Hockey, like baseball, is a sport. What that means is there is no point spread involved like you have in basketball and football. There is a spread if you bet games on the Puck Line, but I m not sure if there are even any places still offering the puck line. For our purposes we will only be making bets. This might be a bit confusing for some, so let me give an example. Total New York Rangers -115 5.5-110 Boston Bruins +105 5.5-110 In this example, the Rangers are favored. On the they are -115; this means you have to wager $115 to win $100. If you bet a game on the, the team only has to win the game. It doesn t matter by how much they win by, 1 goal or 10 goals, it doesn t matter your bet still wins. On the flip side, the Bruins are +105. This means you would bet $100 to win $105 on Boston. And again, they only have to win the game by a goal. ***For the NHL System we have a radical departure from our normal betting strategies *** First, we are less concerned with Winning %, and more concerned with Return on Investment or Units Won. That s for a couple of reasons. There is no point spread involved. And we do wager frequently on Underdogs, so you can have a lower winning % (in fact you can have a below 50% winning %) and still do quite well betting on hockey. The term Units Won is explained this way: if you are betting $100 a game, and you are +10 units, then you would be up $1,000. At Sports Betting Professor, I recommend using between 2-5% of your starting bankroll for each wager. Fluctuations in your standard bet will most likely cause more damage during the lows than it will help during the highs. Many bettors like to stay away from money line-based sports (such as hockey and baseball) due to the extremes in winning percentages, but they can be very profitable. Betting on the underdog in money line sports may give you a lower won loss record, but the payouts for winners will be so much higher that your profits will increase. For example, let s assume you are a $100 bettor. Say you make 100 bets on underdogs of +130 (this means you are wagering $100 to win $130). If you lose 56 of those bets, that means a loss of $5,600 (56 x $100). If you win 44 bets, you would make a profit of $5,720 (44 x $130). So you would still net $120. Take a look at that again. In the above example you can win only 44% of your games and still make a profit! Is it a huge profit? No it s not, but it s a profit nonetheless and 44% 2
is a ridiculously low winning percentage to still be able to make money at. In the traditional point spread sports, the percentage you need to make money is 52.4%. Most professional handicappers shoot for a win percentage somewhere in the 53-54% range so the Money Line does make a huge difference. The second big difference with the NHL system compared to my other systems is that you will not be doubling up your bets, ala the Bet A, Bet B, Bet C formula. You can get some astronomical bet amounts if you were to carry over in this manner with bets. Hockey is a different animal, and at the end of the day the point is to make $. So with the factor, we re just looking to turn a profit and we re not worried so much with win % due to the fact we ll be frequently betting on Underdogs. We have been tracking these statistics for the last 8 years in the National Hockey League. In the course of our research, we have determined that public opinion plays a large part in the success of our hockey system. In that time span we have collected data on over 7,000 NHL games. That includes playoffs but does not include preseason games. One filter that we utilized was narrowing the sample size to games that have a relatively close line. That means it s limited to games where the opening line is between -140 to +140 on the home team. That might be a bit confusing so let s give a couple examples. The first two are games that DO pass our first parameter: New York Rangers -115 Boston Bruins +105 Boston, the home team, is listed at +105. That falls between + and 140 so we re ok there. Let s look at another one: New York Rangers +125 Boston Bruins -135 with the Money Line factor, we re just looking to turn a profit 3
This time the Bruins are the favorite, listed at -135. This also falls in our desired range and would meet the first eligibility requirement. Now let s take a look at a game that doesn t fit the system. New York Rangers -190 Boston Bruins +175 OK, this time Boston is listed at +175. That means they re a good sized underdog and the number is above +140 so this is not a game we would explore any further. Now we know the opening line is the first filter we need to check. The second is the public betting percentages, so let s take a look at the numbers that returned a positive investment over the past 8 seasons of professional hockey. Betting Percentage Units Won ROI < 45%* +83.8 4.4% < 35% +48.1 5.8% This is how you read the chart. In the above example teams getting less than 35% of the public action have had a 5.8% ROI [Return on Investment] over the period of the study. A quick note on the less than 45% category there was another break in our study of less than 40% that wasn t as profitable. So this category covers teams getting less than 45% but greater than 39% of the action. So let s clarify this 2nd parameter that we re looking at. We want teams that are getting either between 44% and 40% of the betting action, and we also want teams getting less than 35% of the betting action. Ok, so let s show an example of games that would and would not fit the betting system. We ll assume both games pass the first parameter of having the home team s opening line be between -140 and +140. Bet % New York Rangers 38% Boston Bruins 62% This game would NOT fit the system. Neither team has a bet percentage between 40-44%, or less than 35%. How about this one: Bet % New York Rangers 22% Boston Bruins 78% In this case we would be ready to make a play on the Rangers because they re bet % is less than 35%. Now you have the main 2 filters: 1. Look for games with opening lines on the home team between -140 and +140 4
2. Look at the public betting percentages and find teams getting either between 40% and 44% or less than 35% of the betting action. Then make your bet. Now you can get the opening NHL lines just by looking at Pinnacle our sportsbook of choice for accurate line data. Getting the betting % numbers is a bit trickier. For this, you have one of 3 options. 1. Reach out to your contacts that work the lineboards at some of the biggest offshore sportsbooks in the world. Since I did that job for over 8 years, I can do that. Most people can t. 2. Get an account at Sports Insights. Not only do they have betting percentages on every game, they also have the quickest line updates in the world. They re faster than Don Best, faster than G & J, and they re much, much cheaper. This site is a must for every serious gambler, so even if you get my picks I d suggest taking a look. 3. Just rely on me to do the research and check your email inbox for the daily picks updates that s included in your subscription. This is probably the easiest one. 4. Selections are released by 3 PM EST each day. If you purchased this after 3 PM you can expect your first selections the following day (if there are NHL games scheduled). Remember, to be a successful bettor takes discipline and patience. There will be days when no games fit the parameters of the system. That s OK; we re not chasers. Only in maintaining this discipline do we give ourselves the best shot to profit at the end of the season. All the best, Rich Allen Only in maintaining this discipline do we give ourselves the best shot to profit at the end of the season 5