Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters
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1 JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, March 2014 Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters 14 March 2014 Yosuke IGARASHI Japan Meteorological Agency 1
2 Observations Space Based Observation JMA's Operational Service Analysis and Forecast Computer System for Met. Service Products Warnings, Advisories Upper Air Observation Numerical Weather Prediction Radar Observation Surface Observation Ocean Observation Data Collection Collection and Dissemination of Met. Data Local Met. Observatories Information Issuance Typhoon Forecast Weather Forecast One Week Forecast International Data Exchange Data/Products Seasonal Forecast Aeronautical Met. Information Other NMHSs Marine Met. Information 2
3 Dissemination of Warnings JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in order to reach people surely and quickly. Japan Meteorological Agency (Local Meteorological Observatories) Issuance of disaster prevention information, such as: -Weather Warning / -Typhoon Info. -Earthquake Early Warning / Info. -Tsunami Warning / / Info. -Volcanic Warning / Info. -Aviation / Marine Weather Info. -Volcanic Ash Japan Meteorological Business Support Center Prefectural Governments National Police Agency Fire and Disaster Management Agency NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation) MLIT (Water and Disaster Management Bureau) JMA Website, etc. Cellular carrier NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) Media Organizations Public Weather Services Japan Coast Guard Municipality Governments Public Agencies etc. Disaster Prevention Activities The Public Service Users Marine Vessels MLIT (Civil Aviation Bureau) Airplanes 3
4 Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan (Number of dead or missing) Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management) Dead or missing Houses destroyed completely or partially (Number of houses) (Year) 2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan! 2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas 4
5 10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October km T0404 (landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jun 11) T0406 (landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Jun 21) T0410 (landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jul 31) T0411 (landed on Japan around 22:30JST, Aug 4) T0415 (landed on Japan around 06:00JST, Aug 20) T0416 (landed on Japan around 10:00JST, Aug 30) T0418 (landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Sep 7) T0421 (landed on Japan around 08:30JST, Sep 29) T0422 (landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Oct 9) T0423 (landed on Japan around 13:00JST, Oct 20) 5
6 Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Advisories and Orders (Cabinet Office, 2005) During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner. Background: Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order. Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1% Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4% Not determined: 92.9% Source: Cabinet Office, 2004 Municipalities should determine specific criteria. 6
7 Improvement of Warning JMA Warning Municipalities Order Warning Residents Warning In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision Warnings should be issued to city / town / village respectively. 2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for evacuation advisory and order. 7
8 Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in Japan). 23区 東部 多摩西部 多摩北部 23 区西部 多摩南部 warning advisory no warning / advisory 20km Tokyo JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan). 奥多摩町 足立区 葛飾区 練馬区 西東京市 渋谷区 府中市 狛江市 多摩市 稲城市 世田谷区 目黒区 調布市 台東区 千代田区 中央区 杉並区 三鷹市 文京区 新宿区 港区 国立市 日野市 武蔵野市 江東区 江戸川区 小平市 国分寺市 小金井市 墨田区 荒川区 豊島区 立川市 昭島市 八王子市 東村山市 中野区 あきる野市 福生市 檜原村 武蔵 村山市 東大和市 羽村市 板橋区 清瀬市 瑞穂町 北区 青梅市 品川区 町田市 大田区 8
9 Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast Criteria recommended in the Guideline Mayor's Decision Criteria Flood Forecast with Level Water Level Setting Order Preparation Information Water level of the river has reached "Flood Danger Level." Embankment is broken. Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate Flood Danger Level Flood Alert Level Flood Watch Level Standby Level Flood Forecast Title Water Level Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur) Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level Lv2: Flood Info. Flood Watch Level - Standby Level 9
10 Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning Criteria recommended in the Guideline Mayor's Decision Criteria JMA set the criteria for storm surge warning consistent with "Storm Surge Danger Level." Order Preparation Information Sea level has reached "Storm Surge Danger Level." Tidal embankment is broken. Sea level is expected to reach "Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate, however, storm will be also expected as the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider the advisory when it meets the criteria for preparation information. Sea level is expected to reach "Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate 1. If the municipality already set the "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the level as the warning criterion for the city, town or village. 2. If the municipality is NOT set the "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the warning criterion based on the survey (e.g. design high tide level for embankment, lowest altitude of the wharf). 10
