LONDON RIVERSIDE OPPORTUNITY AREA ENERGY MASTERPLAN

Transcription

1 Intended for London Borough of Havering Document type Report Date 31 October 2013 LONDON RIVERSIDE OPPORTUNITY AREA ENERGY MASTERPLAN

2 LONDON RIVERSIDE OPPORTUNITY AREA Revision Final Version 4 Date 2013/10/31 Made by Anthony Riddle, Olof Jangsten, Mairead Kennedy Checked by Anthony Riddle Approved by Crispin Matson Description London Riverside Opportunity Area Energy Masterplan Ref Report Ramboll Hannemanns Allé 53 DK-2300 Copenhagen S Denmark T F Ramboll Energy 60 Newman Street London W1T 3DA T +44 (0)

3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1. Introduction, Background and Methodology Introduction and Purpose Previous Work Undertaken Layout of Report Energy Demand Appraisal Existing and Planned Centres of Development Heat Mapping Assessment for Centres of Development Overall Demands in Energy Supply Appraisal East London Sustainable Energy Facility (ELSEF), Havering Riverside Employment Area Thames Gateway Energy Facility (Chinook) Dagenham Dock TEG Anaerobic Digestion Facility Sustainable Industries Park Barking Power station, Dagenham Dock Riverside Waste Water Treatment Plant Frog Island MBT Plant The Ford Motor Company works at Dagenham Sustainable Industries Park Plot Existing or Planned Small Scale Embedded CHP within the LROA Opportunities Beyond LROA But Within the Greater Vicinity of LROA Other Low Grade Waste Heat Opportunities within LROA Role of Accumulator Storage Summary of Supply Opportunities and Merit Order of production Heat Network Opportunity Appraisal Methodology Scenarios Modelled Summary of Business Case and Carbon Reduction Potential for modelled Scenarios Sensitivity Analysis Recommended Development Strategy and Outline Phasing Plan Heat Network Infrastructure Proposals Heat Network Control Concept Route Assessment and Viability Distribution Pumping Stations and Heat Network Primary Control Centre Heat Offtake Arrangement from ELSEF Condenser Heat Recovery from Steam Turbine Heat Recovery from Internal Combustion Engine CHP Heat Recovery Tertiary Treatment Tanks in Waste Water Treatment Facilities Heat Recovery from National Grid and UKPN Transformer stations 64

4 5.9 Back up Boilers to Main Heat Production Assets Accumulators Consumer Connections Safeguarding to Connect to the Royal Docks Heat Network in London Borough of Newham Outline of Possible Operational Structure of the Longer Term, Wide Area Opportunity Project Outline Risk Assessment Next Steps and Implementation Plan Progressing Opportunities to Secure Major Low Carbon Heat Sources Stakeholder Engagement Next Steps for London Boroughs of Havering and Barking & Dagenham References 81 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 Summary of Heat Mapping Undertaken for LROA APPENDIX 2 Summary of Low Carbon Energy Supply Infrastructure within LROA APPENDIX 3 Investment and Carbon Appraisal Model Assumptions APPENDIX 4 Outline Risk Appraisal APPENDIX 5 Cost And Carbon Plans for Identified Strategic Opportunity TABLES Table 1 Rainham West Development Summary Table Table 2 Beam Reach Development Summary Table Table 3 Barking Riverside Initial Phasing Table 4 Barking Riverside Estimated Phasing Table 5 List of Identified Heat production assets within and in the vicinity of London Riverside Opportunity Area Table 6 Assumed Production Hierarchy in Modelling Table 7 List of Heat Network Scenarios Modelling Table 8 Summary of Modelling Results Table 9: Heat Exchanger Space Requirements Table 10 List of Identified Heat production assets within and in the vicinity of London Riverside Opportunity Area Table 11 Carbon intensity and cost of heat production for identified assets within and in the vicinity of London Riverside Opportunity Area Table 12 Breakdown of investment Costs for identified assets within and in the vicinity of London Riverside Opportunity Area Table 13: Heat Tariff Assumptions Table 14: Assumed unit cost of Heat Production from ELSEF Table 15: Heat Network Design Parameter Table 16 Cost and Carbon Plan for Scenario 1 ~ Area-Wide Strategic Network Scenario

