Getting Through: A Statewide Analysis of Time and Credits to Degree at West Virginia s Public Four-Year Institutions 38 th Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of Higher Education Neal Holly, Angela D. Bell, & Patrick Crane
Rationale for Research Time to completion studies are not new, but for West Virginia four-year system critically important Despite critiques of national-level completion agenda, West Virginia will need to transition a large portion of state workforce Develop relevant research to accompany launch of new five-year master plan initiative Focus efforts on the Success section of the master plan, where largest gains need to be made In the future, provide data and findings that can inform planning and initiatives at the institutional level
State Context Student success and completion in West Virginia is a matter of vital economic importance for the state Impact of Great Recession lags behind the rest of the nation Decline of coal production and chemical industry Important to grow middle-class as both a tax base and other societal benefits State leaders and stakeholders look to higher education to help stabilize and diversify the economy
Current Goal Increase degree completion by 20,000 by 2018 to address the projected skills gap in the workforce (Canevale, Smith, & Strohl, 2010) Center for Workforce projections triangulated with other commissioned forecasts More degrees, but also focused on healthcare, education, STEM, and management
Population Strategies and Issues Encourage students who have stopped-out to return Provide recruitment and outreach to new students (traditional and adult) Finally, helping students already enrolled to complete (study focus)
On-Time Completion Relevance On-time completion saves students, institutions, and state money Students enter the workforce faster, earning income and contributing to their local economy Reduced student debt means student will be less likely to default Institutions (and the state) can refocus resources elsewhere
Leading the Way: Access, Success, Impact Legislatively mandated Master Plan (2013-2018) 1.5 year planning process considered state economic objectives, institutional challenges, community outcomes, student needs Special emphasis on success through making it central to the plan Focus on student sub-populations Intermediate and completion measures
Role of Research in Leading the Way 2012-13 2013-14 2014-18
Master Plan as Model By using factors related to master plan metrics, what can we learn from completer behaviors What factors help completers finish on time? What factors increase time to completion? What organizational and student behaviors can institutions affect?
Master Plan as Model
Research Question At public, four-year institutions in West Virginia, what student background, academic preparation, college experience, and financial aid variables are associated with terms elapsed, terms enrolled, and credits earned on the way to completion of a bachelor s degree?
Data Sources and Sample Student-level data: West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission student record system from institution submissions Student background (demographics, academic preparation) Term-by-term enrollment information Financial aid types and amounts Graduation information Original sample: Fall 2004 first-time, bachelor s degree-seeking freshmen at West Virginia four-year public institutions who graduated by spring of 2012 (N= 4,924). Tracked each term for 8 years.
3 outcomes capturing different aspects of duration of studies: Terms elapsed until graduation (including summers) o Opportunity cost o Delayed returns Terms enrolled until graduation (including summers) o Direct costs /loans o Institution and state resources Credits earned at graduation (at system institutions) o Direct costs /loans o Institution and state resources o Funding of excess credits Outcome Variables
Operationalizing the Conceptual Model Student Background Academic Preparation College Experience Financial Aid Gender Composite ACT* Delayed Entry Institutional Aid** Underrepresented College Credits Major Area Cumulative Loans ** Minority Earned in HS Changed State Aid** Low-Income STEM Major Losing State Aid In-State Resident Education Major RBA Major Developmental Hours Transferred Enrolling 15 hours** Enrolling Summer** Simultaneous Enrollment** *Missing values (42) replaced with mean ** First model only first year, second model first 2 years.
Sample Characteristics Mean or % Mean or % Dependent Variables College Experience Terms until Graduation 13.2 Delayed College Entry 3.2% Terms Enrolled to Graduation 10.4 Major Area Changed 48.1% Credits Earned to Graduation 138.4 STEM Major 27.3% Background Characteristics Education Major 9.6% Female 53.4% RBA Major 3.3% Underrepresented Minority 4.8% Dev Education Hours Taken 0.9 In-State Resident 69.5% Transferred Institutions 10.7% Low-Income Students 25.4% 15 Hours Fall/ Spring 1st Year 72.3% Academic Preparation Enrolled Summer After First 24.4% Composite ACT 22.8 Year Attended Multiple Institutions 0.4% College Credits in HS 3.2 Financial First Year Aid Institutional Aid First Year $1,230 Cumulative Loans First Year $1,788 State Aid First Year $1,893 Lost State Aid 2nd Year 7.1%
Sample Characteristics
Models Run Ordinary Least Squares regression on relatively normally distributed continuous outcomes 2 models on each outcome, o First models enrollment and aid in student s first year o Second models enrollment and aid in student s first and second year
Findings: Background and Academic Prep Demographic Characteristics Female Underrepresented Minority In-State Resident Low-Income Students Academic Preparation Composite ACT College Credits Earned in HS Terms Elapsed Terms Enrolled Credits Earned
Findings: College Experience Terms Elapsed Terms Enrolled Credits Earned College Experience Delayed College Entry Major Area Didn't Change STEM Major Education Major RBA Major Developmental Education Hours Taken Transferred Institutions Enrolled 15 Hours Fall/Spring First Year/2 Years Enrolled Summer After First Year/First 2 Years Attended Multiple Institutions First Year/ 2 Years * * First year model only
Findings: Financial Aid Terms Elapsed Terms Enrolled Credits Earned Financial Aid Institutional Aid First Year/ 2 Years (1000s) Cumulative Loans First Year/ 2 Years (1000s) State Aid First Year/ 2 Years (1000s) State Aid Recipients Lost Award Second Year R 2 0.315 0.336 0.141
Role of Research in Leading the Way 2012-13 2013-14 2014-18
Policy and Practice Recommendations Finding From Study Changing major area increases time, terms, credits STEM and Education majors take longer Institutional Policies and Practices to Improve Timely Completion Include career and academic discipline exploration in early outreach; facilitate early major declaration and develop enrichment for undeclared students Align and compress curricular pathways RBA majors earn fewer credits Promote program to new and returning adults Develomental courses have disproportionate Minimize students entering courses through multi-faceted effect on time/terms to completion assessment and reform and streamline delivery methods Transfer students take longer, earn more credits Student taking 30 hours/year take less time Students losing state aid take longer Avoid transfer out through early intervention; minimize credit loss or duplication of incoming transfers Make 15 hours the default; counsel students on short-term vs. long-term and opportunity costs Collaborate between financial aid and academic side of house for early intervention to prevent loss; post-loss target for additional supports Target populations: male, low-income, underrepresented minority, and transfer students.
Next Steps and Research Implications Next steps include: o Apply HLM and path analysis o Similar analyses on retention, completion o System-wide and institution specific Findings themselves may not be able to be generalized, but framework and method are Model for using system research capacity to inform master planning development and implementation
Contact Info Neal Holly: nholly@hepc.wvnet.edu Angela Bell: abell@hepc.wvnet.edu West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission