The Local Coastal Program Update Workshop #2: Adapting to a Changing Coastline

The Local Coastal Program Update Workshop #2: Adapting to a Changing Coastline Santa Monica High School Barnum Hall Wednesday, April 13 th, 2016 6:30PM - 8:30PM Close to 70 residents and stakeholders from the Santa Monica community and beyond attended the second Local Coastal Program Update community workshop. The event was held at Santa Monica High School s Barnum Hall on April 13 th, 2016 from 6:30PM to 8:30PM. The purpose of the workshop was to provide the community with information on current efforts to address climate change and sea level rise in Santa Monica and the greater region. The meeting was held in collaboration with the Office of Sustainability and the Environment and the USC Sea Grant, who are currently preparing the Climate Action & Adaptation Plan and AdaptLA, respectively. The evening began with four thematic interactive stations: Thinking About Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, Protecting the Coastal Treasures of Santa Monica, Coastal Hazards and Planning for the Future, and Visualizing Sea Level Rise. Participants wrote their input on the boards and provide their thoughts, questions, and comments on the four topics. Following the station exercise, participants were ushered into the theater where several short preview videos were shown that explained the science behind sea level rise and climate change. LCP Project Manager Liz Bar-El and OSE Sustainability Analyst Garrett Wong kicked off the presentation with some background on the subject matter. Drs. Juliette Hart and David Revell then gave the feature presentations on the COSMoS study and expectations for the LA coastline over the next 100 years due to sea level rise. Potential adaptation measures being used in other localities were also presented. The presentations were followed by a Q&A session. This summary includes all written comments received at the workshop. 1

Presentation Summary Below is a summary of the workshop presentation. A copy of the full presentation is available for download on the Local Coastal Program Update project page. LCP Introduction The California Coastal Commission s purpose is to carry out the 1976 Coastal Act, which lays out the policies for protecting the California coastline. The Coastal Act also requires local jurisdictions to create an LCP, which are planning tools used by local governments to guide development in the Coastal Zone. The City of Santa Monica last updated its LCP in 1992. As it stands, Santa Monica s LCP does not reflect the current conditions of the City. The City is updating the LCP again to reflect and support the plans adopted since 1992, such as the LUCE, CCSP, Ped and Bike Action Plans, and to abide by the new Coastal Commission guidelines that require cities to address sea level rise and climate change. For more information on the LCP Update process, take a look at the summary of the first LCP workshop. Sea Level Rise and the Local Coastal Program In August of 2015, the Coastal Commission adopted the Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance document, which requires local jurisdictions to use the best available science on sea level rise to create policies that address climate change in the coastal zone. The document requires local jurisdictions to develop a series of sea level rise scenarios, and to pick from a menu of policy options for dealing with climate change. The document is written for the entire state of California, so the policy recommendations are meant to be read as potential options, rather than required actions for each city. Climate Action & Adaptation Plan Garrett Wong from OSE briefly introduced the CAAP to the audience, and clarified the similarities and differences between the CAAP and LCP. The CAAP addresses climate change and greenhouse gas emissions at a citywide level, rather than solely along the coast, as the LCP does. This means the CAAP considers a longer list of climate change issues, like temperature changes, heat waves, air quality, energy assurance, fuel, solid waste, and municipal 2

operations. The CAAP also focuses on existing infrastructure, while the LCP focuses on regulations for future land use and development. The two plans overlap in their consideration of sea level rise vulnerability and adaptation and resiliency strategies for new construction. The Land Use Plan portion of the LCP, which contains the goals and policies, is estimated to be completed and adopted by Summer of 2017. At that point, the CAAP will incorporate the language from the LUP to ensure consistency across the two plans, and will pursue plan adoption in the Fall of 2017. Dr. Revell: Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Dr. David Revell, an expert on sea level rise and climate change, and a consultant for both the LCP, CAAP, and USC Sea Grant, began his portion of the presentation with a brief overview of the impacts of climate change. The risk of sea level rise cannot be assessed on its own, but rather in combination with high tides, storm events, and wave wash-up. All of these factors, combined with sea level rise, is what puts the coast at risk from climate change. Climate change, which is attributed to human activities, must be differentiated from climate cycles, which are natural cycles that cause ice ages and ice melts. The natural climate cycle is caused by three orbital cycles of the earth: the orbit, tilt, and wobble, contribute to past changes in the Earth s climate. The three orbital cycles are the reason for the last ice ages. 20,000 years ago temperatures dropped and 3% of the ocean s water was transferred to the continents as ice, lowering sea level. The cycle then naturally reversed and temperatures rose, ice melted, and sea level once again began to rise. At present, sea level is rising at a rate of 1.2 per year, which is much lower than the 4.5 per year that occurred during the first 10,000 years following the last Ice Age. Although sea levels are rising at a relatively low rate, it is predicted that the rate will grow exponentially in the near future. Sea level rise is driven by both global and regional forces. At the global scale, warming temperatures from climate change and greenhouse gases are causing ocean water to expand, raising sea level in some areas. This same warming causes ice sheets and glaciers to melt, releasing water back to the ocean. 3