5 Table 17 Cost and Carbon Plans for Scenario 1 ~ Initial Network local to ELSEF facility FIGURES Figure 1 Proposed Scheme Layout Figure 2 Existing and Planned Centres of Development Figure 3 Projected Growth in Heat Demand over a 40 year period Figure 4 Heat Map of London Riverside Opportunity Area Figure 5 Indicative Merit Order of Production Figure 6 Spatial Layout Plan for Identified Heat Supply Opportunities Figure 7 Indicative Outlines for Scenarios 1 & Figure 8 Summary Chart of Initial Network Modelling Scenarios Figure 9 Scenario 1 - Annual Heat Demand (average) profile Figure 10 Annual Supply Profile Scenario Figure 11 Summary Chart of Area-Wide Strategic Network Modelling Scenarios Figure 12 Scenario 2 -Annual Heat Demand Consumption Profile Figure 13 Annual Supply Profile Scenario Figure 14 Economic Sensitivity Analysis for Scenario Figure 15 Variation in IRR with Sensitivity Analysis for Scenario Figure 16 Scenario 1 Variation of NPV with Discount Rate Figure 17: Economic Sensitivity Analysis for Scenario Figure 18 Variation in IRR with Sensitivity Analysis for Scenario Figure 19 Scenario 2 Variation of NPV with Discount Rate Figure 20 Z factor - IRR Sensitivity for Scenario 2 (Area-Wide Strategic Network) Figure 21 Z-Factor - IRR Sensitivity for Scenario 1 (Initial Network). 52 Figure 22 Network Route Figure 23 Heat Network Development Timescales Figure 24 Typical pressure distance diagram for variable volume network Figure 25: Typical Flow and Return Temperature Characteristics (image courtesy GLA) Figure 26 Proposed Network Route Figure 27 Typical Distribution Pumping Station Schematic Arrangement Figure 28 Proposed Location options for Primary Control Centre and Main Distribution Pumping Station for Heat Network Figure 29: Indicative Heat Offtake proposals for ELSEF Figure 30 Distribution of Heat Demand under Initial Cluster Opportunity (Scenario 1) Figure 31 Distribution of Heat Demand under Fully Built Out Opportunity (Scenario 2) Figure 32 Indicative Arrangement for power plant condenser heat extraction Figure 33 Indicative Arrangement for Heat Recovery from Internal Combustion Engine CHP Figure 34: Indicative Arrangement for Heat Recovery from Waste Water Treatment Works Figure 35: Indicative Arrangement for Heat Recovery from National Grid and UKPN Transformer stations Figure 36: Indicative Accumulator Configuration... 66

6 Figure 37 Heat Exchanger Substation Figure 38 - Typical HIU without front cover Figure 39: Typical Substation Connection Arrangement (image courtesy of LDA/GLA) Figure 40: Indicative Organisational Structure for Wide Area Opportunity Figure 41 Assumed unit cost of Heat Production from ELSEF... 93

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Objectives and Approach The London Borough of Havering, with the support of the Greater London Authority and in conjunction with a local renewable energy from waste (EfW) project Biossence (East London) Limited (BEL), have commissioned Ramboll to establish an Energy Master Plan (EMP) for the London Riverside Opportunity Area (LROA) based on a district energy network. The purpose of the Energy Masterplan has been to set out a framework to enable LROA to support the Mayor s low carbon aspirations for London Riverside and to identify opportunities for decentralised energy production and distribution to meet current and future energy needs of LROA. Specifically, the purpose has been to:- Focus on a district heating network serving the LROA, supplied initially from the East London Sustainable Energy Facility (ELSEF) being developed by Biossence East London Limited (BEL) and latterly from other possible heat sources both in and adjacent to the LROA. Establish the role of satellite district-heating networks across LROA that could interconnect over time to supply locally produced low to zero carbon and waste energy sources. This Energy Masterplan is intended to be appended to the LROA Planning Framework (PF) as a supporting document to inform the next stage of work that will address procurement and commercial issues around developing a heat network for LROA. The work has involved the following stages:- Carrying out an energy demand appraisal for LROA to 2055, focusing on heat demands suitable for supplying through a heat network; Identifying existing, planned and potential future low carbon supply sources within LROA and establishing associated costs and carbon content of heat production from these assets; Appraising a number of potential heat network opportunities and developing and assessing them in relation to economic and carbon saving potential; Developing heat network infrastructure proposals together with a route assessment and a possible operational structure to support the identified opportunity; and Conducting an outline risk assessment, developing a phasing plan and making recommendations for next steps to take forward the project opportunity. Summary Findings The projected long term demand within LROA, once all development has been fully built, out is estimated to be 117 GWh/a. Given the scale of demand and the abundance of low carbon supply assets within LROA and the strategic location of LROA in relation to large existing and planned centres of heat demand within London, there is considered to be a strong political and economic case for developing a district heating network to serve LROA. Practical delivery of a heat network would, however, be contingent on large scale planned redevelopment within LROA coming forward and the anticipated timescales for this indicate that a wide area heat network is not likely to be viable until around 2030, with investment taking place in The required scale of investment in 2029 would depend on the outcome of proposals to implement a series of cluster networks/community heat networks in the interim period. The Fairview Industrial Park, Beam Reach South and Barking Town Centre have been identified as locations for cluster networks connecting both existing anchor loads and new development opportunities whilst Barking Riverside, LSIP, South Dagenham and Rainham have been identified as locations for community heat networks constructed around major or individual redevelopment opportunities. Of these, the cluster network around Fairview industrial estate and Beam Reach South Estate is of particular interest given the opportunity to extract heat from the planned ELSEF plant. Page 7

