CIS Project Management



Similar documents
Systems Analysis and Design

Human Resource Management (HRM)

Project Planning and Scheduling

Chapter 6: Project Time Management. King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals SWE 417: Software Project Management Semester: 072

Chapter 3 Managing the Information Systems (IS) Project

Chapter 6 (part 1) Project Time Management. (Project Scheduling)

Scheduling Glossary Activity. A component of work performed during the course of a project.

Network Diagram Critical Path Method Programme Evaluation and Review Technique and Reducing Project Duration

Goals of the Unit. spm adolfo villafiorita - introduction to software project management

Project Time Management

Chapter 6: Project Time Management

Project Planning. Lecture Objectives. Basic Reasons for Planning. Planning. Project Planning and Control System. Planning Steps

Project Time Management

SE351a: Software Project & Process Management

Importance of Project Schedules. matter what happens on a project. projects, especially during the second half of projects

Chapter 2: Project Time Management

PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT. 1 Powered by POeT Solvers Limited

Operational Research. Project Menagement Method by CPM/ PERT

Introduction to Project Management

ONLINE SUPPLEMENTAL BAPPENDIX PROJECT SCHEDULES WITH PERT/CPM CHARTS

Chapter 4: Project Time Management

Use project management tools

Learning Objectives. Learning Objectives (continued) Importance of Project Schedules

Information Technology Project Management, Sixth Edition. Note: See the text itself for full citations. More courses at cie-wc.edu

8. Project Time Management

Input, Output and Tools of all Processes

Chapter 6. (PMBOK Guide)

Cambridge International AS and A Level Computer Science

Scheduling Fundamentals, Techniques, Optimization Emanuele Della Valle, Lecturer: Dario Cerizza

The Project Planning Process Group

Project Management Glossary

Introduction to Project Management. What is the Project Management Life Cycle? Common Life Cycle Characteristics

Lecture 6: Project Time Management By: Prof. Lili Saghafi. Information Technology Project Management, Fifth Edition

The Plan s Journey From Scope to WBS to Schedule

The work breakdown structure can be illustrated in a block diagram:

Object-Oriented Analysis. with the Unified Process. John W. Satzinger Southwest Missouri State University. Robert B. Jackson Brigham Young University

專 案 管 理 實 務 嘉 義 縣 政 府 學 分 班 : 管 理 實 務 專 題 2006 中 正 大 學 企 管 系 助 理 教 授 周 瑞 生

pm4dev, 2015 management for development series Project Schedule Management PROJECT MANAGEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND DESIGN DO NOT COPY

Time Management. Part 5 Schedule Development. Richard Boser

Deming s 14 Points for TQM

Basic Concepts. Project Scheduling and Tracking. Why are Projects Late? Relationship between People and Effort

Project Time Management

Basic Project Management & Planning

Project Time Management

Project and Production Management Prof. Arun Kanda Department of Mechanical Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi

ME 407 Mechanical Engineering Design Spring 2016

PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT

PROJECT EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT) AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

IMCPM04 Project Scheduling and Cost Control. Course Outline

PMI Lexicon of Project Management Terms

MECH 896 Professional Development for MEng Students. Homework Discussion. Scheduling Overview. Winter 2015: Lecture #5 Project Time Management

Chapter 1.7 Project Management. 1. Project financing is one of the step of project management- State True or False

Appendix A of Project Management. Appendix Table of Contents REFERENCES...761

Scheduling. Anne Banks Pidduck Adapted from John Musser

Scheduling Resources and Costs

Module 3: The Project Planning Stage

Software Project Management I

TIME MANAGEMENT TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT. Hazar Hamad Hussain *

Integration Mgmt / Initiating Process Group 4.1 Develop Project Charter

Module 11. Software Project Planning. Version 2 CSE IIT, Kharagpur

SCHEDULING AND TIME MANAGEMENT. Project Management and Leadership 2015D, PhD, PMP

Project Management Chapter 3

EXAM EXEMPLAR QUESTIONS

Develop Project Charter. Develop Project Management Plan

Unit 4: Time Management (PMBOK Guide, Chapter 6)

Project Management Planning

7. PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Systems Analysis and Design in a Changing World, Fifth Edition

The management of the projects with MS Project

Fundamentals of Project Management. Who am I. Schedule

HOW TO START WORKING WITH P2WARE PROJECT MANAGER 7?

