Emission Inventories in South America

Emission Inventories in South America Workshop on Global Air Pollutant Emissions Scenarios 11-13 February 215 IIASA - Laxemburg - Austria Laura Dawidowski Department of Chemistry Atomic Energy Commission of Argentina

Outline Greenhouse inventories of South American countries submitted to the UNFCCC Emissions from the 6 cities of the SAEMC project Reconciliation and related activities Final remarks

Latin American countries Central American South American Caribbean Small countries not indicated in the map Dominican Republic Trinidad & Tobago Barbados Guyana Bahamas Grenada St. Lucia Antigua & Barbuda St. Vincent & Grenadines St. Kitts & Nevis Dominica French overseas territories in LA: French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe,Saint Barthélem and Saint Martin Reported under US emissions Puerto Rico

National GHG inventories of South American countries Argentina: 199, 1994, 1997, 2 Bolivia: 199, 1994, 1998, 2, 22, 24 Brazil: 199-25 Chile: 1984-26 Colombia: 199, 1994, 2, 24 Ecuador: 199 Guyana: 199-1998 Paraguay: 199, 1994 Peru: 1994, 2 Uruguay: 199, 1994, 1998, 2, 22, 24 Venezuela: 1999 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1994 NCs for most of the Caribbean and Central American countries 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 85% of the total Latin American GHGs emissions (w/o LULUCF): Brazil (~32%) > México (~19%) > Argentina (~13%) > Venezuela (~9%) > Colombia (~7%) >Peru (~3%) > Chile (~3%) Paraguay - Cuba - Ecuador - Uruguay - Bolivia 21 21

National GHGs emissions by gases in SA (Gg CO 2 eq) Uruguay Ecuador Bolivia Chile Perú Colombia CO2 CH4 N2O Brazil Argentina % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1%

From national GHGs inventories: Short Lived Pollutant Emissions in SA 1% 6 1% 6 75% 45 75% 45 5% 3 5% 3 25% 15 25% 15 % CH4 NOx CO NMVOC Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Guyana Paraguay Perú Suriname Uruguay Venezuela Total % CH4 NOx CO NMVOC Energy IP Agriculture LULUCF Waste Total

Emissions from the 6 sixties of the SAEMC project Medellín Bogotá Lima Sâo Paulo Santiago Buenos Aires

Integrating local emission inventories into global emissions databases Construction of regional on-road emissions inventory Analysis of local inventories Correlation with appropriate drivers Extrapolation of local information to other cities without inventories Spatial distribution of estimated and extrapolated emissions Verification Modeled (CCAT-BRAMS) and observed concentrations of CO, NO x and O 3

Inventories considered/developed.co Bogotá: 21, 23, 24, 25(2), 27(2), 28, 29 Medellín: 1999, 25, 27, 29.ar.pe.cl Buenos Aires: 197-26 Lima-Callao: 2 21 (mobile), 2, 22 Santiago: 1997, 2, 25(2), 21.br São Paulo: 21 29

Gases & particles NO x CO VOC SO 2 PM 1 CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Other Bogotá 1 1 NE NE Medellín (1) (2) (3) Buenos Aires (5) Lima NE NE NE NE Santiago (4) NE NE NE (5) São Paulo NE NE NE NE (1) Disaggregated in > 3 species (2) TSPM emissions have been also estimated and reported (3) HCl, HF and > 2 chemical elements (4) PM 2.5 emissions have been also estimated and reported (5) NH 3

Stationary Categories Bogotá Medellín Buenos Aires Lima Santiago São Paulo Energy? NE Industry Residential NE? NE Public & Comm. NE? NE Mobile Road transport Civil aviation 1 NE NE NE NE NE Navigation NA NA NE NA NA NA Off-road NE NE NE NE NE Fugitive Oil & gas NE NE NE NE NE NE Dust NE NE NE NE NE Biogenic 1 NE NE NE

Stationary Categories Bogotá Medellín Buenos Aires Lima Santiago São Paulo Energy? NE Industry Residential NE? NE Public & Comm. NE? NE Mobile Road transport Civil aviation 1 NE NE NE NE NE Navigation NA NA NE NA NA NA Off-road NE NE NE NE NE Fugitive Oil & gas NE NE NE NE NE NE Dust NE NE NE NE NE Biogenic 1 NE NE NE

Megacities emissions 16 14 12 Buenos Aires - NO x 25 2 Buenos Aires - CO 1 15 8 6 1 4 2 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 5 PE: pre-euro vehicles (older) EU: euro (news) 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 3 25 2 15 1 5 Buenos Aires - VOC 25 1 9 Buenos Aires - SO 2 2 8 Buenos Aires - PM 1 7 15 6 5 1 4 3 5 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Stationary sources Road transportation

