FSC Deloitte Future Leaders Award 2013 Australia s ageing population What existing policy settings could be changed, or new polices implemented, to better insulate Australia from the future economic impacts of an ageing population? Dragan Savic 12 August 2013 Australia s population is ageing and the resulting changes in the demographic structure of the country will bring about significant challenges for policy makers. This paper examines policy settings relating to the retirement system and financial services industry that will reduce the future economic impacts of population ageing in Australia. The ageing population will slow economic growth due to falling participation rates and lower discretionary spending by retirees. Together with sluggish economic growth, there will be a lower tax pool from which to fund increasing government spending on the Age Pension and healthcare. This will result in a fiscal gap in the Federal budget placing further strain on the economy through higher taxes and debt. To reduce the impact of an ageing population, the goal of policy settings should be to maximize private retirement savings through superannuation and increase the incidence of self-funded retirement. This will reduce spending on the Age Pension and in turn the budgetary fiscal gap. To achieve this, policy settings should increase compulsory and voluntary contributions to superannuation. The preservation age and Age Pension eligibility age need to increase to encourage deferral of retirement. Policies should ensure optimal use of superannuation savings post retirement through annuity products and increase capacity to privately fund health expenditure through superannuation. Increasing Australia s engagement with superannuation is crucial as this will ensure people start planning for their retirement earlier in life, thus being more prepared for retirement.
Contents 1. Introduction... 3 2. Economic impact of population ageing... 4 3. Increasing savings through the accumulation phase... 6 3.1 Voluntary contributions... 7 3.2 Superannuation guarantee... 7 3.3 Contribution caps... 7 3.4 Reducing contribution tax... 8 3.5 Threshold for receiving superannuation guarantee... 8 3.6 Parental leave super payments... 8 4. Deferring retirement... 9 4.1 Age Pension eligibility age... 9 4.2 Preservation age... 10 4.3 Encouraging older Australians to remain in the workforce... 10 5. Post retirement phase... 11 5.1 Lump sums or income streams... 11 5.2 Annuity products... 11 5.3 Default options in retirement... 13 6. Healthcare and superannuation... 13 7. Engagement... 13 8. Conclusion... 14 References... 15 2
1. Introduction The rate of population ageing in Australia is unprecedented and will permanently change the demographics of the country. The changing age structure of the population will have far reaching and severe economic impacts. As a large proportion of the population retires from employment, Australia will experience lower economic growth due to falling productivity and less discretionary spending from retirees. Additionally, there will be a lower tax pool from which to fund increased government spending on social welfare such as the Age Pension and healthcare. These conditions will result in a fiscal gap in the Federal budget, needing additional funding through higher taxes or increasing debt, further stifling economic growth. A range of policy settings can be changed or implemented to combat the economic effects of population ageing. This paper focuses on polices directly related to the retirement system and the financial services industry. Policy settings should: promote self funding of retirement through increasing superannuation savings; encourage a longer duration in employment; ensure optimal use of superannuation savings post retirement; increase capacity to privately fund health expenditure through superannuation; and increase engagement with superannuation. Through these measures, Australians will have greater capacity to self-fund their retirement and have a higher disposable income in retirement to inject into the economy. These policy settings will also reduce government spending on the Age Pension and in turn the budgetary fiscal gap. Reducing fiscal pressure on the Federal Budget will help maintain lower taxes and government debt, stimulating the economy and insulating Australia from the economic effect of an ageing population. Abrupt policy changes can cause in confusion and diminish confidence in the retirement system resulting in less than optimal long term investment decisions. Any changes to existing policies or implementation of new policies should be done in consultation with the industry and phased in over appropriate time horizons to ensure stability and certainty in the system. 3
2. Economic impact of population ageing Population ageing is the process where older individuals become a proportionately larger share of the total population 1 and is caused by declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. 2 The changing structure of Australia s population is illustrated in Figure 1, moving from relatively youthful in 1925 to a much higher proportion of older Australians going forward. Figure 1: Changing age structure of Australian population, 1925-2045 Source: Productivity Commission 2005, Economic implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra As Australia s population gets older the proportion of people over 65 years will increase (see Figure 2) and is expected to be over 20% by 2050. This will lead to a decline in total labour force participation from 65% today to less than 61% in 2049-50 3 resulting in lower productivity and decreased economic growth. The percent of the population aged over 85 years is particularly alarming because at this age a person has less capacity to contribute to the economy and is likely to be a greater burden through increased Age Pension and healthcare spending. 1 United Nations, 2002, World Population Ageing 1950-2050 2 Australian Government, 2004, Australia s Demographic Challenges 3 Australian Government Treasury Department, 2010, Intergenerational Report 2010 4