CPM -100: Principles of Project Management

Time Management. Herb Pollard III

Scope management can be defined as controlling what is and what is not a part of the project.

Project Integration Management

The 10 Knowledge Areas & ITTOs

Table of Contents Author s Preface... 3 Table of Contents... 5 Introduction... 6 Step 1: Define Activities... 7 Identify deliverables and decompose

PMP Exam Preparation Answer Key

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

Retained Fire Fighters Union. Introduction to PRINCE2 Project Management

The Project In the beginning was The Project, and then arose the Assumptions.! And The Project was without form and the Assumptions were void.

CSC 443: IT Project Management Midterm 1 exam - Spring semester March 21 st, 2012

Charting Your Course: Charts and Graphs for IT Projects

output: communications management plan

PBL: Project Management. Competency: Project Definition

Project Management Dr. James A. Bednar

Pearson Education Limited 2003

Project Management Certificate (IT Professionals)

Certificate In Project Management (CIPM)

Software Engineering CSCI Lesson 9 Project Management Part 1- Planning & Estimating. February 23, 2015

Project Management DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

PROJECT MANAGEMENT PLAN TEMPLATE < PROJECT NAME >

CISC 322 Software Architecture. Project Scheduling (PERT/CPM) Ahmed E. Hassan

IT2403-SOFTWARE PROJECT MANAGEMENT 2 MARKS QUESTIONS

Certification Preparation Course LATVIKON (R.E.P.)Centre

Information Technology Project Management

SITE & PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Project management Project Management

Certification Exam Objectives: PK0-003

Transcription:

Topic # 4 CIS Project Management A Correspondence of Positions and Languages/Communications in CIS Analysis, Design, Development and Implementation (Engineering) Industry

Correspondence of Positions and Languages/Communications in CIS Development Industry CIS PROGRAMMER (with Associate Diploma) Language Programming Languages: Java, C++, PHP, XML, Perl, etc. Outcomes: instructions for COMPUTER (programs, codes) COMPUTER Correspondence of Positions and Languages/Communications in CIS Development Industry CIS ANALYST (with M.Sc. Diploma) Language Models and Diagrams Outcomes: instructions for CIS PROGRAMMERs (Use Cases, Class D, DFD, ERD, Architectural Model, Hierarchical Design Model, GUI Design Model, etc.) CIS PROGRAMMER (with Associate Diploma) Language Programming Languages: Java, C++, PHP, XML, Perl, etc. Outcomes: instructions for COMPUTER (programs, codes) COMPUTER

Correspondence of Positions and Languages/Communications in CIS Development Industry CIS PROJECT MANAGER (with M.Sc. Diploma) Language Management Plans Outcomes: instructions for CS SW ENGINEERS (Time M. Plan, Cost M. Plan, Human Resources M. Plan, Material M. Plan, Risk M. Plan, Comm. M. Plan, Change M. Plan, etc.) CIS ANALYST (with M.Sc. Diploma) Language Models and Diagrams Outcomes: instructions for CIS PROGRAMMERs (Use Cases, Activity D, Swimlane D, DOs, Class D, DFD, ERD, STD, Architectural Model, Hierarchical design Model, GUI Design Model, etc.) CIS PROGRAMMER (with Associate Diploma) Language Programming Languages: Java, C++, PHP, XML, Perl, etc. Outcomes: instructions for COMPUTER (programs, codes) COMPUTER Correspondence of Positions and Languages/Communications in CIS Development Industry CIS PROJECT MANAGER (with M.Sc. Diploma) Language Management Plans Outcomes: instructions for CS SW ENGINEERS (Time M. Plan, Cost M. Plan, Human Resources M. Plan, Material M. Plan, Risk M. Plan, Comm. M. Plan, Change M. Plan, etc.) CIS ANALYST (with M.Sc. Diploma) Language Models and Diagrams Outcomes: instructions for CIS PROGRAMMERs (Use Cases, Activity D, Swimlane D, DOs, Class D, DFD, ERD, STD, Architectural Model, Hierarchical design Model, GUI Design Model, etc.) CIS PROGRAMMER (with Associate Diploma) Language Programming Languages: Java, C++, PHP, XML, Perl, etc. Outcomes: instructions for COMPUTER (programs, codes) COMPUTER

Open Positions: System Analysts and CIS Project Manager System Analyst (15610 open positions)

System Project Manager (23745 open positions) CIS Development Projects: Success Rate

1995-2009: CIS/IT Development Projects: Success Rate Why CIS/IT Development Projects Fail?