Regionally, storm surges and ocean currents cause local sea level rise. Erosion along the coast, movement of tectonic plates, and urban water systems, like groundwater, runoff, and reservoirs, have more local impacts on sea level rise. In Santa Monica, climate change models predict sea levels to rise between 16.7 and 65.5 by the end of the century. Potential consequences of this sea level rise are more frequent coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, accelerated coastal erosion, beach loss, cliff failures, beach access lost, and high cost damages. Regional AdaptLA: Coastal Modeling The Ocean Protection Council, Coastal Commission, and Coastal Conservancy are funding the development of a comprehensive climate change model for the LA region s coastline. The grant is led by the City of Santa Monica on behalf of 11 coastal jurisdictions. USC Sea Grant, a participant in this workshop, is leading the outreach for the AdaptLA project. The coastal model will provide local jurisdictions with the best available scientific models and tools to guide local policies related to sea level rise and climate change. When complete, the model will combine CoSMoS, the Coastal Storms Modeling System that assesses the impact of future, large-scale coastal storms, with models on beach and shoreline changes. The combined model will provide a more accurate prediction of the impacts of sea level rise, taking into account not just coastal storms, but also shoreline change, tides, wind, coastal erosion, and the physical characteristics of the beaches. 4

Adaptation Strategies Local jurisdictions use the coastal models to assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal infrastructure. Based on the level of severity and frequency of coastal hazard events, different adaptation strategies are taken. These adaptation strategies can be grouped into four larger buckets: Do Nothing, Retreat, Accommodate, and Protect. Retreat requires the intervention of local jurisdictions to limit use of or acquire at-risk properties. This is the most extreme form of adaptation, and is generally used under high sea level rise impact scenarios. Retreat options for properties threatened by coastal flooding or erosion are: easements, acquisitions, phased relocation, or purchase with lease back. Accommodation tactics are used when property owners decide to stay put in a coastal hazard zone. Accommodation strategies are used when coastal hazards are at a moderate level. These strategies are expensive, and require homes to physically adapt to the local environment. Some strategies are: elevation, setbacks, and moveable foundations. Protection measures are used to keep the coastal hazards at bay. These measures help to reduce the impact of sea level rise and climate change by holding back the water with seawalls, or diminishing the strength of waves with sediment management. These measures can be relatively inexpensive, but are only effective for low to moderate estimates of sea level rise. These measures can be broken down into green, or more natural measures, and gray, or manmade structures. Green: sediment management, beach nourishment, cobble nourishment. Gray: seawalls and revetments, breakwaters, jetties, artificial reefs, and perched beaches. Policies can be established to promote adaptation to sea level rise. Building limits in hazard zones will prevent overinvestment in properties located in at-risk areas, for example. Public education is a simple measure that can be promoted through policy and can go a long way in changing public behavior and attitudes towards climate change and sea level rise. It is important to understand that these groups of adaptation strategies are triggered by certain levels of sea level rise, and that all measures will be required once a certain threshold is met. The current state of climate change allows cities to rely solely on protection measures, but future projections show that 5