Figure 2: Proportions of Australian population aged over 65 Source: Intergenerational Report 2010 Conversely, the number of working aged people (between 18 and 65 years) will fall. In 1997 there were 5.5 people of working age to each Australian aged over 65 years and this ratio is expected to fall to 2.5 by 2050. 4 This means the tax pool to fund increased spending on the Age Pension and healthcare will be proportionately lower than today, causing substantial fiscal pressure as illustrated in Figure 3. Figure 3: Projected fiscal gap Source: Intergenerational Report 2010 4 Carey, D, 1999, Coping with Population Ageing in Australia Economics Department Working Papers No 217 5
The fiscal gap will need to be financed through increased government debt or higher taxes. Financing through continued government debt is unsustainable and would result in massive accumulation of debt that would need to be paid back by future generations. Financing the gap through increased tax in each year in which it fell would imply an increase in the tax to GDP ratio of 6.4 percentage points by 2045, or an increase of 21% in average tax rates. 5 Alternatively the fiscal gap can be reduced through lower public services, which like debt or high taxes is undesirable. If appropriate policies are not implemented today, Australia faces a bleak future due to its ageing population. 3. Increasing savings through the accumulation phase Over the coming decades approximately 75% of Australians will rely on a full or partial Age Pension to support their retirement. 6 As the proportion of retirees increases, government spending on the Age Pension will increase to 4% of GDP and will be the second highest area of government spending by 2049-50, behind healthcare which is also linked to the ageing population (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Projections of Australian government modelled spending by category Source: Intergenerational Report 2010 Setting policies that increase private retirement savings through superannuation will reduce reliance on the Age Pension which in turn will lessen the extent of the fiscal gap. This will reduce the economic impacts of ageing. Increasing retirement savings will also benefit the economy as retirees will have more disposable income to spend on restaurants, retail, entertainment, travel and all the other discretionary spending that stimulates the economy. 7 5 Productivity Commission 2005, Economic implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra 6 Rice Warner Actuaries, August 2012, Reforming the Age Pension 7 Cooper, B, 19 April 2013, The future of superannuation: Purpose, engagement, importance, American Chamber of Commerce 6
With higher personal assets, less retirees will be eligible for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card or the Pensioner Concession card, hence reducing government expenditure on health. In lieu of government funded health concessions, more retirees will be covered by private health insurance. Due to tax concessions, 8 policies which aim to bolster superannuation contributions will result in less tax revenue for the Federal Budget, increasing fiscal pressure in the short term. However, the forgone revenue should be seen as a long-term investment by the government to reduce the effects of ageing. 9 This will result in future budgetary savings through lower Age Pension payments, building future certainty through decreased funding obligations tomorrow in exchange for reduced tax revenue today. 10 There are a number of policy settings which can increase retirement savings through superannuation and they are discussed below. 3.1 Voluntary contributions Improving voluntary superannuation contributions was considered the most important factor in addressing retirement savings adequacy in the 2011 Financial Services Council/PwC CEO Report. 11 Currently, only 20% of employees make voluntary contributions. 12 One way to increase this figure is to implement a policy of soft compulsion. Under the above policy, 3% of the employee s gross income would be contributed into superannuation as a concessional contribution, paid directly by employers. Employees who do not wish to make this additional contribution would have the option to opt-out. 3.2 Superannuation guarantee Due to the inherent uncertainty in the value of superannuation contributions made from an opt-out policy, it may be necessary to take a more prescriptive policy tactic. One such strategy is legislating an additional increase in the superannuation guarantee (SG) rate. Following the SG increase from 9% to 12% gradually implemented to 2019, a further increase to 15% should be incrementally phased in by 2026. The resulting increase in superannuation savings can be measured by the fall in the Retirement Savings Gap (RSG), being the value of the shortfall the working population will in have funding an adequate retirement. It is estimated that increasing the SG rate from 9% to 12% will reduce the RSG as at 30 June 2011 by $184 billion or 18% 13 and it is expected an increase of SG to 15% will have similar results. 3.3 Contribution caps The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited (ASFA) recommends annual caps on concessional and non-concessional contributions be changed to lifetime caps. 8 Within the superannuation environment investment earnings and pre-tax contributions are taxed at 15% and capital gains tax is reduced to 10% on assets held for more than 12 months. Once in pension phase, the tax rate is reduced to 0% for investment income and capital gains. 9 Mercer Submission to Australian Tax Forum, 2011 10 Keating, P, Address to ASFA National Conference and Super Expo, 2012, Sydney 11 PwC, July 2011, Financial Services Council/PwC CEO Report Shaping the future of our industry 12 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited, February 2011, Spotlight on Henry: A comparative analysis of the Henry Recommendations with the proposed increase of the Superannuation Guarantee to 12 per cent 13 Rice Warner Actuaries, March 2012, Retirement Savings Gap at 30 June 2011 7
