10 North Progress Avenue Harrisburg, PA 17109 Phone: (717) 233-8850 Email: james@susquehannapolling.com www.susquehannapolling.com James Lee, President Final Top Line Survey Results PA Statewide Presidential Survey WHTM-TV/ABC27 News Sample Size: 681 Likely General Election Voters Conducted: October 31 November 1, 2016 INTRODUCTION: We are conducting a brief survey of attitudes and opinions concerning some important issues facing Pennsylvania today. May we have just 3 to 4 minutes of your time to complete the survey? Great, thank you F1. To confirm, are you a registered voter at least 18 years or older in Pennsylvania? 1. Yes 681 100% 2. No TERMINATE Q1. Thinking ahead to the general election for President, U.S. Senate and other federal and state races on Tuesday November 8th, would you rate your chances of voting in this election as excellent, good, fair, or poor? 1. Excellent 649 95% 2. Good 32 05% -------------- 3. Fair (TERMINATE) 4. Poor (TERMINATE) Q2. Which one of the following seven issues do you think is the single most important problem facing the country today? (ROTATE ITEMS) Is it. 1. Jobs and the economy 172 25% 2. Terrorism and national security 94 14% 3. Income inequality 61 09% 4. Racial tensions between whites and blacks 24 03% 5. Illegal immigration 36 05% 6. Health care and education 141 21% 7. Making government more accountable and responsive 128 19% 8. None of the above 20 03% 9. Refuse 05 01%
Q3. Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you tend to think of yourself more as a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent or non-affiliated voter? 1. Republican 239 35% 2. Democrat 272 40% 3. Independent/other 167 25% 4. Refuse 03 00% (Rotate Q4-Q5) Q4. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton generally favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of Hillary Clinton? 1. Favorable 274 40% 2. Unfavorable 353 52% 3. No Opinion 54 08% Q5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of Donald Trump? 1. Favorable 255 37% 2. Unfavorable 365 54% 3. No Opinion 60 09% 4. Refuse 01 00% Q6. If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein or Constitutional Party candidate Darrell Castle? (ROTATE NAMES) 1. Clinton/Democrat 308 45% 2. Trump/Republican 293 43% 3. Johnson/Libertarian 16 02% 4. Stein/Green 17 02% 5. Castle/Constitutional 01 00% 6. Other 10 01% 7. Undecided 33 05% 8. Refuse 04 01% Q7. If the election for your United States Senator were being held today would you vote for Republican Pat Toomey, Democrat Katie McGinty or Libertarian Edward Clifford? (ROTATE NAMES) 1. Toomey/Republican 276 41% 2. McGinty/Democrat 319 47% 3. Clifford/Libertarian 33 05% 4. Undecided 44 07% 5. Other/none 04 01% 6. Refuse 04 01% Q8. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else? 1. Republican 279 41% 2. Democrat 315 46% 3. Independent/other 82 12% 4. Refuse 05 01%
Q9. What is your age according to the following brackets 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 54, 55-64, or 65 and over? 1. 18-29 95 14% 2. 30-44 150 22% 3. 45-54 136 20% 4. 55-64 136 20% 5. 65+ 163 24% Q10. When thinking about politics do you tend to identify yourself more as a conservative, a liberal, a progressive or a moderate? 1. Conservative 262 38% 2. Liberal 135 20% 3. Progressive 65 10% 4. Moderate 175 26% 5. None of the above 39 06% 6. Refuse 05 01% Q11. What is your highest level of education? 1. High school diploma 194 28% 2. Associate s degree from a trade or vocational school 143 21% 3. 4-year degree from a college or university 205 30% 4. Master s or doctorate degree 136 20% 5. Refuse 04 01% Q12. Is your main racial heritage of Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian or another background? (CHECK ALL THAT APPLY) 1. Caucasian 568 83% 2. African-American 72 11% 3. Hispanic 11 02% 4. Asian 09 01% 5. Other 27 04% 6. Refuse 04 01% Thank you for your time and participation in the survey. Have a good day/night. Gender 1. Male 327 48% 2. Female 354 52%
Area (from Record): 27 (04%) 1. Northwest [Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Venango, Warren, Forest] 75 (11%) 2. Southwest [Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, Indiana, Armstrong, Butler] 82 (12%) 3. The T /Central [Jefferson, Elk, McKean, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Centre, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Blair, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Sullivan, Lycoming, Clinton, Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, Mifflin, Juniata] 89 (13%) 4. Northeast/Lehigh Valley [Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, Pike, Wayne] 102 (15%) 5. South Central [Perry, Cumberland, Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, Dauphin, Berks] 143 (21%) 6. Southeast [Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks] 82 (12%) 7. Allegheny County 82 (12%) 8. Philadelphia Vote History (from record): G14, G13, G12, G11, as well as new registrants since November 2015 1. 0x 61 09% 2. 1x 83 12% 3. 2x 163 24% 4. 3x 174 26% 5. 4x 200 29% Household Party (from record): 1. Republican 274 40% 2. Democrat 351 52% 3. Independent/other 56 08% Phone Type (from record): 1. Landline phone 504 74% 2. Cellular phone 177 26% Data Collection Method*: 1. Live Agent Interviews 320 47% 2. Automated/IVR surveys 361 53%
Methodology: This poll was co-sponsored by WHTM-TV/ABC27 News and conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. Completed interviews were conducted October 31-November 1, 2016 with 681 likely general election voters in Pennsylvania, most of which have prior vote history. In order to be eligible to complete the survey, respondents had to first confirm their likelihood of voting in the November 8th General Election for President and U.S. Senator. *SP&R s Unique Hybrid Data Collection (Live Agent Interviews Combined with IVR/Automated Surveys) Interviews are conducted with respondents who use a landline telephone as their primary means of contact through our IVR/automated polling software, in which survey respondents score their answers to a pre-recorded set of questions using their telephone key pads. Automated polling software using a pre-recorded voice expert ensures that all respondents hear the questions in the exact same way, with the same exact voice inflection, thereby reducing any incidence of unintentional interviewer bias common in some live agent surveys. An augmentation of live agent interviews is simultaneously conducted with harder-to-reach segments of the population (e.g., younger age groups, households using cellular telephone exchanges as their primary means of contact, etc.) using the professionally-trained survey research staff from SP&R s main telephone call center. Results to both live agent interviews and automated/ivr surveys are combined into a single data set. Surveys are carefully monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania s electorate is achieved based on party registration, geography, age, gender, racial background and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted. The margin of error for a sample size of 681 is +/-3.76% at the 95% confidence level. Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. is a nationally-recognized polling and focus group company and conducts polling for numerous political, media and corporate clients in PA, NY, IN, FL, NJ, MD, DE, SC, NC, WVA and many others. The internet news service Sunshine State News of Florida referred to SP&R as one of the prominent pollsters in the country for its accuracy in the 2010 Florida Governor s race.