareness of BBER technical assistance services, conferences and workshops by advertising via mass mailings, conferences, and other means. Objective 1.3 To the extent possible ensure that the results of BBER research efforts become a readily accessible source of socioeconomic information for New Mexico. Strategy Print the results of BBER research efforts as individual reports. 4

5 Strategy Print articles derived from these research efforts in NMB. Strategy Post research results on BBER s Internet site. Strategy Present the findings of BBER research efforts to conferences, workshops and UNM classes. Strategy Advertise the availability of BBER research reports and articles. Goal 2 Foster and sustain a rigorous and broad-based economic and demographic research program for the benefit of New Mexicans. Objective 2.1 Sustain the core research program Strategy Maintain the basic FOR-UNM Forecasting Service, projecting the present mix of economic indicators for the state as a whole and New Mexico s three metropolitan areas Strategy Continue the basic population estimates and projections program, supplying currently defined input databases to the Census Bureau, reviewing Census Bureau city and county population estimates, and projecting county population by age and gender. Strategy Continue existing contract research services. Respond to requests from both government and private sectors. Research topics could include any of the following examples: analyses of state or selected sub-state economies; specific industry or labor market studies; financial and capital markets; public finance issues; economic and fiscal impacts of particular industries; and analyses of particular economic conditions, such as New Mexico s high and persistent poverty. Objective 2.2 Improve the quality of intercensal population and demographic estimates for New Mexico. Strategy Develop new approaches to population estimates and projections of New Mexico s population. Explore and evaluate the possibility of incorporating new explanatory variables. Strategy Build accurate and reliable databases that can be used as new inputs to BBER s population estimates and projections, and the next decennial census. These databases will include but not be limited to driver licenses, state income tax data, utilities, building permits and manufactured home inspections, vital statistics, and employment (ES202) data. Strategy Develop as much as possible a uniform and consistent set of age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity estimates. Strategy Influence changes in official U.S. Census Bureau methodology for intercensal population estimates. Strategy Increase the geographic coverage of population estimates to include New Mexico cities. Strategy Create a statewide population taskforce to help improve the population estimates. 5

6 Strategy Continue and expand collaborative efforts with the U.S. Census Bureau through the FSCPE Program. Objective 2.3 Expand and enhance BBER s population projection activities. Strategy Increase the number of demographic variables to include race and Hispanic ethnicity. Strategy Increase the geographic coverage of population projections to include New Mexico cities. Strategy Continue and expand collaborative efforts with the U.S. Census Bureau through the FSCPP Program. Objective 2.4 Expand and enhance BBER s FOR-UNM economic forecasting service. Strategy Generate and test additional indicators of economic performance. Strategy Attempt to develop an index of leading indicators for New Mexico. Strategy Expand the geographic coverage of the FOR-UNM model to include non-metropolitan counties. Develop the capacity to do sub-state regional analysis. Strategy Cultivate new constituencies for forecast services including the banking community, Tribal governments, and city and county governments. Strategy If funding allows, work with UNM econometricians to enhance the FOR- UNM model. Strategy Develop new products to serve additional clientele. Objective 2.5 As opportunities arise, and funding is available enhance and expand the BBER s research program, including economic and fiscal impacts along with studies that examine welfare and welfare reform, environmental equity, rural-urban disparity, health, poverty, and education. Strategy Obtain the capability to perform input-output analysis using the IMPLAN Model and explore potential applications. Strategy Create a broad-based, unique database composed of state and federal tax data from the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department linked to ES202 data from the New Mexico Department of Labor and welfare data from the New Mexico Human Services Department. Strategy Develop a stronger survey and qualitative research capability. Identify potential clients that employ survey and qualitative research. Seek funding for research involving surveys and qualitative research. Consult with state, local, and private agencies on survey design and analysis. Strategy As opportunities arise expand BBER s research activities to include poverty issues as they relate to race/ethnicity, foreign and domestic migration, gender, geographic location, governmental policies, and labor market dynamics. Strategy The BBER is interested in moving into the following areas as opportunities arise and funding is available: 6

7 a. Economic development issues as they impact demographic trends and population distribution. b. Environmental equity issues as they affect economic development and health In New Mexico. c. Rural-urban disparity issues in New Mexico. d. Issues relating to the digital, technological and informational disparity in New Mexico. Goal 3 Initiate communication, cultivate and maintain collaborative relationships with a broad-based spectrum of agencies and constituencies. Objective 3.1 Maintain and improve existing relationships with public and private entities currently served by BBER. Strategy Improve communication with current and past clients and patrons by developing a method to solicit feedback concerning BBER products and services. Possibilities include surveys, interviews and roundtable discussions. Strategy Develop a panel of business leaders that BBER can access for insights into the local economy. Strategy Increase FOR-UNM outreach efforts to the banking and business community. Solicit feedback to better understand needs for economic information and forecasting services. Tailor products to meet needs. Strategy Be available to speak on the economy, population trends, etc. to different groups. Strategy To increase our statewide exposure, expand outreach to regional councils of governments, the Municipal League, the Association of Counties. Objective 3.2 Develop a method for assessing the information needs of potential public, private and community-based clients, with particular adherence to the University s mission to identify and reach out to underserved communities. Strategy Identify and compile a list of potential clients and organizations as well as professional forums to increase exposure to and circulation of BBER s products and services. Strategy Develop a system of methods to introduce BBER to identified potential clients. This could include mailing out information, telephone contacts, BBERsponsored open-houses and attending forums sponsored by potential client organizations. Strategy Develop a method to solicit critical feedback from a diverse group of community members and professionals concerning the content and analysis of BBER products. Objective 3.3 Encourage closer ties with faculty, staff and students in other units at UNM and other educational institutions in the state. Strategy Initiate outreach and explore possible collaboration with key departments: the Anderson School, Public Administration, Community and Regional 7