Project and Project Manager Project and Project Management Project: A planned sequence of related activities (tasks) to reach project goal a top quality final product (information system) that meets all user s requirements. Project Management: A process of initiating, planning, executing, controlling, and closing down a project. Project Manager (PM) is a system analyst with - analytical skills, - management skills, - technical skills, - communication skills, and - leadership skills. Project manager is responsible for all 5 main project process groups: 1) project initiation, 2) project planning, 3) project execution, 4) project control, and 5) project closedown.

Common Activities of Project Manager 1. Leadership Influencing the activities of other members of project team. 2. Management Getting project completed using strong managerial skills and outstanding knowledge of CIS PM BOK 3. Customer Relations Working closely with customers to assure project deliverables meet customer s requirements 4. Conceptual/technical problem solving Designing and sequencing activities (tasks) to attain project goals 5. Conflict management Managing conflict within a project team 6. Team management Managing the project team for effective performance (highest possible effectiveness) 7. Risk and change management Identifying, assessing, and managing the risks and day-to-day changes in project activities A Project Manager Activities

Top 7 Competencies of Project Manager 1. Communications Skills - verbal and written 2. Leadership Skills 3. Organizational Skills - planning, time management 4. Interpersonal Skills 5. Negotiation Skills - diplomacy and mediating 6. Team Building Skills 7. Technical Skills Source: Positive Leadership In Project Management by Rachael Miletkov Analytical Skills Technical Skills Main Groups of CIS PM Skills ability to see things as systems, identify, analyze, and solve problems in an optimal way for a specific organization. ability to understand how computers, data networks, software, operating systems, etc. work together, as well as their potentials and limitations. Management Skills include organization s recourse management, project management (people and money), risk management, and change management. Communication Skills include effective interpersonal communication (written, verbal, visual, electronic, face-to-face conversations, presentations in front of groups), listening, group facilitation skills. Before 2000-2001: the only requirement: After 2001: the compound requirement: 100% technical skills 25% - analytical skills 25% - technical skills 25% - management skills 25% - communication skills Conclusion: CS/CIS degree with Mngt skills vs a degree in Management

CIS Project Management Body of Knowledge (CIS PM BOK) CIS PM BOK: Knowledge Areas 9 CIS PMBOK Knowledge Areas: CIS PM Process Machine Integration Management Scope Management Time Management Cost Management Quality Management Human Resources Management Communications Management Risk Management Procurement Management

CIS PM Process Groups and Knowledge Areas The CIS Project Management Body of Knowledge framework used for the text is structured around: 5 process groups which are made up of component processes consisting of tools, techniques, and outcomes organized within 9 knowledge areas CIS PM: Process Groups Initiating processes authorizing the beginning or ending of a project or phase Planning processes ensuring that the objectives of the project are achieved in the most appropriate way Executing processes coordinating all resources (people and material) during the implementation of the project plan Controlling processes monitoring of project variances from what was planned to actual progress Closing processes formal acceptance of the project or a phase and updating of the project information base with lessons learned CIS PM Process Groups Overlap in Time

Project Planning Major Activities during Project Planning: 1) describing project scope, alternatives, and feasibility; 2) dividing the project into manageable tasks; 3) estimating resources and creating a resource plan; 4) developing a preliminary schedule (timetable of activities); 5) developing team communications and a communication plan; 6) determining project standards and procedures; 7) identifying and assessing risk; 8) creating a preliminary budget; 9) developing a statement of work; and 10) setting a baseline project plan. Almost all these items will be included into Course Project. CIS Project Management: Time Management

Project Breakdown Project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A work breakdown structure (WBS) is a method used to define group of project's discrete work elements (or, tasks) in a way that helps organize and define the total work scope of the project. WBS element may be a process, product, data, a component, a service, or any combination. 100% rule: The WBS represents 100 percent of the work required to produce the final products, and, therefore, all tasks must add up to 100% of the total scope and should not go over 100%.