Lifetime contribution caps recognise the average person has varying capacity to make voluntary contributions at different phases of their life. Under such a system, caps could be set at $1.5 million for concessional contributions and $2.5 million for non-concessional contributions, with compulsory contributions excluded from the caps. This system would allow people to make contributions when they have the means, resulting in higher superannuation balances. 3.4 Reducing contribution tax Recently legislation designed to increase short-term government cash flow was implemented whereby individuals earning more than $300,000 per year will be subject to 30% tax on concessional contributions to superannuation. This policy should be repealed as it is an example of short-term thinking with negative longterm consequences. It will directly reduce superannuation balances while being complicated and costly for the superannuation industry to administer. These additional administration costs will be passed on to all members of a superannuation fund reducing the efficiency of superannuation as a vehicle for retirement savings. A similar policy was implemented in 1996 and it ended up costing the superannuation industry and members as much to administer as the government collected in extra taxes. 14 3.5 Threshold for receiving superannuation guarantee Currently there is a minimum salary threshold of $450 per month for receiving SG payments which disadvantages part time and low paid employees. Removing the threshold would benefit around 250,000 individuals 15 and is a simple and cost effective way of increasing retirement savings. Even though these individuals would only receive modest contributions the compounding nature of superannuation would result in meaningful increases in their retirement savings. 3.6 Parental leave super payments Under current legislation SG contributions do not apply to paid parental leave. 16 Changing the legislation to include SG contributions on paid parental leave will help increase superannuation savings for individuals who take time out of the workforce to start a family. The cost to the government of implementing this policy is estimated to only be around $20m per year. 17 Employers such as the Westpac Group have a policy of providing full superannuation payments to employees for up to 52 weeks while on parental leave. 18 The cost of such a policy would be prohibitive for most small businesses however, for large employers the government could mandate that a similar policy is adopted. 14 Power, T, 26 May 2013, Double contributions tax for high-income earners, Super Guide 15 Clare, R, September 2012, Equity and superannuation the real issues, The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited 16 Australian Government Department of Human Services 17 Clare, R, September 2012, Equity and superannuation the real issues, The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited 18 Workplace Gender Equality Agency, The how to guide for employer-provided parental leave, 2013 8
4. Deferring retirement Deferring retirement simply involves individuals retiring at a later age, and even small increases in the retirement age will help insulate Australia against the economic effects of ageing. The benefits of deferring retirement to the Australian economy are: increasing superannuation savings through longer accumulation periods; reducing period of life spent in retirement consuming accumulated superannuation savings, thereby decreasing reliance on the Age Pension; and increasing productivity through a higher participation rate. The benefits of deferring retirement on the RSG are illustrated in Figure 5. Each additional year spent working reduces the RSG by approximately $200 billion, translating to higher private retirement savings and a reduced need for the Age Pension. Figure 5: Total Retirement Savings Gap - delaying retirement ($ billion) Source: Rice Warner Actuaries, Longevity Savings Gap Research & Policy Options Policies relating to the preservation age and Age Pension Eligibility age can be designed to increase the retirement age, which currently is 61.4 years. 19 4.1 Age Pension eligibility age The current eligibility age for the Age Pension in Australia is 65 years and is gradually increasing to 67 years. The increase in the eligibility age is estimated to save around $30,000 per retiree in reduced pension payments. 20 As life expectancies are continually increasing (by 2050, average life expectancy will be 90 years), 21 the eligibility age should be linked to average life expectancy. This will reduce future government spending on the Age Pension and the fiscal gap. 19 The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited, May 2013, Super system evolution: Achieving consensus through a shared vision, ASFA White Paper Part 4 20 Rice Warner Actuaries, January 2010, Superannuation Adequacy 21 Australian Government Treasury Department, 2010, Intergenerational Report 2010 9
