Yuri van Geest - Co-Author Exponential Organizations - Dutch Ambassador of SU - Managing Director of the Singularity University Summit Europe - Co-Founder Quantified Self Europe - Co-Founder Lean Startup Machine NL
Translations in 15 languages incl. English, Dutch, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Portugese etc.
10,000x cheaper in 7 years Exponential Technologies Biotech (DNA Sequencing)
Google & others - DNA Nanobots Soon: first human trial Led by Ido Bachelet (Israel s Bar-Ilan University) with critically ill leukemia patient, will receive an injection of DNA nanobots to destroy leukemia cells
Psychoneuroimmunology (PNI) + Technology PNI is the study of the interaction between psychological processes and the nervous and immune systems of the human body
Stitching the skin back onto a grape inside a bottle, with the FDA-approved Single-Site Wristed Needle Driver Da Vinci Surgical Robot
Exponential Technologies Declining Costs Increasing Capabilities
The average half life of a business competency has dropped from 30 years in 1984 to 5 years today.
89% of the Fortune 500 companies from 1955 are not on the list today.
The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has decreased from: 67 years (1920 s) to 15 years (today).
In the next 10 years 40% of all S&P 500 companies will disappear from this list
Market Cap to a Billion
Why are there ExOs?
Linear > Exponential
Scarcity > Abundance
Time to scale the organization Source: McKinsey 7S model
What are ExOs?
An Exponential Organization (ExO) is one whose impact (or output) is disproportionally large at least 10x larger compared to its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage exponential technologies. Definition
Software is eating the world, in all sectors Mark Andreessen founder of Netscape, renowned Venture Capitalist Andreessen-Horowitz In the future every company will become a software company
ExOs: Everything will become digital social, mobile & online for front-end functions nanotech, robotics, 3D printing, sensors, AI *Do-It-Yourself: Movement of people who create things without the help of experts or professionals **:Peer-to-Peer: a decentralized network leveraging direct interactions between people crowdsourcing (leveraging the crowd), DIY*, P2P**, crowd companies, AI, Nanofactories
Attributes
Linear vs Exponential Top-down, hierarchical Flat, distributed authority (Holacracy)
Linear vs Exponential Financial driven, closed (Status Quo) MTP driven, transparent via dashboards
Linear vs Exponential Strategy based on extrapolation from past (5-year operational plans) Strategy based on MTP, pivots and 1 year operational plan
Linear vs Exponential Linear, sequential thinking Experimentation and feedback loops
Linear vs Exponential Process inflexibility and risk intolerance Flexibility and smart failure celebration
Linear vs Exponential Innovation from inside, large number of FTEs Innovation at the edges and from outside sources
Examples of ExOs
Best ExOs ExO Score ExO Score 1 GitHub 76 11 Shapeways 72 2 Airbnb 74 12 Kiva.org 72 3 Uber 73 13 Etsy 72 4 Indiegogo 73 14 Cloudera 71 5 Google 73 15 Waze 71 6 Quirky 72 16 Kickstarter 71 7 Kaggle 72 17 BlaBlaCar 71 8 Pinterest 72 18 Medium 71 9 Reddit 72 19 Valve 70 10 Tumblr 72 20 Wikimedia 70 See the complete Top 100 at: http://top100.exponentialorgs.com
GitHub - GitHub is an open source code and collaboration community with 10 million members, 21 million repositories and market cap of $10B. Key differentiator: technical infrastructure of the internet as organizational design MTP Staff on Demand Community & Crowd Algorithms Leveraged Assets Engagement Best ExOs Interfaces Dashboards Experimentation Autonomy Social
Xiaomi - Chinese smartphone company, focusing on performance, quality and customer experience. Has a flat organization consisting of 5.000 employees and leverages a Community of 100 million fans for product ideation & iteration. MTP Staff on Demand Community & Crowd Algorithms Leveraged Assets Engagement Best ExOs Interfaces Dashboards Experimentation Autonomy Social
Fortune 100 as ExOs?
Fortune 100 ExO Top 10 Google 72.9 Amazon 66.2 Apple 62.6 International Business Machines (IBM) 61.0 Verizon Communications 58.8 General Electric 56.6 Microsoft 55.9 Cisco Systems, Inc. 55.8 The Walt Disney Company 54.8 Oracle Corporation 54.0
Fortune 100 ExO Lowest Scores Marathon Petroleum 32.3 Costco Wholesale 32.0 Philip Morris International Inc. 31.6 Hess Corporation 31.3 HCA Holdings, Inc. 31.0 Phillips 66 30.7 Tesoro Corporation 30.0 Valero Energy 29.8 Plains GP Holdings, L.P. 27.5 Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. 26.5 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. 23.0
Haier - Chinese appliance maker with 80,000 employees organized in 2005 in 2,000 self-managed units with decision-making authority (Autonomy). Market cap grew from $20B to $60B today in the last 3 years. Corporate Example MTP Staff on Demand Interfaces Community & Crowd Dashboards Algorithms Experimentation Leveraged Assets Autonomy Engagement Social
Takeaways Rent, don t own assets, people & resources Marginal cost of supply is dropping exponentially for the first time ever (besides marginal costs of demand) >>> double viral loops or network effects
Impact of ExOs
Market Cap improvement (2011 - today) $400B 2,5x $20B 10x $7B 14x $41,2B 20,5x $2B 40x $46B 46x $1B (2013) 50x $19B 19,000x +
Yuri van Geest Co-Author Exponential Organizations +31 6 113 19 290 @vangeest Yuri.vangeest@singularityu.org www.exponentialorgs.com