Current developments and prospects of the Greek property market Mitrakos T., Akantziliotou C. and Vlachostergiou V. Real Estate Market Analysis Section Bank of Greece 6-7 October 2014
Outline Characteristics and recent developments of the Greek real estate market Property Prices and rents Transactions Developments in construction activities, employment and investment Financing of the real estate market and financial stress Taxation on property Recent reforms, risks and pending issues Prospects for stabilization and recovery
Characteristics and recent developments in the real estate market in Greece
Specific features of the Greek housing market High rate of home ownership (80%) Low mobility and trading volume over the stock Fragmented construction industry (particularly in the residential market) Difficulties in monitoring the real transaction prices Non-homogeneous product (residential and commercial property) Significant impact of fiscal measures
Residential Property Prices and Growth Rate 114 20 102.2 Residential Property Price Index (2007=100) 94 74 54 34 14 Annual % change of house prices - rhs House Price Index (nominal) - lhs House Price Index (real) - lhs 15 10 65.1 5 57.2 0-5 -10 Annual % Change of house prices -6 Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-15 Cumulated adjustment of -41.6% in real terms and -36.4% in nominal terms since the current financial crisis (2008 Q3-2014 Q2) Source: BoG, data collected from credit institutions
Indices of apartments prices by age and geographical area (Annual average percentage changes) Indices of apartments prices by age and geographical area Annual average percentage changes 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2008 Q3 up to 2014 Q2 All apartments (Greece) 1.7-3.7-4.7-5.5-11.7-10.8-8.5-7.3-36.4 a1. New (up to 5 years old) 2.3-2.0-4.2-5.0-12.1-10.7-7.8-6.1-34.6 a2. Old (5 years old and above) 1.3-4.8-5.0-5.8-11.4-10.8-8.9-8.0-37.5 b1. Athens 0.9-4.6-3.2-6.4-11.8-12.4-10.7-9.6-38.8 b2. Thessaloniki 1.5-6.0-7.4-6.8-13.6-8.9-7.6-5.4-38.5 b3. Other cities 1.8-2.7-5.3-4.1-10.7-10.5-7.8-6.5-34.0 b4. Other areas 3.3-1.9-5.8-4.4-11.6-8.5-5.1-4.4-33.0 c1. Urban areas 1.5-4.3-4.4-5.5-11.8-10.9-9.4-7.8-36.9 Gradual decline in price resilience during the current crisis Stronger decline in the two major urban centers (Athens and Thessaloniki) and older An even greater price reductions based on real estate agents Source: BoG, data collected from credit institutions 1 Data collected from real estate agencies
House price-to to-rent ratio 15 115 110 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Average annual change in the house price index (lhs) Average annual change in the price index of rents (lhs) Price-to-rent ratio (2007=100, rhs) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III*IV* I II III IV I* II* 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 In some extent a correction of overvaluation has already taken place House price-to-rent ratio: -31.9% lower from its peak (2006-Q4) Sources: House Price Index (BoG), Price Index of Rents (ELSTAT)
Construction cost indices of (new) residential buildings (Annual average percentage changes) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Total Cost Materials Cost Labour Cost Categories weights Overall cost index 100.00 Material cost index 56.71 Labour cost index 43.29-4 I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I II III I I II 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Despite the recession, construction costs and particularly construction materials remained positive up to 2012 The high cost of replacement of old residential buildings with new impedes a further decline in prices. Source: ELSTAT
Number of transactions in the real estate market (in thous.) Number of transactions (in thous.) 250 200 150 100 50 166.0 46.0 215.1 68.8 172.9 53.6 167.7 49.2 158.0 44.7 136.0 38.5 Total Greece (lhs) Athens (lhs) Turnover* (rhs) 117.9 32.0 83.7 21.6 57.7 47.6 13.3 11.6 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Percentage 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 *Turnover: Ratio of transactions to stock of housing units (%) Source: ELSTAT (2004-12), BoG estimates (2013)
Real Estate Agencies Survey: : 2009 09 2014 Q1 results Annual percentage changes of residential and commercial property prices Annual % Change in prices 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Offices Retail Warehouses - Industrial Residential Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-25% -30% 2008-2013: Decline in residential property prices on average (y-o-y) by 50% and in commercial properties by approx. 54% (Offices:-53.0%, Retail:-55.1% and Warehouses Industrial:-53.8%). Source: BoG, data collected from real estate agencies
Commercial property market overview BoG commercial property data base Sources: REICs, Credit Institutions, Property Consultants, Developers, Real Estate Agents Data set comprised by prime and secondary commercial properties Coverage: entire Greece Provisional results Cumulative average change (beginning of crisis up to 2013 H2)* OFFICES Market Values ~ 40% Rents ~ 35% Yields ~ 30% RETAIL Market Values ~ 52% Rents ~ 40% Yields ~ 36% LOGISTICS Yields ~ 35% * Provisional data, incorporating REICs and Credit Institutions data
Developments in Construction
Private construction activity (Annual average percentage changes) 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 Number of Building Permits Floor Space of Buildings (in square meters) Volume of Buildings (in cubic meters) Cement Production Volume -3.1-8.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - H1-20.6 1.4 Sharp decline in construction activity during the current crisis An even greater reduction in the Athens area Source: ELSTAT
Employment in construction (thousand people) 450 400 350 300 Family workers Employees Self-employed person without employees Self-employed person with employees 401.8 Employment in Construction 2007-2013 Total employment -57.1 Self-employed person with employees -70.0 Self-employed person without employees -15.6 Employees -65.0 250 200 150 149.6 100 50 0 Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total employment in construction decreases dramatically Source: ELSTAT, Labour Force Survey
