City of Weyburn. Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Prepared By:

City of Weyburn Housing Need and Demand Assessment Prepared By:

Table of Contents Executive Summary Section 1: Development Determinants and Housing Affordability Guidelines... 3 The Housing Continuum & the Role of the Municipality... 5 Affordability among Key Demographic Groups... 7 Section 2: Community Profile... 11 Projected Population Growth... 12 Demographic Trends... 13 Labour Market Trends... 18 Economic Outlook... 21 Section 3: Community Development: Sustaining Growth with Appropriate Housing Supply... 24 Housing Market 1984 to 2004... 25 New Home Market 2000 to 2010... 26 Resale Market... 27 Rental Housing Market... 30 Neighbourhood Assessment... 31 Conclusion

Executive Summary The City of Weyburn contracted the Canadian Home Builders Association Saskatchewan to provide a Housing Need and Demand Assessment for the community as part of their efforts to guide appropriate community development and address challenges related to housing. Weyburn s population and economic growth potential have expanded rapidly in the past few years and this sudden expansion has put pressure on the housing and rental market. The Council s evaluation of the demographic changes in Weyburn is essential to providing a base for further planning and growth that efficiently meets the demands of a growing and prosperous community. Saskatchewan s communities have experienced rapid economic growth and population increases over the last few years as more industries invest in the province, providing employment opportunities and positive expectations for future prosperity. Many of these communities have experienced stagnant or decreasing population numbers in the years prior to the economic revival and as such, planning departments have not been prepared for the pressure economic growth places on infrastructure and housing. Communities like Weyburn no longer have available affordable housing and are racing to provide sufficient serviced lots to satisfy development needs. The result of decreased supply and increased demand in the market is a sudden and substantial increase in housing costs for houses of all varieties, ages and conditions. The number of suitable houses available to rent or purchase at modest prices has diminished, a situation that puts pressure on low to moderate income earners, students, seniors and others in need of affordable housing options. The lack of housing drives people out of communities and creates barriers to those interested in capitalizing on employment opportunities within communities. Without employees, businesses in growing communities suffer and economic activity decreases. As a mid-sized and growing city located in a region with prolific resource development potential, over the last five years, Weyburn has experienced the challenges related to sudden and substantive economic activity, including housing market shortages, increased housing costs, decreased vacancy rates and increased rental rates. In 2003, Weyburn s City Council commissioned a development plan for the community in order to guide their efforts to increase housing capacity, revitalize business inside the Central Business District and provide an attractive and vibrant community for residents, visitors and migrants coming to the City. The Weyburn Housing Need and Demand Assessment can provide a foundation of information from which to develop a housing plan that can assist the city to overcome its recent housing challenges. This assessment should provide a comprehensive perspective of how the housing market has evolved and provide projections on future changes and the impact these may have on housing. The information provided is an overview of current population and labour market research set in the context of a decade of growth and change. Any housing plan developed by the City needs to accommodate future changes and to this end, Council and administrators need to conduct continuous re-evaluations of any housing plan developed to determine if it is meeting demand. 2

Section 1: Development Determinants and Housing Affordability Guidelines Overview Efficient and effective community development and planning is essential to ensure that economic and population growth can be accommodated in a community while any associated pressures placed on housing availability and affordability are minimized. In order for City Planners to encourage development of appropriate housing types to meet demand, a standard framework within which various housing needs are defined and connected to characteristics of different demographic groups is helpful. Each community has a unique demographic profile and in order to relate this profile to housing consistently, standard development determinants are used for comparison. It is crucial for communities to study both the demographics of the community and the current housing stock in order to get a more comprehensive view of housing need and how best to help builders and developers address shortages. The Need and Demand Assessment for Weyburn provides information on current guidelines for housing affordability, perspective on how housing stock impacts on the overall economy and an overview of how housing stock is meeting demand and what housing options need more development focus. In order to capitalize on the opportunities presented by economic renewal in the region, Weyburn needs to provide an attractive environment to those who will participate in economic growth, raise families and contribute to a healthy, diverse and vibrant community. This section of the assessment will provide information on how demographics and housing supply are connected and on the factors that contribute to increased demand for different levels of housing. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation provides definitions for terms commonly used in housing assessment and guidelines to assess how different levels of housing affordability apply to various community demographic profiles. These and other guidelines outlined in this section can assist city planners in understanding housing in their communities. Understanding nationally standardized criteria for housing and affordability analysis is essential for establishing a framework within which communities can address their unique housing challenges. 3

Affordability Determinants Municipalities can play a role in guiding development within the community and surrounding areas. Provided that elected officials and administration understand how housing impacts economic stability and future growth, municipalities can plan to accommodate, support and encourage growth through various housing policies, incentives and programs. Changing demographics and population increases also require municipalities and housing stakeholders to consider the affordability and suitability of available housing options in their community. The following are a few important reference terms defined by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and Statistics Canada that associations and housing organizations use to compare housing in different regions and municipalities. Average Shelter Costs: Average shelter costs refer to the total monthly shelter cost paid by the household for their dwelling. 1 For renters, these costs include rent and payments for utilities and other municipal services; for owners, these costs include mortgage payments, taxes, condominium fees and payments for utilities or other municipal services. 2 It is important to note that shelter costs refer to all costs associated with owning or renting housing and not just the per month rent or mortgage payments. According to CMHC guidelines, average shelter costs should not exceed 30 percent of total before-tax household income. The Shelter-Cost-to-Income Ratio (STIR) is the proportion of total before tax income spent on shelter and is calculated for each household by dividing total annual housing costs by total annual income. 3 Those communities where the overall average STIR is higher than 30 percent are considered to be less affordable. The average STIR and average affordability ratings (discussed in Section 3) are important benchmarks to evaluate community cost of living. Low Income Cut-offs: Statistics Canada established income thresholds for Canadian communities, based on their size, beneath which families are expected to devote a larger share of their income in order to provide for necessities such as housing, food and clothing. 4 Low income cut-off (LICO) calculations are estimated based on income thresholds at which families are expected to spend 20 percentage points or more on basic necessities. 5 According to Statistics Canada, those earning below the LICO are not considered to be in poverty, but because more of the household income is devoted to non-discretionary spending, they are considered to be living in straitened circumstances. 6 Housing Standards: CMHC has established standards for housing in relation to specific criteria. Acceptable housing is housing that is adequate in condition, suitable in size, and affordable relative to what is required by the resident in terms of family size and average income. 7 Adequate housing is housing that does not require any major repairs, according to residents ; 4

suitable housing is housing that has enough bedrooms to accommodate the size of resident households, as outlined by National Occupancy Standard requirements; and affordable housing is housing that costs less than 30% of before-tax household income. 8 Should housing fall below the standard set in these criteria, it may be deemed unacceptable for the resident. The Housing Continuum & the Role of the Municipality The housing continuum, as described by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, includes all housing options on a scale from social housing (which incorporates emergency and transitional shelter and subsidized housing) to market housing (which includes market rental housing and market priced ownership housing). 9 The value of market priced new, resale and rental housing is linked to the public s buying power, which in turn has an impact on the type of housing built by builders and developers in response to community demands. Without an adequate supply of housing at various price points, housing affordability for residents is adversely affected by population increases, particularly at the low to moderate price points. When housing supply is constrained, population growth will typically result in a surge in the need for affordable housing at two thresholds: first, the point at which the population increase occurs (demand-side pressure); and second, following the subsequent price increases in the housing market (supply-side pressure). Housing stakeholders and community planners should be engaged to ensure that sufficient housing is supplied so that current and potential residents remain in the community and have an opportunity to move up the housing continuum. The Housing Continuum Housing Continuum $0 $45,000 $52,000 $70,000 Social Housing Affordable Housing Entry-Level Housing Market Housing 5

Social Housing Social housing covers a wide variety of housing types and needs, all of which help those struggling to afford adequate housing. The intended market for social housing ranges from those in need of basic shelter and crisis housing to those in need of supported living housing options, such as low income households and persons with long term disabilities or addictions. Affordable Housing Affordable housing can be provided in various forms through a number of different support initiatives; however, any housing provided for this category must be attainable for those with incomes below the provincially established Maximum Income Limits (MIL) and the cost of units (whether rental or ownership) cannot exceed 30 percent of the household s annual income. Affordable housing may include supported or subsidized rental or ownership developments that are owned and/or managed by government, non-government organizations, community-based and/or faith-based groups, or private corporations. Often these units have received capital funding, land contributions, or other support from various levels of government. Government assistance has helped many of these housing providers maintain affordability despite fluctuating housing market prices. Developments that receive funding typically must remain affordable for a period of 10 to 15 years. Entry-Level Housing Entry-level housing includes units appropriate and attainable to first time home buyers and new entrants to the work force and generally attracts those individuals and families that earn a moderate income. Most entry-level housing is modest in size and located in neighborhoods with higher densities. The entry-level housing market facilitates ownership; however, entry-level rentals are also important within a community to accommodate those moderate income individuals and families not in a position to become homeowners. The typical housing types for new entry-level products are higher density dwellings, such as townhomes and condominiums, where costs are reduced because less land is required per unit. Market-Priced Housing Market housing includes housing of all types that can accommodate the demand for units among medium and high income earners on the open market. Most of these homes are purchased by higher income earners, and may be individuals, couples or families. Market housing comes in all forms including single-detached, semi-detached, townhouse and luxury condominiums. In many communities, builders and developers tend to focus their efforts on meeting the demand for units within this category due to the higher profit margins associated with selling market housing. Market housing, especially in new developments, provides greater returns to the city in return for expenses paid for lot servicing. 6