4.2 Preservation age The preservation age is currently between 55 years and 60 years and is being phased to 60 years by 2024. The preservation age directly influences a person s decision when to retire as it determines when they can access their superannuation savings. The earlier a person can access their superannuation savings the sooner those savings start being eroded, which can increase reliance on the Age Pension in later years. Therefore, it is important to increase the preservation age as it will: increase the average age of retirement; increase retirement savings; and decrease spending on the Age Pension ASFA and Rice Warner Actuaries propose the preservation age be set at 5 years less than the eligibility age for the Age Pension. Accordingly when the eligibility age for the Age Pension is increased to 67, the preservation age should be increased to 62 and linked to any future increase in the Age Pension eligibility age. Increasing the preservation age will only be effective in addressing the economic effects of ageing if there are employment opportunities for older Australians. Not having the ability to remain employed prior to having access to superannuation will result in a greater portion of retirement savings being held outside superannuation to provide an income during retirement prior to reaching preservation age. 22 This creates inefficiencies in saving for retirement, resulting in lower overall savings. 4.3 Encouraging older Australians to remain in the workforce Policies directly related to the retirement system can be implemented or changed to encourage older Australians to remain in the workforce after reaching preservation age or Age Pension eligibility age. This can be achieved by the following policy changes: removing age limits for all superannuation contributions 23 (subject to a work test); 24 amend the means test for the Age Pension to increase the amount of earned income allowed before reducing Age Pension payments. The earned income test implies a high effective marginal tax rate for those who would sacrifice a higher Age Pension in favour of increased hours of work; 25 and reintroduce a scheme to defer Age Pensions. These changes encourage continuing employment after reaching retirement age and will increase both productivity and retirement savings. 22 Rice Warner Actuaries, January 2010, Superannuation Adequacy 23 From 1 July 2012 the age limit to receiving superannuation guarantee was removed, however age limits on some contribution remain, for example salary sacrifice. 24 Australian Government, 2009, Australia s future tax system Part 2 25 Rice Warner Actuaries, August 2012, Reforming the Age Pension 10
5. Post retirement phase Due to increasing life expectancy the retirement system needs to be able to cater for long periods of retirement and have mechanisms to counter longevity risk (the risk of outliving savings). Optimising use of accumulated superannuation savings will benefit the economy through higher living standards for retirees and lower spending on the Age Pension. Policies settings should: encourage use of income streams; ensure superannuation savings are not exhausted in the early phase of retirement; and promote use of annuity products. 26 5.1 Lump sums or income streams Taking superannuation savings as lump sum payments should be discouraged as it results in savings being consumed in the early phase of retirement and increases reliance on the Age Pension. In contrast, income streams should be encouraged as these provide income for a longer period in retirement. This can be achieved by imposing a limit on tax-free lump sums, with any amount taken above the limit taxed at 15%. 27 5.2 Annuity products Annuity products include account based pensions, term annuities, lifetime annuities, deferred lifetime annuities and variable annuities. The advantages of annuity products, in particular deferred lifetime annuities, can be seen by looking at a typical drawdown of superannuation savings in Figure 6. By age 86, all superannuation savings are consumed and the individual would be completely reliant on the Age Pension (assuming limited other savings). A 20 year deferred lifetime annuity would commence at age 85 and ensure the individual is able to self fund their retirement or only require a partial Age Pension. Figure 6: Consumption of superannuation savings Source: Rice Warner, Reforming the Age Pension 26 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2012, The OECD Roadmap for the Good Design of Defined Contribution Pension Plans 27 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited, May 2013, Super system evolution: Achieving consensus through a shared vision, ASFA White Paper 11
There are various legislative barriers to the development and use of annuity products. 28 Policy settings need to be adjusted to increase the variety and use of these products as they are an effective tool for managing longevity risk. Regulations 1.05 and 1.06 of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Regulations (SIS) should be amended to facilitate product innovation in pensions and annuities. 29 ASFA have recommended the SIS regulations be amended to: provide equivalent treatment to post-retirement products offered by life insurance companies and by superannuation funds; set out general requirements for longevity products rather than mirror specific characteristics of existing products; and allow products which provide deferred benefits past normal retirement age to be offered. Changes to APRA regulations covering minimum surrender values of pension and annuity products are required to ensure deferred annuity products are commercially viable. Applying minimum surrender values to deferred annuities results in these products being unattractive from the point of view of a provider and uncompetitive pricing for consumers. 