8 Planning, the Health Sciences, Economics, Sociology and Political Science. Increase contact with other peer research institutes. Strategy Continue to provide guest lectures in UNM classes. Inform students and faculty of BBER Data Bank and other resources. Strategy Continue to hire UNM students for research and other positions. Strategy Seek on-campus exposure through news media and other sources. Strategy Continue to prioritize requests for data and technical assistance from other units within UNM. Strategy Encourage closer ties with similar researchers and faculty at other higher educational institutions in New Mexico. Objective 3.4 Initiate deliberate steps to form a BBER advisory board. Strategy Research the existence and structure of advisory boards for similar organizations. Strategy Conduct further internal BBER discussions concerning the role and composition of a BBER advisory board. Strategy Identify and interview potential advisory board members to assess their views on the desirability and role of a BBER advisory board. Goal 4 Put BBER s finances on a sound foundation. Objective 4.1 Reduce and keep administrative overhead to a minimum. Strategy Consolidate administrative functions within IARS. Administrative staff for the organization should consist of an accountant, an administrative assistant, and at most two students. Strategy With respect to the daily processing and accounting for revenue and expenditures, establish an open process which ensures timeliness, accuracy, and electronic availability of status. Implement cash handling, accounts receivable, and invoicing in electronic form. Strategy Streamline processes to reduce duplication of effort, without sacrificing accuracy, security and completeness of record-keeping and ease of information retrieval. Avoid keying/recording same information more than once. Strategy Computer systems, which are BBER s lifeblood, will be installed and the hardware maintained by DGR. Strategy Where possible to track and appropriate, charges should be made to project accounts. This includes materials and supplies, travel, telephone calls, and copying but also administrative staff time involved with accounting, document production, attending to computers. Strategy Structure things internally to be compatible with and to promote efficiencies in operating within the broad range of UNM processes and procedures. 8

9 Objective 4.2 BBER will seek ways to reduce non-personnel operating expenditures without sacrificing other objectives. Strategy Examine different categories of expenditure to see if areas can target for reduction. Strategy Foster staff awareness of what things cost and of the need to balance benefits with costs. Strategy Reduce printing/copying costs. Objective 4.3 Preserve and expand on-going funding for key areas, e.g., FOR-UNM, population estimates and projections. Strategy Work hard to keep core funding for FOR-UNM program, including state contract and subscriptions. Work to expand subscriptions to FOR-UNM Bulletin and to develop new products for new constituencies. Strategy Work to keep continued flow of funds for Census Project and seize opportunities to increase funding from this source. Strategy Work with group of state agencies and others in need of population estimates, projections and demographic information to develop continual and predictable source of funding for these activities. Objective 4.4 Seek on-going sources of funding for permanent staff to reduce reliance on small contracts and payment from scarce overhead dollars. Strategy Continue and expand, if possible, BBER s participation in the RGIS project. Strategy Seek projects, like those from the State Highway and Transportation Department, where work can be scheduled around other time commitments. Objective 4.5 Make contracts work for BBER. Strategy Respond positively to contract work which meets the following criteria: a. Complements FOR-UNM, our populations estimates/projections program, and our information services programs by furthering an understanding of the state s economy, population and demography, including: (1) the state s economic relations and other ties to larger regions and the rest of the world; (2) the economies of particular regions of the state; (3) particular industries, sectors and subsectors, e.g., health services, call centers; (4) labor markets; (5) financial markets and access to capital; (6) the informal economy. BBER is particularly interested in pursuing contract research that will generate new data and information on the economy and population and/or a deeper understanding of relationships. We also recognize the importance of developing new contacts who could be the source of future information on the economy and population. b. Is requested by state agencies, the legislature, local governments, or the university, provided that we have the expertise, can meet required deadlines and produce a professional, credible and defensible product, and that the funding provided will cover expected costs. 9