Affordability among Key Demographic Groups This section is intended to highlight some of the demographic groups that are characteristically noted to have differing housing needs based on their income or age. Some groups generally require one type of housing, such as affordable or entry-level, while other groups require various options or are transitioning from one level of the housing continuum to another. Seniors Retired seniors living on a fixed income are more susceptible to even slight price fluctuations. According to Service Canada, a single person with no other income can receive up to $1,185.92 a month from Canada Pension and Old Age Security, 30 percent of which is $355 per month. Those seniors who choose to move from owner-occupied single family residences to higher density housing with supports and services and fewer maintenance responsibilities need affordable rental and ownership options. Ideally, designated seniors housing or retirement communities will be located near hospitals, public transit and shopping centers in areas that are safe and encourage active community involvement. It should also be noted that many seniors today are healthier and more active upon retirement than has been the case in the past. Though they may wish to downsize, they may not yet require access to supports and services offered by assisted living seniors residences. Options are necessary to accommodate these seniors as well, including gated townhouse communities or condominiums. Depending on the level of savings and retirement income, seniors need access to various levels of housing on the continuum. Those in need of affordable housing options are usually more vulnerable to shortages. Students Where post-secondary educational institutions exist, so too does the need for appropriate affordable housing options for students. Appropriate options include student residences (owned and operated by educational institutions), secondary suites within existing dwelling units, and room and board or rent sharing single dwelling units or apartments. It should be noted that student housing is rarely occupied as permanent housing : the average degree or certificate program requires four or fewer years to complete, therefore, there will be a high turnover rate among student housing. Ideally, student housing options should be located near their educational institution and be relatively accessible to amenities such as grocery stores and retail areas as well as entertainment and employment options. Student housing that is situated in close proximity to educational facilities allows for ease of access to the campus and reduces the need to rely on private transportation to and from school. Students generally require affordable housing options. 7

New Entrants to the Workforce As new workers gain experience, their incomes typically increase as well. New entrants to the workforce require access to entry-level and affordable housing options that provide them with stability and permanency, allowing them to increase their earnings and move upwards on the housing continuum. There is a strong demand for housing among new workers that both meets their needs and allows them to gain a foothold in the housing market, whether by increasing their equity through homeownership or renting units that allow for a savings margin. With an estimated entry-level annual income of $25,000 to $35,000, the most these new entrants to the workforce should spend on housing and housing related costs is $625 to $800 per month (based on the 30 percent affordability threshold). On the housing continuum, these new workers fall under the affordable housing category. Low Income Categories In 2009, the Low Income Cut-off (LICO) in Weyburn for a household with two people was $21,672 after taxes. 10 This income group falls within the social housing or affordable housing category on the housing continuum and could afford to pay no more than $540 per month on housing and housing related costs. There are three main demographic groups that are most likely to be disproportionately represented in the LICO categories: families, Aboriginal and Métis persons, and new immigrants. Families: Statistics Canada data from 2006 indicates that out of 4,050 households in Weyburn, 610 reported annual incomes under $20,000, well within range of the LICO threshold. 11 In order to meet the recommended shelter cost-to-income ratio, this income category should spend no more than $500 per month on housing. However, families typically require more bedrooms for children and room for growth as their children get older, as well as proximity to amenities such as schools and grocery stores. Immigrants: Immigrant newcomers often earn under the LICO, but also require different services in order to assist them integrate into the community and to increase their earning potential. International immigrants may experience a number of barriers when attempting to access good jobs that can support them and allow them access to appropriate housing. This is reflected in higher percentages of new immigrants that have to pay over 30 percent of household income on housing. New immigrants need housing that is affordable to low income earners but that are suitable for larger families. Higher household densities may be the result of larger families, but may also result from attempts to reduce costs of living by residing with multiple or extended families. High household densities are not the solution to housing shortages or to the gap between income and cost of housing: more 8

needs to be done to increase the number of appropriate housing options for new immigrants. Aboriginals and Métis: Aboriginal demographics have similar household characteristics to immigrant households, with higher household densities and extended families living in one dwelling. Aboriginals characteristically need larger houses because of larger families but are also disproportionately represented in lower paid professions. While susceptible to the same disadvantages as immigrants, Aboriginals are fast becoming a recognized source of labour potential which increases the likelihood that more Aboriginal people will move to larger communities to take advantage of work opportunities. Affordable housing of adequate size is required to allow Aboriginals to settle permanently in these larger centers so that they may move up on the housing continuum. Young Professionals & Middle Income Earners Young professionals are typically recent entrants to the workforce. Often first-time home buyers, this group may be employed in careers with upward earning potential and have expanding household sizes. As their careers become more established, the likelihood that their entry-level housing will be upgraded to market priced housing increases. Intended as the first step into the housing market, entry-level housing may include mid-priced and medium density condominiums, townhouses and smaller and older resale homes in established neighbourhoods. These units are generally more affordable for new buyers that can only handle a modest down payment and wish to enter the housing market. Families with a combined household income close to the median income in Weyburn (around $50,000) are considered to be moderate income families. These households can afford to buy a house given a mortgage payment (and other household related expenses) of approximately $1,150 per month. For moderate income families, suitable housing means appropriate space for the size of family with no major repairs needed that would push them over the 30 percent affordability threshold in the long term. For a household with a $3,700 per month combined income, assuming approximately $100 per month in property tax and a down payment of $10,000, an attainable mortgage would be within the $200,000 range. 9

High Income Earners and Established Professionals Market priced houses are sold to the highest bidders on the open real estate market or rented to tenants able to afford rents set according to demand. These units include housing in new developments, existing resale homes, condominiums and townhouses and any rental units outside the range possible for other lower income categories. Due to increased demand, market housing in Weyburn is now priced to suit income demographics earning over $70,000 per year. Established professionals and high income earners are most able to buy what is provided by this level of the market. It should be noted that the value of market priced housing and rentals in relation to average income in a community is an excellent indicator of how current housing supply is able to meet demand. Sudden, unexpected or overwhelming increases in price may indicate serious shortages in the amount and quality of market housing provided. New market housing subdivisions are an essential component of a healthy community tax base. New houses and new developments contribute substantial tax revenue to the municipality which, when coupled with appropriate pricing for serviced lots, can help pay for more services and subsidize or support housing initiatives to meet demands for those in search of housing lower on the housing continuum. 10

Section 2: Community Profile Overview Part of the research conducted by the Association for this assessment is focused on population and income demographic changes as related to housing, as well as industry and labour market developments that contribute to housing challenges. Population data shows that Weyburn has grown significantly over very few years following a prolonged period of population stagnation or even contraction. Labour market research shows that the mining, oil and gas industries are top employers in the region and that these industries, as well as construction and trade based companies are continually searching for skilled employees to fill labour shortages in their expanding businesses. New population and labour market trends have put increased pressure on the current housing available in Weyburn and this pressure is not likely to ease in the near future. This section provides analysis of demographic and labour market trends for the province, the region and for the City of Weyburn. The demographic and labour force profiles for the community are connected to housing affordability statistics and to development determinants which provide explanations of how age, income and employment impact on housing supply and demand. In order to provide a relevant assessment of housing stock, knowledge of community composition and projections regarding future demographic shifts must be analyzed so that housing market statistics are put into context. Establishing a context within which demographic changes can be charted and explained is an essential step when building a useful Housing Business Plan. Accurate demographic predictions are great assets that ensure appropriate housing varieties are provided to strengthen a community and assist continued economic growth. 11