WBS Example: Tabular Form A task (activity) Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) Rules: Use boxes to represent activities (nodes) and lines with arrows to represent the dependencies see example next slide Microsoft Project Sample PD The task names are for this example shortened to just letters. The lines with arrows are not labeled Notice that some of the activities (C, F, G, and H) have more than one predecessor; some only have a successor (Begin) and some only have a predecessor (End)

Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) or Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) Network Diagram A task (activity) Rules: Lines with arrows represent tasks Circles with words or numbers represent the begin or end of a task Processes: 1. You draw the first Begin circle or node and then proceed with the tasks that do not have a predecessor, usually the first tasks to be done on the project. These are shown in the diagram as lines A, K, and F 2. Then you move to the next tasks listed in the WBS in order of precedence. Activity B has a predecessor of A and Activity C has a predecessor of B and so on. Tasks M, G, and L have no successors so we draw their arrows to the End node 3. You add circles at the end of each arrow as an end point. At the end of the process you then number each circle 4. Be prepared as you draw this diagram to draw and then erase and redraw as you work your way down the task list 5. You may need to add dummy activities to complete the diagram Basics of Time Scheduling: Diagramming Technique

Basics of Project Scheduling Activities (tasks, steps) they are characterized by TE, TL, TT, ST. TE - early completion time (the earliest time when a given activity or step could be completed TL latest completion time TT time (duration) of a task ST - slack time. It refers to the amount of time an activity (a step, a task) can be delayed without affecting the start time of any successor tasks. The critical path represents the shortest time in which a project can be completed. In other words, any activity on the critical path that is delayed in completion will result in delaying the entire project. Slack Time and Critical Path (examples) Slack Time (for step # 2) is 8 days. Critical Path: Steps ## 1, 3, 4

Diagrams for Project Scheduling Several diagramming tools are used in project scheduling, including - the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), - Gantt charts, - Critical Path Method (CPM), and - AOA (Activity on Arrow) charts. A PERT Diagram is a graphical depiction of project task activities and their interrelationships. The great feature of a PERT chart is that the ordering of activities is shown by connecting an activity with its predecessor and successor activities. Once all tasks are defined, sequenced, and have durations, a project schedule may be constructed. Basics of PERT Diagramming Project: Design and development of a new Web site Step # Name of an Activity (project step) Duration (days) Predecessor Successor 1 Analyze of existing Web sites 5-2 2 Create a Design Model (using Prototype approach) 8 1 3, 5 3 Development (coding) of Web site 7 2 4 4 Testing of Web site (links, functions) 4 3 6 5 Documentation (online HELP system) 3 2 6 6 Implementation (on department s server) 4 4, 5 -

Example of the PERT Diagram (with a slack time and critical path) T E =13 T L =13 T E =20 T L =20 T E =24 T L =24 2 3 4 T E =5 T L =5 TT=8 TT=7 T E =16 T L =24 TT=4 T E =28 T L =28 1 5 6 TT=5 TT=3 TT=4 ST=8 ST(5) = TT(3) + TT(4) TT(5) = 7 + 4 3 = 8 Critical Path Non Critical Path T E =5 T L =5 1 ET=5 Example of the PERT Diagram (with 2 possible critical paths) T E =11 T L =11 2 ET=6 T E =11 T L =11 T E =13 T L =13 4 T E =18.5 T L =21 3 6 7 ET=6 ET=2 5 ET=5.5 T E =18 T L =18 ET=5 T E =22 T L =22 8 ET=3 ET=1 T E =21 T L =21 Two critical paths: 1-2-4-6-7-8 and 1-3-4-6-7-8 Critical Path Non Critical Path

Example of the PERT Diagram (in Microsoft Project Tool) Human Resource Management (HRM)