30 The current means test for the Age Pension takes into account the full purchase price of a deferred annuity. 31 To encourage greater use of annuities, this policy should be amended to exclude deferred annuities from the asset test. The Government has taken a step in the right direction and from 1 July 2014 deferred lifetime annuities will have the same concessional tax treatment that superannuation assets supporting income streams receive. 32 The financial services industry will have a key role to play in designing and encouraging the use of annuity products. Actions the industry can take are summarised in Table 1. Table 1: Encouraging us of annuity products Product development Develop products at various price points to ensure widespread take up. Develop wide variety of deferred lifetime annuity products as these offer insurance against longevity at a reasonable cost to the retiree. Encouraging use Raise awareness of annuity products through information brochures sent in the 5 years before preservation age. 28 Howes, M, 23 February 2012, Exploring barriers to Australia s annuities market, Actuaries Institute 29 Actuaries Institute, August 2012, Australia s Longevity Tsunami What Should We Do? 30 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited, May 2013, Super system evolution: Achieving consensus through a shared vision, ASFA White Paper 31 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited, May 2013, Super system evolution: Achieving consensus through a shared vision, ASFA White Paper 32 Chartered Accountants Superannuation Bulletin Edition 07, 5 April 2013 12
5.3 Default options in retirement Engagement with superannuation might increase as a person approaches retirement, however a large portion of the population do not have sufficient knowledge of financial products to make informed decisions when selecting retirement products. MySuper has created a system of defaults throughout the accumulation phase that ensure a disengaged person has appropriate investments and a similar system in the retirement phase would ensure appropriate retirement strategies are taken. 33 Under such a system a retiree would take an income stream and only have access to limited lump sums. If their account balance was above a specified threshold they would be required to purchase a lifetime or deferred lifetime annuity. 6. Healthcare and superannuation The Committee for Economic Development of Australia recommends 3% of superannuation be quarantined and used to meet rising health expenditure. 34 As outlined in Figure 4, spending on healthcare is estimated to increase to 7% of GDP by 2050 and become the highest area of government spending. Using a portion of superannuation savings to fund healthcare will shift some of the cost burden back to private consumers reducing government spending and the fiscal gap. Between 1% and 3% of superannuation contributions 35 (capped to a specified amount) should be set aside specifically for healthcare related costs. Implementation of this scheme would require a detailed policy stipulating procedures that are covered under the new funding arrangement and the interaction with private health insurance and Medicare. 7. Engagement Australians have poor engagement with superannuation. 36 A population more engaged with their retirement savings and available strategies will be better prepared for retirement through: increased voluntary contributions; more appropriate investment strategies; and better use of savings in retirement. This will create an environment where Australians take ownership of their retirement, increasing levels of self-funded retirees and reducing expenditure on the Age Pension. 33 Actuaries Institute, August 2012, Australia s Longevity Tsunami What Should We Do? 34 Committee for Economic Development Australia, April 2013, Healthcare: Reform or Ration 35 This would be included in the superannuation guarantee increase to 15% (that is compulsory contributions would not exceed 15%). 36 PwC, 2010, Financial Services Council/PwC CEO Survey 2010 How can our industry help secure the future of all Australians? 13
While it is hard to force people to be more engaged, there are measures the government can take that will increase engagement. These include: increasing the frequency of superannuation payments to monthly; 37 change reporting requirement for annual payment summaries so total compulsory SG contributions are shown; and increase financial literacy through programs in high school that are superannuation specific. The superannuation industry can also play a role in increasing engagement and financial literacy in the general public through: simplified product designs; developing scaled advice models; and increasing accessibility to educational material via websites and mobile devices. 8. Conclusion Australia s ageing population will cause significant challenges. Forward looking policies relating to the retirement system are required to address the economic impacts ageing presents. Policies increasing retirement savings and reducing government spending on the Age Pension will help insulate Australia from the future economic impacts of an ageing population. Specifically policy settings should: increase contributions to superannuation and promote self-funded retirement; encourage longer working lives; ensure superannuation savings are used appropriately post retirement; reduce reliance on government funded healthcare; and increase engagement with superannuation. By implementing the necessary policy reforms today, future generations will not be burdened with the economic effects of an ageing population. 37 Australian Government, 2009, Australia s future tax system Part 2 14
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