20/20 Vision? Overview of the Latest Workforce Projections for 2010-2020 Stephen N. Collier, Ph.D. Director and Professor Office of Health Professions Education and Workforce Development School of Health Professions
BLS employs a macroeconomic model the model comprises 744 variables, 543 of which are estimated through equations that describe the U.S. economy. The remaining 201 variable are exogenous: their values must be provided to the model in order to calculate a solution of the period in question Employment Outlook 2010-2020: The U.S. Economy in 2020: Recovery in Uncertain Times, page 22, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Healthcare Retirement Rates (largest decline in retirement rates among all workforce sectors of the U.S. economy) Percent of healthcare workforce retired within 12 months 2004-2007 2009-2010 approx 4% 1.55% Source: The Conference Board, as reported by John Commins in Health Leaders Media, May 25, 2011
U.S. Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job openings Number due to growth and net replacements, 2010 2020 Number Percent 2010-2020 Total, all occupations 143,068 163,537 20,469 14.3 54,787 Community and social services occupations (21-0000) 2,403 2,985 582 24.2 1,098 Education, training and library occupations (25-0000) 9,194 10,597 1,404 15.3 3,398 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (29-0000) 7,799 9,819 2,020 25.9 3,591 Healthcare support occupations (31-0000) 4,190 5,634 1,444 34.5 2,042 Sales and related occupations (41-0000) 14,916 16,785 1,869 12.5 6,454 Office and administrative support occupations (43-0000) 22,603 24,938 2,336 10.3 7,450 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (49-0000) 5,429 6,229 800 14.7 2,026 Production occupations (51-0000) 8,594 8,951 357 4.2 2,231 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Because of the severity of the 2007-2009 recession, the 2010 starting point is quite low, thus some of the projected growth represents a climb out from the deep recession The January Review page 2, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
The BLS projections are built on the assumption of a full-employment economy in 2020 Employment Outlook 2010-2020: Overview of Projections to 2020, page 3, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Overall employment is projected to increase about 14 percent during the 2010-2020 decade with more than half a million new jobs expected for each of four occupations registered nurses, retail salespersons, home health aides, and personal care aides Employment Outlook 2010-2020: Occupational Employment Projections to 2020, page 84, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Occupation Health Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Employment Number 2010 2020 Change Number Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2010-2020 Total, all occupations 143,068 163,537 20,469 14.3 54,787 Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations 7,799 9,819 2,020 25.9 3,591 Healthcare support occupation 4,190 5,634 1,444 34.5 2,042 Physicians and surgeons 691 859 168 24.2 305 Registered nurses 2,737 3,449 712 26.0 1,207 Occupational therapists 109 145 36 33.5 57 Physical therapists 199 276 77 39.0 101 Physician assistants 84 108 24 29.5 41 Speech-language pathologists 123 152 29 23.4 52 Athletic trainers 18 24 6 30.0 12 Medical & clinical lab technologists 169 189 20 11.3 52 Medical & clinical lab technicians 161 185 24 14.7 55 Dental hygienists 182 250 68 37.7 105 Radiologic technologists and technicians 220 281 61 27.8 95 Respiratory therapists 113 144 31 27.7 53 Home health aides 1,018 1,724 706 69.4 838 Medical assistants 528 690 162 30.9 244 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Health Professions BLS Projections (thousands of jobs) Occupation Total job openings due to growth and net replacement, 2010-2020 Percent Change 2002-12 2004-14 2006-16 2008-18 2010-20 Clin Lab Technologists & Technicians 107 19.3 22.7 13.6 13.9 13.0 Dental Hygienists 105 43.1 43.3 30.1 36.1 37.7 Dieticians & Nutritionists 35 17.8 18.3 8.6 9.2 19.7 Home Health Aides 838 48.1 56.0 48.7 50.0 69.4 Medical Assistants 244 58.9 52.1 35.4 33.9 30.9 Med Records & Health Info Technicians 74 46.8 28.9 17.8 20.3 21.0 Occupational Therapists 57 35.2 33.6 23.1 25.6 33.5 Pharmacists 140 30.1 24.6 21.7 17.0 25.4 Physical Therapists 101 35.3 36.7 27.1 30.3 39.0 Physician Assistants 41 48.9 49.6 27.0 39.0 29.5 Physicians & Surgeons 305 19.5 24.0 14.2 21.8 24.4 Radiologic Technologists & Technicians 95 22.9 23.2 15.1 17.2 27.8 Registered Nurses 1,207 27.3 29.4 23.4 22.2 26.0 Respiratory Therapists 53 34.8 28.4 22.6 20.9 27.7 Speech-Language Pathologists 52 27.2 14.6 10.6 18.5 23.4 Table prepared by Stephen N. Collier based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Projections to 2020, Monthly Labor Review February 2012, and counterpart articles November 2004, February 2005, and November 2009.