11 Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert Criteria recommended in the Guideline Mayor's Decision Criteria JMA set the "Critical Line" as the criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert. Order Preparation Information The rainfall situation has reached "Critical Line." A sediment disaster has occurred in neighbours. The rainfall situation is expected to reach "Critical Line" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate The rainfall situation is expected to reach "Critical Line" in certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate 60 min. rainfall amount (mm) 60 分 間 積 算 雨 量 (mm/hr) Unreal Area rainfall with NO sediment 非 発 disaster 生 降 雨 rainfall with sediment disaster probability 降 of 雨 rainfall 発 現 occurrence 確 率 値 Soil Water Index (mm) 土 壌 雨 量 指 数 (mm) Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence 0 11
12 Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012 Flood Storm Surge Sediment Disaster Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing Specific criteria are under development Not yet started Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency,
13 Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision Mayors Decision Disaster Sediment Disaster River Flooding Storm Surge Flooding Preparation Information Sediment Disaster Alert Heavy Rain Warning Flood Warning Flood Alerting Information Flood Information Storm Surge Warning Setting Up Disaster Countermeasures Heavy Rain Flood Storm Surge 13
14 Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011 Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, (mm) 50km 14
15 Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage Damages: 98 dead or missing 3,538 houses comp / part destroyed 22,094 houses flooded Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012 Talas visible image and its track (red line) at 12JST of Sep. 2. Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure) 15
16 Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the catastrophic situation we never experienced! 1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Kazeya Heavy Rain 1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount 9 月 の 月 降 水 量 の 平 年 値 282.7mm 282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September Sediment Disaster Alert Heavy Rain Warning Sediment Disaster Cumulative rainfall amount (mm) 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4 Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture 16
17 Establishment of "Emergency Warning" Intensity level (Precipitation etc.) Once in 50 years level Serious disasters will most probably happen Emergency Warning Warning level Serious disasters may happen Warning level Disasters may happen Disaster Serious Disaster Serious Disasters (Higher possibility) Time Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years. 17
18 Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning Heavy Rain Emg Warning 1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Kazeya Heavy Rain 1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount 9 月 の 月 降 水 量 の 平 年 値 282.7mm 282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September Sediment Disaster Alert Heavy Rain Warning Sediment Disaster Cumulative rainfall amount (mm) 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4 Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture 18
19 Emgency Warning during the Typhoon Man-yi in km Emgency Warning Warning No Warning / Otsu, Shiga prefecture 50 Emg. Warning 05:05, 16 Sep 1 hour rainfall amount (mm) 時 hour 間 降 rainfall 水 量 (ミリ) (mm) Cumulative 積 算 降 水 量 rainfall (ミリ) (mm) 13:54, 15 Sep Warning 18:48, 15 Sep Cumulative rainfall amount (mm) Press briefing 0 0 時 3 時 6 時 9 時 12 時 15 時 18 時 21 時 24 時 3 時 6 時 9 時 12 時 0 19
20 Categories of Weather Warnings 20
21 Summary of History on our Improvement 2 grades information --- advisory, warning 2004: 10 typhoons hit Japan Lesson: Warnings need to connect to action After 2004: Restructuring of warning warning zones be set as city, town and village areas warning criteria be consistent with the criteria of evacuation order 2011: Unprecedented rainfall by typhoon Talas Lesson: Effective message in emergency situation. 2013: Emergency warning launched Our efforts will continue forever so that the warnings save people from natural disasters more effectively! 21
22 Public Awareness & Cooperation with other Organizations Public Awareness Leaflets Movies Workshop / events Cooperation Consensus on warning criteria Warning criteria are fixed under the consensus through the discussion with municipalities concerned. Joint information JMA issues flood forecasts jointly with the river administrators, namely, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or prefectural governments. Sediment disaster alerts are also issued jointly by JMA and prefectural governments. Personnel exchange JMA exchanges personnel with other national and municipal governments related to disaster management. Education Lecture at schools Cooperation with the Japanese Red Cross Society 22
23 Thank you 23
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