10 c. Requires our unique expertise and familiarity with the issues. BBER, by virtue of our expertise, will produce estimates/develop an analyses that provide a sound basis for decision-making and policy development. Areas where the above holds include the following: population estimates and projections economic estimates and projections (particularly employment and income) economic and fiscal impact analyses projects requiring knowledge of state and local government finances in New Mexico d. Is a research priority interest and is listed under objective 2.4 above. e. Provides an opportunity for BBER staff to work with communities/regional planning agencies, to evaluate economic development options. f. Presents an opportunity for BBER to collaborate with DGR. g. Presents an opportunity for collaboration with other economists/social scientists/planners at this or other universities or will strengthen ties to our counterparts working in government agencies. h. Is of keen interest to particular staff and/or presents an opportunity for growth in direction(s) deemed to be desirable, provided that the staff in question have the expertise and capacity to handle the work and the time to take on the work without sacrificing other commitments. i. Presents an opportunity to work with an identifiable underserved community. Strategy BBER will consider carefully before taking contract work which: a. Could jeopardize our reputation and our credibility as the issue is emotionally charged and BBER s involvement is unlikely to resolve what are essentially intractable differences. b. Could place such intense demands on the total organization as to jeopardize our ability to do the on-going work of BBER. c. Involves substantial commitment of resources for which we have no hope of recovering costs, unless we decide as an organization that this is an investment we are willing to make. d. In which the client or project is of economic benefit to a very narrow constituency (e.g., an individual, specific small business), and there is consequently little public interest in the project. Strategy Improve budget estimates of project costs by using information on actual costs and by applying the rule that if something can go wrong it will. Strategy Improve project management by providing PI s with timely information on actual and projected expenditures for task completion. Goal 5 Establish a continuing program for the professional development for BBER staff. 10

11 Objective 5.1 Develop a method for staff members to develop skills though internal communication with other staff members. Strategy Encourage staff members to conduct informal in-house trainings in their areas of expertise. Strategy Conduct in-house seminars on selected research findings. Strategy Use brainstorming sessions to enhance research and to share staff experience, knowledge and expertise. Objective 5.2 Provide support for staff members to develop skills through sources outside of BBER. Strategy Invite speakers from UNM, or other governmental or private agencies (local, national, or international), on topics that are useful or of interest to BBER staff. Strategy Encourage staff to enhance their technical skills and expand their knowledge by taking relevant UNM courses. Strategy Encourage and provide support for staff to attend training workshops, sessions, conferences to acquire knowledge of and skills in cutting edge research technology and methodology. Strategy Encourage and provide support to staff to publish results in professional journals and present papers at conferences. DEFINITIONS OF SELECTED TERMS Data Bank Collection The collection includes both print and electronic materials and covers topics such as, personal income, gross product, employment by industry, business sales, tourism, construction permits, mineral production, school enrollment and finance, vital statistics, incidence of crime, population totals, socioeconomic characteristics of the population, and published BBER research. In general, socioeconomic and demographic data for New Mexico and its geographic subdivisions are the focus of the collection, but related information for the western U.S. and the nation as a whole are included as appropriate. Data Bank Information and Technical Assistance Requests These requests come to the Data Bank from individuals via telephone, personal visit, FAX, or letter. Responses include providing pre-existing, electronic or printed data tables; creating data tables from original research or other published sources; providing definitions or documentation on statistical methods; providing technical assistance in how to use or apply the data; providing citations of sources; and making referrals to appropriate organizations. The Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) and the Federal- State Cooperative Program for Population Projections (FSCPP) These programs are networks of state demographers that are affiliated with the U.S. Census Bureau through its Population Division. These networks facilitate exchange of information and technology in the field of population estimation and projections. BBER serves as a liaison between the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and local and state agencies. The relationship between BBER and the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Branch is formalized in a Memorandum of Agreement that is renewed yearly. Full participation in the programs requires regular reporting of local data on births, deaths, school enrollment, and selected group quarters; quality checking of administrative records, population estimates, and population projections; participation in the Spring and Fall meetings of the FSCPE (Spring meeting only for FSCPP); and participation in 11

12 other public forums as necessary. (The Fall meeting of the FSCPE is a business and technical meeting where new information and estimation techniques are shared among the various states and the Census Bureau. The State Data Center/Business and Industry Data Center (SDC/BIDC) Program This program is a nationwide network of research and information dissemination organizations that are affiliated with the U.S. Census Bureau, Customer Liaison Office (CLO) through a formal, renewable Memorandum of Understanding. SDC/BIDC programs are established within each state and maintain close working relationships with Census Bureau regional offices, along with CLO. (The Denver Regional Office covers New Mexico.) The New Mexico SDC/BIDC Program includes university research departments, state government agencies, local and regional planning departments, public libraries, university and junior college libraries, small business development centers and economic development organizations. In all, there are 26 separate organizations in the New Mexico SDC/BIDC Program. BBER is a coordinating agency in the Program. Full participation includes adherence to established core competencies that require the network to disseminate Census Bureau data; provide research, analysis, technical assistance and consultation; customized programming and product development; education and promotion of censuses; training; an Internet presence; and participation in national or regional meetings. Although the Census Bureau does not provide funding to the state programs it does provide an array of electronic and printed data and geographic products, along with training and support for the data centers. Participation requires regular contact with Census Bureau staff, ensuring an exchange of knowledge regarding database developments and an understanding of underlying data concepts and methods. 12