Projected Population Growth Saskatchewan s population is on the rise and many mid-sized communities in the province are experiencing growth at percentages equal to or greater than the provincial average. For the past decade, Weyburn s population accounted for around one percent of the provincial total and this has increased only slightly to 1.1 percent in 2010. However, because Saskatchewan s overall population is on an upward trend, even this small percentage could mean a large population increase for Weyburn. The Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce predicts that Saskatchewan s population could reach 1.5 million by 2030 and if Weyburn continues to hold a steady 1.1 percent of total population, the city could reach a population of 16,500 by 2025. 12 This projection is a conservative estimate in relation to possible population growth projections for Weyburn because regions with resource-based industries are attracting more workers than the average. At less conservative, but still mid-level projections, Weyburn s growth statistics indicate that the community could reach 22,000 people by 2025. According to Saskatchewan Health Coverage data, the population of Weyburn in 2010 was 11,782, which is an 18 percent increase over the 2006, when then population was 9,962. 13 Estimates based on the average increase of 3.8 percent per year (18 percent over four years) puts the City s population at 22,000 by 2025. The highest estimates, those based on the average of the percentage increases over the last four years, (5.65 percent per year) could see the population rise as high as 26,000 by 2025. These estimates are based on continual growth at the pace seen in the last four years and do not take into account any economic downturns or increases that could impact on population migration to the region. However, even by modest population growth, Weyburn could need 3,900 new housing units in the next 15 years, based on a 2.5 persons per house calculation. Weyburn is strategically located near major oil development areas and as more companies are drawn into the region, both permanent resident and temporary labourer populations will increase. Because there are some workers coming to the area on a temporary basis, actual population numbers may be different from the number of people looking for services and housing in Weyburn; therefore, calculations on population increase from the Saskatchewan Health Information Network statistics do not necessarily reflect the actual increase in need. Any housing need assessment done on the basis of Saskatchewan Health Coverage data is necessarily conservative rather than comprehensive. Additionally, the City is encouraging national and international interest in industrial and resource development in the area, which may result in more in-migration and further need for all types of housing, from homeownership to rental. 12

Demographic Trends Population growth trends are directly related to the economic performance within a province, region and municipality. In general, there are greater incentives for talented individuals to reside within a community where there are varied career opportunities. Therefore, the demographics of a community can be attributed to the education, employment and business opportunities that exist. However, without access to affordable, appropriate and adequate housing options, individuals and families are discouraged or even restricted from settling into a community regardless of opportunities available to them. Employment and career options in Weyburn are increasing, but the City s growth is currently being hampered by a limited supply and variety of housing stock. To maintain the current and projected growth of Weyburn s economy, an appropriate supply of adequate and attainable housing options is required to meet the community s needs. Demographics by Age While population statistics give an overall perspective of general need and opportunity in a municipality, the age breakdown of a community is also an important indicator of income and employment trends which are closely related to the need for different varieties of housing. There are different demographic groups that can be generally classified according to age: the demographic aged 20 to 24 years is most likely to be students and new workers earning less; those aged between 25 and 45 years are the young professionals and comprise a community s working core; those aged 45 to 55 comprise a unique sector, nearing retirement but still employed and less likely to have young, dependent children; those 55 and older comprise the senior population who work less and become more dependent on services provided for seniors as they age. Community demographics can also give a perspective on the number of smaller and school age children, which indicate the need for schools and parks in certain neighbourhoods and the number of families that comprise Weyburn s community. Students and New Entrants to the Workforce In 2010, Weyburn s 20 to 24 year old demographic was the third largest, with 818 people, up 26 percent from 2002. This demographic is most often comprised of post-secondary students and new entrants to the workforce and are in need of affordable rental units and smaller, entry-level owner-occupied homes. There is no designated housing available for students attending the Weyburn campus of the Southeast Regional College; therefore, students need to look in the community for affordable suites, especially shared accommodation and basement suites. In February, 2011, the provincial government announced $1.63 million in funding for expansion of the Southeast Regional College Weyburn Campus, which will add 86 percent more space and 13

more programs. 14 The program expansion occurs at an optimal time, when demand for skilled labour is high in the region; however, the program expansion will also bring in more people who are looking for suitable rental units in proximity to the school, that are affordable for a student budget and available for the duration of various programs as required. The current rental market in Weyburn is unable to accommodate those seeking affordable rental units unless supply is increased. New entrants to the workforce are finding opportunities to work in and around Weyburn, as indicated in the rise in the 20 to 24 year old category. According to Saskatchewan labour statistics, the number of 19 to 24 year olds in the labour force has increased since 2006 and the unemployment rate of this young demographic has dropped from 11.3 percent to 8.6 percent. 15 These new workers are typically employed in entry-level positions and therefore earn less than young professionals; these lower income earners are often in search of rental accommodation that will allow them to become established and potentially become homeowners. New workers are in demand in Weyburn, but many have difficulty finding available rental units at any price range or size. Businesses in the Weyburn area recruit young workers from other communities or provinces, but if there is no affordable housing available, many may leave for other communities where there are both work opportunities and adequate housing. Young Professionals The population demographic aged 25 to 45 is categorized as young professionals, typically with higher average household incomes and younger family members. If this demographic believes Weyburn provides both economic opportunities and desirable housing, they will be more likely to move to and settle in the City. Statistics show that between 2006 and 2010, population in this demographic increased 20 percent in Weyburn and it is the second largest demographic group in the community with 25 percent of total population. 16 Because this demographic comprises the working core of a community, a large percentage of young professionals indicates economic strength and low unemployment rates. Young professionals are typically skilled, educated and more experienced members of the workforce, often with middle to high middle income earning potential and higher household densities who are often able to purchase market priced housing that is available to moderate income earners. 17 Typical housing demand in this growing demographic group includes larger, entry-level, single family homes or rental units, based on their positive income earning potential and growing families, demand which developers can meet if given the opportunity to build. Currently, Weyburn intends to expand the number of serviced lots provided for new development: this trend needs to continue and increase if more young professionals and families are to be enticed to stay. As a group, young families are essential to active, vibrant and healthy communities and, as such, development of housing options for this demographic is important. Frequently, young professionals with young families are in search of starter homes which require a modest down 14

payment but that also provide security, are accessible to schools, parks and other amenities and do not require major renovations. Saskatchewan Health Population data indicates that population numbers for those aged under 14 years has risen 10 percent since 2006, with increased population in all age groups, from pre-k and school age children to junior high school students. 18 Based on these numbers, it can be assumed that families are moving to Weyburn or that young professionals have decided to permanently settle in Weyburn and start families. In order for these trends to continue, entry-level housing options provided close to schools should be encouraged. Seniors Seniors are a growing demographic in Canada and have also traditionally accounted for 25 percent of Saskatchewan s population. Those aged 65 years and older make up approximately 18 percent of Weyburn s total population, an increase of 10 percent since 2002. 19 Many retired seniors have unique housing needs due to their fixed-income situation and frequently decide to downsize from single family dwellings to smaller, more manageable units. Often, retirees look to downsize and sell their single-family homes in exchange for condominiums or senior designated residences with varying levels of support services. For seniors without retirement savings, selling a single-family dwelling and downsizing to more affordable, multiple family housing is an option to increase their retirement income. However, without affordable units available to move into, more seniors may have to keep their homes until later in life. According to the Weyburn Housing Authority, which runs 197 senior housing units in the community, there is a five to six month wait for seniors social housing, which is available for seniors with income below a certain threshold. 20 These wait times may cause seniors to remain in their current housing which reduces the potential that more single family dwellings could become available for sale or rent. Although there is currently no urgent need to house a large demographic of retired seniors, the age demographic between 45 and 60 years comprises 20 percent of the population, who, over the next five to 10 years may decide to retire in the area. Long term planning for provision of seniors residences and services needs to incorporate these upcoming demographic shifts. Immigration and Provincial In-Migration Trends Statistics on immigrant population in Weyburn indicate that only a small percentage of the total provincial immigrant population lives in Weyburn. As of 2006, immigrants in Weyburn made up approximately 0.8 percent of Saskatchewan s total immigrant population and comprised 4.1 percent of Weyburn s total population. 21 The total percentage of immigrants in Weyburn actually declined from five percent in 1991; however, due to the labour shortage associated with increased industrial and mining activity in the region, more businesses are recruiting outside the province 15

and the country to find skilled labourers. Depending on the culture in their country of origin, immigrants often have unique household situations which include higher household densities and extended family arrangements. Upon arrival in Canada, immigrants generally begin employment in lower paid professions and live in higher density households in order to mitigate high housing costs. Settling into a new country is not an easy task and some will require additional support to locate housing as a first step to familiarizing them to their new country. This housing typically must be affordable or entry-level, large enough to accommodate extended families and with clear guidelines for home procurement and ownership. Cities that assist migrants in finding housing and appropriate employment are in a better position to encourage their effective integration and assist newcomers to access resources and economic opportunities in the community. Aboriginal Population Trends The population growth of Aboriginal people has steadily increased within Canada s urban centers over the past decade due to urban migration patterns. Saskatchewan and Manitoba currently share the largest proportion of Aboriginal population in the country and more Aboriginals are now living in and around urban municipalities. 22 According to the 2006 census, Weyburn has traditionally maintained around 0.2 percent of Saskatchewan s overall Aboriginal population, but these numbers are slowly on the rise. 23 The Aboriginal population comprises one of the largest, youngest and fastest growing demographic groups in Canada and is currently an untapped labour force with a great deal of potential. Municipalities that offer employment opportunities could see future increases in Aboriginal migration into their communities, which will present community planners with unique housing challenges. The Aboriginal community is characteristically comprised of a large demographic of 15 to 24 year olds and they frequently have larger families due to higher birthrates. 24 Aboriginal households also tend to have higher household densities than non-aboriginals, with approximately 3.6 persons per household compared to the 2.5 persons per household average for the rest of Canada. 25 In addition, the education gap between Aboriginals and non-aboriginals means a disproportionate number of Aboriginals are employed in the five lowest paying industries, meaning less income is available to devote to housing. In 2006, 21 percent of the Aboriginal population in Weyburn was aged 15 to 24, with 28 percent aged 25 to 34, meaning that almost half of the population is under the age of 40. 26 Out of the total Aboriginal population over the age of fifteen, the median earnings are $22,963 annually and 53 percent have no post-secondary education. 27 These discrepancies in age and education mean that their housing needs often fall in the affordable or assisted category on the housing continuum, but their options also need to include larger single family homes and rental units in order to prevent the tendency towards overcrowding. 16