8 The available capacity reserved by BEL and envisaged for the first stage of heat offtake is considered to be reasonable based on the modelling carried out in this report. It is noted that further optimisation could be carried out once detailed cost information is made available. The remaining cluster networks at Barking Riverside, South Dagenham, Rainham, LSIP and Barking Town Centre are envisaged as being a supplied via community heat networks with gas CHP or temporary gas boilers. The projected demand for a cluster network serving the Fairview Industrial Park and Beam Reach South is estimated to be 13 GWh/a and the majority of these loads are from existing buildings and could accept heat from ELSEF as soon as a network is in place. The initial cluster network serving Fairview Industrial Park and Beam Reach South could either be constructed as a local distribution network or as the first stage of a wider area network intended to supply the whole of LROA in the longer term. The latter option would require constructing the initial section of network so that it is capable of delivering sufficient capacity to Barking Riverside, South Dagenham, Rainham and Barking Town Centre in the future. Whilst this has clear strategic benefits, it also carries a risk in relation to heat off-take that may never materialise. Nevertheless, the scale of proposed regeneration suggests that the case for safeguarding is strong, as is the case for safeguarding for a future connection into the Royal Docks (given the projected scale of development in that area and the abundance of low carbon heat capacity within LROA that could supply it). The appropriate way forward depends on a number of factors which will need to be further evaluated at the next stage. Assuming that the cluster networks identified above do come forward in the interim period, the required investment in a wide area network in 2029 would need to cover:- Extension of the initial cluster network serving the Fairview industrial Park and Beam Reach South to form a wide area network; Connection via a series of substations to the initial cluster networks at Barking Town Centre, Barking Riverside, LSIP and new developments serving South Dagenham and Rainham; Investment in a second stage of heat off-take at ELSEF together with investment in a thermal store accumulator and additional gas boilers for peaking and back up purposes. The available capacity envisaged for this stage of heat off-take seems reasonable based on the modelling assumptions in this report, although further optimisation could be carried out once detailed cost information is made available. The abundance of low carbon supply infrastructure within LROA and the strategic opportunity to supply Royal Docks from the wide area heat network serving LROA may lead to additional investment in other third party heat off-takes at this time, although this has not been accounted for in the present cost plans. Key Economic and Carbon Indicators for Area-Wide Strategic Network The calculated 25 year internal rate of return for the Area-Wide Strategic Network, in which no development takes place until 2030 when over 60% of the heat demand is in place, is of the order of 9.4%. The total capital cost for the scheme would be 31.4 M, of which the heat offtake investment costs are 1.3M. The scheme would deliver 55% savings in CO 2 emissions relative to the business as usual case. In the event that the project could also supply heat to the Ford Motor plant, which has a very high heat demand over a short connection distance, the internal rate of return would increase to over 11%. Safeguarding for future connection into Newham Royal docks 1 would reduce the expected internal rate of return to around 8.5%. The cost of safeguarding for network capacity would be in the order of 1.3M relative to the cost of delivering the Area-Wide Strategic Network. The impact of no future connection (or safeguarding) to Barking Town Centre would be to reduce the expected internal rate of return to around 4.7%. The viability of a wide area network therefore appears to be highly contingent on future delivery of heat to Barking Town Centre. 1 On the assumption that the interconnection is not constructed. The potential IRR assuming heat sales into the Royal Docks has not been modelled. Page 8

9 Key Economic and Carbon Indicators for Initial Cluster Network serving Fairview Industrial Park and Beam Reach South A distribution network local to ELSEF and sized only for the loads that it can deliver up to 2030 represents a more attractive prospect in terms of IRR than an initial network sized and safeguarded for future connection into the Area-Wide Strategic Network for LROA. The internal rate of return for this option is approximately 11% and the total capital cost for the scheme would be 5.0M. The scheme would deliver 78% savings in CO 2 emissions relative to the business as usual case, due primarily to the fact that the existing customer base under the initial cluster scheme is predominantly off gas grid (and supplied by propane gas tanks). Safeguarding for an Area-Wide Strategic Network for LROA by constructing a transmission sized network from the outset (ie with safeguarding for new developments under scenario 1), could be expected to deliver an internal rate of return of around 8%. The total capital cost for the scheme would be 6.4M. The estimated cost of safeguarding the initial cluster network for the wider network opportunity would therefore be 1.4M. An additional connection to Ford would deliver an internal rate of return of 10.6% if this connection could be realised in the early years of the initial network coming online. A connection to Rainham would significantly reduce the potential returns from the scheme and is not recommended, given the effect on the business case for the project. Key Barriers and Opportunities to Development An outline risk assessment for the project is presented in Section 6 and Appendix 4. Key findings are presented below. The construction of an initial cluster network local to ELSEF without safeguarding for the wider strategic opportunity is not considered to serve the wider interests of LROA or be in the best interests of London as a whole, since there is a very real opportunity to access a much larger customer base and thereby deliver far greater carbon reduction to London. Future proofing for this opportunity would mean that, in order to unlock the future revenue potential of a larger network, additional investment in the network would be required in the initial phase. Left to the private sector to deliver, financing the initial cluster network on this basis will be a challenge if the wider area opportunity is to be safeguarded without any certainty of future heat sales. Delivering the wider strategic opportunity is therefore likely to require intervention from the public sector in the form of financial support or underwriting to avoid a private developer choosing to size the initial cluster network for the initial demands only. The Local Authority should work together with GLA and BEL to explore options for this. It is noted that the Mayor s Growth Fund may a suitable mechanism for providing this funding support. The future build out of the wider area network is highly dependent on regeneration taking place in London Riverside area. Whilst the initial cluster networks may be successfully delivered through the private sector, it is unlikely that the wide area opportunity will be realised without public sector involvement due to stakeholder complexity, the long and uncertain timescales for delivery and the associated long payback periods. This implies the need for high level individual and organisational commitment by the Local Authority and a degree of appetite to become a coinvestor/partner in a delivery vehicle for the project. In the absence of this, there is a risk that the project will fail to gain momentum and or to deliver to its true potential. Page 9

10 The connection of new developments is critical to the business case for the wider area network. These risk not being adequately safeguarded to connect to the future heat network if the appropriate requirements are not enforced through the planning system. The local authorities should implement appropriate safeguarding measures through the planning system and disseminate information to developers. A supply risk will arise if ELSEF becomes the primary/sole third party supplier to the future wide area network. Other potential heat suppliers should to be encouraged to participate in the future market and plants being developed in the vicinity should be required to be safeguarded for future connection to the network. In the absence of a regulated market, the commercial structures of the cluster networks and future wide area network project companies need to address issues of supply resilience, customer protection, perception about heat networks and monopoly of supply. Without this customers may be unwilling to sign up to the long term contracts needed to provide guaranteed heat sales against which investors will be prepared to lend. Key to this will be marketing the benefits of modern heat networks to customers, clear structuring of contracts with provisions to protect customers from being locked in to long term and unfair pricing mechanisms/tariff structures and the representation of customers through an independent body acting in a quasiregulatory role. The local authorities may have a facilitating role to play in all of these areas. New developments and existing large non-domestic heat and electricity users may choose to install combined heat and power units or alternative measures which may undermine the viability of the network by removing or reducing the heat demand from these customers. The local authorities involved in the project should use their powers to allow temporary solutions to be adopted in lieu of installing CHP or other compliance measures insofar as the building regulations will permit. Exiting buildings may require retrofitting work to internal heating systems to ensure compatibility with the proposed heat network system. Connection standards should be developed to outline the requirements for customers wishing to connect. The London Boroughs of Havering and Barking & Dagenham may choose to play a proactive role in bringing forward the identified opportunity. As a potential investor this could bring benefits in terms of income generation, contribution towards carbon reduction targets, reduced fuel costs, improved security of supply and alleviation of fuel poverty to local residents. A number of measures have been proposed to enable them to consider next steps in this respect Under the Government s Zero Carbon Homes proposals, London Boroughs of Havering and Barking & Dagenham can potentially raise capital for the project through contributions from Developers. In order to do this, they will need to establish themselves as potential Allowable Solutions providers. The proposed scheme is presented here in Figure 1 below; a full description of each of the individual elements is contained within the main body of the report. Page 10

