California Healthcare Employment Outlook Amar Mann Economic Analysis & Information Branch Chief San Francisco Office August 2015 www.bls.gov
What is the Bureau of Labor Statistics? The federal agency which produces the most important statistics on the state of the economy Employment and Unemployment Prices Wages and Benefits Projections
3 146,000 144,000 142,000 140,000 Employment in total nonfarm January 2005 July 2015 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands Embargoed pre-release until 08-07-2015 8:30 AM (EDT) July 2015 Level: 142,071 OTM Change: 215* Jan 2008 peak: 138,365 Feb 2010 trough: 129,649 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 126,000 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, August 07, 2015. Shaded area represents recession as denoted by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. * denotes significance.
60 4 Employment in health care Over-the-month change, January 2012 - July 2015 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands Embargoed pre-release until 08-07-2015 8:30 AM (EDT) 50 51 47 50 40-3 -4-4 6 6 37 11 39 11 29 12 29 29 17 15 24 21 23 22 21 22 26 25 32 14 34 15 16 33 32 7 32 32 1 32 35 40 31 30 28 18 20 10 0-10 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, August 07, 2015. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.
5 Embargoed pre-release until 08-07-2015 8:30 AM (EDT)
Large Growth in Jobs and Wages for Healthcare in LA
CALIFORNIA HEALTHCARE 7
12-month Percent Change in California Employment 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Offices of Physicians Hospitals Total Nonfarm -8.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics, Private Industry, not seasonally adjusted 8
Employment Growth in Offices of Physicians Outpacing Hospitals in Los Angeles 25% 20% 15% Percent Change in Employment from 2004 2014: Hospitals = 6% Offices of Physicians = 22% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Offices of Physicians Hospitals Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW annual averages, Los Angeles County 9
High Wages for Healthcare Occupations on West Coast Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics 10
Top Paying Metropolitan Areas for Registered Nurses Nationwide (May 2013 - Top 10 Metropolitan Areas are All Located in California) Metropolitan area San Francisco-San Mateo- Redwood City, CA Metropolitan Division San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Employment Employment per thousand jobs Location quotient Annual mean wage 14,630 13.99 0.7 $127,670 14,230 15.3 0.76 $123,190 Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 3,230 26.44 1.32 $121,670 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Division Sacramento--Arden-Arcade-- Roseville, CA 20,070 20 1 $121,040 16,060 19.17 0.95 $108,340 Napa, CA 1,660 25.27 1.26 $105,360 Modesto, CA 3,670 23.25 1.16 $104,910 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 3,580 20.26 1.01 $100,600 Salinas, CA 2,360 15.22 0.76 $100,130 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 1,380 16.11 0.8 $98,310 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics 11
Healthcare Industry Employment, Los Angeles County, 2014 Employment Establishments Average weekly wage General medical and surgical hospitals 105,453 127 $1,420 Offices of physicians 82,955 10,980 $1,918 Nursing care facilities 43,974 573 $642 Offices of dentists 30,200 5,647 $946 Outpatient care centers 26,375 961 $1,210 Home health care services 24,395 1,124 $636 Community care facilities for the elderly 14,793 685 $530 Residential mental health facilities 14,242 548 $615 Medical and diagnostic laboratories 9,398 513 $1,066 Other ambulatory health care services 6,884 172 $799 Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW 2014 4 th quarter, Los Angeles County 2,599 35 $857 12
Trends in RN employment by Industry (National Data) Percent change in employment from 2002 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% All industries General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Offices of Physicians Home Health Care Services Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities) Outpatient Care Centers Employment Services -20% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics 13
Trends in LVN employment by Industry (National Data) 60.0% Percent change in employment from 2002 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10.0% All industries Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities) -20.0% General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Offices of Physicians -30.0% Home Health Care Services Continuing Care Retirement Communities -40.0% Employment Services 14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics
Projected Population Growth 2010 to 2060, Numeric Change California = 15,384,201 Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, January 2013 15
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, January 2013 Projected Population Growth 2010 to 2060, Percent Change California = 41.2 percent
California s Aging Population 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0-19 20-39 40-59 60+ 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 17 Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, January 2013
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, January 2013 Median Age - 2010 California = 35.2 years
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, January 2013 Median Age - 2030 California = 38.9 years
Employment Count by Worker Age 20 year change 160,000 California General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 140,000 Employment Count 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Source: http://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/ 1992 2012 under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 20
Economic Effects of Health Care Reform Health Care Reform Growth in Coverage Decelerating Benefit Costs to Employers Greater Demand for Preventive & Routine Treatment Increased Resources for Jobs and Wages
Economic Effects of Health Care Reform cont. Greater Demand for Preventive & Routine Treatment Increased Resources for Jobs and Wages Growth in Wages Growth in Employment Increasing Health Care & Allied Industry Employment Multiplier Effects in Economy