cities will eventually need to implement the more drastic accommodation and retreat measures. At around two feet of sea level rise, which will be seen by 2050, accommodation and retreat will be necessary to protect roadways, structures, and the shoreline. These figures are generalized for the entire coast, and not specific to Santa Monica. More specific standards for adaptation will be released in the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan. Adapting to sea level rise and climate change can be expensive, but there are several financial vehicles available to raise revenue to implement some of these costly adaptation strategies. Transient Occupancy Taxes, which is currently 17% in Santa Monica, can be used to fund adaptation projects. Some other examples are sales tax increases, infrastructure rate payer increases, private development fees for those encroaching on public access and coastal processes, and Green Infrastructure Bonds, like Santa Monica s Measure V. *The following slides of the presentation were not shown due to time constraints, but are provided as additional information. Regional AdaptLA: Vulnerability Study Once the CoSMoS model is complete, AdaptLA will then be able to assess the social, physical, and economic vulnerability of the regional. The plan will document all vulnerable populations, build regional strategies, and promote an investment in beaches, our best defense against sea level rise. The preliminary AdaptLA coastal model can be viewed here at http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/. This model is not as comprehensive as the future CoSMoS 3.0 model, which predicts sea level rise based on multiple factors and scenarios. Urban Tides Initiative The Urban Tides Initiative allows local community members to go out and collect data on flood risks in southern California. The project encourages locals to take photos of high tides or storm events to help ground truth and calibrate the scientific model predictions. This is done by comparing the collected images and comparing them to the model. The project also builds awareness and helps to educate the community on the risks and processes of sea level rise. Find out more about The Urban Tides Initiative here http://dornsife.usc.edu/uscseagrant/urban-tides-initiative/. Other interactive activities are also being used to engage the local community. For example, Owlized launched a sea level rise viewer in Marin County, which allowed the community to see the coast with future projections of sea level rise. The viewer allows participants to peer into the familiar binoculars 6

and see a digital reproduction of their current view, but with several different scenarios of sea level rise. At the night of the event, USC Sea Grant brought a similar virtual reality product that uses a cell phone. Regional Actions Santa Monica is not alone in its efforts to update its Local Coastal Program. The City of Los Angeles is updating the Venice Area Local Coastal Program, just to the south of Santa Monica. Hermosa Beach is also in the process of writing its Local Coastal Program along with an update to its General Plan. Also in the works is the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC), which is a framework for climate action for the greater Los Angeles region. Each jurisdiction faces its own set of problems, so Santa Monica can learn from the efforts of other cities. 7

Station Summaries The following summarizes the four stations and comments received at the stations or on individual comment cards that relate to the station subject. Thinking about Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Private property will be flooded; CO2 increases from congestion; Loss of surf spots; The Santa Monica Pier; Saltwater intrusion into freshwater; The Santa Monica Bay s ecosystem, and the impact of water quality and beach erosion on wildlife. Reduced sand and beach area for recreation; Development preventing an expansion of sandy beaches eastward as sea level rise erodes the western edges of the beach; Sewage failures into the Bay; Storm and flood emergency services should be improved to help residents mitigate and adapt. Concern over the stability of our beaches: o Beaches are relatively stable due to the width, from previous dredging and the jetties. o The future of beaches will become more clear with the TerraCosta beach retreat model. How can the City ensure that the beaches are maintained? o Assess the sediment trap in Malibu; o Assess the debris basins that protect from mud slides, but prevent sediment from being released into the ocean. 8

Protecting the Coastal Treasures of Santa Monica Expand public access options with modernized access walkways. Current underground tunnels flood; Improve and enhance the wetlands and natural habitats along the coast; Protect the Pier: aquarium and fishing deck; Flooding of the 1550 Lot adjacent to the Pier and the beach bike path just south of the Pier; Protect the skate park and boardwalk in Venice. 9

Coastal Hazards and Planning for the Future Do not use buy/lease provisions as a retreat strategy, since developers will rig the pricing; Require flood insurance with a spending cut off when a property repeatedly floods; Require buildings in the flood zone to build structures that will withstand 50 to 100 years of sea level rise; Require private property near erosion areas to transition to public property as sea level rise and erosion worsens; Tax private development in hazard areas for development of wetlands and other protective strategies; Plan for a non-car transportation option along PCH, like a monorail; Offer free home inspections to inform owners of prevention and adaptation measures; The LCP should focus more on resident s safety rather than tourism. How will the Pier be protected from sea level rise in the future? o The City has ongoing projects to improve Pier stability, like the recent pilings and structure improvement. City Planners must do more to address climate change and CO2 emissions. The City should address the impact of earthquakes, and prepare emergency plans for a major event. 10

Visualizing Sea Level Rise This station was hosted by the USC Sea Grant to discuss the preliminary results of CoSMoS and the Urban Tides Initiative. The Urban Tides Initiative allows the community to submit photographs of high tide and storm events along the coast. These images are submitted to scientists that are modeling sea level rise in California, and allows them to confirm the projections of the model. To learn more about how you can get involved with the Urban Tides Initiative, visit: http://dornsife.usc.edu/uscseagrant/urba n-tides-initiative/ 11