11 Figure 1 Proposed Scheme Layout Page 11

12 1. INTRODUCTION, BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY 1.1 Introduction and Purpose The London Borough of Havering, with the support of the Greater London Authority and in conjunction with a local renewable energy from waste (EfW) project Biossence (East London) Limited (BEL), have commissioned Ramboll to establish an Energy Masterplan (EMP) for the London Riverside Opportunity Area (LROA) based on a district energy network. The LROA covers some 3,000 hectares and extends from Rainham Marshes in the south east to Barking town centre in the north-west and the edge of the Royal Docks, covering a total distance of 12km. It encompasses the southern parts of the London Boroughs of Barking and Dagenham, Havering and a corner of Newham. The LROA will undergo major redevelopment area over the coming decades, with a potential for 14,000 new jobs and around 25,000 new homes. As such LROA presents a significant opportunity to develop district heating infrastructure around an abundance of existing and planned low energy supply infrastructure within the area. The purpose of the Energy Masterplan has been to set out a framework to enable the LROA to support the Mayor s low carbon aspirations and identify opportunities for decentralised energy production and distribution to meet current and future energy needs of LROA. Specifically, the purpose has been to:- Focus on a district heating network serving the LROA, supplied initially from the East London Sustainable Energy Facility ELSEF and latterly from other possible heat sources both in and adjacent to the LROA. Establish the role of satellite district-heating networks across LROA that could interconnect over time to supply locally produced low to zero carbon and waste energy sources. This Energy Masterplan is intended to be appended to the LROA Planning Framework (PF) as a supporting document to inform the next stage of work that will address procurement and commercial issues around developing a heat network for the LROA. 1.2 Previous Work Undertaken The draft LROA Planning Framework 2 sets out the aspirations for a district energy/heating network within LROA. Existing or proposed heat sources within the LROA PF have been identified, including a number of EfW facilities and, at a larger scale, by-product heat from Barking Power Station (BPS) and its planned extension. The aspiration set out in the planning framework has been to develop satellite district heating networks across London Riverside that, over time, could interconnect to supply heat customers in the area with locally available low to zero carbon and waste energy sources. Previous heat off-take studies have already been completed for local areas within and around LROA, a number of which are proximate to the Biossence EfW project. These reports are referenced in Section 8 of this report and include:- The London Development Agency (now GLA) developed the London Thames Gateway Heat Network (LTGHN), a 160m project to take low cost, low carbon heat from Barking Power Station and Tate and Lyle sugar refinery and connect to over 100,000 homes in the London Thames Gateway. The project was suspended in 2011 following a failure to contract with potential heat suppliers. Data and reports are available from the GLA. The London Borough of Barking and Dagenham (LBBD) carried out a feasibility study in 1997 in regard to supplying heat to buildings in the town centre initially from local Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants and latterly from a connection to Barking Power Station. 2 London Riverside Opportunity Area Planning Framework Public Consultation Draft, Greater London Authority, December 2011 Page 12

13 The London Borough of Newham (LBN) completed an infrastructure study of the Royal Docks in 2012 that included an energy supply study. The energy work built on the Royals phase of the LTGHN project that abuts the LROA. 1.3 Layout of Report The report is presented in nine main sections. Section 2 presents the results of an energy demand appraisal for LROA that has been carried out as part of this project. This has resulted in a heat map for LROA to Section 3 presents an energy supply appraisal for LROA. This identifies existing, planned and potential future low carbon supply sources within LROA and establishes associated costs and carbon content of heat production. An appraisal of the heat network opportunity has been carried out in Section 4. A number of potential scenarios have been developed, modelled and characterised in terms of key economic and carbon performance indicators. A sensitivity analysis of the identified opportunities and an outline phasing plan have been presented In Section 5, heat network infrastructure proposals together with a route assessment are presented and in Section 6 a brief description is given around a possible operational structure to support the identified opportunity. An outline risk assessment is presented in Section 7 of the report and recommended next steps and an implementation plan are presented in Section 8 Assumptions, energy demand, supply and heat network opportunity maps and cost and carbon plans for identified opportunity are presented in a series of Appendices. Page 13

14 2. ENERGY DEMAND APPRAISAL 2.1 Existing and Planned Centres of Development Development in the LROA can broadly be divided into seven main centres of development. As summarised below, five of these lie in the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham and two within the Borough of Havering:- London Borough of Havering Centres of Development Beam Reach South Rainham London Borough of Barking and Dagenham- Centres of Development Barking Town Centre South Dagenham Riverside and Creekmouth Ford and Barking Power Station Goresbrook The spatial arrangement of these Centres of Development is shown in Figure 2. Page 14

15 Figure 2 Existing and Planned Centres of Development Page 15

16 The annual heat demand in each of these areas is presented in the following sections. Heat demands are presented graphically to show the annual expected growth in in each of the project areas over the lifetime of the project. Assumptions made in the process of carrying out this analysis are briefly outlined and further detail around the basis, methodology and assumptions applied in developing the energy demand appraisal carried in this section of the report is presented in Appendix A. 2.2 Heat Mapping Assessment for Centres of Development Beam Reach South - Havering The area defined as Beam Reach South for the purposes of this report is all land south of the national rail line that runs east to west across the LROA within the Borough of Havering excluding the Ford Plant. Existing Industrial loads in Havering centre on the Fairview Industrial Park and Beam Reach 8. There is also a significant heat demand from the Centre for Engineering and Manufacturing Excellence (CEME) development. There is also expected to be a similar development to CEME on the Beam Reach 6 site to the West. The heat demand in Beam Reach South is exclusively industrial and commercial, for this reason there is a low baseload due to the low hot water demand from these businesses Rainham - Havering The project area designated Rainham encompasses the area of LROA within Havering and not contained in the Beam Reach South project area. There are plans in place for the regeneration of the Rainham area and much of this includes for the re-designation of industrial land for residential development. A number of these smaller developments are in the process of coming forward either at planning or post-planning stages. The larger more significant residential developments are constrained in their ability to some forward by the lack of appropriate transport links to the area. There are plans to extend transport links to the area however it is considered unlikely that these will be in place within the next few years. As such the growth in heat demand in the area is constrained by external factors and this has been taken into account in the analysis of potential demands. One of the most significant developments in LROA is that of Beam Park, a site which extends into two London Boroughs and project areas. Originally these were two sites (Beam Park in Havering and South Dagenham East in Barking Dagenham) with a capacity for just under 3,000 residential units. However in March 2012 the London Borough of Barking & Dagenham and the London Borough of Havering produced a joint planning prospectus for the Beam Park area (which was now considered to comprise the entire area of Beam Park (Havering) and South Dagenham East). This prospectus was produced in response to both the delay in progressing this area for the intended residential use and to a number of approaches from developers to the LDA expressing a wish to develop the land as a large scale leisure facility. The proposal put forward in the planning prospectus incorporates the following major elements:- Anchor development of a large scale visitor attraction of regional and national significance; Leisure and entertainment facilities in keeping with the central proposal, with potential for the provision of community leisure facilities; Retail floor space for specialist sports and leisure shopping commensurate with the use and style of the anticipated major development; and Possibility for residential and hotel development if compatible with the overall concept and design of the project; Page 16

