30 th August 2015 Monsoon Flooding, 2015 Northern Districts of Bangladesh Aerial Assessment Report Introduction and objectives Reports of flooding in the northern districts of Bangladesh were received from the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre and from partner NGOs from the 25 th August. On 26 th 27 th and 29 th August the MoDMR released a sitrep detailing affected areas and outlining the Government s relief response. On the 28 th August the INGOs released a situation report based on the compilation of data received from partner NGOs in the affected areas. At the suggestion of Christian Aid, it was decided that an aerial assessment of northern districts would be undertaken to increase the level of understanding of the flood situation, particularly in the districts of; Kurigram, Bogra, Sirajgonj, Jamalpur, Gaibanda and Llamonirhat districts. The MAF plane was chartered and interested parties from Government, clusters and INGOs and donors were invited to nominate a team. The objective was to gain an overview of the impact of flooding with a particular focus on the hard to reach chars. In particular those on board hoped to observe: Impact on housing and other buildings Impact on infrastructure (roads, telephone masts, power lines) Impact on agriculture (water inundation, flattened rice crops) Signs of displacement (ie groups of people living in temporary settlements) It was intended that this overview would inform decisions in regard to next steps to be taken by stakeholders in regard to flooding including the need for further assessment and the kind of assessment to be undertaken and any immediate response needs. The aerial assessment team met on the 30 th August 2015 to plan for the flight and developed a checklist, based on global best practice as well as lesson learning from previous assessment flyovers 1. The assessment team would like to acknowledge and thank MAF for facilitating the flyover and providing valuable contextual insights during the course of the flight. Methodology Secondary Data Available secondary data was reviewed. This included; NDRCC SitReps, FFWC reports, map of the area, the INGO Sitrep 2, the JNA flooding secondary data review and previous aerial assessment reports. In addition key pieces of secondary data have been requested; this includes free satellite imagery available from UNOSAT and reports and response plans from key development stakeholders operating in the area affected by the floods; the Chars Livelihood Programme (CLP) and CARE s Shourhado Programme. Route The INGO sitrep was used to select particular unions to fly-over, there was a selection made of some of the most affected and some of the least affected in order to have areas between which comparison could be made. On arrival at the airport is transpired there was some inaccuracy in the coordinates provided to MAF so the number of requested places was further reduced 3. The route selected for the flight was determined in part as per requests and also informed by the pilot s 1 The MAF plane has been used for aerial assessments in 2013 after TS Mahasen and 2014 after monsoon flooding in northern districts. 2 The INGO sitrep is a consolidation of information collected through the INGO Emergency Sub Group. 3 Some of the coordinates were for places in India. This is because we were selecting sites very close to the border. 1
knowledge. 4 The plane flew up the east side of the Jamuna to Kurigram, then west to Gangachara in Rangpur before returning to Dhaka along the west side of the Jamuna. The flying altitude was 650 feet to 800 feet with an average speed of 80 nautical miles. Direct Observation A checklist was finalised by the assessment team on 29 th August, as follows: Damaged housing Marooned houses Roads cut off Embankment s breached Telephone masts and power lines damaged Flattened white crops Water inundation on agricultural land Observations about vehicular transport are their vehicles on major/minor roads Visibility of livestock, are livestock clustered or have grazing line What evidence of agricultural disruption secondary data on regular activities GPS was used to take the coordinates and DSLR to capture the photos. Key informant interview Interviewing the MAF Pilot is essential to the process as MAF pilots fly regularly over the area so are able to compare with recent weeks as well as recent years. Are there any key things to look for to recognise a damaged building? How much wider does the river appear to be from normal at this time of year? Is agricultural/cultivated land more flooded than normal at this time of year? Any changes to riverine transportation that can be observed? Limitations This is an exercise which can give an overall and somewhat anecdotal view of the situation. The use GPS devices helps to lend the exercise more accuracy. 4 The MAF Pilots have been flying in Bangladesh for around 7 years or more and so have a detailed knowledge of the appearance of the country during different seasons and during disaster periods. 2
Ideally a fly-over should be considered as an initial step in an assessment process that will provide a rough estimate of the damage at the ground and could be used to inform the need for further ground-level assessments including whether to trigger JNA or not. A more thorough mobilisation of secondary data could have corroborated findings from the aerial assessment. Assessment Team Shakeb Nabi (Christian Aid), Clody Ayliffe (JNA), Mokit Billah (ECHO), Tanvir Elahi (Muslim Aid), Paul Eastwood (DfID), Mohammad Mainul Hossain (Food Security Cluster) and Kazi Rahman (UNOCHA) participated in the flyover. Overall support and coordination of the process was provided by Damien Joud (Food Security Cluster). Key Findings Affected Areas The mainland (i.e. non Charland) does not appear to be visibly inundated however Chars are inundated / affected. Chars from Gangachara, Kaunia, Pirgachha (Rangpur District), Sundarganj (Gaibanda District, Chilmari and Ulipur (Kurigram District) appear to be affected more than other chars observed. Households in Chilmari (Kurigram), Sundarganj (Gaibandha) sub-districts appear to be impacted, by more inundation which is visibly flooding houses. Damaged Houses More than 90% houses observed appeared not to be flooded. A significant number of these were built on raised plinths, were in the central part of a char or were houses constructed on embankments. It was assumed that the semi-pukka construction on embankments was not recent or related to this specific flooding event. Houses on raised plinths are clustered together in small numbers, surrounded by trees to protect them. Although marooned, surrounded by water, they were accessible by boat. More information is required to know how communities cope when only boat access is possible. It is possible to see if houses themselves are flooded by whether the central area, a kind of courtyard has remained dry. However, it is possible that as waters recede damage will be done to houses. Although most of the houses observed were not inundated, secondary data indicates that more than 40% of the households in the area belong to the extreme poor implying they have few assets and may not own a house at all. It is not possible to visually assess if they were flooded before waters began to recede last week. Although houses were intact in most of the cases but not many people could be seen outside. Further assessment would be required if to understand if this is due to migration or other changes to daily life. One area of spontaneous displacement could be observed during the flight and this was in Sariakandi Upazila, Bogra District. All other embankments were free of recently established shelters. Although many of the embankments in the area have housing built along them, from the air it appears that these shelters were not recently constructed in response to the flooding One of the indicators of water inundation could be whether the cattle were free grazing (which happens when the area is not inundated) or stall fed. Not many cattle were observed as free grazing which indicates that the areas were inundated. Limitations with an aerial overview in relation to assessing housing needs should be taken into account i.e. although the raised plinth houses had obviously not collapsed, it was not possible to see if inundation had affected latrines or water point access. Changes to the access that household residents faced as a result of being marooned (i.e. surrounded by water), of having a greater volume of faster flowing water to cross to access services including schools, markets and medical facilities need to be considered and are not discernible from the fly-over. 3
Figure 1: Marooned and flooded houses Kurigram Figure 2: Marooned houses, Sirajganj Agriculture and Fisheries The situation regarding damaged crops was inconclusive. However, recent flooding experiences has made it clear that the impact on livelihoods rather than lives is significant. Paddy fields appear largely unaffected in most of the areas. It was estimated that 7-10% crop land (mainly rice) was fully inundated from the aerial survey. Only in very low lying lands was inundation of agricultural land be observed. Crop damage is visible in Chilmari, Sundarganj. Most of the crops were submerged but standing and still green in colour. It was difficult to make out whether the crops will be destroyed or if they will recover. No where people could be seen working in the field, is it an indication that the people are waiting for the flood trend and see if the crop survives. There were some examples of flattened paddy fields. The standing jute crop seemed undamaged In the Gangachara area some of the banana gardens are inundated. There will not be any banana crop from the submerged areas. 4
Ponds which were visible were green or black, suggesting that they had not been submerged. However, it would not be possible to make a visual assessment of whether ponds have overflowed, causing damage to the fisheries sector. One of the major challenges will be fodder for livestock. This challenge will be faced in Kurigram, Gaibandha and in some places of Bogra. Dry ground for livestock to stay on may also be a challenge. Figure 3: Crop Damage, Chalmari Figure 4: Crop Damage, Gaibanda Communications and Roads Main high-ways and roads are seen uninterrupted by flood water and vehicles are moving as usual. Minor roads (mainly mud roads) do appear to be inundated with water or difficult to use and most of homesteads are surrounded by flood water 5
There was no evidence of damaged or fallen power lines. There are a number of breached embankments throughout the route, often due to erosion or breaches which took place in the past. Breached embankments were seen in Sariakandi, Bogra area, which could have been a result of the current floods. Community infrastructure such as mosques, schools, community clinics appear to be accessible via roads and water in most of the cases. Many schools could be seen to be operational and children were playing on the school grounds. Figure 5 Partially submerged minor raods, Sadallapur Figure 6: Marooned civic building, Bahadurabad Flood Forecast According flood report by FFWC The Brahmaputra is in rising trend and the Jamuna is in steady state. Both the river systems may likely to rise in next 72 hours. According the FFWC flood report on yesterday (31-08-2015) In the next 48 hours, the overall flood situation in the places of the districts of north, central and north-eastern part of the country may deteriorate. The implications of this are that the flooding viewed from the air during this assessment could worsen over the coming days. 6
Recommendations There is currently no perceived need for a coordinated needs assessment at this time. The situation should be monitored through; GoB SitReps, FFWC reports and NGO/INGO reports. It is recommended that secondary data continues to be monitored and if the rain continues and there are reports of the decline in the situation that the stakeholders review the situation and plan further joint needs assessment activities. Postscript A separate note on lessons learnt and recommendations for future aerial assessments will also be developed. 7