FROM Time Management KA TO Human Resources Management KA Time management: - tasks, - task sequences, - all times (eraly start, late start, etc.) - projects schedule (diagrams) Human Resource Management consists of 3 main components: 1. Roles and Responsibilities Matrix (RRM) 2. Project organization chart (POC) 3. Project staffing plan HR Management Planning: Components Main components: Workforce (human resources - HR) planning Hiring/Recruitment (sometimes separated into attraction and selection) Skills testing and skills management Orientation and On-boarding Work time management Compensation (in wage or salary) + various benefits (medical, retirement, etc.) Performance appraisal Professional training and development Personnel administration Payroll (sometimes assigned to accounting rather than HRM) Employee benefits administration Personnel cost planning Labor relations

Staffing (Human Resources) Per Task Cost Management

Cost Management consists of 2 main components: - estimate costs - determine budget Objectives: Define and understand key cost management terms Understand all the components of a project budget Cost Management Planning: main parts

Importance of Cost Management Planning Cost is a resource sacrificed or fore-gone to achieve a specific objective or something given up in exchange Costs are usually measured in monetary units like dollars Project cost management is concerned with the 1) planning, 2) estimating, 3) budgeting, and 4) control of the cost of project resources needed to complete 100% of the activities of the project Cost estimating: developing an estimate of the costs and resources needed to complete an entire project Cost budgeting: allocating the overall cost estimate to individual work items to establish a baseline for measuring performance Tools for CIS Project Management

Tools for Project Management Project Scheduling (74 systems) Project Management Software (212 systems) Project Portfolio Management (18 systems) Project Estimating ( 45 systems) Resource Planning and Scheduling (27 systems) Project Accounting (24 systems) Requirements Management (26 systems) Bug and Defect Tracking (78 systems) Document Management (54 systems) Project Scheduling Tools Project Scheduling Tool a comprehensive enterprise project scheduling and resource planning software tool that usually generates job plan definitions including tasks, durations, resources and scheduling logic. Examples: Microsoft Project, AdHoc Charts, etaskmaker, etc. Web site: http://www.infogoal.com/category.php?n=117&page=1&sort=&direction

Project Management Software Project Management Software a comprehensive enterprise project management system that includes 1) project planning, 2) task management, 3) resource management, 4) project costing, and 5) document management. Examples: AbacusPM. @Task, ActiveProject, Artemis, Bizwall, CommonOffice.com, EasyProjects.net, epm, etc. Web sites: http://www.web-based-software.com/ http://www.infogoal.com/category.php?n=118&page=1&sort=&direction Project Portfolio Management Tools Project Portfolio Management Tools Tools of this type usually support multiple, configurable hierarchies of measurements, graphical drilldown, auditable calculations and reporting. Examples: Alacrity Results Management (ARM), Project InVision Suite, Prosight Project Manegement, etc. Web site: http://www.infogoal.com/category.php?n=121&page=1&sort=&direction

Tools for Project Scheduling Every PM and System Analyst must know project scheduling basics and tools (about 74 systems are available); hyperlinked examples of tools include but are not limited to: Scitor PS Suite Microsoft Project SuperProject 5.0 SureTrak Project Manager 2.0 TurboProject Professional 2.0 CAN-PLAN (FREE) Project Management Software Rational Concepts Plan & Progress Tracker FastTrack Scheduler 5.02 Milestones, Etc. 5.0 Project Kickstart TodoManager 1.0 Visio Standard 5.0 ConceptDraw Source: http://www.startwright.com/project1.htm Gantt Charts for Project Scheduling A PERT Diagram does not provide a feel of total length of the the project or critical path (as well as slack times, etc.). A Gantt Chart is a graphical representation of a project that shows each task as a horizontal bar whose length is proportional to its time for completion. Gantt charts do not show how tasks must be ordered (precedence), but simply show when an activity should begin and when it should end.