17 The planning prospectus also places a number of conditions that should be met prior to such a development coming forward. These are primarily concerned with transport links to the area and are similar to those presented earlier. In addition, this document also anticipates that any major developer would be required to contribute towards a new railway station at Beam Park. Further constraints include improved links from Dagenham Dock station, bus service improvements to serve the development including services from Dagenham Heathway (LUL) station and road improvements and car parking to accommodate additional traffic coming to a major attraction. Some of these items (non-site specific) are included as part of East London Transit Phase 3. The updated planning prospectus is adopted and in place in order to allow a greater flexibility in developing the site and in bringing forward this significant area of regeneration in a shorter timescale than may be possible for residential only developments. In the absence of the any definite plans the original housing strategy takes precedence. In this report the portion of Beam Park that lies in Havering (and thus the Rainham project area) shall be referred to as Beam Park Havering. This site was originally identified in the 2008 Site Specific Allocations (SSA) document for Havering as an appropriate residential site. The allocation of residential units for this site is 922 over 11.6ha. The proposed development has not as yet come forward and there are no known existing planning applications associated with the site. The planning constraints as outlined above also apply to any residential development at this site. The annual monitoring report for Havering produced in 2011 (the most recent version that could be located) stated that the Beam Park SSA was expected to be developed in the period However given the fact that Beam Park station is unlikely to come forward within the next 5 years (there are no current proposals and should a planning application be forthcoming in the next year or so, under current planning regulations, construction would be required to begin within the next 5 years unless superseded by another planning application), it is unlikely given planning application periods and lead-in times that any residential development would take place at this site within the next 10 years. As such this report assumes that the earliest that development would begin in this area is The timeframe for completion presented in the 2011 monitoring report is also assumed. This gives a substantial completion date of 2029, assuming a completion rate of 230 houses per annum, similar to that for South Dagenham. Page 17

18 The redevelopment of Rainham also includes for the regeneration of an area known as Rainham West. This covers the area from Dover s Corner in the East to Marsh Way in the West. The entire Rainham West area is made up of a number of sub-areas under various land ownership and a various stages of development these are:- Phase Dover s Corner Carpet Right Site No.1 Climate Energy Homes Carpet Right Site No.2 New College Planning Framework Designation Residential Proposed Use 735 Residential Units & some mixed use development Residential 51 Passive House Homes 2018 Residential 11,800m 2 Educational College Mudlands Employment No Change to Existing NA Rainham Steel Employment No Change to Existing NA Suttons Industrial Park Residential Somerfields Depot Residential 497 homes No Current Applications, assume residential 210* homes Table 1 Rainham West Development Summary Table Phasing 90 units per annum from 2015 onwards, giving substantial completion in 2024 Planning granted 2012, est. completion 2018 No planning application, assumed to begin in 2018 and to complete by 2022 Planning Granted 2012, assumed to begin in 2017 and to complete by 2022 * Area-based pro-rata allocation of remainder of original housing allocation in the 2011 Havering annual monitoring report Rainham Steel and Mudlands are identified in the planning framework as areas dedicated to employment uses. In the absence of any more detailed plans, it has been assumed here that existing industry will remain in place for the foreseeable future with no significant impact on heat demand. The phasing for Dover s corner is taken from the annual monitoring report 2011 though set back a couple of years to allow for the fact that no work has begun on this site in the 2 years since the report was prepared (according to London Borough of Havering). Phasing for the new college, Somerfields depot and Climate Energy Homes developments are estimated based on the date of grant of planning permission with 5 years allowed for completion as per earlier assumptions. The Sutton site development phasing is based on assumptions made in the annual monitoring report plus 2 years to allow for the lack of progress in the intervening years. It should be noted that of these developments only the residential developments at Sutton s Industrial Park and Somerfield s Depot are considered suitable for connection as a number of the current proposed developments are likely to include individual gas boilers in the residential units which are unsuitable for connection to a district heating scheme. Page 18