Megacities emissions 16 14 12 1 Buenos Aires - NO x 18 16 14 Medellín- CO 25 2 15 Buenos Aires - CO 8 12 6 4 2 199 1991 1 8 6 4 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 1 5 1998 1999 2 21 22 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 3 25 2 15 1 5 199 25 1 Buenos Aires - VOC Buenos Aires - SO 2 9 Buenos Aires - PM 35 1 2 Medellín- VOCs 8 3 7 15 25 6 2 5 1 4 15 3 5 1 2 5 1 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 199 1991 1992 1993 1998 1994 1999 1995 2 1996 1997 21 1998 22 1999 23 2 21 24 22 25 23 24 26 25 27 26 28 29 199 21 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Stationary sources Road transportation

.ar Argentina: National emissions from fuel combustion Net heating value: country specific, variable NOx emission factors: country specific for electricity generation Emission factors: 1996 IPCC Guidelines

Country and MABA CO 2 emissions 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 CO2 (Gg) Stationary Sources - Biogenic Fuels Mobile Sources - Compress Natural Gas Stationary Sources - Natural Gas Stationary souces - Solid Fuels Mobile Sources - Liquid Fuels Stationary Sources - Liquid Fuels

Overall trend of CO 2 emissions: Fuel consumption by thermal power plants and electricity 6 5 4 3 2 1 197 1972 1974 1976 production from hydro power (TJ) 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 Liquid fuel Coal Natural gas Hydro 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2

National and local emission estimates: Buenos Aires and the rest of Argentina 1% SO 2 Gg 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Stationary Buenos Aires Argentina On-road Buenos Aires Argentina

Activity data drivers: On-road CO & NO x emissions (kg m -2 s -1 ) vs vehicle density (number km -2 )

CO Emissions (x1-6 kg m -2 day -1 ) 2 km grid A: original version of the CCAT-BRAMS emissions preprocesor using data from the global RETRO/EDGAR inventories B: updated version that includes local and extrapolated information into the regional inventories

Reconstruction of activity data

Improving global BB emission estimations 3BEM regional model - Similar approach GFED Longo et al, Atmos. Chem. Phys, 21

CCAT-BRAMS results vs observations (SMOCC field campaign) Smoke season (average) Intense polluted time period 3BEM is used in Prepchem preprocessor (for CCAT BRAMS and WRF-CHEM regional models)

Evaluation of on-road vehicle emission inventories for CO and NO x for Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Santiago, and São Paulo Inventories for 25 and 27 exhibited CO/NO x ratios fairly consistent with observed trend. This consistency was not kept when evaluating total CO and NO x emissions. None of the emission inventories is able to reproduce the observed CO/NO x molar ratios for Santiago. Potential overestimation of NO x emissions by a factor of 2-3 L. Gallardo et al., Atmos Environ, 47 (212) 12 19

Estimating prospective emissions for Brazil (211-23) National fuel consumption projections: using the supply-demand model MESSAGE (model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their environmental impacts) Vehicular fleet: using the estimated fuel consumption, the relationship between the Brazilian vehicular fleet and GDP and other considerations regarding share of biofuels and natural gas conversion National emissions: considering the implementation of the PROCONVE program relative to emission reductions from road transportation Regional emissions M.F. Alonso. Previsão de tempo químico para a América do Sul: impacto relativo das emissões urbanas nas escalas loca e regional. Tese de Doutorado, INPE, Sao José dos Campos (211)

CO On roal vehicles Projected national emissions for Brazil (23 235) NO x VOC Gasoline to Biofuel Emission reduction program (PROCONVE)

Regional emissions for COV and NOX in 27 and 23 (kk m -2 y -1 ) VOC NO x

Commited electricity genertion in Buenos Aires- Power plants End of life of one Steam turbine Revamping of a steam turbine All the units after a revamping Maximum power of all units

Commited electricity generation in Buenos Aires- Power plants Scenario considers constant importation of energy Restrictions in transmission lines Restrictions in distribution system

Commited emissions in Buenos Aires- Residential Gradual introduction of more efficient appliances Improved passive efficiency

South America BC emissions (ACCMIP)

.6.5.4 SA BC emissions Biomass Burning (GFED3) Forest degradation Temperate forest Agricultural waste Savanna and grassland Tropical forest deforestation).3.2.1 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Tg/year

SA BC emissions Biomass Burning GFED vs Deforestation.3 3 BC emissions (Tg year -1 ).2.1 2 1 Deforestation (km 2 year -1 ) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 South America BC emissions from deforestation Deforestation (INPE, 213) Deforestation estimated by INPE using satellite monitoring techniques, based mainly in Landsat images, but in a combination with other remote sensing information to minimize the problem of cloud cover

Final remarks Adequate level of expertise for the development of national and local emission inventories Local inventories are generally incomplete and reported with different degrees of transparency (documentation, uncertainties) Ample space for reconciliations Interaction between inventory communities Different objectives and uses of policy oriented and scientific inventories Validation and verification