Demographics by Income An assessment of current income and demographic data for Weyburn is essential to produce a viable housing strategy that addresses the needs of all residents in the community. Having adequate income to cover essential costs of living and secure appropriate housing is vital to attaining a higher quality of life. Age is also an essential factor when considering income in a community because each demographic characteristically has unique earning potential. As mentioned earlier, the young professional category comprises the working core of a community; therefore, this age demographic normally has increasing earning potential as they spend more time in the workforce. Conversely, seniors and students are most likely to have fixed incomes and be more sensitive to increases in the cost of housing, although students have the potential for increased earnings in the future whereas seniors likely do not. The Low Income Cut-off (LICO) for an individual in Weyburn is $17,409; for a double-income household, the cutoff is $21,672. 28 The cost of available housing will have a greater impact on those earning less than $50,000: Weyburn s current housing options mean that even those earning twice the LICO level are less likely to attain suitable housing without experiencing financial hardship. The average household income is rising, both provincially and in the City of Weyburn. Statistics Canada census data for 2005 indicates that the provincial median annual earnings for a full-time employed person over the age of 15 was $35,948, and the household average income for the province in the same year was $46,705; comparatively, Weyburn in 2005 reported an individual median income of $38,975 and a household median income of $49,793 29 The income estimate for households in Weyburn for 2010 is $75,428, compared to the provincial median estimate of $68,682 for the same year. 30 The income breakdown from Statistics Canada for 2006 for individual income brackets indicates that the largest demographic earns over $70,000 annually; in the same year, only 610 households earned under $20,000 per year and almost 60 percent of households in Weyburn earned over $40,000 annually. 31 According to the income guidelines for division of housing options on the housing continuum, the majority of Weyburn residents earned enough in 2006 to afford entry-level housing with a large proportion of residents able to access market housing if it is made available. Currently, Weyburn has few options available for those in need of entry-level priced housing and rentals which, despite increased average earnings, still constitute a substantial portion of the population. 17

Labour Market Trends Labour force trends and shifts in available employment are essential factors contributing to the age and income demographics of people who are attracted to particular urban centers. Therefore, labour needs, as well as employment and education opportunities associated with economic performance in the Weyburn region, are linked to new demand patterns for housing. Different income levels associated with various employment opportunities also have an impact on housing need and demand. For this reason, an assessment of the labour force is required to provide a better understanding of why Weyburn s housing requirements have changed and may continue to change. The labour force and corresponding opportunities for employment in a community are essential components to constructing a housing plan that incorporates all housing varieties that community requires to meet need based on income level, earning potential and employment projections. Provincial Labour Force Trends Increased economic activity and investment in Saskatchewan has generated demand for employees which in turn has driven the population increase and put pressure on the housing market across the province. The severe labour shortages in skilled trades of 2008 eased slightly for 2009 as supply increased and competition for skilled labour from Alberta decreased. 32 Large infrastructure projects and construction demand in major urban centers has kept demand for skilled workers high, which pushes up wages and creates competition between communities to attract and keep skilled labourers. 33 Statistics from 2009 show that 29 trades, 80 percent of total trades, experienced labour shortages and eight of these industries reported severe shortages, meaning that local and adjacent markets had no qualified workers and recruitment efforts were hampered by extreme competition from other provincial markets. 34 Predictions for 2012 indicate that shortages will worsen as Saskatchewan s economy recovers from a brief slowdown during the recession and regains momentum, although the severe shortages of 2008 are not expected to recur. 35 18

Saskatchewan expects to have 77,000 employment opportunities open from 2009 to 2014, 30 percent of which will be new jobs and 70 percent of which will come through attrition from retirement. 36 These positions can partially be filled by current residents, but these opportunities will draw in new residents from the rest of Canada and internationally. These new residents will need housing to suit their need, whether they are in search of rental units that provide stability in their transition to the province or in search of their first homes to settle in with their families. Many communities are experiencing housing shortages due to increased in-migration to regions with high economic activity and low unemployment rates; in order to remain competitive, those communities in need of workers must provide an environment that encourages employees to become permanent residents. Employers seeking skilled workers are concerned that current housing shortages will hamper recruitment efforts because new immigrants may be faced with greater difficulties securing adequate housing and have fewer options if adequate housing cannot be found immediately upon their arrival. Communities that ensure available housing options meet the demand of projected labour force increases will be in the best position to permanently retain the new workforce and leverage the growing economic base to build their communities. Regional Labour Market Trends Regional disparities in the supply of skilled workers have become more pronounced and those economic regions with extensive resource-based industry are most likely to experience severe labour shortages. The southeast region, with its extensive oil field, coal mines and trade activity, did not see a significant lessening of severe labour market shortages in 2009 as did other regions. The disparity between the regions was pronounced in this period: data shows a 47 percentage point difference between regions with the most shortages and those with the least in 2009; this difference was only 20 percentage points in 2008. 37 In 2009, only Moose Jaw and the Southeast Enterprise Region saw shortages in at least 90 percent of trades, whereas in 2008, half the regions saw the same level of shortages. 38 Based on these trends, the southeast region can likely predict continued strong demand for skilled labour and may experience further shortages that could affect development and investment; recruitment efforts have increased and continue to do so, therefore housing development must continue to increase. 19

Local Labour Market Trends As mentioned previously, Weyburn s economic region has experienced, and may continue to experience, severe labour shortages, which means that the City of Weyburn will have intense competition to maintain a local labour force. Currently, construction companies and local businesses operating in Weyburn are recruiting new employees from across the province, nationally and internationally in order to meet demand for service. However, between opportunities to work in the oil industry and the lack of rental units and appropriate and affordable housing in the City, new recruits are often unwilling or unable to stay and work in the City. In order to ensure a vibrant and growing population, Weyburn needs to offer housing options in all housing markets, but especially entry-level options and increased rental units of all varieties. These market priced rentals and entry-level homes and rental units are necessary to encourage new residents to come to Weyburn and establish a permanent connection to the City. Weyburn has a large demographic of 45 to 55 year olds that may be preparing to retire within the next five to 10 years. This shift will present challenges and opportunities for Weyburn and the City will have to leverage the resources necessary to address rapid demographic shifts and labour market changes. Fortunately, Weyburn also has a large demographic of 20-to-29 year olds from which industry can pull a sustainable labour force at the start of their careers. By ensuring that housing options are such that this demographic remains large and increases, more labourers from this demographic will be enticed to move to Weyburn and become established and grow the city s economy. The trend towards retirement in the next five to 10 years may be offset by new workers recruited from other communities and provinces and if the City of Weyburn is able to offer affordable entry-level homes and rentals, they may gain a competitive edge to the advantage of businesses that recruit outside the community. The Southeast Economic Region continued to experience severe labour shortages even as shortages eased generally across the province. The employment opportunities in the region offer a competitive advantage, but new workers need houses to take advantage of Weyburn s strong economic future. Weyburn needs to leverage opportunities today to build a better community for tomorrow. 20

Economic Outlook Provincial Trends Saskatchewan is in a strong economic position with an expanding labour force due to population growth and, despite a small downturn in 2009 due to the recession, is rebounding with strong employment figures and an overall competitive advantage in many major industries. Saskatchewan had a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.7 percent for February, the second lowest rate in Canada and below the national rate of 7.8 percent. 39 Positive growth projections for the province have created a strong environment to attract national and international investment, especially in resource sectors, which will impact directly and indirectly on related business, including the residential construction industry. For five years prior to 2009, the construction industry and the resource sector together were responsible for 12 percent of the increased employment in the province and the outlook is positive that both industries will continue to grow. 40 The major industries in Saskatchewan driving economic expansion are involved in resource extraction (predominantly oil and gas in the southeast region), construction, including residential, commercial and industrial building, and trade in the service sector. 41 According to the Government of Saskatchewan, consistent and continuing growth will occur over the next five years, with an expected employment increase of 22,800 employees and an average overall growth rate of 0.9 percent. 42 Most industries are expected to expand in the next few years, with more opportunities offered in the previously mentioned economically powerful sectors of trade, transportation, mining, oil and gas. 43 For the oil-rich southeast region, this positive projection means opportunities to build communities that will thrive into the future. The Saskatchewan South East Enterprise Region (SSEER) compiled data on the contribution of the resource industry to provincial revenues and economic activity. According to SSEER s research, oil and gas production brought $1.4 billion into Saskatchewan s revenue stream, with companies investing $2 billion annually and employing 35,000 people, directly or indirectly, in their operations. 44 Mining is Saskatchewan s third largest industry and employs 25,000 people directly and indirectly and provides an average salary of $58,564. 45 Higher wages offered in the resource industry have both positive and negative impacts on housing in the province as it can produce a wider divide between the cost of market priced housing and the amount that a homeowner or renter earning closer to average wages can afford. As such, it is important for communities to incorporate options for low and moderate income earners into development plans in order to ensure that suitable housing is available at all income levels. 21