19 Beam Reach 5 There are two elements to the current planning application submitted by TESCO for Beam Reach 5 which are:- Beam Reach 5 TESCO Planning Framework Designation Industrial Proposed Use Refrigerated distribution centre Vehicle Maintenance Unit Recycling Centre 2015 Phasing Beam Reach 5 Outline Industrial Various Industrial B1/B Table 2 Beam Reach Development Summary Table There are seven plots within the Beam Reach 5 site, the majority of which are the subject of outline planning applications. Indicative energy consumption and building use data was provided in the energy statement that accompanied the planning application. For the TESCO plots, only the Vehicle maintenance unit and the recycling centre have a heat demand. The other TESCO development is a very large refrigerated goods storage facility with minimal heat demand South Dagenham Barking Dagenham South Dagenham West South Dagenham West was originally identified as an SSA area capable of delivering 2,000 residential properties between 2013 and However, since the development of the Specific Allocations Development Plan Document, the owner of part of the site, AXA, has had a planning application accepted for an industrial estate on the site and construction is under way. A hotel and restaurant have also been built elsewhere on the site. It is assumed that the remainder of the site will be developed as per the original SSA and the remaining land has been assigned a pro-rata housing density based on the initial 2,000 homes allocation. There is an ASDA currently occupying part of the north western corner of the main site, though there are plans to re-locate this store to the regenerated Abbey retail park. This relocation would have to take place for the remainder of the SSA development to be realised. It is therefore assumed that work on the development will not begin for at least 5 years (in 2018) and that construction (at the original rate of development) would take 2.5 years with completion in This period of 5 years is the estimated time taken for the project to go from initial planning application to completion similar to the assumptions made above for the smaller planning applications. Beam Park - South Dagenham East Portion The SSA envisaged South Dagenham East delivering 2,000 homes over the period However, the development of this site is dependent upon the delivery of improved transport links into Central London. Consequently, LBBD s housing trajectory puts the capacity of this site at 500 homes from Given the uncertainty surrounding the extension of transport links to East London and the LBBD s own view of the limited potential for this site to deliver any homes in the next 15 years, development within the estimated time period is questionable and it is assumed in this report that the earliest the development can start is in 2028 (as per the housing strategy). A similar development timeline to that originally proposed has been applied, namely the development of 200 homes per year over 10 years with completion occurring in Page 19

20 2.2.4 Barking Town Centre Barking Dagenham Barking Town Centre has been the subject of a number of heat network studies in the past. As such, the heat demand from the area is relatively well documented and understood. Data from the London heat map has been supplemented with data provided to Ramboll from the GLA and from planning applications in the area. A full assessment of Barking Town Centre s network is outside the scope of this study and is not included within this EMP. Instead BTC has been considered as a point load on the system comprising primarily residential and commercial demand. The progression of the Gascoigne Estate development in particular will be critical in the next few years if the heat load is to be considered sufficient for a heat network. Data provided by the GLA is very comprehensive in respect of the annual heat demands and the phasing of these demands in the area. At the rate of development estimated by the GLA, BTC s heat demand should be in place by For the purposes of this study and for connection to a network, only the base load from BTC is considered suitable for connection. This has been modelled to be approximately 6MW, supplying over 36,500MWh per annum or 78% of the demand in BTC Riverside and Creekmouth Barking Dagenham Barking Riverside The development phasing plan set out in the initial planning application for Barking Riverside was as follows:- Phase Year No. Houses Barking Riverside Phase Barking Riverside Phase Barking Riverside Phase Barking Riverside Phase Table 3 Barking Riverside Initial Phasing Planning consent was subsequently awarded to the Barking Riverside Development but a number of stringent planning conditions relating to requirements for public transport improvements were imposed. In particular:- No more than 1,500 homes may be occupied before a Transport and Works Act authorising the construction and operation of the DLR is signed; No more than 4,000 homes can be occupied before the DLR extension is operational; and No more than 3,999 homes can be occupied before improvements to the A13/Renwick road junction are complete. Discussions between relevant parties are ongoing but no dates for commencement are available. According to London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, only 357 of the proposed residential units have been substantially completed to date. The housing trajectory prepared by the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham in 2011 estimates that by 2028, only 4,071 of the proposed 10,800 homes will have been completed at an average construction rate of 1300 homes every 5 years. The planning application had targeted over 8,300 homes to be complete at this stage. Page 20