Health Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Number 2010 2020 Number Change Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2010-2020 Audiologists 13 18 5 36.8 6 Occupational therapists 109 145 36 33.5 57 Physician assistants 84 108 24 29.5 41 Physical therapists 199 276 77 39.0 101 Speech-language pathologists 123 152 29 23.4 52 Medical and health services managers (11-9111) 303 371 68 22.4 141 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Health Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Number 2010 2020 Number Change Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2010-2020 Athletic trainers 18 24 6 30 12 Dietitians & nutritionists 64 77 13 19.7 35 Health Educators (21-1091) 63 87 23 36.5 37 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 180 217 37 21.0 74 Medical & Clinical Lab Technologists 169 189 20 11.3 52 Nuclear medicine technologists 22 26 4 18.9 8 Recreational therapists 22 26 4 17.1 12 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Health Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job Number openings due to growth and net replacements, 2010 2020 Number Percent 2010-2020 Dental hygienists 182 250 68 37.7 105 Diagnostic medical sonographers 54 77 23 43.5 32 Dietetic technicians 24 28 4 16.0 8 Medical & clinical lab technicians 161 185 24 14.7 55 Occupational therapist assistants 29 41 12 43.3 17 Physical therapist assistants 67 98 31 45.7 41 Registered nurses 2,737 3,449 712 26.0 1,207 Radiation therapists 17 20 3 20.3 7 Radiologic technologists and technicians 220 281 61 27.8 95 Respiratory therapists 113 144 31 27.7 53 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Health Workforce Employment 2010-2020 Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job Number openings due to growth and net replacements, 2010 2020 Number Percent 2010-2020 Dental assistants 297 389 92 30.8 154 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 227 302 75 33.3 121 Home health aides 1,018 1,724 706 69.4 838 Licensed practical & licensed vocational nurses 752 921 169 22.4 369 Medical assistants 528 690 162 30.9 244 Medical transcriptionists 95 101 6 5.9 20 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,505 1,807 302 20.1 496 Pharmacy technicians 334 443 109 32.4 166 Surgical technologists 94 111 18 18.9 34 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2011-12, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Factors Effecting Utilization
given the severity of the most recent recession and the slowness of recovery to date, BLS recognizes that the current set of projections faces more uncertainly than usual Employment Outlook 2010-2020: Overview of Projections to 2020, page 5, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce THE RECESSION THAT BEGAN IN DECEMBER OF 2007 IS ALREADY 30 MONTHS OLD, BUT THE U.S. ECONOMY WILL NOT RECOVER ITS PRE-RECESSION EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO YEARS. FROM THERE, IT WILL TAKE AN ADDITIONAL THREE YEARS TO MAKE UP FOR LOST GROWTH AND CREATE A JOB MARKET STRONG ENOUGH TO EMPLOY BOTH THE CASUALTIES OF THE RECESSION AND THE MILLIONS OF NEW WORKERS WHO WILL STREAM INTO THE WORKFORCE FROM SCHOOLS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. (PAGE 109)
Affordable Care Act passed March 2010 Features: 32 million newly covered by insurance by 2019 Accountable care organizations Bundled payments Medical home CMS reduction in physician payment Insurance reforms
Current Employment What are the available jobs for graduates now vs. anticipated jobs 3-5 years from now? What to do about it now and not be caught short or in excess in 3-5 years?
Workplace personnel needs change more rapidly than educational programs can respond a local personnel need is identified Program planning occurs (6 mos-1year) Hiring a program director, accreditation, curriculum development, faculty hiring (1-2 years) Program implementation (2 years) First graduates (4 or more yrs from identification)
PROGRAM N ENTERING CLASS APPLICANTS ENTERING CLASS ENROLLMENT CAPACITY STUDENTS ACTUALLY ENROLLED IN ENTERING CLASS APPLICANTS/ACTUAL ENROLLMENT Athletic Training 24 1813 534 500 3.626 Cardiovascular Perfusion Technology 7 226 76 68 3.324 Clinical Laboratory Sciences (Medical Technology) 44 2222 2575 1300 1.709 Cytotechnology 15 175 135 75 2.333 Dental Hygiene 16 1884 546 537 3.508 Diagnostic Medical Sonography 16 943 310 275 3.429 Dietetics 30 2071 1926 900 2.301 Emergency Medical Sciences 6 455 302 227 2.004 Health Administration 28 2781 2637 1533 1.814 Health Information Management 18 731 665 442 1.654 Nuclear Medicine Technology 15 354 251 151 2.344 Nursing 32 14725 7665 5929 2.484 Occupational Therapy 51 5469 1970 1797 3.043 Physical Therapy 66 20620 3516 3371 6.117 Physician Assistant 38 20354 2093 1969 10.337 Radiation Therapy Technology 15 736 264 230 3.2 Radiography 24 2071 825 749 2.765 Rehabilitation Counseling 11 625 602 302 2.07 Respiratory Therapist 23 1095 633 517 2.118 Speech-Language Path. & Audiology 42 8006 2216 2031 3.942 ASAHP Applicants and Enrollment by Program, 2010, all institutions
BLS Projection Assumptions (and Cautions) Because of the severity of the 2007-2009 recession, the 2010 starting point is quite low BLS projection are built on the assumption of a full-employment economy in 2020 [growth projections are not linear by year snc] BLS projections face more uncertainly than usual Health care & social assistance most rapidly growing segment of the economy, 2010-2020
Questions/Discussion Stephen N. Collier, Ph.D., Professor & Director Office of Health Professions Education and Workforce Development colliers@uab.edu (205) 934-3383 School of Health Professions University of Alabama at Birmingham