Regional Trends The Southeast Enterprise Region has seen unprecedented growth over the last few years due mainly to oil and gas exploration and economic growth projections are based heavily on current and future investment in the Bakken Oil Field. According to the South East Enterprise Region, 497 businesses in the region were directly or indirectly involved in the oil industry, in 2009 and this activity accounted for $553 million of the $1.4 billion in provincial revenue generated from oil and gas investment. 46 The Bakken Oil Play in the Weyburn area is one of the largest projects currently under development by Cenovus, an Alberta based energy company, and their projections for its continued productivity are strong. According to Cenovus s estimates, the Bakken Oil Play contains approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil, making it one of the largest medium-sour crude oil sites in Canada, and it is producing an estimated 15,000 barrels of oil per day. 47 The Bakken Oil Play has produced for 50 years and new technologies are expanding possibilities for more efficient extraction methods, meaning the Bakken Play could produce for decades more. Weyburn is also the site of a major new innovation, the CO 2 Sequestration Project, which was developed to research new carbon sequestration technologies for future use. 48 Although oil and gas is considered the largest economic driver in the region, agriculture and related industries continue to add substantially to the region s economic production. The southeast region maintains agricultural revenues higher than the provincial average, especially in cereal crop production, and overall farm capital is 14 percent higher than the provincial average. Statistics Canada s 2006 census data for cereal crop production compiled by the South East Enterprise Region indicates that the southeast region yields six percent of Saskatchewan s total grain production, with average farm capital and average size in acres both higher than the provincial average. 49 The Weyburn Inland Terminal has recently expanded their handling and shipping capacity and has also acquired a majority interest the NorAmera BioEnergy Corporation, an ethanol production facility. 50 In 2009, agriculture and related industries such as the Weyburn Inland Terminal employed 7,300 people in the region, a number that has steadily increased since 2001. 51 Local Trends Weyburn is one of only two mid-sized urban centers in an economic region with a population of over 40,000 and, as such, acts as a business and retail hub for the surrounding rural municipality and smaller communities in the area. Because the headquarters of the Sun Country Health Region is located in Weyburn, occupations in health and social assistance comprise a substantial percentage of the working population, either in administration or in one of the five special health care facilities in the City or at the Weyburn General Hospital. 52 The Government of Saskatchewan recently announced a new funding structure for health service infrastructure development which provides 80 percent of funding for construction of new projects. 53 This new funding structure 22

may mean that Weyburn can begin construction on a new hospital which, when it occurs, will generate new jobs for the community. Weyburn also has 10 different schools for elementary and secondary education which makes the school district the second largest employer in the City. 54 The construction industry, both residential and commercial, is also a large employer in the city, due to record construction activity in the last five to 10 years. In 2009, commercial building construction totaled over $5 million; in 2010, the total was over $7.5 million, with 26 permits issued for new buildings or additions to commercial buildings. The residential construction industry also posted strong numbers, with 46 permits issued for new buildings and 59 issued for additions to existing buildings. For 2010, the residential construction industry s development in Weyburn totaled $21,926,880, which is an improvement from 2009 but still down from the values reported for 2007 and 2008. 55 The slight slowdown in 2009 has left room for Weyburn s residential construction industry to expand in order to reach previous values and the City should continue to encourage developers and builders to add to current housing stock. As in many urban municipalities, retail trade occupations offer the most employment opportunities in Weyburn. In 2006, sales and service occupations employed 27 percent of the workforce; the next highest was business and finance at 14 percent. 56 The retail outlets in Weyburn offer service to the community s 11,782 residents and to more than 400 residents in North Weyburn and hundreds more in the rural municipality. The 2003 Development Plan expressed Weyburn s intention to revitalize the Central Business District by encouraging more downtown traffic and encourage residents to consider the neighbourhood a destination for shopping and entertainment. 57 Encouraging revitalization by offering incentives to small and midsized businesses to locate downtown will increase the number of employees required in the Central Business District. By providing housing in the downtown that is suitable and affordable for entry-level retail service employees, with high or mid-density buildings and rentals or lowdensity affordable houses and suites, the City could coordinate both downtown residency, which can add character to the downtown area, and encourage businesses to locate in the neighbourhood to capitalize on increased pedestrian traffic from neighbourhood residents. 23

Section 3: Community Growth and Housing Stock Overview This section provides an analysis of present housing supply in Weyburn based on assessments of past housing market trends, current resale values, location, value and target market of new housing, rental rates and list to sale ratios that together provide insight into development strengths and challenges in the community. Available housing stock is analyzed in relation to the demographic trends outlined in Section 2 and connections are made between population, income projections and pressure points in the housing market. The study of the housing market over a period of 10 to 20 years provides a more comprehensive perspective on how housing demand and supply have changed and how inadequate planning causes shortages in key sectors of the market, especially in affordable housing and in Weyburn s case, in rental units of all types. Healthy community growth is undeniably linked to housing availability and range of options. Each level and type of housing available to the market impacts on the other levels. For example, the number of rental units available is linked directly to the number of entry-level houses available, because residents wanting to leave the rental market cannot do so if there are no houses affordable at moderate income levels. If the stock of entry-level houses is higher, more rental spaces will be vacated which can help ease concerns of lower income earners and new entrants to the workforce. Therefore, any housing assessment must analyze the entire market and not just those areas under severe market pressure. This section of the assessment provides analysis of current housing provision and housing market history in order to assist city planners form an overall view of Weyburn s housing and how best to address shortages. The housing market is not composed of disparate sectors, but is an interrelated collection of various houses at all price levels for rent and to own. Each sector is impacted by community and income demographics and addressing challenges in one sector will necessarily alter the whole. Initiatives taken to help address current issues must be formulated while keeping in mind the effects on the entire market. 24

Housing Market 1984 to 2004 A study of Weyburn s housing market over the last two decades presents a clear picture of how steeply the average resale price of houses has risen over just the last four to five years. The Canadian Real Estate Association compiled Weyburn s housing market statistics from 1984 to 2004, including average sale price, sale to list ratios and value of property sold. The average home price over the 20 year period ranged from $47,926 in 1984 to $85,436 in 2004 (the only year the market average rose above $80,000), an increase of 78 percent. 58 The average home price rose above $60,000 for only two years from 1984 to 1997 and from 1997 to 2004, the average annual home price rose above $70,000 only twice. 59 Home listings for the period averaged nearly 300 listings per year, but home sales figures averaged only 125 houses sold per year, meaning that even at comparatively low prices, the sales to listing ratio was below half. 60 The value of market house prices between 1985 and 2003 fell below the rate of inflation, meaning that investors in Weyburn s real estate market did not break even on their housing purchase until prices began to rise after 2004. Comparatively, housing purchased close to the average price in 2004 could potentially be sold today for close to $220,000, the current average sale price. The majority of homes built prior to 1960 currently listed for sale on MLS are located in neighbourhoods close to the Central Business District. The oldest home available for sale as of February 2011 was built in 1910 and was listed for sale at $157,000. Average current list prices for homes built prior to 1980 range from just over $185,000 (for houses built prior to 1950) to over $250,000. Houses built over 30 years ago are more likely to be in need of major repairs and less likely to conform to National Building Code Standards or energy efficiency guidelines; additional money spent on repairs would increase the shelter cost-to-income ratio (STIR), meaning that these older homes, even with lower list prices, might be unaffordable for low and moderate income earners. Increases in average list prices may result in a shortage of houses that are affordable for individuals and families seeking entry-level housing, decreasing the possibility that current renters can move into homeownership. Unfortunately, unaffordable, potentially unsuitable housing and housing shortages are causing serious problems for economies and overall livability in cities and towns across Saskatchewan: once thought to offer relief from unaffordable housing in larger urban centers, cities Weyburn s size are now priced to match housing prices in Saskatoon and Regina and some communities in Alberta, which discourages workers migrating from these communities from becoming permanent residents in the community. 25