21 In order to meet even the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham s phasing plan, construction of the development would have to accelerate considerably in the next few years. In the absence of any additional information, the following phasing plan has been assumed over the next 25 years based on the LBBD phasing plan and achieving the same build-out rate for the remainder of the development. Year No. Houses Table 4 Barking Riverside Estimated Phasing Dagenham Docks Dagenham Docks covers both the London Sustainable Industries Park (LSIP) and the Thames Gateway Business Park. The latter has a number of planning applications associated with it and part of the site has already been developed. Details set out in the planning application have been assumed to be correct and the phasing set out in that document is assumed to be correct. LSIP is an industrial development supported by the GLA and the LBBD as a location for the development of sustainable and green industry. Two sites have been granted planning permission in LSIP to date, both of which are for heat generating plant (TEG and TGEF) and further details of which are contained in Section 4 below. The rest of the plots are indicative plot sizes only and have been benchmarked on the basis of similar sites in LROA. The phasing of these sites development has been assumed to be of the order of one site coming forward every 2 years from 2015 onwards. Other There are a number of other smaller heat loads considered suitable for connection in the area around Barking Riverside, specifically in the Creekmouth industrial area and the area south of the national rail line. Incidental heat loads along this route that are considered capable of connecting and of suitable demand to connect are also included. These additional loads are not significant in comparison to the demands projected to come from the Riverside residential development Ford and Barking Power Station Barking Dagenham Barking Power Station BPS currently has quite a small heat load, used to pre-heat the incoming gas supply for the two first generation CCGT plants on site. BPS is currently used only as a top-up electrical supply for the national grid. It is understood that only the smaller of the two units is operational with the larger unit on long-term standby. At full-capacity, the estimated heat demand for the station is approximately 6MW. The smaller unit account for up to 2MW of this demand. Given the fact that the full-load run hours are very low (approximately 800hrs/annum) and that operation is of an intermittent nature the actual load factor for the smaller plant is most likely of the order of 10%. It is considered unlikely that the plant will return to full operation in the near future. Power generation costs from other facilities would need to increase sufficiently to allow the station to become competitive once more. Even under these more favourable conditions the age and efficiency of the CCGT engines are likely to limit the load factor for Barking Power station to less than 30%. Page 21

22 As the risk associated with predicting any return to full operation of the plant is unacceptably high, only the 2MW heat requirement of the smaller plant shall be considered and additional constraints shall be applied to this load in order to account for the uncertainties associated with it. There have been plans in the past for extending the generating capacity of the power station by installing new high efficiency F-class gas turbines. These turbines require the input gas to be first compressed to a much higher pressure than is used on-site at present. The process of compressing the gas via large scale compressors will also have the effect of pre-heating the gas and thus this new unit will have no associated heat load. Ford Site The estimated annual average heat demand at Ford was approximately 120GWh. The Stamping Plant however has now closed and this, together with a move towards more efficient space heating systems in line with the trend in many major industrial sites is likely to lead a reduction in the demand for heat. The reduced heating demand on-site is therefore now estimated to be approximately 50,000 MWh/annum with a projected peak heat demand on-site of the order of 20MW Goresbrook There are a number of small to medium development projects planned for the Goresbrook area in the next years. These are primarily residential developments with some industrial loads in the Ripple Road Industrial Estate. The total heat demand for this area is estimated to be comparatively low. Other factors which limit the potential for this area to connect to a heat network include a lack of concentrated heat loads resulting in low linear heat demand (MWh/m), physical constraints such as road and rail crossings and the overall distance of the loads from the proposed network route. Goresbrook is therefore excluded from further consideration in this report. 2.3 Overall Demands in 2055 The growth of the demands over the 40 year project period is shown in Figure 3. Initial Cluster Network Area-Wide Strategic Network Figure 3 Projected Growth in Heat Demand over a 40 year period As can be seen in Figure 3 above there is already quite a sizable demand in the LROA at present. However this existing demand is spread across the whole of the LROA area resulting in a low- Page 22

23 medium average heat demand density across the region which could not support an area-wide heat network. The majority of the existing demand is in the Barking Town Centre, Ford and Beam Reach South Areas. Previous work carried out in Barking Town centre has indicated that this network is contingent upon the redevelopment of a vast area of the town centre in the Gascoigne Estate and the network is not expected to progress until such time as this comes to pass. The load at Ford is quite large and is located close to the Beam Reach South Area, which itself is an area of relatively high demand density. For this reason the Beam Reach South area which comprises both the Beam Reach South and Fairview Industrial areas are considered as a candidate for the development of an initial cluster heat network in the LROA region. This is picked up in more detail in Section 4. The main areas of growth over the 40 year period to 2055 are the Riverside and Creekmouth, Rainham and South Dagenham Areas. These areas all contain key housing developments that need to come forward in order to encourage and justify the development of a heat network in the wider region. These demands are expected to reach a tipping point in the years 2028 to 2030 whereby individual developments will exceed 60% build out. As can be seen the heat-on date for the area-wide strategic heat network opportunity is estimated to be 2030 based on this assessment of the potential demands in the area. A map showing the relative size of demands in the area is shown in Figure 4 below. This represents point load data for heat demand, represented here as graduated circles. This map shows the anticipated heat demands in the area in The clustering of heat demands can be seen quite clearly in this image and it is possible to determine how the finished network may look just from observing the pattern of demands. Page 23