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Fastest Growing Major Occupational Groups in California Occupational Title Annual Average Employment Employment Change 2014 First Quarter Wages 2012 2022 Numerical % Median Annual Personal Care and Service Occupations 795,500 1,048,100 252,600 31.8 $22,743 Construction and Extraction Occupations 587,700 756,800 169,100 28.8 $51,700 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 494,800 613,800 119,000 24.1 $92,491 Healthcare Support Occupations 360,600 442,400 81,800 22.7 $30,874 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 1,329,100 1,595,900 266,800 20.1 $19,639 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 888,900 1,059,500 170,600 19.2 $70,558 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 197,400 234,100 36,700 18.6 $74,725 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 755,300 895,500 140,200 18.6 $82,293 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 973,300 1,119,200 145,900 15.0 $29,329 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 577,500 662,500 85,000 14.7 $24,869 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 499,700 572,000 72,300 14.5 $46,819 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Occupational Projections 24
Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Job Growth in California Occupational Title Annual Average Employment Employment Change 2012 2022 Numerical Percent 2014 First Quarter Wages Median Annual Registered Nurses 254,500 297,400 42,900 16.9% $95,415 Nursing Assistants 98,400 121,600 23,200 23.6% $28,426 Medical Assistants 81,600 100,500 18,900 23.2% $32,940 Home Health Aides 44,900 62,400 17,500 39.0% $23,267 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 60,700 76,300 15,600 25.7% $52,225 Dental Assistants 45,200 52,200 7,000 15.5% $36,850 Pharmacy Technicians 31,400 37,200 5,800 18.5% $38,445 Dental Hygienists 21,800 26,900 5,100 23.4% $100,312 Physical Therapists 16,400 21,100 4,700 28.7% $91,156 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 16,000 20,500 4,500 28.1% $42,593 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Occupational Projections 25
Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations in California Occupational Title Annual Average Employment Employment Change 2012 2022 Numerical Percent 2014 First Quarter Wages Median Annual Occupational Therapy Assistants 1,600 2,300 700 43.8% $68,470 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 4,700 6,700 2,000 42.6% $87,018 Home Health Aides 44,900 62,400 17,500 39.0% $23,267 Orthotists and Prosthetists 1,100 1,500 400 36.4% $60,521 Physical Therapist Assistants 4,500 6,100 1,600 35.6% $64,137 Physical Therapist Aides 5,900 7,900 2,000 33.9% $27,166 Physician Assistants 8,300 11,100 2,800 33.7% $102,537 Therapists, All Other 3,800 5,000 1,200 31.6% $55,037 Audiologists 1,000 1,300 300 30.0% $84,650 Physical Therapists 16,400 21,100 4,700 28.7% $91,156 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Occupational Projections 26
Average Annual Job Openings (Growth + Replacement Needs) California Healthcare Occupations Occupational Title New Jobs Average Annual Job Openings Replacement Needs Total Jobs 2014 First Quarter Wages Median Annual Registered Nurses 4,300 4,930 9,230 $95,415 Nursing Assistants 2,310 1,870 4,180 $28,426 Medical Assistants 1,890 1,560 3,450 $32,940 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,560 1,480 3,040 $52,225 Home Health Aides 1,760 850 2,610 $23,267 Dental Assistants 700 940 1,640 $36,850 Dental Hygienists 510 560 1,060 $100,312 Pharmacists 410 640 1,050 $136,066 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 350 700 1,050 N/A Pharmacy Technicians 590 310 900 $38,445 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Occupational Projections 27
Average Annual Job Openings, Los Angeles County, 2012-2022 New Jobs Replacement Needs Total Jobs Median Annual Wages Registered Nurses 973 1,360 2,333 $93,311 Nursing Assistants 593 590 1,183 $27,539 Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 542 481 1,023 $51,941 Medical Assistants 454 447 901 $31,368 Home Health Aides 422 193 615 $24,768 Dental Assistants 147 216 363 $36,286 Medical & Clinical Laboratory Technicians 157 136 293 $39,305 Pharmacists 92 164 256 $135,792 Dental Hygienists 113 136 249 $105,239 Physical Therapists 126 106 232 $88,586 Pharmacy Technicians 138 77 215 $36,361 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Occupational Projections 28
California Healthcare Projections by Industry Number of jobs added, 2012-2022 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Other residential care facilities 0-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60-10,000 General medical and surgical hospitals Offices of dentists Specialty (except psychiatric and substance abuse) hospitals Nursing care facilities (skilled nursing facilities) Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals Offices of physicians Outpatient care centers Medical and diagnostic laboratories Other ambulatory health care services Residential intellectual and developmental disability, mental health, and substance abuse facilities Home health care services Offices of other health practitioners Continuing care retirement communities and assisted living facilities for the elderly -20,000 Percent increase in employment, 2012-2022 Source: California Employment Development Department, 2012-2022 Industry Projections, Private Industry 29
BLS INPUTS FOR PPS 30
Sources of Market Basket Weights for the Prospective Payment System Hospital Input Price Index Consumer Other, 2% Price Index, 3% Producer Price Index, 21% Employment Cost Index, 74% Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 31
BLS Indexes used for PPS Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) measure changes in the prices producers receive for their output Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs) measure changes in the prices of final goods and services purchased by the typical consumer Employment Cost Indexes (ECIs) measure the rate of change in employee wage rates and employer costs for employee benefits per hour worked 32
Why use BLS data for PPS? These data are well-established publicly available series that are published on a regular schedule, are available on a timely basis and reflect an appropriate level of detail necessary for use in our market baskets. - Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Source: http://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and- Reports/MedicareProgramRatesStats/Downloads/info.pdf 33
Thank YOU! Most BLS data related to healthcare are voluntarily reported Thank you for your participation! 34
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