New Home Market 2000-2010 The economic and population increases in the last five years have prompted builders to develop more new housing, but a large percentage of new dwellings constructed are larger, higher priced, executive single-family dwellings rather than smaller, modestly priced entry-level and affordable homes. New housing currently on the market is built to suit those looking for higher priced market housing, and have an average square footage of 1,750 feet. Single-family houses on the market built after 2000 are priced over $300,000 with an average price of $371,000 for all housing types built in the last 10 years. This is priced far out of the range of about half of the income demographic of Weyburn and would be out of the range of anyone looking for entry-level housing. More focus must shift to providing new houses that are more reasonably priced and sized to suit those making under $55,000 annually. Construction data from 2000 to 2010 indicates that the value of new residential development has increased from just over $1.5 million to almost $22 million; the number of residential units, both single and multi-family, built in 2000 was 16, whereas in 2010, 109 buildings were constructed. 61 Of the 66 existing lots the City offered for development in 2009, 64 were removed from inventory and ten were added, meaning that only 12 lots existed as of December 2010; by early 2011, there were no lots available for purchase. 62 City Planners intend to offer 77 lots for development in the coming year, but in order to retain developers in sufficient numbers in the community, more lots for larger developments should be offered. A subdivision proposal for the South Hill neighbourhood is currently up for review which, if approved, will add 50 more lots with a variety of housing, from single family dwellings to condominium apartments and townhouses. 63 City of Weyburn statistics on the average value of building permits issued for 2010 support the data indicating a trend towards higher build values and new home list prices for single family dwellings. In 2007, the average permit value for a single family dwelling unit was $225,333; in 2010, the average value of the permit was $295,601, a 31 percent increase over three years. 64 The per dwelling value of multiple family dwelling permits issued actually decreased over the same period, which is a positive sign for entry-level homebuyers, as condominiums and townhouses often offer the best opportunities to enter the housing market. The average lot price for city-owned lots for 2011 was $57,054 for an R1 zoned development. 65 New single family dwelling permits are issued to builders that are providing housing for top market prices only and these values are rising; multiple family dwelling permits have lower values, but the total amount of permits issued is much lower, almost half, of those issued for single family dwellings. 66 This indicates a predominance of single family units over multiple units under development in the City. 26

The City of Weyburn has expanded rapidly in a relatively short period and city planners realize the importance of establishing a development plan for growth as soon as possible. The City has recognized that providing serviced lots to developers and builders is crucial to maintaining current development and encouraging further expansion in new home development. Also essential is offering options for builders to develop various kinds of housing for current and future residents, beyond the low-density, luxury, single-family units recently constructed in new developments. New building permits for multi-family units hit a 15 year high in 2003, with 136 new multi-family units built, but this has decreased in subsequent years despite current demand for rentals and more affordable housing options. Higher density units provide options for renters to live in affordable and suitable housing and careful planning can ensure that units are located to take advantage of existing amenities, such as parks, grocery stores and places of work. City of Weyburn Building Permits Year Approved Single Family Approved Multi-family 2007 51 81 2008 79 20 2009 25 24 2010 44 65 Source: City of Weyburn, Building Department Annual Report 2010. Resale Market Weyburn s resale market changed during a growth phase between 2006 and 2010 when the average price of a house increased by 140 percent in a 4 year period. 67 In 2006, the average price of a home in Weyburn was $100,000; by 2010, this price had more than doubled to $240,000 (see Table 1). 68 The rapid growth in housing prices coincides with increased economic development and may indicate that the supply of housing is inadequate for the needs of the community. However, data from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) from 2000 to 2010 shows an average sales to listing ratio of 0.62, which means that almost 40 percent of houses for sale annually over that period failed to sell when listed. 69 On average, 213 homes were listed annually and 131 were sold annually; the best resale year was 2006, with a 0.91 sales to listing ratio and the worst year for sales was 2001, with a 0.44 ratio. 70 Although the rise in prices indicates that sellers believed buyers would pay more for housing, the data on actual sales is not as conclusive. As prices rise, those who can afford to buy enter the market at the offered price and those who cannot afford the list price may choose to remain in their current home or seek rental accommodation instead. 27

The perception that Weyburn is a seller s market is reflected both in rising resale list prices and in the increase in number of listings. Between 2006 and 2010, sales improved only marginally, from 127 to 148 homes sold in that time, about a 16 percent increase, but the number of listings rose from 139 to 210, an increase of 58 percent. 71 If sellers perceive that a market favourable to high list prices exists, more sellers will enter the market, even if they did not consider selling prior to the average increase. However, as previously mentioned, if homebuyers consider these list prices to be inflated, or if they are unable to afford housing at market resale values, many will rent rather than buy which puts more pressure on the rental market. For those who cannot find suitable rental accommodation, the last resort is to take up residence in hotels and motels instead of attempting to find more, suitable, long term living arrangements. Table 1: Weyburn Resale Market 2006-2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sales 127 104 118 143 148 $ Volume $12,742,500 $13,480,700 $20,450,080 $32,205,035 $35,532,083 Avg. Price $100,335 $129,622 $177,827 $225,210 $240,083 New Listings 139 123 171 220 210 Source: Canadian Real Estate Association MLS Database For workers coming from other municipalities and provinces, these temporary living arrangements are increasingly common. Despite the above average earnings reported in 2006 and the general trend towards rising earning potential, the rapid increase in household value has outpaced what many newcomers to and residents of Weyburn can afford. The difference between housing costs and income potential has affected the affordability rating for Weyburn, which is determined by dividing the average price of housing by the average household income (see Table 2 below for comparisons). In 2006, the average household income in Weyburn was approximately $50,000 and the average value of a home was $100,000 resulting in an affordability index of 2.0. In 2010, with an average household income of $75,000 and average house price of $240,000, the affordability index increased to 3.2 and is considered to be moderately unaffordable. 72 28

Rating Affordable Table 2: Housing Affordability Rating Category Median Multiple 3.0 or Less Moderately Unaffordable 3.1 to 4.0 Seriously Unaffordable 4.1 to 5.0 Severely Unaffordable Source: Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey 5.1 & Over Although Weyburn s current housing is considered moderately unaffordable by the standards set by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the dominant income group of Weyburn in 2006 earned over $70,000 per household annually. Therefore, construction of market priced homes will likely continue to grow, which is positive for the city and the rest of the housing market: developers are interested in building homes for the market and are more likely to take advantage of incentives offered by the city to build entry-level and affordable housing if they are already building in the community. Although 33 percent of Weyburn s population can afford current market-priced housing, the majority need options for entry-level housing, whether in newly developed areas or in older neighbourhoods through infill construction. Current Listings There are no longer many units listed below $150,000 in Weyburn and those on the market are neither in suitable living condition nor adequate to sustain an average sized family. With only a few new houses on the market, the median age of homes currently listed were constructed in 1971 and, requiring almost four times the average annual household income to purchase in Weyburn, the average price of a home listed is $259,318. 73 Unfortunately, this price point is out of reach for many individuals and families hoping to enter the housing market. While the average price of a listed home built before 1959 is $187,622, (lower than the market average for all resale homes), these houses may fall short of the acceptability standard and require extensive renovation and investment to render them acceptable. 74 Homes built before 1959 are the most prevalent on the market, accounting for 21 of the 69 listings. Houses built after 2000 are much more expensive, and have an average selling price of $371,100, 43 percent above average. As mentioned, many of the older houses may be unsuitable or in need of major renovations. There are houses on the market that were built prior to 1950 that have been extensively renovated, but once these renovations are done, the houses are put on the market at prices competitive to new houses built within the last 20 years. Older character homes and smaller homes in established neighbourhoods that are usually suitable for younger families and 29

individuals in the market for entry-level priced homes are being renovated and listed at prices ranging from $250,000 to over $300,000. 75 The housing market in Weyburn makes these smaller homes in older areas more attractive for investors to repair and resell at high prices; once these homes are renovated, they are priced out of the reach of those earning under $55,000 annually. Weyburn Current Listings 2011 Year Built Average # of Properties < 1959 $187,622 21 1960-1979 $255,218 18 1980-1999 $213,677 12 2000 > $371,100 18 Source: www.realtors.ca accessed March 25, 2011 Rental Housing Market Saskatchewan s current housing shortage is not limited to those seeking homeownership and development efforts need to focus on providing more rental spaces in all municipalities. The overall average vacancy rate across the province for the fall of 2010 was 2.5 percent, with rates in some communities hovering close to one percent. 76 Low availability is affecting average rental rates in most communities: the provincial average rent for all unit types rose 5.6 percent between October 2009 and October 2010. 77 The average cost to rent a two bedroom unit in Saskatchewan at the end of 2010 was $872 per month; using the 30 percent shelter cost to income ration as a benchmark, a Saskatchewan resident or household would need to earn $35,000 annually to afford the average rent on a two bedroom apartment. However, this average only includes larger muncipalities and does not account for wide variations in regions that are currently experiencing above average economic activity or population increases. Although data from Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation is not available for Weyburn, the data for Estevan, a city in the same economic region, indicates that, on average, rental rates for a two bedroom apartment are almost $1000 per month. 78 Regions that have resource exploration as a main economic driver experience the most severe rental shortages due to an increased number of temporary workers who rent while they work and own housing in other municipalities or provinces. 30

