Intelligence Applications & Intelligence Led Decision Making for Security Professionals 13th European Security Conference The Hague, 2 nd April 2014 Erik de Vries, CPP & Dick Oey, MSc, CPP Intelligence. Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance ASIS EU 2014 2 Intellgence Led Decision Making 1
Before making a strategic decision 1. Do you know all you need to know? 2. what you don t know? 3. where to find what you need to know? 4. what to do with the info once you find it? ASIS EU 2014 3 Introduction Erik de Vries, CPP ASIS EU 2014 4 Intellgence Led Decision Making 2
Introduction Dick Oey, MSc CPP CCIA ASIS EU 2014 5 Preferred outcome ASIS EU 2014 6 Intellgence Led Decision Making 3
ASIS EU 2014 7 Agenda Introduction Threats Security Domains Triple A Knowledge Cycle Practical cases Better and worse cases Q & A Discussion ASIS EU 2014 8 Intellgence Led Decision Making 4
Do you know all you kneed to know? 20 th Century vs. 21 st Century Tangible, linear, comprehensible Analog, singular, deterministic Mechanistic, logical, simple Not easy Manageable CHANCE X EFFECT Known knowns & Known unknowns What don t you know? 20 th Century vs. 21 st Century Networked, Adaptive, Creative, Positive Pro-Active, Holistic, Engaged, Social Sustainable, Responsible, Constructive Multi-Dimensional Digital, Viral Unknown knowns & Unkwown unknowns ASIS EU 2014 10 Intellgence Led Decision Making 5
If you can see the invisible, you can do the impossible ASIS EU 2014 12 Intellgence Led Decision Making 6
The last Kodak moment.. Revenues $ 16 billion (1996) 12.000 employees Bankruptcy 2012 Inventor of the digital camera in 1976 ASIS EU 2014 13 Kodak moment = Security moment? Kodak was the Google of its day; pioneering technology and innovative marketing You press the button, we do the rest 90% of film and 85% of camera sales in US Decision: No shift from film tot consumer electronics Not willing to trade 90% (film) market share for 10% in consumer electronics ASIS EU 2014 14 Intellgence Led Decision Making 7
Kodak moment = Security moment? Now what if... you want to hold on to your market share: Selling security guards hours Selling physical security measures Etc. Instead of entering into new innovative security solutions ASIS EU 2014 15 Threats Human gate ASIS EU 2014 16 Intellgence Led Decision Making 8
Security (management) domains People Security ICT Security Security Management Physical Security Information Security ASIS EU 2014 17 ASIS EU 2014 18 Intellgence Led Decision Making 9
Where to find what you need to know? You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today. Abraham Lincoln ASIS EU 2014 19 Informed decision-making Lessons Learned From History: The Military Process Out- OODA Looping the history of planning success Doctrine IPB MDMP Operation ASIS EU 2014 20 Intellgence Led Decision Making 10
System of Systems Analysis From: Guillaume Nicaise ASIS EU 2014 21 21 st Century Business Continuity Survival in the information age requires A knowledge driven corporate decision model Knowledge management & foreknowledge Flexible & agile organization ASIS EU 2014 22 Intellgence Led Decision Making 11
Implementation: Triple A Security Intelligence Protective Intelligence Red teaming ASIS EU 2014 23 Actions Steps Examples Practical ASIS EU 2014 24 Intellgence Led Decision Making 12
Practical cases Crisis management exercise Euro Arabic spring WTC Next level of Foreknowledge: Tactical: Operational: Strategic: Predictive Profiling Crime Analysis Red Teaming ASIS EU 2014 25 Remember? 1. Do you know all you need to know? 2. what you don t know? 3. where to find what you need to know? 4. what to do with the info once you find it? ASIS EU 2014 26 Intellgence Led Decision Making 13
Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU 2014 27 Platform Information Exchange Security Intelligence Protective Intelligence Red teaming ASIS EU 2014 28 Intellgence Led Decision Making 14
Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU 2014 29 Analytical Hiërarchy Model Analytical Hierarchy Behaviour & Movements Indicator Proactive Behaviour Prediction Events / Incidents Detectability Intellgence Led Decision Making 15
Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU 2014 31 Certification & Education Standards Protective Intelligence / Triple A Certified Security Intelligence Professional (CSIP ) Certified Crime & Intelligence Analyst Certified Protection Professional ASIS EU 2014 32 Intellgence Led Decision Making 16
Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU 2014 33 Acquire Foreknowledge Competitor Model Knowledge Management Informed Decision Enlightened Action ASIS EU 2014 34 Intellgence Led Decision Making 17
Intelligence. Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance Reducing security is an option but only if it s a conscious decision! ASIS EU 2014 35 Security innovation needs: a shift from repression to prevention & Thinking out of the Box ASIS EU 2014 36 Intellgence Led Decision Making 18
Thank you @Erik_de_Vries http://www.linkedin.com/pub/erikde-vries-cpp/2/65a/24 https://www.linkedin.com/profile/ view?id=22670177 Erik.deVries@DutchRisk.nl +31 6 1174 4521 Erik de Vries CPP Director/Owner DutchRisk bv Chairman ASIS Benelux info@enigmasolutions.eu +31 6 2462 8723 HDGT Oey, MSc, CPP, CCIA Principal Consultant - Director Enigma Solutions ASIS EU 2014 37 ASIS EU 2014 38 Intellgence Led Decision Making 19