An Example of Gantt Chart (for project scheduling) Source: http://www.smartdraw.com/tutorials/gantt/tips.htm Gantt Diagram: An Example Source: http://www.smartdraw.com/tutorials/gantt/tips.htm

Gantt Diagram: An Example Source: http://www.smartdraw.com/tutorials/gantt/tips.htm Example of Gantt Chart (in Microsoft Project Tool)

Examples of Useful Web Links Additional information is available on those web sites: http://www.infogoal.com/category.php?n=118&page=1&sort=&direction http://www.web-based-software.com/ http://www.4pm.com/repository.htm http://www.smartdraw.com/tutorials/gantt/tips.htm http://dev44692-01.sp03.fsu.edu/05_unit/05_note.html#fslack Homework Assignment CIS Project Management

CIS Project Management Additional Information CIS Project Manager: Leadership Skills (1) 1. Great communication skills Don't give orders; discuss things that are going to happen. Measure your success in terms of project getting done and the degree to which instructions are followed. Good communications fosters good morale; however, poor communications can bring mumbling and dissent. 2. Knowing and Using the Resources of the Team Correct planning and utilization of 1) team s analytical, technical, communication and management skills, and 2) available project s technical, financial and human resources.

CIS Project Manager: Leadership Skills (2) 3. Understanding Characteristics and Needs of the Team Each team member has certain strengths and weaknesses. Project manager must know advantages and disadvantages of each member of his/her team, and their analytical, technical, management, communication skills. When project manager understands individual needs of team member then everyone benefits it is a winwin situation. 4. Representing the Team At meetings of any level. 5. Setting the Example What you are speaks louder than what you say. PM will lose valuable influence if he/she does not follow established project rules, norms and standards 6. Thorough Planning of Project and Team Activities CIS Project Manager: Leadership Skills (3) 7. Controlling Project and Team Performance 8. Evaluating of project activities During and after each team activity, at the end of every day, every week and every project milestone 9. Sharing of Leadership (sharing of responsibilities) The secret is to share the leadership allowing everyone to join and share in the responsibility without giving up the role as a leader 10. Counseling Be careful not to give advice, instead ask questions to help the individual to arrive at his/her own solution to the problem. Feel free to give factual information, but cautious about giving advice.

CIS Project Manager: Personality Influence Ability to influence without having authority and obtaining win-win situations. Hope To hope for the best but prepare for the worst Motivation To manage, motivate and organize people Generosity Share the glory, share knowledge, and don't blame others Vision Understanding what needs to be done and how to get it done Flexibility Ability of changing to fit the situation for the good of the project Humor Seeing humor in events, laughing and going on Examples of Useful Web Links Additional information is available on those web sites: http://www.projectsmart.co.uk/skills.html http://www.woodbadge.org/boyscout/wblsskill.htm http://www.mariosalexandrou.com/glossary/team_roles_list.asp http://www.maxwideman.com/guests/servant/skills.htm http://www.mindtools.com/ http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/hqlibrary/ppm/ppm2.htm http://www.allpm.com/article.php?sid=1088&mode=thread&order=0

Variants of the PERT Diagrams Instead of using one estimate for activity duration, PERT Diagram also addresses uncertainty in the duration by using three time estimates. The optimistic time (OT) is the minimum time an activity could take under normal conditions. The most likely time (LT) is the normal time to complete the job. The pessimistic time (PT) is the maximum time an activity could take; it is the situation where bad luck is encountered at every step. Based on the Beta distribution, the mean or expected time (ET) and the variance (V) of each task can be computed. The mean is given by the formula (optimistic time + 4 x most likely time + pessimistic time) divided by 6, or: ET = (OT + 4LT + PT) / 6 The variance V is given by the formula ((optimistic time - pessimistic time) squared) divided by 36, or: V = ((OT PT)**2)/36 The expected time TE represents the point on the distribution where there is a 50-50 chance that the task will be completed earlier or later than it. Weaknesses of PERT Diagrams (Source: http://dev44692-01.sp03.fsu.edu/05_unit/05_note.html#fslack) PERT assumes that a project can be completely defined as a sequence of identifiable, independent tasks with known precedence relationships. It is often difficult to separate one task from the next, and the point of separation is more or less arbitrary. Precedence relationships are not always fixed. The start of one task may be contingent upon the outcome of an earlier one, which may need to be repeated. However, these criticisms are problems with any planning scheme, not just PERT. PERT also assumes that task times are independent and can be accurately estimated. This problem is compounded when the people planning the project and making the estimates are not the same as those who implement the plans. The assumption of independence is questionable -- tasks are not independent because one's gain is another's loss. Still empiric approach. Unless there is good historical data, the three time estimates are really three guesses; there is not much improvement over a single "best" guess in this case.