Distribution of constructions, average days of employment per month 250 Number of insured individuals (in thous.) 70 Number of constructions (in thous.) 200 203.7 183.3 175.7 190.2 184.5 161.3 60 57.9 58.7 56.6 60.5 58.3 51.7 150 123.8 50 40 43.1 36.3 100 97.4 30 24.6 50 61.5 39.8 32.9 20 10 15.3 12.2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average days of employment per month 16 14 12 13.3 14.5 14.4 14.7 14.6 14.2 13.6 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.8 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IKA-Social Insurance Institute
Total construction and residential investment (at constant prices) as % of GDP and real house prices 18 16 14 Investment in construction as % of GDP Residential (lhs) Construction (lhs) Construction other than residential (lhs) Real House Price Index (2007=100, rhs) 110 100 12 90 10 80 8 6 5.9 5.4 70 4 2 3.4 3.3 2.3 3.6 1.4 4.0 60 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Strong decline in residential investment as % of GDP (2007: 12.4%, 2014 Q2: 1.4%) 50 Sources: House Price Index (BoG, Real house prices deflated with HICP), Residential and Construction Investment, HICP and GDP (ELSTAT)
Financing of the real estate market and financial stress
Domestic MFIs credit to households 40 Year Total Loans Housing Loans % Change y-o-y 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Total Loans Housing Loans 2005 31.4 33.5 2006 25.4 25.9 2007 22.2 21.5 2008 12.6 11.2 2009 3.1 3.7 2010-1.2-0.3 2011-3.9-2.9 2012-3.8-3.4 2013-3.5-3.3 2014 Aug -2.9-3.0 0-5 -10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Continuous deceleration of credit expansion to households The rate of decline in the outstanding balances of housing loans slowed down after 2013 Reluctant house buyers and cautious banks to extend new mortgages Source: BoG
Financial stress and high rate of non-performing loans 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 6.3 5.4 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.6 34.1 Total loans 31.9 Housing loans 24.5 26.1 27.4 21.4 16.0 14.9 10.4 10.0 7.7 7.4 5.0 5.3 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 Continuous increase in households financial stress during the current crisis Source: BoG
Taxation on immovable property
Tax revenues on immovable property (in milllions of euro) 3500 (in millions of euro) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Tax revenues on property transactions Total tax revenues on property 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: Ministry of Finance General Accounting Office (MoF-GLK), * 2014 forecast, BoG estimates (excl. 2 instalments of ENFIA )
Taxes on immovable property as a % of GDP (Year: 2012) 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Source: OECD (data for 2012 and * indicates data for 2011) 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 United Kingdom France Belgium Canada United States Israel Korea Italy Luxembourg Japan Iceland Australia* New Zealand Spain Switzerland Greece Ireland Denmark OECD-Total* Netherlands* Portugal Norway Finland Poland* Turkey Sweden Germany Hungary Chile Slovenia Austria Czech Republic Slovak Republic Estonia Mexico*
Taxes on immovable property as a % of GDP in the European Union (Year: 2012) 2.1 1.4 Other Source: DG Taxation and Customs Union and Eurostat
Greece, EU-28 and a d EA-18E 18: : Recurrent taxes of properties as % of Total Taxation 4.5 4.0 Greece EU-28 EA-18 3.8 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.2 2.6 3 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.9 0.8 1.3 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: DG Taxation and Customs Union and Eurostat EU28 and EA-18: weighted average
In a few words.. BoG: Residential Property Prices (2008Q3-2014Q2) -36.4% BoG - Real Estate Agencies: Residential Property Prices (2008-2013) -50.0% BoG: House price-to-rent ratio: (2006Q4-2014Q2) -31.9% ELSTAT: Number of transactions in real estate market (2005-2012) -78.4% ELSTAT: Private construction activity Volume of Buildings (m 3 ) (2005-2013) -89.0% ELSTAT: Employment in construction Self-employed person with employees (2007-2013) -70.0% IKA: Employment in construction Number of insured individuals (2006-2013) -83.0% ELSTAT: Production Index in Construction (2008-2013) -70.2% ELSTAT: Residential investment (2007-2013) -72.2%
Recent reforms, risks and pending issues (1/2) Negative short-term expectations remain (economic, employment, taxation, etc.) despite the recent improvement in business expectations Low number of property transactions and heavy taxation on property ownership From transfer to recurrent taxes on properties Red tape in the Greek real estate market is an additional factor that discourage demand Notable efforts for the development of public real estate assets but revenues remained low. Rent prices decline and renegotiations of lease contracts Cautiousness in developing new investment projects and general shift to more affordable commercial properties Expectations of further adjustment in prices
Recent reforms, risks and pending issues (2/2) Important pending issues: prohibition of auctions for primary residence? requirement to disclose the origin of the funds to purchase/build real estate property? urban planning regulations? land uses? etc adjustment of objective values? Stress test and npls
Prospects for stabilization and recovery The recovery of the property market is linked directly to: improving the expectations reducing the prevailing uncertainty reducing the tax burden and establishing a constant real estate taxation system financing the market by the banking system the overall prospects for dealing with the problems of the Greek economy (fiscal, structural, etc.)
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