The lack of statistical data on vacancy and rental rates for Weyburn causes challenges in the formulation of a useful housing plan in regard to how many rental units are needed to suit demand. Many community stakeholders and business owners have expressed concern that rental units are unavailable in all types, from affordable units large enough for families to entry-level and market priced rentals for students and families. Legal secondary suites provided by private homeowners, which are well suited for the needs of students and new entrants to the workforce, are reportedly almost non-existant and some older rental apartment units in the city are undergoing conversion to owner-occupied condominium complexes. Due to community concern, the City has resisted approving applications for condominium conversions, which decreases the number of rentals removed from the market, but does little to increase the supply. Property managers for apartment buildings in Weyburn reported zero vacancy rates in the last three to five years with rent on two bedroom units ranging from $650 per month to almost $1000 per month. Data pulled from rental classifieds in March 2011 indicates that the average monthly rent on a unit of any type, including room rentals and rent sharing, was $685. Low vacancy rates and limited available options have driven up demand, but with little development focus placed on higher density rental buildings or incentives for secondary suite development, many residents and newcomers who may prefer renting over owning are pushed into homeownership which shifts pressure onto the homeownership market. The City has offered some encouragement to builders to develop multi-family units, such as the 100 percent tax abatement offered to Elgin Developments to build 64 purpose-built rental units in a developed neighbourhood, but more needs to be done to ensure that developers provide purpose-built rentals or that homeowners see the benefits of developing secondary suites to offset their housing costs. The newly announced plan to expand the Southeast Regional College Campus in Weyburn will increase the student population in the community and the current lack of studentappropriate rental units may become a more immediate problem without efforts to accommodate student and new graduate options in the rental market. Many of Saskatchewan s communities are experiencing the negative effects of being unprepared for sudden growth. Now is the opportunity for Weyburn s community stakeholders to educate themselves about options available to communities to help address their housing needs. 31

Neighbourhood Assessment As in any city, location also factors into the price of a house. In Weyburn, the most expensive resale units were listed in newer subdivisions located in the Assiniboia Park and Silver Heights neighbourhoods. Houses listed in Silver Heights have an average list price of $470,000 and are, on average, over 1,500 square feet 79. According to the Saskatchewan Assessment Management Agency (SAMA), the average assessed value of property in Assiniboia Park is $150,000, the highest assessed values in the City along with properties in Silver Heights ($160,000 average assessed value). 80 These neighbourhoods have larger houses and lots and are zoned for single-family dwellings, which is low density. The neighbourhoods of Highfield Park and East Central Residential have the next highest average assessed property values at $99,010 and $100,900 respectively 81 ; the average list price of houses on the market in these neighbourhoods is $291,000 and $236,450 respectively 82. Highfield Park is a low density neighbourhood and is the location of a junior high school, the Weyburn General Hospital and the Weyburn Leisure Centre, making this neighbourhood the ideal for families and seniors in terms of accessibility to amenities. The East Central Residential neighbourhood has a mix of zoning and contains some of the oldest character homes in Weyburn. This neighbourhood is close to the Central Business District, and targeting this area for higher density and more affordable single-family and multi-family infills may bring more pedestrian traffic to the downtown core to assist in the desired revitalization of this area as proposed in the Weyburn Development Plan from 2003. Generally, neighbourhoods with higher assessed property values are located north of the Souris River and the new neighbourhoods are located in the north of the City as well. The South Hill Residential neighbourhood is the most heavily populated area south of the river and is zoned for a wide mix of different housing, including old residential houses and mobile homes. South Hill Mixed Use is a smaller neighbourhood adjacent to South Hill Residential with the lowest average house prices and assessed land value; the area is dominated by Clark Park green space and has very little residential development. Because of the relatively low assessed land value, these neighbourhoods appear to be an ideal location for affordable housing, but because of the distance to amenities such as schools, libraries or health centers, they are less desirable for students, seniors and moderate income families. Instead, affordable and entry-level housing developments are best situated to the north of the river in neighbourhoods such as Souris Valley and Exhibition Park. 32

Conclusion The City of Weyburn requested that the Canadian Home Builders Association Saskatchewan prepare a Housing Need and Demand Assessment as a first step to developing a Housing Business Plan for the community in a time of record growth and employment. Weyburn City Councilors and Administrators recognize that the economic environment and population of Weyburn is undergoing changes that present both benefits and challenges to building a strong and sustainable community. By taking responsibility to guide the process of growth and expansion, the City can use the economic revival to help ensure that all members of the community have the opportunity to access safe, adequate and affordable housing and become active and engaged members of a vibrant community. Weyburn is ideally located to receive the benefits of a strong and growing resource sector, a healthy agricultural economy and the renewed sense of optimism for the future from surrounding communities. The high demand for labour in the region is driving the population expansion, which in turn attracts businesses, investors and the residential construction sector. Development of new neighbourhoods, renovation of existing homes and proposals for further expansion should continue while demand for housing remains strong and the City provides a welcoming environment within which to build. Weyburn s population reports higher than average household income and many in the community are positioned to access the new houses on the market today that offer luxury living with the benefits of living in a mid-sized community. The housing market, however, is not ideal for those unable to purchase higher priced market housing. In fact, half of the population working in Weyburn needs access to smaller, entry-level houses, townhomes and condominiums in order to build their capacity and savings to move up the housing continuum. The price of housing on the market today may convince some newcomers to rent rather than buy. When combined with the typical demand for rental units from students, new entrants to the workforce and low income earners, this diverted demand from those who could otherwise be homeowners puts pressure on an already tight rental market. For many potential homeowners, renting affordable and suitable housing that allows for savings is an essential first step to entering the homebuyers market. For temporary employees, rental units provide the only option to work in the region, increasing labour supply and contributing to the economy, while offering the option to eventually become permanent members of the community. Sufficient and adequate housing must be provided to secure the population growth required to drive economic expansion and retain a work force in the highly competitive provincial labour market. City Council and Administrators recognize the challenges faced by the province, region and community in regards to housing availability as employment opportunities draw in workers from surrounding regions, provinces and countries. The City is in a position to leverage community expansion and build capacity to offer incentives to developers and builders to focus on providing housing options the community needs: entry-level, suitable homes available for young and 33

growing families; affordable purpose-built rental units for students and new workers; designated seniors residences to offer options for the aging population in the future; and higher density housing to revitalize the Central Business District and help increase opportunities for small business in the downtown core. New neighbourhoods and market priced housing currently under development offer the tax base needed in order for the City to fund programs, incentives and policies to encourage construction of purpose built homes that are affordable to low income families and purpose built rentals that will increase rental supply in the long term. The Housing Need and Demand Assessment provided analyzes the growth and changes Weyburn has undergone and offers a profile of the community in relation to the housing supply. It is intended to establish part of the research base upon which further plans, policies and development initiatives may be founded. The assessment is the starting point from which City Council and Administrators can begin development plans to address housing needs within the community and to monitor growth and changes. By maintaining an ongoing process of analysis and assessment of demographic, labour force and economic changes, the City is better prepared to update and amend any policies and programs implemented. Weyburn City Council and Administrators are faced with a new opportunity to lead and guide the sustainable growth and development of their community. With a new framework for planning efficient and effective development, the City is poised to leverage the gains of today to build the community for tomorrow. 34

Notes 1 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing in Canada Online: Definitions of Variables, Online: http://cmhc.beyond2020.com/hicodefinitions_en.html#_average_shelter_cost_to_income_rati. (Accessed March 29, 2011). 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. 4 Statistics Canada, Low-Income Cut-Offs, Stat Can Website. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75f0002m/2010005/lico-sfr-eng.htm. (Accessed March 21,2011) 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Housing in Canada Online. 8 Ibid. 9 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Canadian Housing Observer, 2009. Online: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/pdf/66663.pdf, 15. (Accessed February 22, 2011). 10 Statistics Canada, Low Income Cut-Off Table, Online: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75f0002m/2010005/tbl/tbl01-eng.htm#n1 (Accessed March 10, 2011). 11 SaskBiz, Community Profile, Online: http://www.saskbiz.ca/search/communitymain.asp?themes=theme_demographics_2006&loc_type=c ity&loc=gaz&loc=1&loc_name=moose%20jaw&comm=150&units=1&curr=1 (Accessed February 22, 2011). 12 Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce, A Sustainable Growth Strategy for a New Saskatchewan, Summer, 2010. Online: http://www.saskchamber.com/files/file/growthstrategy/2010/growthstrategysummerreview.pdf, 1. (Accessed March, 2011). 13 Saskatchewan Health Information Network, 2010 Covered Population, p.48. Online: http://www.health.gov.sk.ca/population-stats. (Accessed March, 2011) 14 Government of Saskatchewan, Funding For Southeast Regional College Weyburn Facility, News Release, February 25, 2011. Online: http://www.gov.sk.ca/news?newsid=25a792b3-d4a0-4cca-8c27-eaa649fb693f (Accessed March 20, 2011) 15 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Information, January 2006, Catalogue No: 71-001-XIE, 34: January 2010, Catalogue No: 71-001-X, 35. 16 Saskatchewan Health Information Network. 2010. 17 CanaCode Cluster Descriptions, Minufold Date Mining Inc., Online. Accessed November 12, 2010 <http://www.neighbourhood123.com/canacodedesc.html> 18 Saskatchewan Health Information Network, 2006 Covered Population, p.49 and 2010 Covered Population, p.48. Online: http://www.health.gov.sk.ca/population-stats. (Accessed March, 2011) 19 Saskatchewan Health Information Network, 2010 Covered Population Data. 20 Weyburn Housing Authority provided information on number of units under WHA supervision, waiting lists and turnover for the units. Contact Roger Parenteau, Director, Housing Authorities & Northern Services for the Saskatchewan Housing Corporation. 21 Statistics Canada. 2007. Weyburn, Saskatchewan (Code4702047) (table). 2006 Community Profiles. 2006 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 92-591-XWE. Ottawa. Released March 13, 2007. Accessed March 22, 2011. http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-591/index.cfm?lang=e 22 Elliot, Doug. Selected Demographic and Economic Characteristics of the Aboriginal Population in Saskatchewan, Sask Trends Monitor, Presented to the Canadian Bar Association Mid-Winter Meeting, January 31, 2008. Online: http://www.sasktrends.ca/can percent20bar percent20assoc.pdf (Accessed December 16, 2010). 35

23 Statistics Canada. 2007. Weyburn, Saskatchewan (Code4702047) (table). Aboriginal Population Profile. 2006 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 92-594-XWE. Ottawa. Released January 15, 2008. http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-594/index.cfm?lang=e, (Accessed March 21, 2011). 24 The Aboriginal population is growing at a higher rate than the general population of the province, and demographic projections indicate that the Aboriginal proportion will grow to 32.5 percent by 2045. Today, Aboriginal peoples occupy an increasingly important role in the province, with 2001 census figures indicating 83,745 Status Indians, 43,695 Métis, and 190 Inuit-together amounting to 13.6 percent of the population. Online: http://www.gov.sk.ca/default.aspx?dn=d35c114d-b058-49db-896a-4f657f5fd66e. (Accessed December 23, 2010) 25 Statistics Canada, 2006 Aboriginal Population, Government of Canada, Online: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html. (Accessed February 23, 2011) 26 Ibid. 27 Ibid. 28 Statistics Canada, Table 2 : Low-Income Cutoffs (1992 Base) Before Tax, June, 2010. Online: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75f0002m/2010005/tbl/tbl02-eng.htm#tphp (Accessed March 21, 2011). 29 Statistics Canada. 2007. Weyburn, Saskatchewan (Code4702047) (table). 2006 Community Profiles. 2006 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 92-591-XWE. Ottawa. Released March 13, 2007. http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-591/index.cfm?lang=e (Accessed March 22, 2011). 30 SaskBiz, Financial Income: Income Comparison, Weyburn. Online: http://www.saskbiz.ca/search/communitymain.asp?themes=theme_demographics_2006&loc_type=c ity&loc=gaz&loc=1&loc_name=weyburn&comm=210&units=1&curr=1. (Accessed March 22, 2011.) 31 Ibid. 32 Ministry of Advanced Education, Employment and Immigration, Labour Market Conditions for the Apprenticeship Trades Government of Saskatchewan. April 2010. Online: http://www.aeei.gov.sk.ca/2010-labour-market-conditions-for-apprenticeship-executive-summary. (Accessed March 22, 2011.) 33 Ibid. 34 Ibid. 35 Ibid. 36 Occupational Employment outlook 2009-2014. http://www.aeei.gov.sk.ca/2010-saskatchewanemployment-forecast-occupational-employment-outlook 37 Labour Market Conditions for the Apprenticeship Trades. 38 Ibid. 39 Government of Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan Continues to Have the Second Lowest Unemployment Rate in the Country News Release. March 11, 2011. Online: http://www.gov.sk.ca/news?newsid=0465afdb-e1aa-4ff4-8877-ea028a68d8d5. (Accessed March 21, 2011). 40 Saskatchewan Labour Market Commission, Labour Market Issues in Saskatchewan: A Situational Analysis, May 2009. SaskTrends Monitor, 13. 41 Statistics Canada, Selected labour force characteristics (seasonally adjusted) Saskatchewan, Table 4-8. January 2001-January 2011, Statistics Canada. March, 2011. Online: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/71-001-x/2011002/t011-eng.htm. (Accessed March, 2011.) 42 Industrial Employment Outlook 2009-2014, Online: http://www.aeei.gov.sk.ca/2010-saskatchewanemployment-forecast-industrial-employment-outlook. (Accessed March 23, 2011) 43 Ibid. 44 Saskatchewan Southeast Enterprise Region, Oil & Gas: The Oil & Gas Industry in South East Saskatchewan, Online: http://www.sseer.ca/oil-gas.htm. (Accessed March, 2011). 45 Saskatchewan Southeast Enterprise Region, Mining & Power Generation: Mining and Energy in Southeast Saskatchewan, Online: http://www.sseer.ca/mining-power-generation.htm. (Accessed March, 2011). 46 Saskatchewan Southeast Enterprise Region, Oil & Gas. 36

47 Cenovus Energy, Operations: Weyburn, Cenovus Website. Online: http://cenovus.com/operations/oil/weyburn.html. (Accessed March 20, 2011). 48 Ibid. 49 Saskatchewan Southeast Enterprise Region, Agriculture: Agriculture in Southeast Saskatchewan, Online: http://www.sseer.ca/agriculture.htm. (Accessed March, 2011). 50 Weyburn Inland Terminal 51 Saskatchewan Southeast Enterprise Region. Overview, Online: http://www.sseer.ca/overview1.htm. (Accessed March, 2011). 52 SaskBiz. Community Profile and Statistics: Labour/Workforce 2006. Online: http://www.saskbiz.ca/search/communitymain.asp?themes=theme_demographics_2006&loc_type=c ity&loc=gaz&loc=1&loc_name=weyburn&comm=210&units=1&curr=1 (Accessed March, 2011). 53 New hospital closer to realization due to new funding formula, Weyburn This Week. February 25, 2011. Online: http://www.weyburnthisweek.com/article/20110225/weythisweek0101/302259959/- 1/weythisweek0101/new-hospital-closer-to-realization-due-to-new-funding-formula. (Accessed February 28, 2011). 54 SaskBiz. Community Profile and Statistics: Large Employers. Online: http://www.saskbiz.ca/search/communitymain.asp?themes=theme_demographics_2006&loc_type=c ity&loc=gaz&loc=1&loc_name=weyburn&comm=210&units=1&curr=1 (Accessed March, 2011). 55 Engineering Department, Building Department Report, City of Weyburn. 2010. Online: http://weyburn.ca/pdfs/2010_annual_bldg_report.pdf (Accessed March 19, 2011). 56 SaskBiz, Labour/Workforce 2006, Source: 2006 Census from Statistics Canada. Accessed April 30, 2010. Online. http://www.saskbiz.ca/search/communitymain.asp?themes=theme_demographics_2006&loc_type=c ity&loc=gaz&loc=1&loc_name=weyburn&comm=210&units=1&curr=1. (Accessed March, 2011). 57 City of Weyburn, Development Plan, February 2003. Online: http://weyburn.ca/pdfs/dev_plan.pdf (Accessed February, 2011). 58 Canadian Real Estate Association Database, Average Annual Sale Price 1984-2004 59 Ibid. 60 Ibid. 61 City of Weyburn, Building Department Annual Report, 2010. Online: http://weyburn.ca/pdfs/2010_annual_bldg_report.pdf (Accessed March, 2011). 62 Ibid. 63 Rise Developments Website, Current Projects. Online. http://www.risedevelopments.com/projects.html (Accessed March 23, 2011). 64 City of Weyburn, Building Department Annual Reports: 2008 and 2010. Online. http://weyburn.ca/modules.php?name=sections&op=viewarticle&artid=835. Accessed March, 2011. 65 City of Weyburn, Property Available Sale Price List, November 2010 and January, 2011. 66 Ibid. 67 CREA Database. 68 Ibid. 69 CREA Database: MLS Listing Data. 70 Ibid. 71 Ibid. 72 Ibid. 73 MLS Real Estate Listings. Compiled from February 28 to March 16. Online: www.realtors.ca 74 Ibid. 75 Ibid. 76 CMHC, Rental Market Report: Saskatchewan Highlights, Fall 2010. Online: http://www.cmhcschl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64519/64519_2010_b02.pdf?fr=1301064582560 (Accessed March, 2011). 77 Ibid. 78 Ibid. 37

79 CREA Database. 80 Saskatchewan Assessment Management Agency Data. Assessment Information Online. Compiled from SAMA View. Online: http://samaview.sama.sk.ca/sama/map.aspx (Compiled March 23 to 25, 2011). 81 Ibid. 82 CREA Database. 38